2026.01.08 本文字数：2123，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 作为今年首个重磅经济数据，随着本周五去年12月非农报告的揭晓，投资者将结束假日模式正式迎接 2026年新行情。数据显示，年末美国就业市场出现部分回暖，但并未完全摆脱困境。联邦基金利率期货 定价显示，今年美联储首次降息节点指向二季度，如果非农不及市场预期，美联储或将选择提前下调利 率稳定经济。 数据喜忧参半 美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）发布的数据显示，2025年最后一个月，美国企业新增就业岗位4.1万 个，疲软的劳动力市场在步入新一年之际出现小幅改善。虽然岗位止跌回升，数据依然不及机构预期的 新增4.8万。与此同时，招聘放缓的影响还体现在员工薪资议价能力的下降上。留任员工的薪资同比涨 幅为4.4%，与疫情以来的最低水平持平。而在几年前，这一同比涨幅曾一度飙升至7.8%的高位。 值得注意的是，新增岗位高度集中于少数几个领域，主要是医疗保健机构、餐饮及酒店行业。这种就业 增长缺乏行业普遍性的现象，凸显出过去一年间美国劳动力市场的疲软程度。 就业市场的景气程度是美联储权衡今年是否再次降息的最大考量因素。自2025年春季以来，美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed signals from the U.S. labor market as it enters 2026, highlighting a slight recovery in employment but ongoing concerns about economic stability and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][7]. Labor Market Data - In December 2025, U.S. businesses added 41,000 jobs, which was below the expected 48,000, indicating a weak labor market [4][5]. - Wage growth for retained employees was stagnant at 4.4%, matching the lowest level since the pandemic, down from a peak of 7.8% in previous years [5]. - Job growth was concentrated in a few sectors, particularly healthcare and hospitality, reflecting a lack of broad-based recovery in the labor market [5]. Employment Trends - The ADP report indicated that the labor market's deterioration may be stabilizing, with two out of the last three months showing job growth [5]. - The JOLTS report revealed a decline in job openings from nearly 7.5 million in October to about 7.1 million in November, with the job vacancy rate dropping from 4.5% to 4.3% [6]. - The number of involuntary job losses remained stable, with approximately 1.7 million people unemployed in November, down from 1.9 million in October [6]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The upcoming non-farm payroll data on January 9 is expected to significantly influence market direction, with the last reported non-farm job increase of 64,000 and an unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest in over four years [8]. - The Federal Reserve's recent meetings have shown a tendency to lower interest rates due to concerns about the weak labor market, with a nearly 50% probability of a 25 basis point cut in March [8][9]. - Despite a generally optimistic economic outlook for 2026, there are concerns about stagnant inflation and a weakening labor market, which could lead to further adjustments in monetary policy [9][10]. Economic Perspectives - Economists express caution regarding the labor market, noting that the current job growth is slowing and wage pressures are easing, which may indicate underlying economic stress rather than confidence in future prospects [9][10]. - The "low hiring, low firing" model in the labor market is seen as unsustainable, with potential consumer spending cuts leading to increased layoffs if economic conditions worsen [10].

就业市场的景气程度是美联储权衡今年是否再次降息的最大考量因素。自2025年春季以来，美国企业招 聘步伐已大幅放缓，就业人数甚至出现了疫情以来的首次下降。最新ADP报告表明，劳动力市场的恶化 态势或已有所缓解 ——过去三个月中，有两个月的就业人数实现增长。 去年夏季以来，裁员规模维持低位本是积极信号，但另一方面，绝大多数企业都已暂停扩招。经济学家 将这种现象称为 "低招聘、低裁员"的劳动力市场格局。目前尚无明显迹象表明，企业招聘将出现大幅 回升。作为全美最大的薪资处理机构，ADP首席经济学家理查森（Nera Richardson）表示："当前就业 市场仍有一定新增岗位，且裁员规模并未扩大，但整体来看，就业市场仍在寻找企稳的支点。" 通常情况下，ADP就业报告仅被视为美国劳动力市场的二线参考指标；但由于此前数月美国政府停摆导 致官方非农就业报告发布延迟，ADP 报告的重要性有所提升。 美国劳工部当天公布的月度职位空缺与劳动力流动调查报告（JOLTS）显示，去年11月美国职位空缺数 与雇佣人数双双下降。职位空缺数从10月的近750万个降至约710万个，职位空缺率也从一个月前的 4.5%回落至4.3%。雇佣市场同样出 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储古尔斯比：低招聘、低裁员带来的不确定性多于经济放缓。 ...

知名经济学家马克・赞迪近期开始担忧劳动力市场走弱以及潜在的经济衰退风险。 在周三发布的《财富》杂志专访中，赞迪表示，许多美国人早已处于 "财务边缘"。 他称，若裁员速度加快，那么 "无疑会引发就业衰退"。 最新数据显示，失业率自年初以来持续小幅攀升，从 1 月的 4.0% 升至 9 月的 4.4%，创下四年新高，这 一数据意味着更多美国人求职却未能成功入职。20 至 24 岁的年轻劳动者失业率更是高达 9.2%，是整 体失业率的两倍多。 不过，美国经济也存在一个积极信号：美国独立企业联合会发布的另一项调查显示，11 月小型企业信 心指数小幅回升，更多雇主表示计划在明年年初招聘员工。 责任编辑：郭明煜 知名经济学家马克・赞迪近期开始担忧劳动力市场走弱以及潜在的经济衰退风险。 在周三发布的《财富》杂志专访中，赞迪表示，许多美国人早已处于 "财务边缘"。 赞迪指出，劳动力市场的放缓始于今年 4 月唐纳德・特朗普总统推出全球两位数关税政策之后。他 说："如果观察就业增长真正陷入停滞的时间点，会发现就在'解放日'之后不久。" 周二发布的最新职位空缺与劳动力流动调查报告（JOLTS）显示，10 月的裁员率从 9 月的 1 ...

Group 1 - A report from UBS indicates a significant rise in layoffs, with 760,000 annual job cuts and 157,000 jobs lost in October alone, marking the highest monthly figure since the 2009 financial crisis [1][4] - The technology and warehousing sectors are experiencing the most severe impacts, with automation and AI leading to the disappearance of traditional jobs [6][8] - Major companies are making substantial layoffs, including Amazon cutting 14,000 positions and UPS laying off 48,000 employees over the past year, reflecting a deteriorating market environment [6][8] Group 2 - The number of WARN notifications, which are legally required notices before layoffs, has surged, indicating that many layoffs are strategic rather than temporary decisions [8] - Current job loss rates have reached levels comparable to or exceeding those before the pandemic, contradicting previous beliefs about low layoffs [8][10] - The private sector is seeing an average monthly job loss of 36,000 positions, with the overall unemployment rate rising to its highest point since 2021 [10][14] Group 3 - Over 800,000 individuals have exited the labor market, yet many still wish to work, highlighting a mismatch between available jobs and suitable employment opportunities [12][14] - Job vacancy data shows a decline, with Indeed.com reporting the lowest number of job postings since 2021, suggesting that many advertised positions may not reflect genuine hiring intentions [12][14] - The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, has risen to 8.1%, indicating a growing issue of underemployment [14] Group 4 - Consumer confidence has been severely impacted, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index dropping to 50.3, close to historical lows [18] - The holiday hiring outlook is bleak, with only 400,000 seasonal jobs announced in September and October, significantly lower than pre-pandemic averages [16][18] - Small businesses are struggling under inflation and labor market instability, leading to a lack of hiring and production expansion [20] Group 5 - Disagreements within the Federal Reserve are increasing regarding the state of the labor market, with some officials now questioning the previously held belief of a "low layoff" environment [22][23] - UBS warns that if layoffs continue and hiring slows, the labor market will face a more pronounced contraction, which could adversely affect consumer spending and overall economic recovery [25][27] - The stability of the labor market is crucial for economic recovery, and any disruption could lead to unforeseen consequences for the broader economy [27]

Core Insights - The U.S. job market is showing signs of cooling, with nearly 950,000 layoffs announced by companies as of September, the highest level for this period since 2020 [1][3] - Major companies like Starbucks, Amazon, Target, and Southwest Airlines have announced significant layoffs, raising concerns that these actions may signal broader economic issues rather than isolated cost-cutting measures [1][2] Layoff Trends - Government sectors have been heavily impacted, with nearly 300,000 positions cut this year [3] - The tech and retail industries are also experiencing significant layoffs, with Amazon attributing 14,000 job cuts to artificial intelligence [3] - The total number of layoffs in the first nine months of this year exceeds the total for any complete year since 2009, excluding the pandemic year [3][4] Economic Concerns - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted a "very slow cooling" of the labor market, but there is heightened vigilance regarding potential further deterioration [4] - Economists are particularly concerned if initial unemployment claims remain at or exceed 260,000, compared to the previous range of 220,000 to 240,000 [4] Structural Changes in Labor Market - The U.S. labor market is undergoing a structural shift from a "low hiring, low firing" model to a more aggressive approach to layoffs [5][6] - Many companies are now more willing to cut jobs, with over 60% of executives in a LinkedIn survey indicating that AI will take over tasks currently performed by junior employees [6] Cost Management Strategies - Companies are absorbing tariff costs rather than passing them onto consumers, leading to labor cost reductions to protect profits [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [1][3]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's statement indicates that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has increased, although it remains relatively high [4]. - The committee is focused on its dual mandate of employment and price stability, noting that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased, despite the unemployment rate stabilizing at low levels [6][8]. Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has committed to maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% and will carefully assess upcoming data and changes in the economic outlook before making further adjustments [22][24]. - The FOMC is also continuing to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities to support maximum employment and return inflation to the 2% target [24]. Economic Projections - The FOMC's economic projections indicate a downward revision in GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, compared to previous projections [25]. - Unemployment rate expectations have been adjusted upward to 4.5% for 2025 and 2026, and 4.4% for 2027 [26]. - Inflation projections have been raised, with PCE inflation expected to be 3.0% in 2025, 2.4% in 2026, and 2.1% in 2027, all above the Fed's 2% target [26]. Interest Rate Forecasts - The dot plot indicates that the median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2024 is between 3.75% and 4.00%, suggesting a potential 50 basis points cut from current levels [28]. - There is a notable division among policymakers regarding interest rate cuts, with some expecting at least two cuts this year, while others anticipate no changes [31]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasized the need for more information regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy, noting that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate [32][34]. - Powell highlighted that the effects of tariffs on consumer prices are expected to become more pronounced in the coming months, particularly in categories like personal computers and audiovisual equipment [34].