1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: L, PP neutral; - Inter - term: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - PE: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, leading to an enhanced supply surplus expectation and weak demand. International oil prices have fallen, weakening cost - side support. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is limited. After the price drops to a low level, it will fluctuate in the short term, and the upside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances and macro - policy dynamics [2]. - PP: International oil prices have corrected, weakening oil - based cost support. There are still supply - demand contradictions, and short - term trends are still guided by the cost side. The supply - side pressure still exists, and demand is slowly recovering. The weak supply - demand fundamentals have not reversed, and the sustainability of price increases may be limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the cost side and the start - stop situation of PDH marginal devices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 7009 yuan/ton (+24), PP main contract at 6685 yuan/ton (+28). LL North China spot was 6960 yuan/ton (-20), LL East China spot at 7060 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 6610 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 49 yuan/ton (-44), LL East China basis at 51 yuan/ton (-24), PP East China basis at - 75 yuan/ton (-28) [1]. - Upstream supply: PE operating rate was 81.5% (-0.3%), PP operating rate was 75.9% (-2.3%) [1]. - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 382.3 yuan/ton (+110.9), PP oil - based production profit was - 307.7 yuan/ton (+110.9), PDH - based PP production profit was 54.5 yuan/ton (+45.3) [1]. - Import and export: LL import profit was - 16.3 yuan/ton (+20.7), PP import profit was - 295.4 yuan/ton (+10.4), PP export profit was - 16.6 US dollars/ton (-1.3) [1]. - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 47.1% (+4.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.6% (+0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.4% (+0.1%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+0.2%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Cost - side support weakens, supply is expected to increase, demand is limited, and short - term prices will fluctuate with limited upside space [2]. - PP: Cost - side support weakens, supply - demand contradictions remain, and the sustainability of price increases is limited [2]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP; - Inter - term: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3]

等待原油反弹结束时点与原油反弹时弱势 能化品种新低机会 品种 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 原油 偏空 偏多 观望，等待空单回补机会 EB 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 PX 偏空 偏多 观望 PTA 偏空 偏多 观望 PP 偏空 偏空 观望 塑料 偏空 偏多 观望 甲醇 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 EG 偏空 偏多 观望 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PVC 偏空 偏空 空单持有 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 纯碱 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 烧碱 偏空 偏空 观望 板块观点汇总 行情日评： （一）原油： 逻辑：前夜凌晨美财政部对俄罗斯两大石油公司进行制裁，原油 短期逻辑转换至地缘扰动，盘面借助短期地缘利多对 10 月来快速下 跌进行修复，等待盘面消化完短期地缘利多后再回归供需驱动。 日度技术追踪：原油日线级别中期下跌结构，小时级别短期上涨 结构。今日延续减仓反弹，但盘中冲高后量能表现不足最终收长上影， 关注反弹结束可能，下方短期支撑关注 459 一线。策略上等待破短期 支撑后的空单回补机会。 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1.1：原油 2512 日线图 （二）苯乙烯： （四）合成橡胶： 逻辑：检修 ...

制裁扰动推动原油延续反弹， 等待反弹结束空单回补机会 品种 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 原油 偏空 偏多 空单止盈，等待回补机会 EB 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 PX 偏空 偏多 空单止盈 PTA 偏空 偏多 观望 PP 偏空 偏空 观望 塑料 偏空 偏多 剩余空单止盈 甲醇 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 EG 偏空 偏多 空单止盈 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PVC 偏空 偏空 空单持有 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 纯碱 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 烧碱 偏空 偏空 观望 板块观点汇总 行情日评： （一）原油： 逻辑：隔夜凌晨美财政部对俄罗斯两大石油公司进行制裁，原油 短期逻辑转换至地缘扰动，盘面借助短期地缘利多对 10 月来快速下 跌进行修复，等待盘面消化完短期地缘利多后再回归供需驱动。 日度技术追踪：原油日线级别中期下跌结构，小时级别短期上涨 结构。今日站上上方短期压力 447 一线后短期结构转多，但量能表现 减仓上行仍表明目前上涨为反弹看待，下方短期支撑关注 456 一线。 策略上空单止盈后等待破短期支撑后的再次回补机会。 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1.1：原油 2512 日线图 ...