Deposit Trends - In July, household deposits decreased by 1100 billion (1.1 trillion) RMB, a year-on-year increase of 780 billion (0.78 trillion) RMB [1][2] - Corporate deposits decreased by 1500 billion (1.5 trillion) RMB in July, a year-on-year decrease of 320.9 billion RMB [1] - Non-bank deposits increased by 2100 billion (2.1 trillion) RMB in July, a year-on-year increase of 1400 billion (1.4 trillion) RMB [1][2] - Government deposits increased by 861.7 billion RMB in July, a year-on-year increase of 358.2 billion RMB [1] - The shift of deposits from residents to non-bank institutions is evident [1][2] Market Implications - Historically, a surge in non-bank deposits often reflects a trend of residents moving savings into the stock market [1] - Increased non-bank deposits are associated with residents directly entering the market via bank-securities transfers and indirectly via investments in equity funds and wealth management products [1][2] - Historically, significant year-on-year increases in non-bank deposits have corresponded with surges in new account openings and rising margin loan balances, often accompanied by positive stock market performance [1] Monetary Environment - The growth of social financing (TSF) in July was supported by government bonds, with the rolling year-on-year growth rate of new TSF continuing to rise [2] - The structure of social financing is relatively weak, with slight declines in short-term and medium-to-long-term loans to both residents and enterprises, indicating relatively sluggish demand for real economy credit [2] - With limited economic activity, resident deposits continue to be activated, with M1 growth continuing to rise in July while the M2-M1 spread continues to narrow [2] - As deposit rates continue to fall this year, coupled with continued improvement in stock market profitability, resident deposits are gradually flowing into the capital market to seek higher returns, and resident investment behavior is showing a gradual trend of becoming more active [2]

关于4月当月住户存款减少1.39万亿元，第一财经记者查阅2024年数据发现，2024年第一季度住户存款当年新增额8.56万亿元； 前4个月增加6.71万亿元，即去年4月当月，住户存款减少1.85万亿元。当年也有不少业内人士分析，这主要是季节性因素导致 的"常规"波动，至6月末，这一数字会再度回升。 人民币存款中的住户存款已达约160万亿元的规模。第一财经梳理历年数据发现，2016年，住户存款规模为59.78万亿元；8年多 来，住户存款规模增加了近100万亿元。 不过，从历年数据来看，虽然住户存款占比以及规模不断增加，但住户存款规模增速近两年略有放缓：2022年住户存款增速达 到17.4%的高点后，2023年回落至13.8%，2024年再次放缓至10.4%，今年第一季度为10.3%。 当前外部冲击影响加大，世界经济增长动能不足，我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固的背景下，居民储蓄、消 费、投资结构有哪些新动向？ "近年来，国内消费增速有所放缓，但在政策引导与市场机制的双重作用下，消费市场活力正逐步释放，增速呈现稳步回升态 势，展现出复苏向好的积极信号。" 《2025年第一季度货币政策报告》中一篇题为《持 ...