文 / 张向东 十几年前 一 个 周末 的 晚上 ，中改院院长迟福林去澳大利亚悉尼考察，到了 晚上 想 找个地方吃 饭 。 结果 发现， 很多餐馆都爆满 。 怎么会这样？ 不仅如此，他还对社保、医疗健康、教育等基本公共服务领域的重大改革课题，进行了深入研究 。 他是中国经济体制领域中的"改革老兵"。 二十届四中全会审议通过的"十五五 " 规划建议 提出， " 十五五 " 期间，要实现"居民收入增长和 经济增长同步、劳动报酬提高和劳动生产率提高同步，分配结构得到优化，中等收入群体持续扩大， 社会保障制度更加优化更可持续，基本公共服务均等化水平明显提升。""坚持惠民生和促消费、投 资于物和投资于人紧密结合"。 投资于人，钱从哪里来？在房地产行业受到较大冲击、资产端发生较大改变的情况下，中等收入群体 如何继续扩大？老龄化加剧背景下，中国社保支出压力如何缓解？基本公共服务均等化如何实现？城 乡差距如何进一步缩小？ 根据世界银行发布的2025年最新标准： 人均国民总收入（ GNI）达到或超过13935美元，即属于 高收入国家。而 中国2024年人均GNI为1.34万美元， 已非常 接近高收入国家门槛。 成为高收入国家， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has released recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on various measures to enhance employment, income, education, and social security in the realm of public welfare [1]. Employment Strategies - Implementation of an employment-first strategy and improvement of employment promotion mechanisms [5]. - Active cultivation of new professions and job positions, supporting enterprises in stabilizing and expanding jobs [6]. - Establishment of a lifelong vocational skills training system [6]. - Focus on stabilizing and expanding employment for key groups such as college graduates, migrant workers, and veterans [6][7]. - Promotion of flexible employment and healthy development of new employment forms [6]. Income Distribution - Increase the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution [10]. - Enhance labor remuneration in the primary distribution of income [10]. - Improve the mechanism for determining initial distribution based on market evaluation of contributions [10]. - Implement a plan to increase income for urban and rural residents [10]. Education Improvements - Expand educational resources for the net inflow of school-age population into urban areas [15]. - Gradually expand the scope of free education and explore extending the duration of compulsory education [15]. - Enhance the capacity of vocational schools and build distinctive higher vocational colleges [15]. Social Security Enhancements - Improve and implement a nationwide basic pension insurance system [17]. - Accelerate the development of a multi-level, multi-pillar pension insurance system [17]. - Optimize the medical insurance payment and drug procurement policies [17]. Housing Policies - Optimize the supply of affordable housing to meet the basic housing needs of urban wage earners and low-income families [22]. - Implement housing quality improvement projects and enhance property service quality [22]. - Establish a safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing [22]. Health and Family Support - Optimize fertility support policies and incentives, effectively reducing family upbringing costs [27]. - Implement a maternity leave system and enhance the maternity insurance system [30]. - Develop integrated services for childcare and early education [30].

Employment and Income Distribution - The proposal emphasizes the implementation of an employment-first strategy to promote high-quality and sufficient employment, focusing on creating a job-friendly development model [3][4] - It aims to enhance the coordination between industry and employment, support the cultivation of new jobs, and improve the human resources supply-demand matching mechanism [4] - The income distribution system will be improved to increase the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution and enhance labor remuneration in primary distribution [8][12] Education Development - The proposal outlines the implementation of a moral education project, integrating ideological and social education, and enhancing physical, aesthetic, and labor education [13][15] - It aims to expand the coverage of free education and explore extending the duration of compulsory education [15][16] - The focus is on improving vocational education and expanding high-quality higher education enrollment [17][19] Social Security System - The proposal calls for the establishment of a nationwide basic pension insurance system and the development of a multi-tiered pension insurance system [22][24] - It emphasizes the need to expand unemployment and work injury insurance coverage and improve the social security transfer and connection policies [23][24] - The aim is to enhance the social assistance system and provide better services for vulnerable groups such as the elderly and disabled [27][28] Real Estate Development - The proposal seeks to accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development, optimizing the supply of affordable housing to meet the basic housing needs of urban workers and disadvantaged families [32][33] - It emphasizes the importance of implementing safety and quality improvement projects for housing [34] Health and Population Development - The proposal promotes a health-first development strategy, enhancing public health capabilities and improving the healthcare system [35][36] - It aims to address population aging by developing a coordinated policy mechanism for elderly care and optimizing basic elderly services [42][43] - The focus is on improving maternal and child health services and promoting family-friendly policies to reduce the cost of child-rearing [41][39]

Economic Overview - September inflation data shows a slight increase in core CPI, while PPI remains flat month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrows[1] - Market discussions suggest a potential recovery in industrial prices similar to the strong rebound seen in 2016-2017, with expectations for PPI to turn positive by mid-next year[1] Structural Changes - Current household leverage is stable at high levels, contrasting with the rising trend seen in 2016-2017, limiting the effectiveness of stimulus policies[1] - The demand gap is significantly larger now than in previous years, making it more challenging to stimulate demand effectively[1] Policy Direction - A fundamental shift in policy focus is noted, moving from encouraging borrowing to enhancing income distribution and government spending to boost consumer confidence and spending power[2] - The economic recovery is expected to be gradual, likely following an "L-shaped" trajectory rather than a rapid "V-shaped" rebound[2] Key Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 0.50%[4] - Retail sales growth for the month is at 3.40% year-on-year[4] - Exports show a year-on-year increase of 8.30%[4] - M2 money supply growth is recorded at 8.40%[4] Market Dynamics - Real estate investment remains weak, with rebar production continuing to decline and inventory levels high[13] - Infrastructure investment shows resilience, with certain production metrics indicating ongoing strength in related sectors[13] Consumer Behavior - Overall consumer activity is stable, but there are signs of structural divergence, particularly in transportation and retail sectors[21] - Movie box office performance is weak, while automobile sales have seen a notable increase of approximately 8.5% year-on-year[21] Trade and External Factors - Global external demand recovery is slow, with port throughput showing typical fluctuations and export freight rates declining since July[28] - Increased shipping capacity is shifting towards emerging markets, reflecting changes in global trade dynamics[28] Fiscal Measures - A new 500 billion yuan local government financial support package is expected to bolster economic activity[30] - The overall fiscal deficit has reached 10 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 84.1%[30] Monetary Policy - The willingness to leverage in the bond market is decreasing, although it remains at a high level[40] - The current monetary environment continues to be loose, with various indicators suggesting ongoing support for economic activity[40] Real Estate Market - The real estate market faces significant downward pressure, with transaction volumes in major cities remaining low[49] - Land transaction volumes show no significant improvement, indicating persistent challenges in the property sector[49]

Summary of the Conference Call on the 15th Five-Year Plan Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) in China, focusing on strategic directions in technology innovation, domestic demand, and emerging industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Continuation of Strategic Directions**: The 15th Five-Year Plan will extend and deepen the strategic directions of the 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly in technology innovation and new productive forces, aiming for a target of at least 20% of GDP from strategic emerging industries [1][11]. 2. **Focus on Domestic Demand**: Policies will emphasize consumption upgrades and investment structure optimization, aiming to release consumption potential through improved supply quality and international standards [1][4]. 3. **Support for Emerging Industries**: The plan will promote cluster development in new-generation information technology, high-end equipment, and biotechnology, with special funding and financing channels to support specialized and innovative enterprises [1][12]. 4. **Capacity Governance**: The plan will address overcapacity issues in industries like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics by enforcing strict environmental and energy consumption standards [1][13]. 5. **Public Service and Income Distribution Reform**: The plan aims to equalize basic public services and reform income distribution to reduce preventive savings in education, healthcare, and elderly care, thereby releasing more consumption capacity [1][16]. 6. **Investment Focus**: Short-term policies may lead to sector rotation effects, with funds potentially shifting from infrastructure to tourism and hospitality sectors, while long-term investments will focus on digital economy, high-end manufacturing, new energy, and the silver economy [3][17]. 7. **Challenges in Consumption**: Despite significant progress in cultivating new consumption drivers, consumption contribution to economic growth has weakened, dropping from 80% to 52% by Q2 2025 [3][9]. 8. **Investment Targets**: Most investment indicators are on track, but some energy security and social welfare targets have not met expectations, such as the nuclear power generation capacity completion rate of 68.8% [3][10]. 9. **Technological Innovation and R&D**: The plan will increase the proportion of basic research in R&D funding and enhance support for national laboratories and high-level universities [1][11]. 10. **Quality Supply and Consumption Upgrade**: The plan aims to improve supply quality to meet consumption upgrade demands, establishing a quality grading certification system [1][14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Historical Context of Five-Year Plans**: The evolution of China's Five-Year Plans from 1953 to the present reflects a shift from rapid economic growth to a focus on quality and efficiency [5][6]. 2. **Impact on Capital Markets**: Historical data suggests that while immediate impacts on stock markets may be limited, long-term policy implementations can significantly drive market performance, particularly in technology sectors [8]. 3. **Social Welfare Opportunities**: There are notable opportunities in social welfare sectors, particularly in elderly care and health management, which may see increased investment and development [3][17].

Group 1 - The loss of confidence among the public in China's economic future is attributed to high housing prices resulting from the long-term expansion of the real estate market, which has burdened multiple generations with mortgage debt and limited their consumption capacity [1] - The widening wealth gap has led to a situation where high-income individuals can afford luxury consumption, while the majority of ordinary citizens struggle to maintain a low-consumption lifestyle, undermining the overall consumption power necessary for economic growth [1] - The continuous decline in the real estate and stock markets has significantly reduced residents' assets, causing widespread concern about the future direction of the economy [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government needs to focus on the demands and expectations of the people by formulating and implementing policies that align with public sentiment, as the recovery of the economy hinges on promoting domestic demand and consumption [3] - Accelerating income distribution reform is crucial to raise residents' income levels, which is essential for restoring public confidence in the economy and driving economic recovery [3] Group 3 - Simply accelerating income distribution reform is insufficient; the government must also enhance reform and opening-up efforts, deepen state-owned enterprise reforms, introduce more competitive mechanisms, and expand market access to foster innovation and development [5] - Strengthening financial regulation and improving the quality and efficiency of financial services are necessary to mitigate financial risks, alongside promoting technological innovation and structural adjustments in the economy [5] Group 4 - Despite facing internal and external uncertainties, there remains a belief in the potential for China's economic development, provided that the government maintains a clear direction and implements policies that meet public expectations [6] - There is optimism that with concerted efforts, new opportunities for economic growth can be created, injecting vitality into the economy and paving the way for a better future [6]

Group 1 - The current economic situation in China is characterized by insufficient demand, necessitating new incremental policies to stimulate growth [3][20][32] - The real estate market is identified as a crucial area for implementing incremental policies due to its strong impact on the economy [5][18][28] - The need for deep reforms in three key areas: income distribution reform, fiscal and tax system reform, and investment system reform to encourage private sector investment [7][43][45] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is aimed at addressing excessive competition in certain industries, particularly in emerging sectors like renewable energy and technology [3][10][12] - The importance of preventing the misinterpretation of "anti-involution" as a move against platform economies or private enterprises [3][12][16] - The necessity for a balanced approach to market competition, emphasizing legal frameworks to guide behavior rather than administrative controls [11][12][14] Group 3 - The need for macroeconomic policies to focus on stimulating demand, with suggestions for lowering interest rates and potentially implementing a form of quantitative easing [8][45] - The role of local governments in maintaining redundant capacities and the challenges they pose to market dynamics [16][17] - The potential for urbanization to drive economic growth, with a focus on improving public services and reducing administrative barriers [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Golden Week saw a significant increase in domestic travel and spending, indicating a stable growth in total consumption, but further efforts are needed to stimulate consumer confidence and market order [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance - During the 8-day holiday, there were 888 million domestic trips, an increase of 123 million compared to the 2024 National Day holiday [2]. - Total domestic spending reached 809 billion yuan, up by 108.19 billion yuan from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Market Regulation - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement to combat price disorder and maintain a fair market price order [2][3]. - The announcement includes a three-step approach: industry average cost investigation, warning reminders, and law enforcement inspections to address issues like below-cost pricing [2]. Group 3: Demand Management - Price governance is seen as a starting point for demand expansion, emphasizing the need for both short-term stimulus and long-term structural reforms [4]. - Short-term measures should focus on fiscal expansion and monetary policy coordination to meet economic development goals [4]. Group 4: Long-term Strategies - Strategies to stimulate domestic demand should include promoting consumption upgrades and addressing livelihood shortcomings to support the next growth cycle [4][5]. - Emphasis on income distribution reform is crucial to enhance consumer spending power and address insufficient domestic demand [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for income distribution reform and welfare system construction to alleviate household financial risks, thereby stimulating real consumption and investment willingness as a fundamental path for economic growth [4][6][24]. Group 1: Economic Challenges and Reforms - The concept of "anti-involution" signifies a restructuring attempt of institutional design and social ecology, addressing issues like low-level competition and unfair practices [4][6]. - Current economic challenges in China include low consumer willingness and insufficient investment motivation, necessitating a focus on household financial stability and risk resilience [5][6][12]. - The historical reliance on export-driven growth has suppressed wage and consumption growth, leading to a conservative consumption trend and limited domestic demand [7][11][24]. Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Development - The analysis framework includes three historical long cycles: globalization, hegemonic shifts, and technological revolutions, which collectively influence economic dynamics [7][8]. - China's reform and opening-up coincided with a global shift from protectionism to market forces, allowing it to integrate into the global production system and achieve rapid growth [8][9]. - The export-oriented growth model has led to wage suppression and inadequate social security, creating structural liabilities that are now evident in the face of external shocks [11][12]. Group 3: The Role of Welfare State - Establishing a welfare state is crucial for addressing the challenges posed by the technological revolution, particularly the impact of artificial intelligence on labor distribution [17][24]. - The welfare state aims to reduce the risk burden on residents, encouraging consumption and fostering a robust domestic market [24][25]. - Without a welfare state, sustaining consumer spending becomes difficult, which in turn affects the strength of the domestic market and China's position in international economic governance [25]. Group 4: Real Estate and Economic Growth - The relationship between real estate and economic growth is undergoing a transformation, with diminishing returns on investment in the real estate sector [18][19]. - The current economic environment necessitates a reevaluation of resource allocation, particularly in light of the limited fiscal space and rising local government debt [20][21]. - The shift away from real estate as a primary growth driver could allow for more strategic investments in emerging industries, enhancing overall economic resilience [19][20]. Group 5: Regional Disparities and Open Market - Addressing regional disparities is essential for further opening up the market and achieving common prosperity, as balanced regional development supports higher levels of external engagement [21][22]. - The article suggests that fostering investment in underdeveloped regions through new special economic zones could effectively address wealth distribution issues [22][23]. - The dual focus on internal circulation and market openness is vital for navigating the complexities of the current global economic landscape [23][24].

Economic Analysis - The internal tension between investment and consumption significantly impacts economic growth, with capital income concentrated among high-income groups and a low marginal propensity to consume, leading to an imbalance in China's capital-output ratio (K/GDP) and declining capital return rates (r) approaching an "efficiency cliff" [3] - Empirical data indicates that the decline in investment efficiency in China is primarily due to consumption not keeping pace with supply expansion, particularly in the service sector, resulting in structural mismatches and excess investment [3] - The high proportion of capital income in the primary distribution squeezes residents' consumption capacity, while government spending focuses more on investment rather than improving living standards, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [3] Investment and Consumption Dynamics - Investment creates new supply and directly drives economic growth, while consumption represents demand and is the source of corporate profits, indicating that sustainable growth relies on a balanced ratio of investment to consumption [7] - Since 2009, China's capital stock to GDP ratio has been rising, indicating that capital stock growth has consistently outpaced GDP growth, leading to declining investment efficiency [9] - The capital income share in China from 2010 to 2020 remained relatively stable, suggesting a notable decline in capital return rates, which could lead to a halt in investment-driven growth if it falls below a critical threshold [11] Structural Issues - The structural mismatch between investment and consumption exacerbates idle capacity, with fixed asset investment heavily skewed towards construction (approximately 70%) rather than manufacturing (about 15%), while service consumption remains significantly low [18] - The high capital income share in China (24.2% from 1992 to 2020) exceeds the U.S. average (23.4%), indicating a greater squeeze on non-capital income and thus lower overall consumption capacity [30] Long-term Solutions - Short-term solutions may involve eliminating inefficient capacity to improve capital return rates, but long-term sustainable growth requires addressing income distribution through labor rights and welfare spending [3] - The current "anti-involution" policy should focus on income distribution reform rather than merely replicating past capacity reduction experiences from 2016-2017 [3]