Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia has begun to cut oil production due to saturated storage facilities, leading to a significant rise in international oil prices, which have increased by approximately 60% since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Impact - On March 9, international oil prices surged, with Brent crude reaching a peak of $119.5 per barrel, marking a substantial increase [1]. - The rapid increase in oil prices has led to a rise in costs for petrochemical products and disrupted the price relationship between crude oil and other energy products, causing a broad increase in the energy market [1][5]. - The coal and oilseed sectors have seen significant price increases, with coal and oilseed futures rising by 7.53% and 6.09%, respectively, following the oil price surge [5]. Group 2: Energy Market Dynamics - The relationship between crude oil and other commodities, such as coal and vegetable oils, is influenced by the rising oil prices, which enhance the attractiveness of alternatives like coal for producing chemicals [5][7]. - The economic viability of coal chemical processes improves significantly when Brent crude prices exceed $80 per barrel, indicating a strong profitability zone for coal-based production [5]. - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased the appeal of vegetable oils, such as palm oil, as raw materials for biodiesel, leading to a spike in palm oil futures [7][8]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Market Risks - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses risks to the supply chain, potentially affecting domestic markets, including livestock feed costs, as rising oil prices impact the prices of feed ingredients like soybean meal [8][10]. - Despite the short-term price increases in coal and oilseed futures, the underlying supply-demand dynamics and external uncertainties could lead to increased volatility in these markets [10][12]. - The domestic coal market remains largely self-sufficient, with a 90% self-supply ratio, which may mitigate some external price pressures compared to oil products [12].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, highlighting the liquidity situation, construction and real estate chains, industrial products, pricing dynamics, and export conditions, with a focus on potential investment opportunities and market movements. Group 1: Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for January 2026 is at 50.27, an increase of 6.62% month-on-month [3] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, a decrease of 1.60 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The current price of London gold is $4,981 per ounce [3] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces is expected to be at the highest level for January in five years [4] - Weekly price changes include rebar down 1.81%, cement price index down 0.87%, rubber down 0.32%, coke unchanged, coking coal up 1.07%, and iron ore down 2.92% [4] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 0.36 percentage points, while cement and asphalt operating rates decreased by 4.30 percentage points and increased by 3.7 percentage points, respectively [4] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide price increasing by 0.76% and glass price decreasing by 0.73% [5] - The gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1,740 yuan per ton, while the flat glass operating rate is 73.89% [5] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down 1.55%, copper down 0.71%, and aluminum up 0.54%, with corresponding gross profit changes showing a turnaround to profit for cold-rolled steel and an increase in losses for copper and aluminum [6] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 74.56%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points [6] Group 5: Specific Products - The price of oriented silicon steel has reached a new low since 2018 [7] - The price of graphite electrodes is 19,000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 2,001.58 yuan per ton [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 24,130 yuan per ton, with a profit of 6,911 yuan per ton (excluding tax), an increase of 1.83% [7] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver has reached the lowest level since 2013 [8] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.01, and the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 70 yuan per ton [8] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 150 yuan per ton, a decrease of 25% from the previous week [8] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in December is 49.00%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points month-on-month [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,208.75 points, a decrease of 0.09% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 75.90%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points [9] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.62%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being oil and petrochemicals, which increased by 7.71% [10] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 34.11% and 100.00%, respectively [10] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 0.51, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the price of oriented silicon steel has reached its lowest level since 2018, indicating potential market challenges [2] - The liquidity indicators show that gold prices have reached a historical high, with the London gold spot price at $4,981 per ounce, reflecting strong demand [11] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained in the medium to long term, which could lead to a recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for January 2026 is at 50.27, up 6.62% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, down 1.60 percentage points month-on-month [11] - The current London gold price is $4,981 per ounce, reflecting an 8.31% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate in January is expected to be at its highest level for the same period in five years [20] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.51%, up 0.03 percentage points week-on-week [39] - The report notes that the prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide priced at 13,300 yuan per ton, up 0.76% week-on-week [76] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at 74.56%, up 1.12 percentage points [2] - The report indicates that the price of electrolytic aluminum is 24,130 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.54% increase [2] - The price of tungsten concentrate is 543,000 yuan per ton, up 6.37% from the previous week [2] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.62%, while the best-performing sector was oil and petrochemicals, which increased by 7.71% [4] - The PB ratio of the steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently at 0.51, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in December was 49.00%, up 1.4 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1,208.75 points, down 0.09% [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 75.90%, up 0.20 percentage points [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that hot-rolled inventory is at its highest level for the same period in five years, indicating potential supply chain pressures [41] - The liquidity environment is characterized by a historical high in gold prices, with the London gold spot price reaching $4,533 per ounce [11] - The report notes a decline in construction activity, with national real estate new starts down 20.50% year-on-year for the first 11 months of 2025 [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for December 2025 is at 47.15, down 10.19% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.1 percentage points in November 2025, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [18] - The current London gold price is $4,533 per ounce, reflecting a 4.41% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Hot-rolled inventory is at the highest level for the same period in five years, with rebar prices down 1.20% this week [41] - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is at 85%, unchanged from the previous week [10] - The cement price index has decreased by 0.49% this week, with a national cement utilization rate of 30.14%, down 0.9 percentage points [59] Industrial Chain - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 72.05%, up 0.66 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached a new high since 2012, at 460,500 yuan per ton, up 6.35% from last week [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22,060 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.01% increase week-on-week [10] Price Relationships - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar has turned positive, with the current difference at 10 yuan per ton [3] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.02 this week [3] - The price of stainless steel hot-rolled and electrolytic nickel has a ratio of 0.10 [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November is 47.60%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1,146.67 points, up 1.95% week-on-week [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 75.30%, down 1.20 percentage points from the previous week [3] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.95%, with the chemical sector performing best at +4.23% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained, leading to potential recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant trends in liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, indicating a mixed economic outlook with specific sectors showing growth while others face challenges. Group 1: Liquidity - The London gold spot price reached a historical high this week, increasing by 3.74% compared to last week [3] - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for May 2025 is at 49.09, up by 2.20% month-on-month [3] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in May 2025 is -5.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [3] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in early June 2025 is 2.159 million tons, up by 3.25% month-on-month [4] - Price changes this week include rebar down by 2.23%, cement price index up by 1.86%, rubber up by 2.21%, coke down by 5.65%, coking coal down by 1.05%, and iron ore down by 1.36% [4] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, asphalt, and full steel tire operating rates changed by -0.07 percentage points, +0.90 percentage points, -1.0 percentage points, and -2.23 percentage points respectively [4] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass remained unchanged this week, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -762 yuan/ton [5] - The operating rate of flat glass this week is 75.42% [5] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity prices this week include cold-rolled steel up by 0.54%, copper up by 0.10%, and aluminum up by 2.87%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +78.85%, -18.19%, and +24.59% respectively [6] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 77.98%, an increase of 4.12 percentage points [6] Group 5: Subcategories - Tungsten concentrate prices remain at the highest level since 2011 [7] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down by 1.39% [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,760 yuan/ton, up by 2.87%, with estimated profit at 3,004 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up by 24.59% [7] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore this week is 4.13 [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 130 yuan/ton this week [8] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 280 yuan/ton, down by 100 yuan/ton [8] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in May 2025 is 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points [9] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) this week is 1,243.05 points, up by 7.63% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 79.50%, up by 1.30 percentage points [9] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.25% this week, with the best-performing cyclical sector being commercial vehicles, up by 7.24% [10] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently 0.51, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into price movements, production rates, and market conditions. Group 1: Liquidity - The London gold spot price increased by 1.83% week-on-week [2] - The BCI small enterprise financing environment index for February 2025 is at 46.65, down 0.86% from the previous month [2] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -6.6 percentage points in January 2025, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In late February, key enterprises' average daily crude steel production reached a new high of 2.259 million tons [3] - Weekly price changes include rebar up by 0.30% and cement price index up by 2.06%, while iron ore decreased by 3.73% [3] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires increased by 0.96 percentage points, 1.00 percentage points, 0.80 percentage points, and 0.21 percentage points respectively [3] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass changed by 0.34% and -1.57% respectively, with flat glass profit at -17 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1323 yuan/ton [4] - The flat glass operating rate remained stable at 76.38% [4] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.12%, copper up by 2.57%, and aluminum up by 1.21% [5] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 82.78%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points [5] - The PMI new orders index for February is at 51.10%, up by 1.9 percentage points [5] Group 5: Subcategories - Iron ore spot price decreased by 3.73%, while prebaked anode prices reached a nearly 10-month high [6] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive profit of 441.35 yuan/ton, down by 40.71% [6] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,870 yuan/ton, up by 1.21%, with estimated profit at 2,748 yuan/ton (excluding tax), down by 15.43% [6] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.20 this week [7] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 120 yuan/ton [7] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 640 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [7] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in February 2025 is at 48.60%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1211.15 points, down by 3.16% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 73.70%, down by 0.80 percentage points [9] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.39%, with the industrial metals sector performing best at +8.43% [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.54, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [10]