1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: L, PP neutral; - Inter - term: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - PE: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, leading to an enhanced supply surplus expectation and weak demand. International oil prices have fallen, weakening cost - side support. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is limited. After the price drops to a low level, it will fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances and macro - policy dynamics [2]. - PP: International oil prices have corrected, weakening oil - based cost support. There are still supply - demand contradictions, and short - term trends are still guided by the cost side. The supply - side pressure still exists, and demand is slowly recovering. The weak supply - demand fundamentals have not reversed, and the sustainability of price increases may be limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the cost side and the start - stop situation of PDH marginal devices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 7009 yuan/ton (+24), PP main contract at 6685 yuan/ton (+28). LL North China spot was 6960 yuan/ton (-20), LL East China spot at 7060 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 6610 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 49 yuan/ton (-44), LL East China basis at 51 yuan/ton (-24), PP East China basis at - 75 yuan/ton (-28) [1]. - Upstream supply: PE operating rate was 81.5% (-0.3%), PP operating rate was 75.9% (-2.3%) [1]. - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 382.3 yuan/ton (+110.9), PP oil - based production profit was - 307.7 yuan/ton (+110.9), PDH - based PP production profit was 54.5 yuan/ton (+45.3) [1]. - Import and export: LL import profit was - 16.3 yuan/ton (+20.7), PP import profit was - 295.4 yuan/ton (+10.4), PP export profit was - 16.6 US dollars/ton (-1.3) [1]. - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 47.1% (+4.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.6% (+0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.4% (+0.1%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+0.2%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Cost - side support weakens, supply is expected to increase, demand is limited, and short - term prices will fluctuate with limited upside space [2]. - PP: Cost - side support weakens, supply - demand contradictions remain, and the sustainability of price increases is limited [2]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP; - Inter - term: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the analysis of various energy and chemical products, including their market logic, technical analysis, and trading strategies. It suggests waiting for the end of the crude oil rebound and looking for opportunities in the low prices of weak energy and chemical products during the crude oil rebound. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: The US Treasury's sanctions on two major Russian oil companies have shifted the short - term logic to geopolitical disturbances. After the market digests the short - term geopolitical benefits, it will return to supply - demand drivers [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it continued to rebound with reduced positions, but the trading volume was insufficient after the intraday high, closing with a long upper shadow. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the end of the rebound, and the short - term support is at the 459 level [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to cover short positions after breaking the short - term support [2]. 2. Benzene Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved due to increased maintenance and a small decline in production, the port inventory, a characteristic of hazardous chemicals, is still slowly accumulating and is at a sky - high level year - on - year. There is a risk of price collapse under the pressure of over - inventory. The market has already priced in some expectations, so no short - chasing is recommended [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it tested the pressure from a high position, then moved lower and closed down with a large increase in positions. The short - term downward structure remains unchanged. After the contract change, the short - term pressure level for the December contract is at the 6630 level [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level and consider shorting again if there is a rebound [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: The weather in Southeast Asia has improved, and the supply is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter. The cost support is weakening, and the pressure of slow de - stocking of the large domestic inventory remains high [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day. The short - term pressure level is at the 15450 level [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with a stop - profit reference at the 15450 level [7]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of synthetic rubber is not significant. The tire enterprises' high - inventory pressure remains, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of butadiene may decline rapidly, driving the synthetic rubber price down [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day. Pay attention to the suppression of the pressure level, with the short - term pressure at the 11300 level [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with a stop - profit reference at the 11300 level [11]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation of PX improved slightly last week, but the overall high - supply pattern remains unchanged. Its main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the support at the 6425 level [13]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see at the hourly level [13]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: Under the expectation of new device production and restart, the supply pressure of PTA is still large, and the demand remains flat. The main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the short - term support at the 4470 level [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see at the hourly level [16]. 7. PP - **Logic**: The expected commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant in mid - October will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the overseas demand is also low. The cost - side pressure is brought by the decline of crude oil [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the short - term pressure at the 6740 level. There was a reverse - wrapping pattern near the pressure, but the trading volume was insufficient [20]. - **Strategy**: Continue to wait and see at the hourly level [20]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: The monthly - spread structure has strengthened this week, indicating potential long - trading opportunities. Due to seasonal factors, the 01 contract of methanol has some long - trading logic compared with other energy and chemical products. However, the short - term long - trading time has not arrived. The domestic supply is high, and the inventory is difficult to reduce [22][24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. Today, it declined with increased positions, with the short - term pressure at the 2320 level [24]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level cautiously, with the 2320 level on the hourly line as the final stop - profit level. Consider using methanol as a long - position in the hedging strategy after it breaks through the pressure level [24]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: Under the "subsidizing chlorine with alkali" model, the supply of PVC maintains high - level production. The domestic real - estate demand is still low year - on - year, and the social inventory continues to accumulate [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 4800 level [28]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level [28]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The restart of previously overhauled devices and the expected increase in production capacity have increased the supply pressure. The port inventory has started to accumulate, and the support of low inventory has disappeared [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the short - term support below 4045 [29]. - **Strategy**: Stop - profit on short positions at the hourly level [29]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The expected commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant in mid - October will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the cost - side is affected by the decline of crude oil [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. Today, it rebounded with reduced positions and broke through the short - term pressure at the 6940 level. The short - term structure has turned bullish [31]. - **Strategy**: Stop - profit on the remaining short positions at the hourly level [31]. 12. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern of soda ash has intensified. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The market is under downward pressure [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the downward structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at the 1260 level [35]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level [35]. 13. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply pressure will increase in the medium - term due to the recovery of previously overhauled devices and the commissioning of new devices. The downstream demand is weak, with limited profit in the alumina industry [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the downward structure continues. The short - term pressure is at the 2470 level [36]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see after stopping - profit before the holiday, as there is no good entry point currently [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides daily market analysis and trading strategies for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others. Most products are in a bearish medium - term structure, with short - term trends varying. The analysis combines fundamental and technical aspects to guide trading decisions. 3. Summary by Product (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Sanctions on Russian oil companies shifted the short - term logic to geopolitical factors. After the short - term geopolitical influence is digested, the market will return to supply - demand drivers. The current rise is a rebound [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 447 today, but the volume shows a reduction in positions, indicating a rebound. The short - term support is at 456 [2]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions and wait to re - enter short positions after breaking the short - term support [2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved due to reduced production from maintenance, the port inventory is still accumulating, and the seasonal inventory accumulation in January is approaching. There is a risk of price collapse, but the market has already priced in some expectations [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. The intraday trend was volatile today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 6570 [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly - level, and consider taking profit and re - shorting on rebounds. Pay attention to contract roll - over [5]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, the cost support is weakening, and the high inventory in China is difficult to reduce [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. There was a small rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 15450 [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly - level, with a stop - profit reference of 15450 [7]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand fundamentals have little short - term contradiction. The demand recovery is mainly due to post - holiday seasonality, and the supply is expected to increase. The prices of crude oil and butadiene are the main driving factors, and the price of butadiene may decline [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. There was a small rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 11300 [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly - level, with a stop - profit reference of 11300 [11]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation improved slightly last week, but the high - supply pattern remains. The price is mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 6460 - 6480 with reduced positions today. The support is at 6425 [13]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions on the hourly - level [13]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The supply pressure is high due to expected new production and restart of plants, and the demand is flat. The price is mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term rise. There was a small rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term support is at 4470 [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait and observe on the hourly - level [16]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The expected new production from Guangxi Petrochemical will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the overseas demand is low. The cost is under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. There was a rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 6740 [20]. - **Strategy**: Wait and observe on the hourly - level [20]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The monthly spread structure has strengthened, indicating potential long - trading opportunities in the future. However, currently, the high domestic supply and inventory are suppressing the price. The seasonal gas - limit in Iran may bring long - trading opportunities later [22][24]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. There was a rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 2320 [24]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly - level cautiously, with a stop - profit at 2320. Consider using methanol as a long - position in a hedging strategy after breaking through the pressure [24]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: The supply is high due to the "chlor - alkali balance" strategy. The domestic real - estate demand is low, and the social inventory is accumulating [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. The intraday trend was volatile today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 4800 [27]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly - level [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The restart of previously - shut - down plants and expected new production are increasing the supply pressure. The port inventory is starting to accumulate, and the low - inventory support is disappearing [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 4060 with reduced positions today. The short - term support is below 4045 [28]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions on the hourly - level [28]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The expected new production from Guangxi Petrochemical will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the cost is under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 6940 with reduced positions today [32]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on the remaining short positions on the hourly - level [32]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation is intensifying. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The macro - environment is also bearish [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. There was a rebound with reduced positions today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 1260 [34]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly - level [34]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply pressure will increase in the medium - term due to the restart of previously - shut - down plants and new production. The downstream demand from alumina is limited, and the overall demand is stable. The supply - demand situation is bearish [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. The intraday trend was volatile today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 2470 [36]. - **Strategy**: Wait and observe after taking profit before the holiday, as there is no good entry point currently [36].