Core Points - The G7 foreign ministers meeting in Canada reached a consensus on the Russia-Ukraine issue and are preparing to increase pressure on Russia [1] - A joint statement reaffirmed strong support for Ukraine and called for an immediate ceasefire from both sides [1] - The U.S. Secretary of State did not specify new pressure tactics but emphasized discussions on strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities and pursuing diplomatic solutions for lasting peace [1] Summary by Categories Economic Measures - G7 ministers are increasing the economic costs on Russia and preparing sanctions against countries and entities funding Russia's war efforts [1] Diplomatic Efforts - The meeting focused on enhancing Ukraine's defense and encouraging Russia to seek diplomatic avenues for direct dialogue with Ukraine [1] Support for Ukraine - The G7 reiterated its unwavering support for Ukraine and called for an immediate ceasefire [1]

| 11/11/2 | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月22日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜金银价格大跌,连续多日巨幅波动。近日中美贸易出现一定缓和信号,俄乌和美国停摆问题处于博弈关 键时期，风险情绪摇摆。短期贵金属严重超买正在修复,回调后可能构筑高位震荡平台,建议暂时观望等待 企稳后买入机会。 ★特朗普在上周与普京通话后,宣布两国元首近期将在匈牙利首都布达佩斯会晤。但特朗普21日称,他与俄 罗斯总统普京原定的会面计划被搁置，因为他不想"浪费"这次会面。特朗普还表示，有关会晤的决定将在 未来几天做出。 另据一名白宫官员透露，特朗普将于22日与北约秘书长吕特举行会谈。这名官员没有提供会 谈议程的任何细节。据美联社报道，特朗普推迟布达佩斯会晤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Trump's proposal to establish a "Ukraine Victory Fund" funded by imposing tariffs of up to 500% on Chinese goods, with the intention of using the revenue for military aid to Ukraine. This proposal has been met with skepticism and rejection from European allies [3][5][10]. Group 1: Proposal Details - Trump plans to impose tariffs of up to 500% on Chinese goods, with all proceeds directed towards military assistance for Ukraine [3]. - The proposal is framed as a way to support Ukraine while also encouraging European allies to adopt similar measures against China [5][10]. Group 2: Reactions and Implications - The European Parliament has rejected the idea of imposing tariffs on China, indicating that Europe is unwilling to be drawn into a trade conflict with China based on U.S. proposals [8][10]. - Trump's approach is seen as an attempt to leverage European concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict to gain support for a broader anti-China stance, but it underestimates Europe's strategic autonomy [10]. - The suggestion of a 500% tariff is viewed as a political stunt rather than a feasible policy, highlighting the unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy under Trump's leadership [10].

泽连斯基表示，谈话顺利且富有成效，他祝贺特朗普成功推动中东地区达成协议，并相信特朗普有能力解决俄乌问题。 泽连斯基向特朗普通报了俄方对乌克兰能源设施的袭击情况，并感谢美方愿意提供支持的承诺。两国领导人讨论了增强乌克兰防空系统的可 能性，并就正在筹备的相关协议达成共识。 据央视新闻，乌克兰总统泽连斯基同美国总统特朗普通电话。 泽连斯基强调，现在需要俄方表现出参与真正外交进程的意愿，只有通过实力才能推动这一目标的实现。 ...

Group 1 - The visit of President Trump to the UK is described as "unprecedented" and "significant," marking his second state visit after six years [1] - The meeting between Trump and UK Prime Minister Starmer is expected to focus on bilateral cooperation, with American companies making investment commitments in the UK [1][2] - The visit coincides with escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Trump aiming to persuade the UK to mediate for a non-military resolution [2] Group 2 - The itinerary includes a grand reception at Windsor Castle, with various ceremonial activities planned, including a royal salute and a state banquet [4] - Protests against Trump's visit are anticipated, similar to his first visit, with demonstrations planned in London [5] - A series of cooperation and investment agreements are expected to be signed, including over £1.25 billion in investments from major US financial firms [6] Group 3 - The discussions will aim to further detail the previously signed UK-US Economic Prosperity Agreement, particularly regarding tariffs on steel and pharmaceuticals [6][7] - The agreement allows for a significant increase in beef exports from the US to the UK, with a rise from 1,000 tons to 13,000 tons annually [6] - The potential for discussions on whisky trade tariffs is highlighted, with current tariffs on Scottish whisky exports to the US at 10% [7]

Group 1 - France has recently faced diplomatic criticism from multiple Western countries, including the US, Israel, and Italy, primarily regarding its policies on the Middle East peace process and European security issues [1] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu accused President Macron of exacerbating anti-Semitism by recognizing the Palestinian state, expressing concern over the rise of anti-Semitism in France [3] - The French government has altered its stance on the Israel-Palestine issue, as evidenced by its request to close Israeli exhibitors' booths at the Paris Air Show due to their display of offensive weapons [3] Group 2 - The US Ambassador to France, Charles Kushner, supported Israel's criticism of France, claiming that France has not taken sufficient measures to curb anti-Jewish violence [5] - France's Foreign Ministry rejected the ambassador's accusations, stating they violate international law and undermine trust between allies [5] - Italy's Deputy Prime Minister Salvini mocked Macron's proposal to send troops to Ukraine, suggesting that Macron should go himself, which led to a diplomatic protest from France [6][7] Group 3 - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have highlighted divisions within Western politics, with France and other European nations attempting to assert independent voices and solutions [7] - The proposed "voluntary alliance" led by France and the UK is discussing troop deployment to Ukraine if a ceasefire is reached, but Italy has repeatedly declined invitations to participate [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump suggested that President Putin might attend the 2026 World Cup, which will be co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico [3][5] - Trump displayed a photo of himself with Putin taken during their recent meeting in Alaska, indicating that Putin is interested in attending the event [3][5] - The World Cup draw ceremony is scheduled to take place in December at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., with the U.S. expected to host the majority of the over 100 matches [5] Group 2 - Trump expressed dissatisfaction regarding a recent attack on a U.S. factory in Ukraine by Russia, indicating ongoing tensions between the two countries [5][6] - The meeting between Trump and Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, was described as "constructive" and "productive," although no agreements were reached on issues such as a ceasefire in Ukraine [6] - Trump mentioned that developments regarding the situation in Ukraine could be expected in about two weeks, suggesting potential changes in U.S. strategy [6]

Group 1: Government Initiatives - The U.S. government has established the position of Chief Design Officer, with Joe Gebbia, co-founder of Airbnb, appointed as the first director [2] - The Chief Design Officer will report directly to the White House Chief of Staff and will focus on redesigning government forms and processes [2] - The National Design Studio, created under this initiative, is set to close in three years, aiming to reduce design costs and standardize government interactions with the public [2] Group 2: U.S.-Ukraine Relations - President Trump indicated that results regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation could be known in about two weeks, suggesting potential changes in U.S. strategy [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed hopes to clarify security guarantees within 7 to 10 days, aiming for a trilateral meeting with U.S. and Russian leaders [3][4] - Zelensky mentioned that approximately 30 countries are considering sending ground troops to support Ukraine, with the U.S. showing positive signals for participation [4] Group 3: Defense Procurement - The U.S. Department of Defense plans to procure approximately 7,480 tons of alloy-grade cobalt over the next five years, with a maximum procurement budget of $500 million [6] - Cobalt is a critical raw material for manufacturing batteries and components for aerospace engines, and the U.S. primarily relies on imports [6] - A report suggests that cobalt prices may enter an upward cycle due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to impact global supply significantly [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has established the position of Chief Design Officer, with Joe Gebbia, co-founder of Airbnb, appointed as the first director [2] - The Chief Design Officer will report directly to the White House Chief of Staff and will lead efforts to redesign government forms and processes [2] - The National Design Studio, created under this initiative, will provide recommendations to reduce design costs and standardize government websites, but will close after three years [2] Group 2 - President Trump indicated that a resolution regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation could be known in about two weeks, suggesting potential changes in U.S. strategy [3] - Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed security guarantees and the possibility of trilateral talks involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine [3][4] - Zelensky mentioned that around 30 countries are considering sending ground troops to support Ukraine, and the U.S. has shown positive signals regarding its involvement in security guarantees [4] Group 3 - The U.S. Department of Defense plans to procure approximately 7,480 tons of alloy-grade cobalt over the next five years, with a maximum procurement amount of $500 million [6] - Cobalt is a critical raw material for manufacturing batteries and high-temperature alloys, and the U.S. primarily relies on imports [6] - Analysts predict that cobalt prices may enter an upward cycle due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which is expected to impact global supply significantly [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Short - term, the market focuses on the cease - fire negotiation between the US and Russia on the Russia - Ukraine issue and India's attitude towards Russian oil sanctions. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to be falsified, and the price is bearish. Brent should pay attention to the support around $65.5 per barrel [1][2] - **Asphalt**: It maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term and more resistant to decline than crude oil. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3450 - 3550 [3][5] - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced, and the demand is mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply is rising and the demand has no specific driver. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7] - **PX**: Supply is recovering in August, and the demand side lacks upward drive. The price is expected to be in a range - bound consolidation [7][9] - **PTA**: Supply load has rebounded, and the demand side lacks upward drive. The price is expected to be in a range - bound consolidation [9][10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [12][13] - **Short Fiber**: The processing fee has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has slightly increased. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [15][16] - **PR (Bottle Chip)**: The processing fee has rebounded and stabilized. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [18][19] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene's supply and demand are expected to be relatively balanced, and the price has strong support. Styrene's supply is expected to increase, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The price of pure benzene is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [19][21] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC's supply and demand are expected to be weak, and short positions should be held. Caustic soda's price is expected to be in a volatile trend, and short positions should be closed at low prices [25][26] - **Plastic and PP**: The overall supply - demand pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [27][28] - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, and the strategy is to short at high prices without chasing the short [29][30] - **Urea**: Supply is abundant, and demand is declining. The strategy is to short at high prices without chasing the short [31] - **Soda Ash**: Supply increases, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [33][34] - **Glass**: After the price increase, the inventory is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [35][37] - **Log**: Supply is in a pulsed fluctuation, and demand improvement is limited. The market is generally stable and slightly strong, but long - term demand needs to be observed [38][40] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply is slightly reduced, and demand support is general. The price is generally stable [40][42] - **Pulp**: The inventory shows a marginal destocking trend. The strategy is to hold short positions in the main 11 - contract [42][44] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The strategy is to try to go long in the main 09 - contract [45][47] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: For the RU main 01 - contract, wait and see; for the NR main 10 - contract, try to go long. Consider arbitrage opportunities in RU2511 - NR2511 [47][49] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 was stable at $63.88 per barrel, Brent2510 rose $0.16 to $66.59 per barrel, and SC2510 fell to 493 yuan per barrel. The Brent main - secondary spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: The US and Russia may negotiate to end the Ukraine war, and India has put on hold the plan to purchase US weapons and is open to reducing Russian oil imports [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term feed demand is okay, and the market focuses on geopolitical events. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to be falsified [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: gasoline cracking is weak, diesel cracking is strong; Options: wait and see [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3484 points (+0.17%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3394 points (+0.09%) at night [3] - **Related News**: Shandong's mainstream transaction price fell by 5 yuan per ton, and the supply - demand pattern was loose [3] - **Logic Analysis**: July's actual output was higher than expected, and the demand in the south and north was weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [4][5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: wait and see [5] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 2776 (-0.82%) at night, and LU10 closed at 3464 (-0.89%) at night [5] - **Related News**: Iraq seized an oil tanker, and the domestic low - sulfur production in July decreased [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply pressure is slightly reduced, and low - sulfur supply is rising [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: wait and see [7] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6726 (-0.33%) on Friday and 6748 (+0.33%) at night [7] - **Related News**: China's PX and PTA operating rates increased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is recovering, and demand lacks upward drive [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [9] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4684 (-0.09%) on Friday and 4692 (+0.17%) at night [9] - **Related News**: China's PTA and polyester operating rates increased [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply load has rebounded, and demand lacks upward drive [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [12] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4384 (-0.27%) on Friday and 4391 (+0.16%) at night [12] - **Related News**: China's ethylene glycol operating rate increased [12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [14] Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 closed at 6382 (-0.16%) on Friday and 6398 (+0.25%) at night [15] - **Related News**: China's short - fiber operating rate increased, and the inventory increased [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has slightly increased [16] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [17] PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 closed at 5898 (-0.34%) on Friday and 5924 (+0.44%) at night [16][18] - **Related News**: The bottle - chip operating rate was flat, and the export price was lowered [18] - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee has rebounded and stabilized, and the price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [20] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 6204 (-0.70%) on Friday and 6213 (+0.15%) at night. EB2509 closed at 7235 (-0.84%) on Friday and 7230 (-0.07%) at night [19] - **Related News**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene and their downstream products changed [21] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene's supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and styrene's supply is expected to increase [21] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [20][22] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices were weakly volatile, and caustic soda spot prices were stable [22][23] - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling changed [23][24] - **Logic Analysis**: PVC's supply and demand are expected to be weak, and caustic soda's price is expected to be volatile [25][26] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: PVC hold short positions, caustic soda close short positions at low prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [27] Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The prices of LLDPE and PP in different regions changed [27] - **Related News**: The inventory of major producers increased [28] - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity is being put into production, and demand is expected to be weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [28] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [28][29] Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 2384 (-0.17%) at night [29] - **Related News**: International methanol production increased [29] - **Logic Analysis**: International supply is recovering, and domestic supply is abundant. The strategy is to short at high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: short at high prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell call options [30][31] Urea - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1728 (-0.52%) [31] - **Related News**: Northeast urea arrivals decreased [31] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is declining, and the strategy is to short at high prices [31] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: short at high prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell put options on dips [31][32] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1249 (-1.4%) on Friday and 1242 (-0.6%) at night [33] - **Related News**: Domestic soda ash inventory increased, and production increased [33][34] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [34][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: wait and see [35] Glass - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1063 (-1.21%) on Friday and 1064 (+0.09%) at night [35] - **Related News**: Glass inventory increased, and production was stable [35][36] - **Logic Analysis**: After the price increase, the inventory is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [36][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: wait and see [38] Log - **Market Review**: The 9 - contract price fell to 830.5 yuan per cubic meter [39] - **Related News**: Log prices were stable, and imports decreased [38] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is in a pulsed fluctuation, and demand improvement is limited [39][40] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: wait and see, aggressive investors can short near the previous high; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [40] Offset Printing Paper - **Market Review**: The double - offset paper market was generally stable [40] - **Related News**: Some production lines were shut down for maintenance, and Suzano cut production [40][42] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is slightly reduced, and demand support is general [42] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP main 11 - contract rose 0.23% [42] - **Related News**: Jiulong Paper raised prices, and downstream packaging enterprises responded [43][44] - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory shows a marginal destocking trend [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: hold short positions in the main 11 - contract; Arbitrage: wait and see [45] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The BR main 09 - contract rose 1.26% [45] - **Related News**: China's rubber imports increased [46][47] - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory changes vary [47] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: try to go long in the main 09 - contract; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [47] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: The RU main 01 - contract rose 0.77%, and the NR main 10 - contract rose 0.06% [47][48] - **Related News**: China's rubber imports increased [49] - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory changes vary [49] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: RU main 01 - contract wait and see, NR main 10 - contract try to go long; Arbitrage: consider RU2511 - NR2511; Options: wait and see [49]