1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][4][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is currently affected by the uncertainty of supply - side expectations, and oil prices are expected to oscillate. The fuel oil market is also in an oscillating state due to factors such as supply and demand and sanctions. The asphalt market has increased production expectations in September, and the price will oscillate while paying attention to the actual demand. The polyester market has improved demand expectations, and the supply has shrunk due to some device overhauls, with prices following cost fluctuations. The rubber market has support from demand, and the price will oscillate in the short - term. The methanol market will maintain an oscillating trend considering supply and demand changes. The polyolefin market is gradually transitioning to a state of both strong supply and demand, with narrow - range oscillations. The PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [1][2][4][5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI October contract rose $0.9 to $64.15/barrel (1.42% increase), Brent October contract rose $0.83 to $68.05/barrel (1.23% increase), and SC2510 closed at 481.5 yuan/barrel, down 4.9 yuan/barrel (1.01% decrease). Last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased due to increased demand. Russia extended the gasoline export ban until September 30. Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil export pipelines and US tariffs on Indian imports affected Russian crude exports, with weekly shipments decreasing to 272 barrels/day in the week ending August 24. The market is affected by supply - side uncertainty, and oil prices are expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2510 fell 2.39% to 2821 yuan/ton, and LU2511 fell 1.47% to 3485 yuan/ton. Affected by US sanctions on Iran and previous low valuations, FU had a strong rise this week but回调ed with the oil price yesterday. The Chinese refinery's average utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 63.61% as of August 27, up 1.04 percentage points from last week. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure is expected to continue. FU is affected by sentiment and is expected to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2510 fell 0.57% to 3505 yuan/ton. The domestic refinery's asphalt production plan in September is about 2.64 million tons, a 10% increase from August and a 33% increase from the same period last year. This week, the domestic refinery's asphalt inventory level was 27.15%, down 0.66% week - on - week, and the social inventory rate was 33.94%, up 0.04% week - on - week. The asphalt plant's device utilization rate was 36.67%, down 0.25% week - on - week. In September, the demand is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate while paying attention to the actual demand [2][4] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4824 yuan/ton, down 0.94%; EG2601 closed at 4481 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The polyester yarn sales in the Yangtze River Delta region are still weak, with an average sales estimate of about 30%. A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol device in Shanxi is restarting, and a cracking device in Singapore has an unexpected delay in restart. The demand improvement brings positive support, and the supply has shrunk due to device overhauls. The prices of PX and TA follow cost fluctuations, and the ethylene glycol price is favorable due to reduced imports and lower inventory [4][5] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2601 fell 125 yuan/ton to 15760 yuan/ton, NR fell 175 yuan/ton to 12615 yuan/ton, and BR fell 135 yuan/ton to 11710 yuan/ton. From January to July, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, but exports to China increased by 5% year - on - year. The supply - side prices of cup rubber and latex are relatively firm, and the demand - side tire exports have increased, supporting the short - term price to oscillate [5] - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2250 yuan/ton. Recently, there have been many domestic device overhauls, and the supply is at a phased low. Overseas, Iranian device loads are high, and short - term arrivals will remain high. However, with the increase in the price difference between Europe, India, and China, the arrival volume will decrease in the long - term. The MTO device load in East China is not high, and the port inventory will increase in the short - term. The price is expected to oscillate [5][7] - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China wire - drawing PP is 6910 - 7080 yuan/ton. The production profit of different raw material - based PP varies. The subsequent production volume will remain high, and the downstream enterprise's operating rate is currently low but is expected to increase with the approaching of the peak demand season. The market is gradually transitioning to a state of both strong supply and demand, and the price will oscillate narrowly [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The market price in East China, North China, and South China has adjusted weakly. The domestic real - estate construction has stabilized and recovered, and the demand for pipes and profiles is expected to increase. However, exports will be affected by India's anti - dumping policy. The supply remains high, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides the basis and reference for analyzing the market trends of various energy - chemical products by presenting the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of multiple energy - chemical varieties on August 27 and 26, as well as the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - The US imported about 74,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude oil in the week ending August 22, which is the first time since the US government issued a new license to Chevron to operate in Venezuela. Russia extended the gasoline export ban until September 30, with different lifting times for fuel manufacturers and non - manufacturers [14] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It shows the historical closing prices of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, helping to analyze the long - term price trends of these products [16][18][20][22][24][25][26][28] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis data of multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, which is useful for understanding the relationship between spot and futures prices [30][32][36][38][40][42] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads of different contracts of multiple energy - chemical products, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [44][46][49][52][54][57][60] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the historical spreads and ratios between different energy - chemical products, helping to analyze the price relationships between different varieties [62][63][64][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the historical production profit data of multiple energy - chemical products, which is helpful for understanding the profitability of different products [67][69][71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional backgrounds in the energy - chemical field, and they have won many industry awards [73][74][75][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weakly bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Weakly bearish [2] - Asphalt: Sideways [2] - Polyester: Weakly bearish [4] - Rubber: Sideways [4] - Methanol: Sideways [6] - Polyolefins: Sideways [6] - Polyvinyl chloride: Weakly bearish [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices have been declining for six consecutive days. The upcoming meeting between US and Russian leaders and the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with weak fundamentals, keep oil prices under pressure [1]. - Fuel oil supply remains sufficient in August, demand may weaken, and the overall fundamental support from the supply - demand side has declined. Short - term attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [2]. - The asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory in the short term, but the risk lies in crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - Polyester prices are under pressure due to the further decline in oil prices at the cost end, and the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol is expected to shift to inventory accumulation [4]. - The rubber market has sufficient supply and stable demand, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - Methanol is expected to maintain a sideways trend with inventory accumulation in August but a relatively low overall inventory level [6]. - The supply and demand of polyolefins will recover in August, with limited upside space in the absence of a significant increase in the cost end [6]. - The fundamental pressure of PVC has eased in August, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, WTI September contract closed at $63.88/barrel, down $0.47 or 0.73%; Brent October contract closed at $66.43/barrel, down $0.46 or 0.69%; SC2509 closed at 497.1 yuan/barrel, down 7.2 yuan or 1.43%. US crude exports in July dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years, about 310 barrels per day. The market is concerned about the US - Russia leaders' meeting, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict remains uncertain. Fundamentally, oil prices lack support and are under pressure [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil FU2509 rose 0.6% to 2835 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2510 rose 0.31% to 3550 yuan/ton. As of August 6, Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory increased by 165.1 barrels (6.69%) week - on - week, and Fujeirah's fuel oil inventory increased by 172 barrels (21.67%) week - on - week. In August, supply is sufficient, demand may weaken, and the fundamental support from the supply - demand side has declined [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt BU2509 rose 0.17% to 3529 yuan/ton. In August, some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans, supply is expected to decrease, and demand in the south is expected to improve. The short - term asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory, but the risk lies in crude oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4724 yuan/ton, up 0.9%; EG2509 closed at 4414 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The cost - end oil price is under pressure, and the downstream demand has resilience. Ethylene glycol supply has recovered well, and the inventory is expected to accumulate [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber RU2509 rose 30 yuan/ton to 15525 yuan/ton, and the main contract of NR rose 30 yuan/ton to 12350 yuan/ton. The weather in rubber - producing areas is good, downstream demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - **Methanol**: In August, inventory accumulation is expected, but the increase in imports is not large, and the overall inventory level is relatively low. Methanol prices are expected to maintain a sideways trend [6]. - **Polyolefins**: In August, both supply and demand will recover, inventory will gradually shift from society to downstream, and the upside space is limited without a significant increase in the cost end [6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: In August, the fundamental pressure of PVC has eased, inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on August 8, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is closely monitoring market dynamics, supply and demand, and is concerned about US President Trump's recent remarks. He expects oil prices to be below $72 per barrel. The CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said that Kuwait's quota production is 2.548 million barrels per day [9]. - US crude exports in July dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years due to insufficient domestic supply, which increased the price of WTI futures relative to Brent crude and damaged overseas demand [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents line charts of the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows line charts of the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Line charts of the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products are provided, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [39][41][44] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Line charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products are shown, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [56][59][61] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Line charts of the production profits of various energy - chemical products are presented, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [65][67][68] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experience [70][71][72]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the products in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the price trends and market conditions of various energy and chemical products on July 30, 2025. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical events, inventory data, and supply - demand fundamentals to provide investment suggestions for each product [1][2][4] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices rose. WTI 9 - month contract closed up 2.50 dollars to 69.21 dollars/barrel, Brent 9 - month contract up 2.47 dollars to 72.51 dollars/barrel, and SC2509 up 12.8 yuan/barrel to 527.5 yuan/barrel. Trump's potential sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine issue increase supply concerns. API data shows an increase in US crude and distillate inventories and a decrease in gasoline inventories. If secondary sanctions occur, it will impact the Asian market and raise energy prices [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose. The market structure slightly recovered. Traders expect an increase in arrivals from Europe in July. High - sulfur fuel oil in Asia faces supply pressure from Middle - East cargoes. It's advisable to stop losses on previous spread shorts and wait for new opportunities [2] - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Tuesday. Entering August, northern demand will increase, and some refineries plan to resume production or increase output. However, some refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans, and some have maintenance plans. Rainy weather affects demand, but there is potential for improvement after the rainy season. Short - term prices are supported by low supply and inventory, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil prices stabilize [2] - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures rose on Tuesday. Polyester device operations are adjusted, with some starting up and some shutting down for maintenance. The "anti - involution" market fades, but cost - side oil price support and downstream demand resilience, along with low visible inventories in TA and EG, are expected to drive polyester prices to oscillate strongly [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, rubber futures prices fell. The European replacement tire market in Q2 2025 declined year - on - year. The "anti - involution" market fades, and macro events cause short - term wide - range oscillations in rubber prices [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol prices showed different trends in different regions. Iranian device loads have recovered, arrival volumes have increased, downstream profits and operations are stable, and inventories are rising. It is expected to enter an oscillating phase after valuation repair [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, polyolefin prices were in a certain range. Polyolefins are gradually moving towards a situation of strong supply and demand. If the cost side does not drop significantly, the downside space for polyolefins is limited [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply remains high - level oscillating, demand is gradually recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventories are slowly decreasing. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and short - selling power may recover [7] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis details of various energy and chemical products on July 30, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, etc., such as spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8] Market News - Trump's potential sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine issue increase market concerns about supply shortages. API data shows that US crude inventories increased more than expected in the week ending July 25, while gasoline inventories decreased and distillate inventories increased [10] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [12][13][14] - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., over different time periods [27][29][33] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report analyzes the spreads of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [42][44][48] - **Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low - sulfur spreads, etc. [59][61][65] - **Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit trends of products like ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [68][73] Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of the research institute, with rich experience in futures derivatives research and many honors. She has served many listed companies and designed risk - management and investment strategies [75] - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and many industry honors [76] - **Di Yilin**: A rubber and polyester analyst, with achievements in the industry and strong data analysis and logical thinking abilities [77] - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in both financial theory and industrial operations [78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price center continued to move up on Monday, but the increase in OPEC production and the slowdown in China's import growth may put pressure on high oil prices, and the sustainability of the rebound should be monitored [1] - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market structure is relatively stable, but the spread and spot premium have declined. The absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to oscillate strongly, and long spreads can be considered [2] - The supply of asphalt in North China is low, and there is an expectation of supply reduction in Shandong, which provides bottom support. However, rainfall in the South restricts demand, and the upward space is limited [2] - The fundamentals of TA are weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure. The EG price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to port shipments and polyester production cuts [3] - Short - term weather disrupts rubber production, and downstream tire demand declines slightly, so the rubber rebound space is limited [4] - The MTO device operation rate remains high, but the port and inland inventories are rising, and the methanol price is expected to oscillate [6] - The short - term fundamentals of polyolefins have few contradictions, but high inventory and supply put pressure on valuation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - The PVC downstream is entering the off - season, and the fundamentals are under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 7 - month contract closed up $0.71 to $65.29/barrel, Brent 8 - month contract closed up $0.57 to $67.04/barrel, and SC2507 closed up 5.5 yuan to 479.3 yuan/barrel. OPEC production increased, China's imports decreased in May, and the overall macro - atmosphere is optimistic, but the refinery profit may be under pressure [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of FU2507 and LU2507 fell on Monday. The low - sulfur market structure strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market was relatively stable. The short - term cost rebound may lead to an oscillating - upward trend of absolute prices [2] - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2507 rose on Monday. The supply in North China is low, and there is a supply reduction expectation in Shandong. However, rainfall in the South restricts demand, and the upward space is limited [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 and EG2509 closed down, and PX also fell. The production and operation of some devices changed, and the overall fundamentals of TA are weak, while EG is expected to oscillate [3] - **Rubber**: The main contracts of RU2509 and NR rose, and BR fell. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, and Myanmar has an export target. Short - term weather and demand factors limit the rebound space [4] - **Methanol**: The spot and international prices are given. The MTO device operation rate is high, but inventory is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and production profits of different types of polyolefins are presented. The short - term fundamentals have few contradictions, but high inventory and supply put pressure on valuation [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The prices in different regions are stable or adjusted. The real - estate construction is stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6][7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Provides the basis data (including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, etc.) of various energy - chemical products on June 10, 2025, and also gives the basis change and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8] 3.3 Market News - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, aiming to implement the strategic communication between the two heads of state and promote the healthy development of bilateral economic and trade relations [10] - In May, OPEC's crude oil production increase was lower than the target, with some countries under - producing [10] - In May 2025, China imported 46.6 million tons of crude oil, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 229.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Displays the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15][17][20][22][24][25][27] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Presents the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [28][33][34][37][40][42] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Shows the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49][52][55][57] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Displays the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][61][63][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Presents the cash - flow and profit charts of some energy - chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [68][69][71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director and director of energy - chemical research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With over a decade of experience in futures and derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [73] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has in - depth industry research experience and has won multiple awards [74] - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis [75] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and has passed the CFA Level III exam [76]