1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to be gradually implemented in three steps: the core content will be announced on October 23, 2025; the full text of the Party's "15th Five - Year Plan Outline Suggestions" will be released in the following days; the full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan Outline" will be officially released after being approved by the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress in March 2026. The plan will inherit and innovate on previous goals, especially in key areas such as economic growth, technological innovation, and institutional reform [1]. - Five - year plans have a profound impact on the macro - underlying logic, economic context, and capital markets. They often lead to significant stock market rallies and clearly define core investment tracks. They also affect the supply and demand of commodities, thereby influencing prices [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 "15th Five - Year Plan" Later Implementation Process and Main Nodes - The implementation process will follow three steps: on October 23, 2025, the "Fourth Plenary Session" will release a communiqué with the core content of the "15th Five - Year Plan"; in the following days, the Party's "15th Five - Year Plan Suggestions" will be released, along with an explanation by the General Secretary; the State Council will compile the final version of the plan based on the Party's suggestions and submit it to the National People's Congress for approval in March 2026 [1][6]. 3.2 Five - Year Plan Document Framework Content Overview - The "Five - Year Plan Outline" includes a general introduction (covering economic situation judgment, guiding ideology, principles, and goals), specific area discussions (detailing key tasks in various fields), and a conclusion (emphasizing Party leadership, implementation, and guarantee mechanisms). Quantitative indicators in previous plans mainly cover five areas: economic development, people's well - being, ecological environment, innovation drive, and security [10]. 3.3 "15th Five - Year Plan" Key Content Outlook 3.3.1 Economic Growth Target Setting - Long - term growth targets require China to reach the level of a high - income country by the end of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and double its economic aggregate or per - capita income by 2035. As of 2024, China's per - capita GDP was $13,300. To reach the minimum threshold of a moderately developed country ($24,000) by 2035, the average nominal growth rate from 2026 - 2035 should be no less than 5.6% (assuming a 4.5% nominal growth rate in 2025). The actual GDP growth rate from 2026 - 2035 should be around 4%. Market expectations suggest setting a target of around 5% in 2026 and gradually reducing it to 4.8% [17][18][23]. 3.3.2 Key Work Task Deployment - The "15th Five - Year Plan" will continue to focus on economic, institutional, industrial, innovation, people's well - being, and ecological fields. Key areas include institutional reform, technological innovation, domestic demand expansion, green development, and industrial chain security. New quality productivity development is expected to accelerate, and the plan will also address issues such as effective demand shortage and international competition [24][29][30]. 3.4 Five - Year Plan's Market Impact 3.4.1 Five - Year Plans as Investment Mainlines - Five - year plans reshape the economic underlying logic, clarify development priorities, and provide clear investment tracks for the capital market. Different periods have seen different industries thrive, such as traditional cyclical industries during the "11th Five - Year Plan" and technology industries during the "12th" and "13th Five - Year Plans" [33]. 3.4.2 Stock Market Impact - Historically, stock markets have often rallied around the release of five - year plans. Currently, the technology - growth sector has outperformed the market, with some sub - themes like optical modules and AI computing power showing significant excess returns. If the "15th Five - Year Plan" has unexpected content, it will create short - term trading opportunities and support medium - term technology and reform - related investments [35][37]. 3.4.3 Commodity Market Impact - Five - year plans affect commodity supply and demand through national economic logic, industrial policies, and resource security strategies. They have led to a shift in demand from traditional commodities like steel and cement to manufacturing and new - energy - related metals. Supply - side reforms and national policies also influence commodity prices [40].

Group 1 - The loss of confidence among the public in China's economic future is attributed to high housing prices resulting from the long-term expansion of the real estate market, which has burdened multiple generations with mortgage debt and limited their consumption capacity [1] - The widening wealth gap has led to a situation where high-income individuals can afford luxury consumption, while the majority of ordinary citizens struggle to maintain a low-consumption lifestyle, undermining the overall consumption power necessary for economic growth [1] - The continuous decline in the real estate and stock markets has significantly reduced residents' assets, causing widespread concern about the future direction of the economy [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government needs to focus on the demands and expectations of the people by formulating and implementing policies that align with public sentiment, as the recovery of the economy hinges on promoting domestic demand and consumption [3] - Accelerating income distribution reform is crucial to raise residents' income levels, which is essential for restoring public confidence in the economy and driving economic recovery [3] Group 3 - Simply accelerating income distribution reform is insufficient; the government must also enhance reform and opening-up efforts, deepen state-owned enterprise reforms, introduce more competitive mechanisms, and expand market access to foster innovation and development [5] - Strengthening financial regulation and improving the quality and efficiency of financial services are necessary to mitigate financial risks, alongside promoting technological innovation and structural adjustments in the economy [5] Group 4 - Despite facing internal and external uncertainties, there remains a belief in the potential for China's economic development, provided that the government maintains a clear direction and implements policies that meet public expectations [6] - There is optimism that with concerted efforts, new opportunities for economic growth can be created, injecting vitality into the economy and paving the way for a better future [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese passenger car market is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, particularly through the expansion of vehicle replacement subsidies [1][2][4] - The Shanghai government has announced that the vehicle replacement subsidy will now include old cars with foreign license plates, reflecting a trend seen in other provinces to attract consumers from surrounding areas [1][2] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued guidelines for the 2025 vehicle replacement program, which includes detailed subsidy standards and methods, leading to various local governments implementing specific measures [1][2] Group 2 - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" released in March emphasizes the importance of stimulating automobile consumption through various supportive policies, including the use of long-term special government bond funds for trade-in programs [2] - The plan allocates approximately 3 billion yuan in special government bonds for supporting the trade-in of consumer goods, which is expected to significantly enhance market vitality [2] - Data indicates that the number of vehicle trade-ins in 2024 is projected to exceed 6.8 million, marking a historical high, with a notable increase in vehicle scrappage rates in early 2023 [2] Group 3 - The China Automobile Dealers Association has highlighted the resilience of the domestic automobile market against U.S. tariffs, noting that the direct export volume of Chinese-made cars to the U.S. is relatively low [3] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on China's automotive production and consumption is minimal due to the low dependency on imports and the ability of the domestic supply chain to meet demand [3] - The retail sales of passenger cars in March 2023 reached 1.94 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, indicating a positive trend in the market [4]