Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the sentiment in the chemical market was poor, and soda ash followed the sector with weak fluctuations. During the domestic long - holiday, soda ash production facilities had narrow adjustments, with individual companies having short - term shutdowns, resulting in a narrow decline in supply. Downstream demand was mediocre, and overall purchasing enthusiasm was low, with limited fundamental drivers. Given the fundamental situation of oversupply, it is expected that the short - term soda ash futures market may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the progress of the second - phase capacity release of Yuanxing and the restocking situation of downstream enterprises [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On October 9, 2025, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward. The opening price of soda ash 2601 (SA601) was 1256 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1268 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1237 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton or 1.73% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 756,000 lots, a decrease of 27,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,317,000 lots, an increase of 67,000 lots from the previous day [2] - **Variety Price**: The opening, highest, lowest, and closing prices of different soda ash futures contracts on October 9, 2025, are provided, including soda ash 2609, soda ash 2601 M, and soda ash 2605 [4] 3.2 Spot Market - On October 9, 2025, the domestic soda ash spot market quotes are presented in a price summary table, but the specific prices in the table are not detailed in the text [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Chain - Related**: On October 9, 2025, the spot price of 5.00mm large - size glass in North China was reported at 1230 yuan/ton [6] - **Fundamental - Related**: As of October 9, 2025, the total domestic soda ash inventory was 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 59,900 tons compared to before the holiday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 739,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,400 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 920,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,500 tons [6] 3.4 Market Outlook - Due to the fundamental situation of oversupply, the short - term soda ash futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the progress of the second - phase capacity release of Yuanxing and the restocking situation of downstream enterprises [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On September 19, 2025, the chemical market sentiment was average. The terminal of soda ash replenished stocks before the holiday, and the intraday market was weakly stable. Recently, the soda ash plants were under maintenance, and the overall supply decreased slightly from the high level. In the short term, the profitability of downstream glass increased, and some manufacturers stocked up before the holiday, driving the inventory reduction of soda ash plants. After the soda ash futures rebounded, it declined. With the fundamental situation of supply exceeding demand, it is expected that the short - term trend of soda ash futures may maintain range - bound fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of policies such as environmental protection and production restrictions on the supply side and changes in macro - sentiment [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On September 19, 2025, the soda ash futures market showed a volatile trend. The opening price of soda ash 2601 (SA601) was 1305 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1321 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1301 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1318 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 922,000 lots, a decrease of 574,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.382 million lots, a decrease of 9942 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Price | Contract Name | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soda Ash 2511 | 1227 | 1242 | 1222 | 1238 | - 1 | - 0.08% | 174,755 | 132,155 | | Soda Ash 2601 M | 1305 | 1321 | 1301 | 1318 | 1 | 0.08% | 922,285 | 1,381,981 | | Soda Ash 2605 | 1397 | 1412 | 1394 | 1407 | 2 | 0.14% | 30,296 | 210,144 | [3] 3.2 Spot Market - On September 19, 2025, the domestic soda ash spot market prices in various regions remained unchanged compared with September 18. For example, in North China, the price of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton; in East China, the price of light soda ash was 1130 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, etc [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry Chain - related - Before the holiday, glass slightly replenished stocks, and the demand support was average. In September, the profit of photovoltaic glass turned from loss to profit, and terminal component manufacturers expanded raw material procurement, which generally supported the increase in soda ash demand. However, there were differences in the sales situation among different enterprises, and the confidence in the future market was slightly divided [6] 3.3.2 Fundamental - related - This week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 787,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 105.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.39% [6]

Group 1: Glass Market Dynamics - The glass market is currently facing challenges with a slowdown in supply-demand recovery, despite the typical demand-driven period in summer and autumn and the effectiveness of domestic consumption support policies [1] - Short-term inventory rebound is putting pressure on supply-demand digestion, making market trends more complex due to intertwining policy expectations and short-term consumption drivers [1] - In July and August, domestic glass prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with July's rapid price rebound driven by policy expectations not translating into significant improvements in the actual fundamentals [5] Group 2: Soda Ash Market Dynamics - The soda ash market is showing positive signs with a trend towards recovery after short-term adjustments from both supply and demand sides, as indicated by a two-week decline in inventory [3] - In August, the market shifted focus from expectations to reality, with spot prices falling leading to a contraction in supply, increased factory maintenance, and a decrease in industry operating rates [3][5] - As of last week, soda ash production enterprise inventory decreased by approximately 150,000 tons compared to peak levels, laying a good foundation for the consumption season in September [3]

Group 1: Urea Market - Urea futures prices experienced wide fluctuations, closing at 1897 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 0.32% [1] - Urea supply decreased with a daily production of 192,800 tons, down by 980 tons from the previous day [1] - The overall production and sales rate in major regions was 42%, showing a day-on-day decline [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures prices opened high but weakened, closing at 1291 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.84% [1] - The industry operating rate fell to 75.45%, with ongoing maintenance plans expected to further reduce supply [1] - Demand remained stable but cautious, with downstream purchasing activity being low [1] Group 3: Glass Market - Glass futures prices declined, closing at 1016 CNY/ton, down 1.93% [1] - The average price of float glass in the domestic market was 1267 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3 CNY from the previous day [1] - The industry maintained a daily melting capacity of 155,800 tons, with manufacturers focusing on sales to avoid high inventory levels [1]