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别侥幸!关税引发的通胀只是暂时被“藏”起来了
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-15 09:53
Core Insights - The increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. is not fully reflected in consumer prices due to inventory buildup in warehouses and distribution centers, which is a result of importers rushing to stock up to avoid tariffs [1][4] - Retailers are experiencing a differentiated peak season as they have stocked up earlier than usual, leading to expanded warehouse capacity [1][4] - The logistics industry is facing rising costs associated with inventory management and transportation, which may or may not be passed on to consumers [2][3] Group 1: Inventory and Supply Chain Dynamics - Logistics experts indicate that the current price increases are "hidden" in the supply chain, particularly in warehouses, and have not yet reached consumers [1] - The Logistics Managers' Index author notes that the increase in inventory is linked to tariff-related price hikes that have not fully materialized [1] - Retailers typically see inventory peak around mid-October, but this year’s early stocking has led to a different inventory dynamic [1] Group 2: Holiday Season and Consumer Behavior - C.H. Robinson's global freight president mentions that holiday season stocking is occurring two to three months earlier than last year, but freight volumes are not as strong [2] - The demand for flexible warehousing has increased among importers and distributors to manage fourth-quarter inventory effectively [4] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and overall consumer confidence has resulted in lower inventory levels for many retailers [4] Group 3: Tariff Impacts and Market Adjustments - The changing tariff landscape is affecting supply chains, with Vietnam benefiting from the "China+1" strategy but facing high transshipment fees [7] - There is a notable shift in shipping patterns, with more goods being routed through Mexico and Southeast Asia, although overall freight volumes from Asia to the U.S. remain stable [7] - Consumer reactions to potential price increases due to supply chain issues are uncertain, with lingering effects from past inflation impacting consumer confidence [8]