每经编辑｜彭水萍 7月16日养殖ETF（159865）上涨0.99%，位居市场前列。近10日上涨幅度为1.99%。 来源：WIND 从直接原因来看，生猪市场价格于6月末触底回升，从底部的14.1元/kg上涨至15.1元/kg，随后又有一定的回落。 来源：卓创资讯、中衍期货 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方 式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，均属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基 金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风险，提请投资者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。 生猪需求存在较为稳定的季节性，受春节影响四季度至次年年初往往是消费旺季，而目前处于消费淡季。目前猪产业链下游屠宰开工率略强于往年同期， 但差距不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The demand in the off - season shows resilience and does not decline significantly as expected. The supply - demand in June is basically balanced with a flat inventory trend. Currently, the supply contraction expectation affects the market, and the improved market sentiment leads to price rebounds. In early and mid - July, Tangshan implements production restrictions, providing short - term support for the spot market. The reference fluctuation range for the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3150 - 3300, and for the rebar, it is 3050 - 3150 [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. This week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports also declined. On the demand side, due to increased steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions, the molten iron output decreased. The molten iron is expected to continue to decline in July, with an average of 230 - 240 tons. In the short term, iron ore will oscillate strongly, while in the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. It is recommended to go long on iron ore 2509 at low prices and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade with a reference range of 700 - 750 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - As of yesterday's close, both coke and coking coal futures showed an oscillating upward trend, and the spot markets were stable with a slight upward bias. For coke, the fourth round of price cuts landed on June 23, and a phased bottom is emerging. On the supply side, after the end of environmental inspections in June, some coal mines are expected to resume production. On the demand side, there are rumors of environmental production restrictions in Tangshan, and the molten iron output is expected to decline. For coking coal, the domestic coking coal auction market is warming up, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand from coking plants has slightly declined, but the downstream replenishment efforts have increased. It is recommended to hedge coke 2601 and coking coal 2601 at high prices, go long on coke 2509 and coking coal 2509 at low prices after corrections, and conduct 9 - 1 calendar spread trades [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3150, 3160, and 3210 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3098, 3063, and 3087 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3230, 3140, and 3210 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3206, 3190, and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, and the billet price is 2910 yuan/ton. The profits of East China hot - rolled coils, Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar, Jiangsu converter rebar, etc., show different degrees of decline [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output is 240.8 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (- 0.6%). The output of five major steel products is 885.2 tons, an increase of 4.2 tons (0.5%). Rebar output is 217.8 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons (1.5%), and hot - rolled coil output is 328.1 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons (0.3%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1339.9 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons (0.0%). Rebar inventory is 545.2 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons (- 0.7%), and hot - rolled coil inventory is 341.2 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons (- 1.1%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume is 240.8 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (- 0.6%). The apparent demand for five major steel products is 885.2 tons, an increase of 5.4 tons (0.6%), the apparent demand for rebar is 219.9 tons, an increase of 5.0 tons (2.3%), and for hot - rolled coils, it is 326.3 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons (- 0.6%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders show an increase of 0.3%. The 09 - contract basis of some powders shows a significant decline. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.0 (- 2.3%), the 9 - 1 spread increased by 0.5 (1.9%), and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 (2.9%) [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2483.9 tons, an increase of 120.9 tons (5.1%). The global shipment volume (weekly) is 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 362.7 tons (- 10.8%). The national monthly import volume is 9813.1 tons, a decrease of 500.3 tons (- 4.9%) [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 240.9 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons (- 0.6%). The 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume (weekly) is 319.3 tons, a decrease of 6.6 tons (- 2.0%). The national monthly pig iron output is 7411.4 tons, an increase of 153.1 tons (2.1%), and the national monthly crude steel output is 8654.5 tons, an increase of 52.6 tons (0.6%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) is 13822.73 tons, a decrease of 55.7 tons (- 0.4%). The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8918.6 tons, an increase of 71.1 tons (0.8%) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices showed an oscillating upward trend, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward bias. The fourth round of coke price cuts landed on June 23. Coking coal futures also rose, and the spot market showed a bottom - building and rebound trend [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 64.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons (- 0.24%). The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 47.5 tons, an increase of 0.0 tons (0.1%). The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines is 865.3 tons, an increase of 12.4 tons (1.5%), and the clean coal output is 442.3 tons, an increase of 7.4 tons (1.7%) [5]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 240.9 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons (- 0.6%). The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 64.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons (- 0.2%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 47.5 tons, an increase of 0.0 tons (0.1%) [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory is 930.7 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons (- 1.1%). The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 789.6 tons, an increase of 8.4 tons (1.1%) [5].

数据来源：Wind、Mystee、富宝资讯、广发期货发展研究中心。请仔细阅读报告尾端免费声明。 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1297 2025年7月9日 | | | 周敏波 | 0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 車位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3150 | 3150 | 0 | 67 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3160 | 3160 | 0 | 77 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3210 | 3210 | 0 | 127 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3092 | 3089 | 3 | 58 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3063 | 3061 | 2 | 87 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3083 | 3080 | 3 | 67 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3230 | 3230 | 0 | 30 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 314 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into price movements, production rates, and market conditions. Group 1: Liquidity - The London gold spot price increased by 1.83% week-on-week [2] - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for February 2025 is at 46.65, down 0.86% from the previous month [2] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -6.6 percentage points in January 2025, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In late February, key enterprises' average daily crude steel production reached a new high of 2.259 million tons [3] - Weekly price changes include rebar up by 0.30% and cement price index up by 2.06%, while iron ore decreased by 3.73% [3] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires increased by 0.96 percentage points, 1.00 percentage points, 0.80 percentage points, and 0.21 percentage points respectively [3] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass changed by 0.34% and -1.57% respectively, with flat glass profit at -17 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1323 yuan/ton [4] - The flat glass operating rate remained stable at 76.38% [4] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.12%, copper up by 2.57%, and aluminum up by 1.21% [5] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 82.78%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points [5] - The PMI new orders index for February is at 51.10%, up by 1.9 percentage points [5] Group 5: Subcategories - Iron ore spot price decreased by 3.73%, while prebaked anode prices reached a nearly 10-month high [6] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive profit of 441.35 yuan/ton, down by 40.71% [6] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,870 yuan/ton, up by 1.21%, with estimated profit at 2,748 yuan/ton (excluding tax), down by 15.43% [6] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.20 this week [7] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 120 yuan/ton [7] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 640 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [7] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in February 2025 is at 48.60%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1211.15 points, down by 3.16% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 73.70%, down by 0.80 percentage points [9] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.39%, with the industrial metals sector performing best at +8.43% [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.54, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [10]