供应减量预期
Search documents
LPG:地缘不确定性较高,丙烯,成本端地缘扰动,供应存减量预期
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 03:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of LPG and propylene, including price movements, trading volumes, open interest, and industry operating rates. It also provides market information such as CP paper prices and domestic device maintenance plans, suggesting that the cost side of propylene is affected by geopolitical factors and there is an expectation of supply reduction. 3. Summary by Directory **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Market** - **LPG (PG)**: On March 16, 2026, the 2604 contract had a closing price of 5,734 with a daily increase of 1.60%, and a night - session closing price of 5,751 with a night - session increase of 0.37%. Trading volumes and open interest showed various changes. - **Propylene (PL)**: The 2604 contract had a closing price of 8,169 with a daily increase of 3.85%, and a night - session closing price of 8,263 with a night - session increase of 1.15%. Trading volumes and open interest also changed [1]. - **Spot Market** - **LPG (PG)**: Prices in different regions such as Shandong, East China, and South China showed different degrees of change. For example, Shandong civil LPG was priced at 5,550, down 184 from the previous day, and the main contract basis was 227, down 320 from the previous day. - **Propylene (PL)**: East China was priced at 8,350, unchanged from the previous day, and the main contract basis was 8, down 288 from the previous day [1]. - **Industry Operating Rates** - PDH operating rate was 63.23%, down 1.7 from the previous week; alkylation operating rate was 37.2%, unchanged; MTBE operating rate was 68.94%, up 1.22 from the previous week [1]. - **LPG Shipment Volume** - Global LPG shipments on March 15, 2026, were 12.3 tons, down 4.5 from the previous day; Asian shipments were 4.9 tons, down 2.3 from the previous day. Middle - East global shipments were 0.8 tons, unchanged from the previous day; Asian shipments were 0.8 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1]. **Trend Intensity** - LPG trend intensity: 1; propylene trend intensity: 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]. **Market Information** - **CP Paper Prices**: On March 13, 2026 (Singapore closing time), the April CP paper price for propane was 578 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; butane was 572 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton. The May CP paper price for propane was 586 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Some maintenance start times are from 2023 to 2026, and some end times are still to be determined [7]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many factories such as Rizhao (Zhonghai), Shangneng Petrochemical, and Dongchen Petrochemical have device maintenance plans, with different start and end times and loss amounts [7].
LPG:地缘不确定性较高,丙烯:成本端地缘扰动,供应存减量预期
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 02:31
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the propylene market, highlighting cost - side geopolitical disturbances and expected supply reduction. It also provides detailed data on the fundamentals of LPG and propylene [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking a. Futures Market - For LPG (PG), on March 11, 2026, the 2604 contract had a closing price of 5,447 with a daily increase of 3.32% and a night - session closing price of 5,624 with a night - session increase of 3.25%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 5,288 with a daily increase of 3.28% and a night - session closing price of 5,450 with a night - session increase of 3.06%. The 2606 contract had a closing price of 5,136 with a daily increase of 2.51% and a night - session closing price of 5,290 with a night - session increase of 3.00%. - For propylene (PL), the 2604 contract had a closing price of 7,954 with a daily increase of 6.19% and a night - session closing price of 8,375 with a night - session increase of 5.29%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 7,812 with a daily increase of 4.54% and a night - session closing price of 8,143 with a night - session increase of 4.24%. The 2606 contract had a closing price of 7,523 with a daily increase of 4.53% and a night - session closing price of 7,734 with a night - session increase of 2.80% [1] b. Spot Market - For LPG, the Shandong civil price was 5,030, down 1,390 from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of - 417, down 1,565. The East China import price was 6,920, unchanged from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of 1,573, down 175. - For propylene, the Shandong price was 8,325, down 475 from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of 513, down 814. The East China price was 8,700, down 175 from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of 888, down 514 [1] c. Industrial Chain Operating Rates - As of March 6, 2026, the PDH operating rate was 64.93, up 1.7 from the previous week. The alkylation operating rate was 37.2, down 1.99 from the previous day. The MTBE operating rate was 67.72, up 0.5 from the previous week [1] d. LPG Shipment Volumes - From the United States on March 11, 2026, the global shipment volume was 30.3 (in ten thousand tons), up 16.5 from the previous day. The Asian shipment volume was 19.5, up 15.1 from the previous day, and the Chinese shipment volume was 4.7, up 4.7 from the previous day. - From the Middle East, all shipment volumes to various regions were 0 on March 11, 2026 [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 1, and the trend intensity of propylene is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5] 3. Market Information - On March 11, 2026 (Singapore closing time), the April CP paper - cargo price for propane was 572 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the butane price was also 572 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The May CP paper - cargo price for propane was 569 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [6] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans. For example, Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd.'s PDH device with a capacity of 15 started maintenance on May 12, 2023, and the end time is to be determined. - There are also domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans. For example, Shangneng Petrochemical in Shandong had a full - plant maintenance from February 5, 2026, to March 5, 2026, with a normal production volume of 120 and a loss volume of 120 [7]
地缘影响炼厂降负,供应端减量预期提振价格
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-04 03:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, have led to concerns about the supply of raw materials such as crude oil and LPG. This has caused domestic olefin plants to potentially reduce their production, leading to an expected decrease in supply and an increase in polyolefin prices [3]. - For PE, in 2025, China imported 1.13 million tons of PE from Iran, accounting for 8.4%. The supply from other Middle - Eastern countries is also mainly non - standard products. The price increase may be led by non - standard products HD and LD, and then affect the supply and consumption of HD, LLD, and LD. In the short term, geopolitical disturbances will continue to drive up plastic prices [3]. - For PP, the impact of the Iranian situation on overseas PP supply is relatively small. The price increase is mainly driven by cost factors. The deepening loss of PDH production profit may lead to an extended peak of PDH maintenance, and the expected reduction in supply due to the defensive reduction of olefin plants also supports the PP price [4]. - The recommended strategy is to cautiously buy LLDPE and PP on dips for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7,200 yuan/ton (+209), the closing price of the PP main contract is 7,223 yuan/ton (+225), the LL North China spot price is 7,000 yuan/ton (+350), the LL East China spot price is 7,100 yuan/ton (+300), the PP East China spot price is 7,030 yuan/ton (+330), the LL North China basis is - 200 yuan/ton (+141), the LL East China basis is - 100 yuan/ton (+91), and the PP East China basis is - 193 yuan/ton (+105) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-0.4%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is - 681.6 yuan/ton (-126.8), the PP oil - based production profit is - 1,021.6 yuan/ton (-126.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 2,156.9 yuan/ton (-1,506.5) [1]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is 3.4 yuan/ton (+260.0), the PP import profit is - 385.5 yuan/ton (+70.0), and the PP export profit is - 68.5 US dollars/ton (-9.0) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 10.1% (-14.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 24.7% (+4.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 29.3% (+5.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 47.7% (+4.9%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the supply of raw materials. Although the planned maintenance of PE upstream in March - April is still relatively small, attention should be paid to the extent of production reduction due to raw material supply. The inventory of upstream and intermediate traders has accumulated rapidly after the Spring Festival. The downstream of PE is gradually resuming work slowly, and the current demand is limited. In the short term, geopolitical disturbances will continue to drive up plastic prices [3]. - **PP**: The impact of the Iranian situation on overseas PP supply is small. The price increase is mainly driven by cost. The deepening loss of PDH production profit may lead to an extended peak of PDH maintenance, and the expected reduction in supply due to the defensive reduction of olefin plants also supports the PP price. The downstream is gradually resuming work slowly, and the inventory of intermediate traders has accumulated [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously buy LLDPE and PP on dips for hedging. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided. - **Cross - variety**: No strategy provided.