1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weakly bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Weakly bearish [2] - Asphalt: Sideways [2] - Polyester: Weakly bearish [4] - Rubber: Sideways [4] - Methanol: Sideways [6] - Polyolefins: Sideways [6] - Polyvinyl chloride: Weakly bearish [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices have been declining for six consecutive days. The upcoming meeting between US and Russian leaders and the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with weak fundamentals, keep oil prices under pressure [1]. - Fuel oil supply remains sufficient in August, demand may weaken, and the overall fundamental support from the supply - demand side has declined. Short - term attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [2]. - The asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory in the short term, but the risk lies in crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - Polyester prices are under pressure due to the further decline in oil prices at the cost end, and the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol is expected to shift to inventory accumulation [4]. - The rubber market has sufficient supply and stable demand, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - Methanol is expected to maintain a sideways trend with inventory accumulation in August but a relatively low overall inventory level [6]. - The supply and demand of polyolefins will recover in August, with limited upside space in the absence of a significant increase in the cost end [6]. - The fundamental pressure of PVC has eased in August, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, WTI September contract closed at $63.88/barrel, down $0.47 or 0.73%; Brent October contract closed at $66.43/barrel, down $0.46 or 0.69%; SC2509 closed at 497.1 yuan/barrel, down 7.2 yuan or 1.43%. US crude exports in July dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years, about 310 barrels per day. The market is concerned about the US - Russia leaders' meeting, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict remains uncertain. Fundamentally, oil prices lack support and are under pressure [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil FU2509 rose 0.6% to 2835 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2510 rose 0.31% to 3550 yuan/ton. As of August 6, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory increased by 165.1 barrels (6.69%) week - on - week, and Fujeirah's fuel oil inventory increased by 172 barrels (21.67%) week - on - week. In August, supply is sufficient, demand may weaken, and the fundamental support from the supply - demand side has declined [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt BU2509 rose 0.17% to 3529 yuan/ton. In August, some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans, supply is expected to decrease, and demand in the south is expected to improve. The short - term asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory, but the risk lies in crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4724 yuan/ton, up 0.9%; EG2509 closed at 4414 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The cost - end oil price is under pressure, and the downstream demand has resilience. Ethylene glycol supply has recovered well, and the inventory is expected to accumulate [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber RU2509 rose 30 yuan/ton to 15525 yuan/ton, and the main contract of NR rose 30 yuan/ton to 12350 yuan/ton. The weather in rubber - producing areas is good, downstream demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - **Methanol**: In August, inventory accumulation is expected, but the increase in imports is not large, and the overall inventory level is relatively low. Methanol prices are expected to maintain a sideways trend [6]. - **Polyolefins**: In August, both supply and demand will recover, inventory will gradually shift from society to downstream, and the upside space is limited without a significant increase in the cost end [6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: In August, the fundamental pressure of PVC has eased, inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on August 8, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is closely monitoring market dynamics, supply and demand, and is concerned about US President Trump's recent remarks. He expects oil prices to be below $72 per barrel. The CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said that Kuwait's quota production is 2.548 million barrels per day [9]. - US crude exports in July dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years due to insufficient domestic supply, which increased the price of WTI futures relative to Brent crude and damaged overseas demand [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents line charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows line charts of the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Line charts of the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products are provided, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [39][41][44] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Line charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products are shown, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [56][59][61] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Line charts of the production profits of various energy - chemical products are presented, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [65][67][68] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experience [70][71][72]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the products in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the price trends and market conditions of various energy and chemical products on July 30, 2025. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical events, inventory data, and supply - demand fundamentals to provide investment suggestions for each product [1][2][4] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices rose. WTI 9 - month contract closed up 2.50 dollars to 69.21 dollars/barrel, Brent 9 - month contract up 2.47 dollars to 72.51 dollars/barrel, and SC2509 up 12.8 yuan/barrel to 527.5 yuan/barrel. Trump's potential sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine issue increase supply concerns. API data shows an increase in US crude and distillate inventories and a decrease in gasoline inventories. If secondary sanctions occur, it will impact the Asian market and raise energy prices [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose. The market structure slightly recovered. Traders expect an increase in arrivals from Europe in July. High - sulfur fuel oil in Asia faces supply pressure from Middle - East cargoes. It's advisable to stop losses on previous spread shorts and wait for new opportunities [2] - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Tuesday. Entering August, northern demand will increase, and some refineries plan to resume production or increase output. However, some refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans, and some have maintenance plans. Rainy weather affects demand, but there is potential for improvement after the rainy season. Short - term prices are supported by low supply and inventory, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil prices stabilize [2] - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures rose on Tuesday. Polyester device operations are adjusted, with some starting up and some shutting down for maintenance. The "anti - involution" market fades, but cost - side oil price support and downstream demand resilience, along with low visible inventories in TA and EG, are expected to drive polyester prices to oscillate strongly [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, rubber futures prices fell. The European replacement tire market in Q2 2025 declined year - on - year. The "anti - involution" market fades, and macro events cause short - term wide - range oscillations in rubber prices [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol prices showed different trends in different regions. Iranian device loads have recovered, arrival volumes have increased, downstream profits and operations are stable, and inventories are rising. It is expected to enter an oscillating phase after valuation repair [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, polyolefin prices were in a certain range. Polyolefins are gradually moving towards a situation of strong supply and demand. If the cost side does not drop significantly, the downside space for polyolefins is limited [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply remains high - level oscillating, demand is gradually recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventories are slowly decreasing. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and short - selling power may recover [7] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis details of various energy and chemical products on July 30, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, etc., such as spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8] Market News - Trump's potential sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine issue increase market concerns about supply shortages. API data shows that US crude inventories increased more than expected in the week ending July 25, while gasoline inventories decreased and distillate inventories increased [10] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [12][13][14] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., over different time periods [27][29][33] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report analyzes the spreads of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [42][44][48] - **Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low - sulfur spreads, etc. [59][61][65] - **Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit trends of products like ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [68][73] Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of the research institute, with rich experience in futures derivatives research and many honors. She has served many listed companies and designed risk - management and investment strategies [75] - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and many industry honors [76] - **Di Yilin**: A rubber and polyester analyst, with achievements in the industry and strong data analysis and logical thinking abilities [77] - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in both financial theory and industrial operations [78]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘上涨 0.71 美元至 | | | | 65.29 美元/桶，涨幅 1.10%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 0.57 美元 | | | | 至 67.04 美元/桶，涨幅 0.86%。SC2507 以 479.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 5.5 元/桶，涨幅为 1.16%。调查显示，上月欧佩克石油产量为每日 | | | | 2675 万桶，较 4 月总产量增加 15 万桶/日。根据 OPEC+八个成 | | | | 员国关于 5 月产量的协议，其中五个 OPEC 成员国阿尔及利亚、 | | | | 伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋应将产量提高 31 万桶/日。 | | | 原油 | 这五个国家的实际增产为 18 万桶/日。5 月份我国进口原油 4660 | 震荡 | | | 万吨，环比下降 3.0%，同比下降 0.8%。1-5 月份，中国累计进口 | | | | 原油 2296 ...