供给刚性

Search documents
商品期货掀上涨浪潮 涨价题材股受关注
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-07-23 18:39
| | | 小市值涨价题材股市值排名 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 简称 | 年内涨跌幅 (%) | 总市值 (亿元) | 评级机构数 (家) | 行业 | | 600319 | 亚星化学 | 42.08 | 26.44 | 1 | 氯碱 | | 600876 | 凯盛新能 | 18.02 | 44.32 | 4 | 玻璃制造 | | 001201 | 东瑞股份 | 13.59 | 46.32 | 1 | 生猪养殖 | | 002613 | 北玻股份 | 10.03 | 48.54 | 2 | 玻璃制造 | | 603155 | 新亚 强 | 19.48 | 49.29 | 1 | 有机硅 | | 000655 | 金岭矿业 | 39.15 | 50.31 | 2 | 铁矿石 | | 300727 | 润禾材料 | 11.76 | 51.77 | 1 | 有机硅 | | 300041 | 回天新材 | 15.16 | 58.29 | 5 | 有机硅 | | 600397 | 安源煤业 | 44.79 | 60.49 | 1 | 动力煤 ...
供给刚性持续,静待需求拐点
HUAXI Securities· 2025-02-21 08:20
Demand Side - In 2024, global oil demand growth slows to 1.0%, reaching 103.1 million barrels per day, primarily due to a slowdown in China's oil demand growth, while non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia, contribute significantly to the increase [9][18][20] - The overall maritime oil trade volume is expected to decline by 0.7% year-on-year, but the oil ton-mile trade volume sees a 2.4% increase due to heightened cargo volumes on long-distance routes and geopolitical risks affecting shipping schedules [1][2] Supply Side - The global oil transportation market capacity increases slightly by 0.2% in 2024, but the capacity of VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) continues to shrink, with only one new ship delivered throughout the year [2][3] - The aging fleet poses a significant challenge, with over 42% of oil tankers being over 15 years old, and a peak in scrapping expected post-2025, while current orders are insufficient to cover the capacity loss from older ships [2][3] 2025 Supply and Demand Outlook - The supply side for oil transportation in 2025 will be influenced by sanctions that could accelerate the clearing of effective capacity, leading to further shortages in fleet supply [3] - Demand growth in 2025 will hinge on India's economic development and China's economic recovery, with OPEC+'s production increase plans being critical [3][4] Investment Recommendations - In 2025, the recovery of demand will determine the extent of price increases in the oil shipping market, with international events influencing short-term price elasticity [4] - Beneficiary stocks include COSCO Shipping Energy (A/H) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SH) [4]