第一个维度，是深刻理解"战略之举"的时代内核。李冠英说道："'扩大内需是战略之举'，并不仅仅是将扩大内需作为一种 短期的经济刺激手段，更是基于大国经济转型、国家安全发展，以及人民福祉提升的宏观考量。改革开放以来，中国经济长期 依赖'两头在外'的国际大循环，而随着外部环境发生深刻变化，传统依靠外需拉动经济增长的模式已经难以为继。" "当前的扩大内需，是顺应我国经济发展阶段演进、契合国际宏观环境变化的根本性战略调整，标志着我国经济发展重心 将从过去主要依赖出口和投资，转向以内需为主导的增长模式。这一战略不仅是应对当前外部风浪的'挡风墙'，更是保障我国 经济行稳致远的'压舱石'。"李冠英表示。 "大国经济的优势就在于内部可循环。"对此，李冠英结合全球经济形势进一步分析称，近年来全球经济增长动能持续减 弱，单边主义思潮蔓延，在此背景下，只有构建起强大的内需市场，才能在外部需求萎缩时，通过内需的稳定增长对冲外需下 滑的影响。"这不仅是经济问题，更是生存与竞争、发展与可持续的长期问题。以内需的稳定性应对国际环境的不确定性，是 保障国家经济安全的必然选择。"李冠英说道。 第二个维度，是充分释放"市场"这一稀缺战略资源的巨大 ...

"'分好蛋糕'有助于'做大蛋糕'，改善收入分配是打破当前消费需求制约、推动经济增长的关键。"12月18日，中国 社会科学院学部委员、原副院长蔡昉在"《财经》年会2026：预测与战略"上指出，改善收入分配是打破当前消费 需求制约、推动经济增长的关键。 2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，内需被赋予了前所未有的战略地位。不久前召开的中央经济工作会议，将"坚 持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"置于明年八大重点任务之首，并具体部署了"深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定 实施城乡居民增收计划"。这标志着，扩大内需已从宏观政策选项，升维为引领中长期发展的核心战略。 多位出席论坛的经济专家围绕这一战略转向展开了深入研讨。他们形成的核心共识是：中国经济的矛盾已转变为 内部供需失衡，而破解之道在于通过深刻的收入分配改革，提升居民的消费能力与意愿，完成从"做大蛋糕"到"分 好蛋糕"的一跃。 论坛现场。 中国经济运行呈现 "供强需弱""实际增速稳、体感偏弱"特征 当前中国经济运行呈现出鲜明的"供强需弱"特征，内需不足是制约高质量发展的突出短板。阳光保险集团首席经 济学家、国家统计局原局长邱晓华指出："目前我们国家经济运行中最突出的问题就 ...

当前，我国经济发展正面临着前所未有的复杂局面。这意味着全方位扩大内需，不能只是简单的刺激政 策加码，而是需要一场系统性的结构改革。比如，扩大内需的起点在于居民"有钱花、敢花钱"，收入分 配改革就成为关键所在。只有当更多财富流向中低收入群体，消费的引擎才能真正打开。再如，有效供 给不足，抑制了消费潜力的发挥，以供给体系的重构创造有效需求，成为中国制造的新使命。 全方位扩大内需，本质上是一场从外部依赖转向内生驱动的深刻变革。促进形成更多由内需主导、消费 拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式，是中国经济走向成熟的必然选择，也将是中国经济抵御风浪、赢得主 动的根本依托。 内需不足是当前我国经济运行面临的一个主要问题。过去5年，尽管持续发力扩大内需，着力畅通供需 循环，但国内消费与投资增长仍处于走弱态势，扩大内需的战略基点作用尚未充分发挥。 党中央高度重视扩大内需工作，党的二十届四中全会强调要坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，近日召开的中 央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"列为明年经济工作8项重点任务之首。这些决策 部署进一步凸显了扩大内需的重要性和紧迫性。 事实上，扩大内需不仅事关经济稳定，也关系到经济安全。当前，世 ...

"'分好蛋糕'有助于'做大蛋糕'，改善收入分配是打破当前消费需求制约、推动经济增长的关键。"12月18日，中国 社会科学院学部委员、原副院长蔡昉在"《财经》年会2026：预测与战略"上指出，改善收入分配是打破当前消费 需求制约、推动经济增长的关键。 论坛现场。 中国经济运行呈现"供强需弱""实际增速稳、体感偏弱"特征 2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，内需被赋予了前所未有的战略地位。不久前召开的中央经济工作会议，将"坚 持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"置于明年八大重点任务之首，并具体部署了"深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定 实施城乡居民增收计划"。这标志着，扩大内需已从宏观政策选项，升维为引领中长期发展的核心战略。 多位出席论坛的经济专家围绕这一战略转向展开了深入研讨。他们形成的核心共识是：中国经济的矛盾已转变为 内部供需失衡，而破解之道在于通过深刻的收入分配改革，提升居民的消费能力与意愿，完成从"做大蛋糕"到"分 好蛋糕"的一跃。 当前中国经济运行呈现出鲜明的"供强需弱"特征，内需不足是制约高质量发展的突出短板。阳光保险集团首席经 济学家、国家统计局原局长邱晓华指出："目前我们国家经济运行中最突出的问题就是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increase in consumer spending in China is a collective effort involving the government, enterprises, and residents, rather than just a result of individual behavior [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Spending Insights - The gap in consumer spending rates between China and other developed countries is primarily due to underutilized service consumption, including high-end healthcare, elder care, cultural tourism, and domestic services [1][3]. - The current urbanization level of the floating population in China is insufficient, and issues such as inadequate supply of high-quality service products and long working hours limit the potential for service consumption [1][3]. Group 2: Strategies for Increasing Consumer Spending - To enhance consumer spending capacity, it is essential to create an environment that encourages residents to consume, which includes reforming local government assessment and fiscal incentive systems [3][4]. - Enterprises should focus on providing higher quality goods and services to better meet consumer demand, and market access should be relaxed to foster healthy competition among businesses [3][4]. Group 3: Income Distribution and Social Security Reforms - The core of increasing consumer spending rates lies in reforms of income distribution and social security systems, aiming to raise the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution [4]. - Strategies to improve income distribution include stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, increasing minimum wages, and enhancing the property tax system to ensure fair income and wealth distribution [4]. - Social security reforms should involve linking state-owned assets to fiscal policies for social security funding and transitioning to a universal minimum pension system supported by central and local finances [4].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for China's high-quality development, facing multiple challenges such as macroeconomic changes, demographic shifts, and employment issues, necessitating systematic responses from institutional design and resource allocation [4] Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - Current macroeconomic patterns show a "failure of traditional rules," where short-term shocks and long-term structural factors interact, complicating the relationship between inflation and unemployment [5] - The aging population is a long-term factor that suppresses inflation, raising concerns about its impact on economic vitality [5] Group 2: Competition and Economic Efficiency - "Involution" in competition leads to a decline in potential growth rates, slowing productivity growth and reducing investment returns, resulting in a contraction of market size [6] - Over-investment in traditional sectors delays the transition to new growth drivers, causing a series of negative effects including weak CPI and declining employment quality [6] Group 3: Demographic Challenges - The dual pressures of low birth rates and rapid aging are significant challenges during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with the total fertility rate falling below replacement levels since 1992 [8] - The aging population increases the old-age dependency ratio, straining pension fund sustainability and creating a demand for elderly care that the current supply system struggles to meet [8] Group 4: Consumption Dynamics - The demographic structure negatively impacts consumption potential, with younger populations decreasing and older individuals having limited consumption capacity due to low labor participation and insufficient social security [9] Group 5: Employment Market Characteristics - The employment market is characterized by new forms of employment, with 310 million individuals in urban self-employment and private sectors, and 200 million in flexible employment as of 2023 [10] - Labor mobility is becoming more localized, which may hinder overall productivity growth [10] Group 6: Policy Recommendations - The focus should shift from merely expanding the economy to improving income distribution, addressing urban-rural income disparities, and enhancing social equity [13] - Investment should transition from physical assets to human capital, emphasizing education and health to foster sustainable economic growth [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing social security and public services to boost consumer confidence and spending in China, particularly in the context of achieving common prosperity and addressing income distribution reform [3][4][5]. Group 1: Social Security and Consumer Confidence - The experience of observing full restaurants in Australia led to the realization of the importance of a legally confirmed social security net, which enhances consumer confidence [3][20]. - There has been significant investment in basic social security in China, resulting in noticeable growth in guaranteed income, but further legal confirmation of social security is necessary to stabilize consumer expectations [3][20]. - The need for a robust social security system is highlighted as a foundation for increasing consumer spending and ensuring a sense of safety among the populace [9][20]. Group 2: Income Distribution Reform - The "two-fold doubling plan" proposed by the National Committee aims to double national income and the middle-income group, which is seen as crucial for achieving common prosperity [3][4]. - The article discusses the necessity of narrowing the income gap between urban and rural residents, with recent improvements noted in rural income levels [16][17]. - Future reforms should focus on increasing the proportion of labor remuneration in national income, targeting a rise from 50% to 60% over the next decade [17]. Group 3: Economic Growth and Consumption - The article suggests that increasing the service consumption ratio from 46.1% to 60% could generate an additional 40 trillion yuan in consumer demand, indicating a significant opportunity for economic growth [8]. - The current economic model is criticized for being overly reliant on traditional investment, with a call for a shift towards a consumption-driven economy [9][10]. - The importance of investing in human capital, particularly in education, healthcare, and elder care, is emphasized as a means to stimulate service consumption and improve quality of life [11][12]. Group 4: Public Services and Urbanization - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the equality of basic public services, which is essential for urbanization and addressing the needs of a growing population [4][19]. - The article stresses the need for a balanced approach to investment in both physical infrastructure and human services to meet the evolving demands of society [10][14]. - Achieving basic public service equality is seen as a long-term goal that requires sustained effort and legal frameworks to ensure fairness and security for all citizens [19][21].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has released recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on various measures to enhance employment, income, education, and social security in the realm of public welfare [1]. Employment Strategies - Implementation of an employment-first strategy and improvement of employment promotion mechanisms [5]. - Active cultivation of new professions and job positions, supporting enterprises in stabilizing and expanding jobs [6]. - Establishment of a lifelong vocational skills training system [6]. - Focus on stabilizing and expanding employment for key groups such as college graduates, migrant workers, and veterans [6][7]. - Promotion of flexible employment and healthy development of new employment forms [6]. Income Distribution - Increase the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution [10]. - Enhance labor remuneration in the primary distribution of income [10]. - Improve the mechanism for determining initial distribution based on market evaluation of contributions [10]. - Implement a plan to increase income for urban and rural residents [10]. Education Improvements - Expand educational resources for the net inflow of school-age population into urban areas [15]. - Gradually expand the scope of free education and explore extending the duration of compulsory education [15]. - Enhance the capacity of vocational schools and build distinctive higher vocational colleges [15]. Social Security Enhancements - Improve and implement a nationwide basic pension insurance system [17]. - Accelerate the development of a multi-level, multi-pillar pension insurance system [17]. - Optimize the medical insurance payment and drug procurement policies [17]. Housing Policies - Optimize the supply of affordable housing to meet the basic housing needs of urban wage earners and low-income families [22]. - Implement housing quality improvement projects and enhance property service quality [22]. - Establish a safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing [22]. Health and Family Support - Optimize fertility support policies and incentives, effectively reducing family upbringing costs [27]. - Implement a maternity leave system and enhance the maternity insurance system [30]. - Develop integrated services for childcare and early education [30].

Employment and Income Distribution - The proposal emphasizes the implementation of an employment-first strategy to promote high-quality and sufficient employment, focusing on creating a job-friendly development model [3][4] - It aims to enhance the coordination between industry and employment, support the cultivation of new jobs, and improve the human resources supply-demand matching mechanism [4] - The income distribution system will be improved to increase the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution and enhance labor remuneration in primary distribution [8][12] Education Development - The proposal outlines the implementation of a moral education project, integrating ideological and social education, and enhancing physical, aesthetic, and labor education [13][15] - It aims to expand the coverage of free education and explore extending the duration of compulsory education [15][16] - The focus is on improving vocational education and expanding high-quality higher education enrollment [17][19] Social Security System - The proposal calls for the establishment of a nationwide basic pension insurance system and the development of a multi-tiered pension insurance system [22][24] - It emphasizes the need to expand unemployment and work injury insurance coverage and improve the social security transfer and connection policies [23][24] - The aim is to enhance the social assistance system and provide better services for vulnerable groups such as the elderly and disabled [27][28] Real Estate Development - The proposal seeks to accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development, optimizing the supply of affordable housing to meet the basic housing needs of urban workers and disadvantaged families [32][33] - It emphasizes the importance of implementing safety and quality improvement projects for housing [34] Health and Population Development - The proposal promotes a health-first development strategy, enhancing public health capabilities and improving the healthcare system [35][36] - It aims to address population aging by developing a coordinated policy mechanism for elderly care and optimizing basic elderly services [42][43] - The focus is on improving maternal and child health services and promoting family-friendly policies to reduce the cost of child-rearing [41][39]

Economic Overview - September inflation data shows a slight increase in core CPI, while PPI remains flat month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrows[1] - Market discussions suggest a potential recovery in industrial prices similar to the strong rebound seen in 2016-2017, with expectations for PPI to turn positive by mid-next year[1] Structural Changes - Current household leverage is stable at high levels, contrasting with the rising trend seen in 2016-2017, limiting the effectiveness of stimulus policies[1] - The demand gap is significantly larger now than in previous years, making it more challenging to stimulate demand effectively[1] Policy Direction - A fundamental shift in policy focus is noted, moving from encouraging borrowing to enhancing income distribution and government spending to boost consumer confidence and spending power[2] - The economic recovery is expected to be gradual, likely following an "L-shaped" trajectory rather than a rapid "V-shaped" rebound[2] Key Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 0.50%[4] - Retail sales growth for the month is at 3.40% year-on-year[4] - Exports show a year-on-year increase of 8.30%[4] - M2 money supply growth is recorded at 8.40%[4] Market Dynamics - Real estate investment remains weak, with rebar production continuing to decline and inventory levels high[13] - Infrastructure investment shows resilience, with certain production metrics indicating ongoing strength in related sectors[13] Consumer Behavior - Overall consumer activity is stable, but there are signs of structural divergence, particularly in transportation and retail sectors[21] - Movie box office performance is weak, while automobile sales have seen a notable increase of approximately 8.5% year-on-year[21] Trade and External Factors - Global external demand recovery is slow, with port throughput showing typical fluctuations and export freight rates declining since July[28] - Increased shipping capacity is shifting towards emerging markets, reflecting changes in global trade dynamics[28] Fiscal Measures - A new 500 billion yuan local government financial support package is expected to bolster economic activity[30] - The overall fiscal deficit has reached 10 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 84.1%[30] Monetary Policy - The willingness to leverage in the bond market is decreasing, although it remains at a high level[40] - The current monetary environment continues to be loose, with various indicators suggesting ongoing support for economic activity[40] Real Estate Market - The real estate market faces significant downward pressure, with transaction volumes in major cities remaining low[49] - Land transaction volumes show no significant improvement, indicating persistent challenges in the property sector[49]