当中美在10月30日宣布互减关税，全球松了一口气时，欧洲却乱成了一锅粥。 英国《金融时报》一针见血："中国正成为欧洲的新父母"——这话听起来荒谬，但看看荷兰的狼狈样，竟有几分道理！ 荷兰跳过谈判直接抢钱，活脱脱一副"贸易流氓"嘴脸！更讽刺的是，它敢这么横，全靠背后美国撑腰。 结果中美关税战一缓和，美国当场"卖队友"，荷兰瞬间成了孤家寡人。 前不久，荷兰政府悍然接管中国企业安世半导体，理由荒唐至极：从"技术转移"到"保护就业"，三天换一套说辞。 可真相呢？安世本就是中资闻泰科技的子公司，资产调配权在法律上无可争议。 欧洲曾傲慢地以为"中国离不开我们的高端技术"，可现实啪啪打脸：中国的稀土、芯片、新能源供应链早已卡住欧洲的喉咙。 冷战结束后，欧洲躺在"美国安保+中国市场"的温床上醉生梦死。 荷兰的鲁莽引爆了欧洲汽车业大地震——宝马、大众生产线停摆，德国沃尔夫斯堡的工厂直接瘫痪。 为什么？因为安世手握全球近一半基础芯片份额，中国一掐供应，欧洲连方向盘都造不出来！ 德国军费常年不达标，法国航母锈迹斑斑，却敢挥霍高福利装"文明灯塔"。 美国一边吸血盟友，一边故意纵容欧洲"去工业化"——没有独立防务和完整产业链，欧洲不过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is not the most tense in Sino-U.S. relations, but it marks a turning point in economic and trade relations, with China shifting from patient restraint to clear countermeasures [3] Economic and Trade Relations - The U.S. has historically held a dominant position in global trade, but has recently deviated from the rules it once advocated, leading to unilateral trade measures [4] - The trade relationship has seen ongoing tensions, with both cooperation and friction in various sectors, influenced by each side's understanding of sensitive industries [5][7] Countermeasures - China has begun implementing strong countermeasures, including export controls on rare earth materials and high-performance lithium batteries, as well as special port fees on U.S. vessels [11][12] - The U.S. has responded with tariffs and restrictions, indicating a tit-for-tat escalation in trade tensions [15] Impact on Supply Chains - China's export controls on rare earths and lithium batteries could significantly impact U.S. supply chains, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and energy storage [13] - The U.S. is aware of the potential repercussions of its actions, as they could also harm its own industries [23] Future Outlook - Both countries are engaged in ongoing negotiations to manage their differences, with a focus on avoiding further escalation [16] - The relationship is characterized by a complex interdependence, making complete decoupling unlikely despite rising tensions [22][25] - China's long-term strategy emphasizes cooperation and mutual benefit, contrasting with the U.S. approach of prioritizing its own interests [26]

有制服他人的能力，就能掌握主动权。被他人所控制，就不能掌控自己的命运。 2025年并非中美关系史上最紧张的年份。这一年两国沟通畅顺，政治和军事上也没有剑拔弩张。但在经 贸领域，却是一波未平一波又起、始终不得歇的一年。 这一年，或许会成为两国经贸关系的一个转折点，即中方开始从耐心克制走向明确反制，从"跟随式对 等反制"走向"关键供应链反制"。 古代典籍《鬼谷子》中说，"道贵制人，不贵制于人也；制人者握权，制于人者失命。"强调主动权的重 要性。 大历史的背景 美国作为全球最大经济体、最大市场和金融、科技、军事等方面的超强国，在全球经贸领域一直处于制 人者的地位。 中方的基本态度是，经贸关系的本质是互利共赢，"合则两利，斗则俱伤"；有分歧和摩擦，可以磋商谈 判，寻找解决方案。中方很少主动先出招，其策略更像是对方策略的一种镜像——谈，敞开大门，打， 奉陪到底；人不犯我，我不犯人；人若犯我，我必犯人。 5月在日内瓦，6月在伦敦，7月在斯德哥尔摩，9月在马德里，中美双方举行了四轮经贸会谈，谈出了不 少共识，避免了冲突升级。但也看得出，合作的根基并不很牢，一直存在磕磕绊绊，呈现出一种且行且 缠斗的状态。 1947年的关贸总 ...