Core Viewpoint - The pig farming ETF (159865) has shown a positive performance, with a 0.99% increase on July 16 and a 1.99% rise over the past 10 days [1][3]. Market Analysis - The pig market price has rebounded from a low of 14.1 yuan/kg at the end of June to 15.1 yuan/kg, although there has been a slight decline since then [3]. - The demand for pigs exhibits stable seasonality, with the peak consumption period typically occurring from the fourth quarter to early next year due to the Spring Festival. Currently, the market is in a low-demand season [5]. - The slaughtering rate in the pig industry is slightly higher than the same period last year, but the difference is minimal. Short-term support for pork consumption is lacking due to seasonal factors, such as school vacations and reduced outdoor activities, leading to a decline in group meal demand [5]. Supply Dynamics - The fluctuations in pig prices are primarily driven by supply-side factors, with the industry currently experiencing growth in supply, resulting in a strong supply and weak demand scenario [7]. - As of May, the number of breeding sows was reported at 40.42 million, an increase of 40,000 heads. In June, a sample of enterprises indicated a breeding sow count of 7.0337 million, up by 54,800 heads, which puts pressure on prices [7]. - The recent rebound in pig farming is attributed to expectations regarding supply-side policies and a short-term price increase. However, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance continues to exert downward pressure on future prices [7]. Investment Outlook - Despite the current supply-demand dynamics, the overall increase in the pig farming sector remains relatively low compared to other supply-side reform sectors, such as steel. Investors are advised to monitor the situation and consider buying on dips [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The demand in the off - season shows resilience and does not decline significantly as expected. The supply - demand in June is basically balanced with a flat inventory trend. Currently, the supply contraction expectation affects the market, and the improved market sentiment leads to price rebounds. In early and mid - July, Tangshan implements production restrictions, providing short - term support for the spot market. The reference fluctuation range for the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3150 - 3300, and for the rebar, it is 3050 - 3150 [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. This week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports also declined. On the demand side, due to increased steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions, the molten iron output decreased. The molten iron is expected to continue to decline in July, with an average of 230 - 240 tons. In the short term, iron ore will oscillate strongly, while in the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. It is recommended to go long on iron ore 2509 at low prices and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade with a reference range of 700 - 750 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - As of yesterday's close, both coke and coking coal futures showed an oscillating upward trend, and the spot markets were stable with a slight upward bias. For coke, the fourth round of price cuts landed on June 23, and a phased bottom is emerging. On the supply side, after the end of environmental inspections in June, some coal mines are expected to resume production. On the demand side, there are rumors of environmental production restrictions in Tangshan, and the molten iron output is expected to decline. For coking coal, the domestic coking coal auction market is warming up, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand from coking plants has slightly declined, but the downstream replenishment efforts have increased. It is recommended to hedge coke 2601 and coking coal 2601 at high prices, go long on coke 2509 and coking coal 2509 at low prices after corrections, and conduct 9 - 1 calendar spread trades [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3150, 3160, and 3210 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3098, 3063, and 3087 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3230, 3140, and 3210 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3206, 3190, and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, and the billet price is 2910 yuan/ton. The profits of East China hot - rolled coils, Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar, Jiangsu converter rebar, etc., show different degrees of decline [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output is 240.8 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (- 0.6%). The output of five major steel products is 885.2 tons, an increase of 4.2 tons (0.5%). Rebar output is 217.8 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons (1.5%), and hot - rolled coil output is 328.1 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons (0.3%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1339.9 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons (0.0%). Rebar inventory is 545.2 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons (- 0.7%), and hot - rolled coil inventory is 341.2 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons (- 1.1%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume is 240.8 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (- 0.6%). The apparent demand for five major steel products is 885.2 tons, an increase of 5.4 tons (0.6%), the apparent demand for rebar is 219.9 tons, an increase of 5.0 tons (2.3%), and for hot - rolled coils, it is 326.3 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons (- 0.6%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders show an increase of 0.3%. The 09 - contract basis of some powders shows a significant decline. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.0 (- 2.3%), the 9 - 1 spread increased by 0.5 (1.9%), and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 (2.9%) [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2483.9 tons, an increase of 120.9 tons (5.1%). The global shipment volume (weekly) is 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 362.7 tons (- 10.8%). The national monthly import volume is 9813.1 tons, a decrease of 500.3 tons (- 4.9%) [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 240.9 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons (- 0.6%). The 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume (weekly) is 319.3 tons, a decrease of 6.6 tons (- 2.0%). The national monthly pig iron output is 7411.4 tons, an increase of 153.1 tons (2.1%), and the national monthly crude steel output is 8654.5 tons, an increase of 52.6 tons (0.6%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) is 13822.73 tons, a decrease of 55.7 tons (- 0.4%). The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8918.6 tons, an increase of 71.1 tons (0.8%) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices showed an oscillating upward trend, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward bias. The fourth round of coke price cuts landed on June 23. Coking coal futures also rose, and the spot market showed a bottom - building and rebound trend [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 64.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons (- 0.24%). The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 47.5 tons, an increase of 0.0 tons (0.1%). The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines is 865.3 tons, an increase of 12.4 tons (1.5%), and the clean coal output is 442.3 tons, an increase of 7.4 tons (1.7%) [5]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 240.9 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons (- 0.6%). The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 64.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons (- 0.2%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 47.5 tons, an increase of 0.0 tons (0.1%) [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory is 930.7 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons (- 1.1%). The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 789.6 tons, an increase of 8.4 tons (1.1%) [5].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The steel market is currently affected by factors such as demand suppression in the off - season, previous supply contraction expectations, and short - term support from Tangshan's production restrictions. Steel prices are expected to follow the trend of coking coal in the short term. The reference range for the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3150 - 3300, and for the rebar is 3050 - 3150 [1][3]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions remained stable, with some minor changes in the futures contracts. For example, the rebar 05 contract increased by 3 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The costs of electric - furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu increased slightly, while the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions decreased to varying degrees. For instance, the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 23 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.5 to 240.8 (a decline of 0.6%), while the output of the five major steel products increased by 4.2 to 885.2 (a rise of 0.5%). The inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly, with the rebar inventory dropping by 3.8 to 545.2 (a decline of 0.7%) and the hot - rolled coil inventory increasing by 3.8 to 344.9 (a rise of 1.1%) [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The daily average building materials trading volume decreased slightly, with a decline of 0.2%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 5.4 to 885.3 (a rise of 0.6%), and the rebar apparent demand increased by 5.0 to 224.9 (a rise of 2.3%), while the hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 1.9 to 324.4 (a decline of 0.6%) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The iron ore market shows a short - term oscillatory trend, and in the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract at low prices and adopt a 9 - 1 positive spread strategy [4]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Most of the iron ore warehouse - receipt costs decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 6.6 to 725.3 (a decline of 0.9%). The basis of the 09 contract for most varieties decreased significantly, and the 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged [4]. - **Production and Inventory**: The weekly global iron ore shipments decreased by 362.7 to 2994.9 (a decline of 10.8%), and the 45 - port arrivals decreased by 120.9 to 2363.0 (a decline of 5.1%). The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 71.1 to 8918.6 (a rise of 0.8%) [4]. - **Demand**: Affected by steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions, the pig iron output decreased from 242.3 to 240.9 (a decline of 0.6%). In the future, the pig iron output is expected to continue to decline, with an average of 230 - 240 tons per day in July [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Both coke and coking coal futures showed an oscillatory upward trend, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward trend. For coke, it is recommended to hedge the coke 2601 contract at high prices, go long on the coke 2509 contract at low prices after a pull - back, and adopt a 9 - 1 positive spread strategy. For coking coal, similar strategies are recommended [7]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some coke varieties increased slightly, such as the Rizhao Port quasi - primary wet - quenched coke increasing by 20 to 1190 (a rise of 1.7%). The coking coal prices also showed some upward trends, with the Mongolian coking coal warehouse - receipt price increasing by 0.6%. The basis and spreads of coke and coking coal showed different changes [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of coke and coking coal is expected to increase as some mines resume production after the end of environmental inspections. The demand is affected by potential environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, and the pig iron output is expected to remain at 230 - 240 tons per day in July. The inventory of coke and coking coal is at a medium level, with different trends in different sectors such as coking plants, steel mills, and ports [7]. - **Profit**: The coking and coking coal enterprise profits showed different trends. The steel - union coking profit decreased by 6, while the sample coal mine profit increased by 3 (a rise of 1.0%) [7].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into price movements, production rates, and market conditions. Group 1: Liquidity - The London gold spot price increased by 1.83% week-on-week [2] - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for February 2025 is at 46.65, down 0.86% from the previous month [2] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -6.6 percentage points in January 2025, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In late February, key enterprises' average daily crude steel production reached a new high of 2.259 million tons [3] - Weekly price changes include rebar up by 0.30% and cement price index up by 2.06%, while iron ore decreased by 3.73% [3] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires increased by 0.96 percentage points, 1.00 percentage points, 0.80 percentage points, and 0.21 percentage points respectively [3] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass changed by 0.34% and -1.57% respectively, with flat glass profit at -17 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1323 yuan/ton [4] - The flat glass operating rate remained stable at 76.38% [4] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.12%, copper up by 2.57%, and aluminum up by 1.21% [5] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 82.78%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points [5] - The PMI new orders index for February is at 51.10%, up by 1.9 percentage points [5] Group 5: Subcategories - Iron ore spot price decreased by 3.73%, while prebaked anode prices reached a nearly 10-month high [6] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive profit of 441.35 yuan/ton, down by 40.71% [6] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,870 yuan/ton, up by 1.21%, with estimated profit at 2,748 yuan/ton (excluding tax), down by 15.43% [6] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.20 this week [7] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 120 yuan/ton [7] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 640 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [7] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in February 2025 is at 48.60%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1211.15 points, down by 3.16% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 73.70%, down by 0.80 percentage points [9] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.39%, with the industrial metals sector performing best at +8.43% [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.54, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [10]