Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, the expectation of the nickel ore end in the long - term is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity. The global visible inventory is accumulating marginally. The high cost of pyrometallurgical integration in Indonesia may limit the downside space of nickel prices, but news about increased quotas in Indonesia and potential changes in the Philippines' export policy have cooled market concerns and speculation about the ore end. The smelting end lacks demand highlights, and supply elasticity restricts the upside space [1]. - For stainless steel, the supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and the steel price is oscillating at a low level. The pressure release after the easing of tariffs is not obvious, and new tariffs from the US and weak off - season demand restrict the upside elasticity of steel prices. Negative feedback has spread to the supply side, and the overall inventory needs to be digested. In the short - term, the steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and in the long - term, the pressure on the profit link may ease if production cuts continue and an inventory inflection point is seen, but the steel price center may not rise significantly [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamentals Nickel - The logic of the ore end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts the upside of nickel prices. The global refined nickel visible inventory is accumulating, and there are expectations of more potential supply in the medium - term. The negative feedback from stainless steel has led to increased production cuts and pressure on ferronickel, which in turn restricts the upside of refined nickel valuations [1]. Stainless Steel - Production and imports are declining marginally, and the current inventory is still under pressure. The supply - demand relationship has turned weak. The production schedule in June shows a year - on - year and month - on - month decline, and the inventory needs to be digested. The steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,437 tons to 36,471 tons, with decreases in warehouse receipt, spot, and bonded area inventories. LME nickel inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons [3]. - The ferronickel inventory in mid - June increased by 58% year - on - year and 10% month - on - month, with increasing inventory pressure [4]. - The total social inventory of stainless steel increased by 1.04% week - on - week, with increases in cold - rolled, hot - rolled, and 300 - series inventories [4]. - China's port nickel ore inventory increased by 173,700 wet tons to 7.3924 million wet tons, an increase of 2.41% [6]. Market News - In March, the Ontario provincial governor of Canada proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [7]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced ferronickel and entered the trial - production stage [7]. - An overseas nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [7]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the decision to remove the raw ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [8]. - Environmental violations have been found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the relevant department may fine the companies involved and will audit the entire park [8]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides a table of weekly key data for nickel and stainless steel, including futures prices, trading volumes, premiums, spreads, and prices of related products in the industrial chain [11]. Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the prices, trading volumes, inventories, and spreads of nickel and stainless steel futures contracts, as well as the prices and inventories of related raw materials [12][15][17][19][22][24][26]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-6-12 大豆贴水上涨，豆粕盘面领涨 油脂：市场情绪转弱，关注技术支撑有效性 蛋⽩粕：大豆贴水上涨，盘面领涨现货基差走弱 ⽟⽶/淀粉：现货依旧偏强，盘面冲高回落 ⽣猪：需求淡季，生猪现货偏弱 橡㬵：商品情绪仍强，胶价反弹触及压力位 合成橡㬵：原料成交偏弱，盘面上涨遇阻 纸浆：市场平淡运行，纸浆维持震荡 棉花：宏观提振叠加供应偏紧预期，棉价反弹 ⽩糖：糖价延续走弱 原⽊：现货偏稳，盘面下行 【异动品种】 研究员： 刘高超 从业资格号：F3011329 投资咨询号：Z0012689 王聪颖 从业资格号：F0254714 投资咨询号：Z0002180 吴静雯 从业资格号：F3083970 投资咨询号：Z0016293 李艺华 蛋⽩粕观点：⼤⾖贴⽔上涨，盘⾯领涨现货基差⾛弱 逻辑：商务部国际贸易谈判代表：中美原则上达成协议框架。关注未来中 国对美豆进口政策是否发生变化。国际⽅⾯，美豆播种和出苗较为顺利， 未来十五天降水温度略偏高。6月旱情暂无大碍，但季度展望仍有加重趋 势。农作物评级报告显示，美豆优良率符合市场预期。运费上涨，南美大 ...

6月4日，菜油市场剧烈波动。 数据显示，持买仓量前20期货公司席位合计持多单24.49万手，持卖仓量前20期货公司席位合计持空单22.98万手，多空比为1.07，净多持仓为1.51万手，相 较上一交易日减少1.15万手。 昨日，菜油期货价格快速下跌，午后主力合约下探至日内低点9090元/吨，创下近两个月新低，最终收跌2.56%。 "周三市场有消息称后续中加贸易关系或出现转向，远期菜籽供应偏紧的担忧减弱，前期政策端升水持续挤出。"浙商期货油脂油料分析师王璐表示，自中 加贸易摩擦以来，远期菜籽供应的不确定性抬升了菜系商品的整体估值。 从基本面来看，据王璐介绍，国际菜籽供应进入新旧转换期，目前新作菜籽仍处于播种生长期，天气情况对市场的影响将逐步上升。具体来看，欧盟作物 监测报告显示，5月欧洲产区菜籽单产为3.17吨/公顷，同比增加8.19%。欧洲产区菜籽维持增产预期。加拿大方面，截至5月底主产区播种进度超过80%， 过去一个月降水量偏低，地下土壤水分低于往年平均水平，需持续关注后续天气情况。 "6月的USDA供需报告显示，2025/2026年度全球菜籽产量预计恢复至正常水平，目前加拿大菜籽种植进度过半，种植区域天气 ...

Group 1 - Domestic commodities experienced a strong rebound on June 4, with coking coal rising over 7% and coke over 5%, leading to a broad market recovery [1][2] - The rebound was primarily driven by coking coal, which had seen significant price drops recently, prompting profit-taking among short sellers [2][3] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1350.34 points, up 0.51% from the previous trading day, while the Commodity Futures Index rose to 1869.74 points, also reflecting a 0.51% increase [1][6] Group 2 - Supply-side factors include temporary production halts in Shanxi coal mines and safety incidents, leading to expectations of tighter coking coal supply, although overall production remains high [3] - There are rumors regarding potential tax increases on Mongolian coal resources, but no official announcements have been made, keeping supply conditions relatively loose [3] - On the demand side, iron and steel production is expected to decline, with coking enterprises facing reduced profits and accumulating inventory, indicating a cautious outlook for future demand [3] Group 3 - The shipping industry is experiencing upward pressure on freight rates due to strong demand on the US routes, with European shipping contracts also seeing increases [4] - Despite the positive sentiment, the current supply-demand structure does not support significant price jumps, suggesting a more gradual adjustment in freight rates [4] Group 4 - The oilseed market is showing weakness, with canola oil prices dropping over 2% due to improved supply expectations following trade negotiations between Canada and China [5][7] - The increase in domestic canola planting areas and expected imports are contributing to a more favorable supply outlook, which may keep prices under pressure in the short term [5][7] - Other commodities, such as caustic soda and paper pulp, are also facing downward pressure due to oversupply and seasonal demand factors [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views Crude Oil - International oil prices rose, mainly driven by macro and supply - side factors boosting market risk appetite. In the short - term, the upward trend of the market is due to supply expectation adjustments and macro - geopolitical impacts on market sentiment. In the long - term, the balance sheet may continue to loosen. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The expected price ranges are [59, 69] for WTI, [61, 71] for Brent, and [440, 500] for SC. Options can consider buying straddle structures [2]. Methanol - The methanol market is facing significant inventory accumulation pressure. The 09 contract is mainly priced based on the oversupply situation in the inland area. The market will continue to force production cuts. The price will continue to decline in an oscillatory manner, with short - term resistance around 2270 and a medium - term target of 2050 - 2100 [5]. Styrene - Although OPEC+ has a strong production increase expectation, geopolitical risks and seasonal factors support oil prices in the short - term. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in June, and the cost support for styrene is weak. With the improvement of styrene industry profits, supply is expected to increase while demand is weak, so styrene prices are under pressure. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach [9]. Polyolefins - In the plastics market, the supply of PE may see inventory reduction in early June due to increased maintenance and less imports, while the supply pressure of PP will increase as maintenance ends. The demand lacks sustainability. It is recommended to short - sell PP on rallies and consider expanding the LP spread [13]. Caustic Soda and PVC - For caustic soda, the supply - side contradiction is limited in June, and some enterprises want to support prices. The demand from the alumina industry provides strong support for the spot price. It is advisable to consider expanding the spread between the near - month and 09 contracts. For PVC, the long - term supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the short - term supply pressure will increase. It is recommended to short - sell PVC on rallies, with an expected price range of 4500 - 5000 [38]. Urea - The core contradiction of urea lies in the continuous impact of high supply and weak demand. The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. After the Dragon Boat Festival, if agricultural fertilizer procurement fails to start effectively and the export volume is low, the price may decline [41]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is increasing, and demand may weaken. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6500 - 6900, and consider reverse spreads for PX9 - 1 and narrowing the PX - SC spread. - PTA: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, but short - term support is strong. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900, and consider reverse spreads for TA9 - 1. - MEG: The supply - demand structure in June is good, with inventory reduction expectations. Consider buying EG09 around 4200 and positive spreads for EG9 - 1. - Short - fiber: The driving force is weaker than the raw material end. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trading, and expand the processing fee at a low level. - Bottle - chip: The supply - demand is expected to improve in June, and consider expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 4, Brent rose 1.00 to 65.63, WTI fell 0.18 to 63.23. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 decreased significantly [2]. - **Supply Factors**: Canadian wildfires led to a supply interruption of about 350,000 barrels per day of heavy oil production [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2509 rose 17 to 2225. The MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 61 to 6 [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 5.64%, and port inventory increased. The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 decreased significantly [5]. Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The styrene East - China spot price fell 330 to 7430. The EB07 - EB08 spread decreased by 24 to 78 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in June, and styrene supply may increase while demand is weak [9]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 - 2509 increased by 4 to - 28, and PP2505 - 2509 increased by 19 to - 39 [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, and the开工 rates of some devices changed [13]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Prices and Spreads**: For caustic soda, FOB East - China port price rose to 410. For PVC, V2505 fell 58 to 4905 [33][34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda has many maintenance plans in June, and PVC supply is expected to increase in the short - term [38]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The 09 contract fell 12 to 1761. The 05 contract - 09 contract spread increased by 13 to - 43 [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily production reached 207,000 tons, and enterprise inventory increased by 6.9%. Demand is in the off - season [41]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: PX prices fell, and the PX - crude oil spread decreased by 31 to 366. PTA prices decreased, and the PTA spot processing fee increased by 66 to 444 [44]. - **开工率**: The开工 rates of some devices in the polyester industry chain changed, such as a 2.6% increase in the Asian PX开工率 [44].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 5 月 9 日） 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：CBOT 大豆期货周四收高，市场寄望于干扰美国谷物和油籽出口的贸易紧张局势能够缓解。随 着市场对进口大豆供应预期的改善，油厂开工率同样存在继续向好的预期，但由于终端库存水平整体不高， 因而现货端不会立即进入供应宽松周期，油厂豆粕累库预计将出现在 5 月下旬。短期豆粕期价维持区间震 荡。 备注： 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击 ...