消息面上，据中国交通运输部，10月1日至8日（国庆中秋假期），累计全社会跨区域人员流动量预计达到 24.32亿人次，创历史同期新高。另外，中金指出，航司数据方面，根据Wind，10.1-10.7日国内航司日均客 流量同比增长3%，平均单价同比减少4%，对比五一假期（客运量同比增长13%，平均单价下滑9%）客运 量同比增速收窄。 航空股早盘普遍反弹，截至发稿， 涨7.87%，报4.11港元； 涨5.72%，报5.73港元。 招商证券日前研报指出，近期民航多次强调"反内卷"，7月22日，2025年全国民航年中工作电视电话会议 上，围绕扎实做好2025年下半年民航工作，宋志勇提出九点要求，其中第三点要求加快构建民航领域统一 大市场，综合整治行业"内卷式"竞争。今年以来板块总体走势较弱，关注Q4低基数下供需修复、"反内 卷"政策及原油增产等对股价的催化作用。 编辑/wendey ...

Group 1: Glass Market Dynamics - The glass market is currently facing challenges with a slowdown in supply-demand recovery, despite the typical demand-driven period in summer and autumn and the effectiveness of domestic consumption support policies [1] - Short-term inventory rebound is putting pressure on supply-demand digestion, making market trends more complex due to intertwining policy expectations and short-term consumption drivers [1] - In July and August, domestic glass prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with July's rapid price rebound driven by policy expectations not translating into significant improvements in the actual fundamentals [5] Group 2: Soda Ash Market Dynamics - The soda ash market is showing positive signs with a trend towards recovery after short-term adjustments from both supply and demand sides, as indicated by a two-week decline in inventory [3] - In August, the market shifted focus from expectations to reality, with spot prices falling leading to a contraction in supply, increased factory maintenance, and a decrease in industry operating rates [3][5] - As of last week, soda ash production enterprise inventory decreased by approximately 150,000 tons compared to peak levels, laying a good foundation for the consumption season in September [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a steady demand but is facing challenges due to high prices suppressing procurement and weak terminal orders [1][14] - The aluminum sector is experiencing a mild recovery with increased operating rates among downstream processing enterprises [2][15] - Gold maintains its appeal as a safe-haven asset despite a slight decrease in price, influenced by geopolitical events and rising U.S. debt [3][16] - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from supply tightening and policy changes, with prices showing an upward trend [4][36] - The antimony market is stabilizing with potential for price recovery due to improved export expectations and domestic production cuts [4][38] - Molybdenum prices are expected to rise as demand from the steel industry increases and supply remains tight [4][39] - Tin prices are supported by strong inventory levels and demand from sectors like AI and photovoltaics [4][40] Summary by Sections 1. Base and Precious Metals Market Overview - Copper prices decreased by 0.08% to $9,760.00 per ton on LME, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.73% to 79,100 yuan per ton [1][14] - Aluminum prices fell by 0.46% to $2,603.00 per ton on LME, with a slight increase in Shanghai aluminum [2][15] - Gold prices decreased by 0.36% to $3,381.70 per ounce, with increased holdings in SPDR Gold Trust [3][16] 2. Base and Precious Metals Fundamental Updates 2.1 Copper - Domestic copper inventory decreased to 125,600 tons, with a forecasted slight drop in operating rates due to weak demand [1][14] 2.2 Aluminum - Operating rates in the aluminum processing sector increased to 59.5%, indicating a mild recovery [2][15] 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset remains despite geopolitical tensions and rising U.S. debt levels [3][16] 3. Minor Metals and Rare Earth Market Overview - Rare earth prices are on the rise due to supply constraints and policy changes, with significant benefits expected for leading companies in the sector [4][36] - Antimony prices are stabilizing with potential for recovery driven by export expectations and domestic production cuts [4][38] - Molybdenum prices are anticipated to rise due to increased demand from the steel industry and low inventory levels [4][39] - Tin prices are supported by strong inventory levels and demand from sectors like AI and photovoltaics [4][40]