当地时间12月15日，一场决定俄乌冲突走向的会谈在柏林落幕。特朗普急着推动俄乌停火，派女婿库什纳和特使威特科夫亲自下场施压，与 乌克兰总统泽连斯基连谈两天，美方甚至高调宣称"已取得大量进展"。这场被美国主导的和平磋商，看似是美乌俄的三方博弈，实则悄悄牵动 着中国的能源和经贸利益，每一个进展都值得我们紧盯。 先理清事件里两个关键信息，分清哪些和我们无关，哪些才是重点。与中国无直接关联的是美乌俄的核心谈判分歧：一是顿涅茨克地区控制 权，俄方要求乌军从仍控制的部分区域撤军，美方提议设"自由经济区"但没说清管理权，泽连斯基只接受俄乌对等撤军；二是乌克兰入约问 题，泽连斯基原本把加入北约当终极目标，却因美欧反对只能妥协，接受类似北约第五条的安全保障。这些是三方博弈的核心，也是谈判的 主要绊脚石。 当地时间14日，美乌代表团在德国柏林进行会谈 再看这场博弈里的政要百态，性格特点暴露无遗。特朗普的"功利强硬"展现得淋漓尽致，他一心想在圣诞节前达成协议，为自己的选举造 势，不仅用强硬措辞施压欧洲领导人，还直接逼泽连斯基"接受现实"。为了推进计划，他派最信任的女婿库什纳牵头，说白了就是想牢牢掌控 和平进程的主导权，算盘打得叮当 ...

（来源：福能期货） 来源：福能期货 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考，在任何情况下不作为您的投资依据，据此入市，风 险自担。因本平台暂时无法设置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 01 重点关注 黄金 受市场对美联储将在下月降息的预期提振，周四亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于4167.57美元/盎司附近，金价周三延续涨势，攀升至逾一 周高位。美国9月零售销售月率录得0.2%，不及预期；9月PPI月率录得0.3%，与预期一致。美联储褐皮书显示，近几周经济活动基本 不变，消费者两极分化加剧。美国至11月22日当周初请失业金人数录得21.6万人，低于预期的22.5万人和上修后的前值22.2万人，为 2025年4月12日当周以来新低。尽管上周美国初请失业金人数有所下降，但劳动力市场在持续的经济不确定性下仍面临挑战。同时， 近期美联储三把手威廉姆斯、理事沃勒及戴利相继发表鸽派发言，提振市场对于美联储12月降息预期，美联储12月降息预期骤然升 温。地缘方面，俄罗斯方面表示已收到美方关于 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to continue their upward trend with fluctuations, while the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading has sparked enthusiasm for going long on treasury bond futures [5][18][21]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of some products such as soybeans and sugar are affected by factors like trade relations and supply - demand changes, showing different trends [7][26][28]. - The steel market is showing a trend of continued strengthening, while the double - coking market has support at the bottom but faces resistance in upward movement [9][59][61]. - The precious metals market has broken through important support levels due to the easing of risk factors, and is expected to continue to adjust [11][69][71]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the stock index opened higher and closed higher. All major indices and futures contracts rose. The market is expected to continue its upward trend with fluctuations. Trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and buying call options on the Sci - tech Innovation 50, Science and Technology Innovation Board 50, and ChiNext at low prices [18][19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Monday, treasury bond futures opened lower but closed higher. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is expected to continue the "moderately loose" monetary policy. It is recommended to maintain a long - biased mindset for unilateral trading, and consider flattening the yield curve or shorting the inter - delivery spread for arbitrage [21][22][24]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The improvement in the macro - environment has driven up the US soybean price, but the international soybean supply pressure is still high. Domestic soybean meal has also risen, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [26][27][28]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar market is bearish due to increased production in major producing areas. In China, the suspension of pre - mixed powder and syrup imports has a short - term bullish impact. The trading strategy includes short - term oscillation for unilateral trading, shorting US raw sugar and going long on domestic Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [28][29][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The short - term disk is expected to oscillate slightly weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and wait for the price to stabilize on dips before going long. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [32][33][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures rebounded, but the production is expected to be high. In China, the supply of corn is increasing, and the spot price is falling. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month US corn on dips, wait and see for the 01 - month contract, and wait for dips to go long on the 05 - and 07 - month contracts [36][37][38]. - **Hogs**: The short - term slaughter pressure has eased, but the overall supply is still high. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral and arbitrage trading, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [39][40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut price is in short - term bottom - range oscillation. It is recommended to go long on the 01 - and 05 - month contracts on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. - **Eggs**: The supply of laying hens is still high, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [43][44][47]. - **Apples**: The quality of new - season apples is poor, but the purchase enthusiasm of merchants is high. The price is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][49][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The acquisition is at its peak, and the price is expected to oscillate slightly strongly. It is recommended to expect the US cotton to oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [53][54][57]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to continue to strengthen. It is recommended to maintain a long - biased mindset for unilateral trading, continue to hold the long - spread position of hot - rolled coil and rebar for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [59][60][61]. - **Double - Coking**: The double - coking market has support at the bottom but faces resistance in upward movement. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and look for opportunities to go long on dips for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [61][62][64]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and for options [64][65][66]. - **Ferroalloys**: The macro - environment has driven a rebound, but the supply - demand pressure still exists. It is recommended to use the strategy of shorting after the low - valuation repair for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66][67][68]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market has broken through important support levels due to the easing of risk factors. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, while aggressive investors can conduct short - term intraday trading [69][70][71]. - **Copper**: The macro - environment has improved, and the supply is relatively tight. It is recommended to go long on dips for unilateral trading, continue to hold the long - position in cross - market arbitrage, and wait and see for options [73][74][76]. - **Alumina**: There is an expectation of production cuts on the supply side, and the price is expected to rebound slightly. It is recommended to go long on the short - term price rebound for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [77][78][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The macro - environment and fundamentals are in resonance, and the price is expected to strengthen in the medium term. It is recommended to expect the price to strengthen with fluctuations for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [81][82][83]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The global trade situation has eased, and the price is in an upward - oscillation channel. It is recommended to expect the price to strengthen with fluctuations for unilateral trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [84][85][86]. - **Zinc**: It is recommended to go long on dips for unilateral trading, consider long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage according to export conditions, and sell out - of - the - money put options [87][88][93]. - **Lead**: The lead price may fall from high levels. It is recommended to go short on rallies for unilateral trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [93][94][95]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is expected to maintain range - bound trading due to macro - benefits and loose supply - demand. No specific trading strategies are provided [98].

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a slight increase in early Asian trading on August 20, reported at approximately $3315 per ounce, following a significant drop the previous day [1] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose by 0.13% to 98.23, indicating a stronger dollar which typically pressures gold prices [1] - President Trump expressed hope for a resolution to the Ukraine conflict, which could diminish gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset if peace negotiations progress [1] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is estimated at 85%, which would generally be favorable for gold due to lower opportunity costs [2] - Market uncertainty surrounds Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole, with concerns that he may downplay the likelihood of a September rate cut [2] - UBS strategist noted that if Powell's commitment to a rate cut is not clear, it could lead to market disappointment and further pressure on gold prices [2] Group 3 - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the Fed's July meeting minutes and Powell's speech for insights into U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy [3] - Analysts suggest that Powell may adopt a slightly dovish tone, which could support gold prices [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices may challenge the 100-day simple moving average at $3301 per ounce, with key resistance levels at $3347-48 and historical highs at $3500 per ounce [3]

Group 1: Gold Market - Recent closed-door meetings between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia have led to "creative progress" regarding maritime security and energy facility protection, indicating a potential easing of tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but revised inflation expectations upward while lowering economic forecasts, increasing the likelihood of an earlier rate cut, potentially by June [1] - Technical analysis shows gold has experienced three consecutive weekly gains, with a bullish trend, although short-term fluctuations are expected around the $3,030 resistance level [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The US military has conducted at least 47 attacks against Houthi forces in Yemen, while Houthi forces have targeted the US aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, raising concerns about the security of oil shipping routes in the Red Sea [2] - The Mandeb Strait, through which approximately 7.2 million barrels of oil pass daily, is critical for global oil trade, and any blockade could severely impact energy supplies [2] - Despite the easing of tensions in the Russia-Ukraine situation, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East remains tense, with potential for escalation due to increased US actions against Houthi forces and sanctions on Iran [2] Group 3: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a weak performance, failing to break the resistance at the 38,100 level, with a higher probability of continued declines [3] - Key support levels to watch are at 37,400 and 37,000 [3] Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices have surged over 11% in the past two weeks, indicating strong bullish momentum, although there is a potential need for a pullback [4] - A drop below $5.02 could lead to a focus on the $4.90 support level [4]