前言： 家人们，作为常年关注国际时政的观察者，瑞银一份"情况不妙"的报告显示，76万年度裁员、10月单月 15.7万岗位消失，这是2009年金融危机以来的最高纪录！ 曾经的美国经济韧性支柱，如今成了失业重灾区，大企业疯狂瘦身、求职者四处碰壁，这波危机会波及 全球吗？ 数据断层下的真相 美国联邦政府停摆40多天的后遗症，终究在劳动力市场爆发了，美国劳工统计局前局长埃里卡・格罗申 曾形容，没有关键官方数据的日子里，经济学家们只能"盲飞"。 而瑞银这份《美国经济周报》的发布，直接揭开了被滞后数据掩盖的真实危机。 行业权威机构的统计显示，10月美国企业宣布裁员15.7万人，这一数字创下2020年7月以来的月度峰 值。 从全年维度看，截至10月的经季节性调整裁员人数已高达76万，不仅远超2024年同期，更直接刷新15年 以来的最高纪录。 WARN通知作为企业裁员前的法定告知文件，其数量飙升意味着很多裁员并非临时决策，而是企业基于 长期发展的战略调整。 即便被视为就业数据"黄金标准"的商业就业动态数据，也显示当前岗位流失速度已追上甚至超过疫情前 水平，此前市场普遍认可的"低裁员"说法，早已不攻自破。 其中科技和仓储行业受 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. job market is showing signs of cooling, with nearly 950,000 layoffs announced by companies as of September, the highest level for this period since 2020 [1][3] - Major companies like Starbucks, Amazon, Target, and Southwest Airlines have announced significant layoffs, raising concerns that these actions may signal broader economic issues rather than isolated cost-cutting measures [1][2] Layoff Trends - Government sectors have been heavily impacted, with nearly 300,000 positions cut this year [3] - The tech and retail industries are also experiencing significant layoffs, with Amazon attributing 14,000 job cuts to artificial intelligence [3] - The total number of layoffs in the first nine months of this year exceeds the total for any complete year since 2009, excluding the pandemic year [3][4] Economic Concerns - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted a "very slow cooling" of the labor market, but there is heightened vigilance regarding potential further deterioration [4] - Economists are particularly concerned if initial unemployment claims remain at or exceed 260,000, compared to the previous range of 220,000 to 240,000 [4] Structural Changes in Labor Market - The U.S. labor market is undergoing a structural shift from a "low hiring, low firing" model to a more aggressive approach to layoffs [5][6] - Many companies are now more willing to cut jobs, with over 60% of executives in a LinkedIn survey indicating that AI will take over tasks currently performed by junior employees [6] Cost Management Strategies - Companies are absorbing tariff costs rather than passing them onto consumers, leading to labor cost reductions to protect profits [6]

北京时间周四（6月19日）凌晨， 美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至 4.50%之间不变，这是该行连续第四次决定维持利率不变。 美联储6月宣布继续"按兵不动",将联邦基金利率 目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%不变、与市场预期一 致,这也是美联储连续第四次会议维持利率不变。 0 美联储决议声明变动 变动向 变动前 经济前景有关的 | 全部落 | 经济前景有关的 不确定性进一步 FFIEL 不确定性已经减 增加 弱,但仍然偏高。 3 2.5 2.5 2 1 75 1.5 1 0 25 0.5 0 数据来源:美联储 委员会关注其双 重使命(即就业与 物价稳定)面临 的双向风险,并 判定" 失业率上 升和通胀上升的 风险已经增加"。 失业率近几个月 已经企稳于低位。 删除后半句 -- 并判定" 失业率 上升和通胀上升 的风险已经增加"。 失业率仍低。 内部设置 全票通过。堪萨 斯联储主席施密 德出席会议并投 票,卡什卡利没 有再以替补成员 身份在本次会议 中投票。 | 点阵图 For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, June 18, 2025 Figure 2. FOMC pa ...