美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔即将发表可能是他迄今为止最重要的讲话——就在几天前，他的一位同事因涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈而 受到起诉威胁。 每年，美联储主席都会在堪萨斯城联邦储备银行于怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔为世界各国央行行长举办的年度经济研讨会上发表 备受期待的演讲。这场演讲旨在让投资者了解未来几个月的货币政策走向。 但今年的讲话背景截然不同。几个月来，美联储一直遭受着唐纳德·特朗普总统前所未有的全面攻击，他不仅对鲍威尔进行 了一系列人身攻击，并扬言要解雇他，现在还试图罢免前总统乔·拜登任命的美联储理事丽莎·库克。总统的不满源于美联 储今年未能降低借贷成本。 此次演讲可以说是鲍威尔的最后一场演讲，他的主席任期将于 2026 年 5 月结束。财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent） 已牵头寻找鲍威尔的继任者，总统可能很快就会宣布他的人选，也就是鲍威尔任期结束前几个月。两位现任美联储理事 ——也就是与鲍威尔分道扬镳的两位——正在被考虑担任主席，这凸显了美联储内部罕见的分歧。 利率情况如何？ 自去年 12 月以来，美联储官员一直维持利率不变 ，等待观察特朗普的大范围关税措施对价格产生何种影响，然后再恢复 降息，这可能会刺 ...

Group 1 - The global financial markets are entering a phase of uncertainty and critical decision-making, influenced by unexpected U.S. inflation data, diverging monetary policies among major central banks, and potential geopolitical impacts [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while core inflation rose by 2.7%, initially suggesting a clear path for a rate cut in September [2] - However, the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly surged by 0.9% month-on-month, with a core PPI year-on-year increase of 3.7%, indicating rising production costs and the reality of "tariff-induced inflation" [2][3] Group 2 - The unexpected rise in PPI, along with downward revisions in non-farm employment data, has diminished the likelihood of a September rate cut, leading to a shift in market sentiment from certainty to skepticism regarding rate cuts [3] - Risk assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, have been significantly impacted, reflecting their sensitivity to macroeconomic headwinds, while major U.S. stock indices show signs of hesitation and differentiation [3] - Geopolitical events, such as the meeting between Trump and Putin, could have immediate effects on oil prices, highlighting the direct impact of geopolitical stability on commodity markets [3] Group 3 - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is expected to be a focal point for market participants seeking policy direction, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech being particularly significant [4] - Powell's tone could either suppress rate cut expectations if he emphasizes inflation risks or provide relief to the market if he alleviates inflation concerns [4] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3%, marking it as another developed economy central bank adopting a loosening policy [5] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is under scrutiny for potential additional stimulus measures to boost domestic demand and economic growth, which could significantly impact regional currencies and global commodity markets [5] - Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the UK and Germany will provide insights into European price trends, which could influence the European Central Bank's policy decisions [5] - Global PMI data will serve as a leading indicator for assessing the health of manufacturing and service sectors, providing further context for market conditions [5] Group 5 - The complexity of inflation, particularly "tariff-induced inflation," is challenging traditional monetary policy frameworks, as central banks strive to balance inflation control, growth support, and financial stability [6] - Geopolitical events add unpredictability to the market, necessitating investor vigilance regarding policy signals from the Jackson Hole Symposium and actions from various central banks [6] - The importance of flexibility in asset allocation and risk management is emphasized in the current high-volatility environment, where understanding macroeconomic trends and geopolitical dynamics is crucial for achieving stable returns [6]

Core Insights - The increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. is not fully reflected in consumer prices due to inventory buildup in warehouses and distribution centers, which is a result of importers rushing to stock up to avoid tariffs [1][4] - Retailers are experiencing a differentiated peak season as they have stocked up earlier than usual, leading to expanded warehouse capacity [1][4] - The logistics industry is facing rising costs associated with inventory management and transportation, which may or may not be passed on to consumers [2][3] Group 1: Inventory and Supply Chain Dynamics - Logistics experts indicate that the current price increases are "hidden" in the supply chain, particularly in warehouses, and have not yet reached consumers [1] - The Logistics Managers' Index author notes that the increase in inventory is linked to tariff-related price hikes that have not fully materialized [1] - Retailers typically see inventory peak around mid-October, but this year’s early stocking has led to a different inventory dynamic [1] Group 2: Holiday Season and Consumer Behavior - C.H. Robinson's global freight president mentions that holiday season stocking is occurring two to three months earlier than last year, but freight volumes are not as strong [2] - The demand for flexible warehousing has increased among importers and distributors to manage fourth-quarter inventory effectively [4] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and overall consumer confidence has resulted in lower inventory levels for many retailers [4] Group 3: Tariff Impacts and Market Adjustments - The changing tariff landscape is affecting supply chains, with Vietnam benefiting from the "China+1" strategy but facing high transshipment fees [7] - There is a notable shift in shipping patterns, with more goods being routed through Mexico and Southeast Asia, although overall freight volumes from Asia to the U.S. remain stable [7] - Consumer reactions to potential price increases due to supply chain issues are uncertain, with lingering effects from past inflation impacting consumer confidence [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slowdown in U.S. job growth in May due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, while stable wage growth may keep the economy on track and potentially delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations of 125,000 [4] - The healthcare sector contributed 62,000 new jobs, and the leisure and hospitality industry added 48,000, accounting for nearly 80% of the new positions [4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, with 625,000 people leaving the labor force, indicating a lack of confidence in the job market [4][5] - Hourly wages increased by 0.4%, surpassing market predictions, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%, slightly above the Fed's sustainable inflation target of 3.7% [4] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months has slowed to 135,000 from 232,000 in January [4] Labor Market Concerns - There are signs of pressure from the trade war, with 7.24 million people reported as unemployed, the highest level since the U.S. emerged from the pandemic in 2021 [5] - The labor force participation rate dropped from 62.6% in April to 62.4%, primarily affecting the prime working-age population [5] - The employment-population ratio fell from 60.0% in April to 59.7%, indicating a decline in the economy's job creation capacity [5] - Experts suggest that the decline in labor participation may mask marginal deterioration in employment and the labor market [6] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Following the employment data release, President Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, criticizing the current monetary policy as a "disaster" [7] - The Fed's current benchmark interest rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, described as "moderately restrictive" [7] - There is ongoing debate on whether tariff-induced inflation is transitory or persistent, with some Fed officials believing it to be a one-time price level increase [7][8] - Market expectations indicate potential rate cuts by the Fed in September and December, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for June 17-18 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink, stated that inflation caused by tariffs may impact the U.S. economy in the next five months [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are expected to contribute to inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [1] - The potential economic impact is anticipated to manifest within a five-month timeframe [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal divisions regarding whether to maintain interest rates or consider rate cuts later this year, influenced by the potential lasting impact of tariffs on inflation [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Some officials advocate for ignoring the temporary effects of tariffs on inflation, opening the door for potential rate cuts [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee believes the uncertainty surrounding tariffs is creating some "dust in the air," but still sees a path toward rate cuts [2] - Other members, including Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Logan, argue for keeping rates unchanged until the impact of tariffs becomes clearer [2][3] Group 2: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Waller, a Fed governor, asserts that any inflation caused by tariffs is likely to be temporary, aligning with the White House's view that price increases will be short-lived [1][4] - The Fed's May meeting minutes indicate that some officials believe tariffs on intermediate goods could lead to more persistent inflation [3][4] - Waller anticipates that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be most pronounced in the second half of 2025, depending on the final extent of tariff increases and responses from exporters and importers [4] Group 3: Economic Conditions and Policy Implications - Waller emphasizes that a strong job market and recent progress in inflation provide the Fed with time to observe trade negotiations and economic developments [1] - Logan warns that while short-term rate cuts can stimulate employment, excessive cuts could lead to an inflation spiral over time [3] - Some officials suggest that factors such as reduced tariff increases through trade negotiations and low consumer tolerance for price hikes could offset rising inflation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Economist of KPMG, Diane Swonk, anticipates that inflation caused by tariffs will be temporary [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's perspective on tariff-induced inflation is highlighted as a key point [1]