泽连斯基表示，谈话顺利且富有成效，他祝贺特朗普成功推动中东地区达成协议，并相信特朗普有能力解决俄乌问题。 泽连斯基向特朗普通报了俄方对乌克兰能源设施的袭击情况，并感谢美方愿意提供支持的承诺。两国领导人讨论了增强乌克兰防空系统的可 能性，并就正在筹备的相关协议达成共识。 据央视新闻，乌克兰总统泽连斯基同美国总统特朗普通电话。 泽连斯基强调，现在需要俄方表现出参与真正外交进程的意愿，只有通过实力才能推动这一目标的实现。 ...

赵永升认为，解决俄乌问题是特朗普此次访问"最要紧的事"，特朗普希望英国能从中斡旋，说服欧洲盟 友通过非军事手段解决俄乌问题，避免爆发大规模冲突。而作为交换，美国可能在钢铁关税豁免等事宜 上对英国作出让步。 英国通常不会邀请美国连任总统进行国事访问，而在2月赴白宫与特朗普讨论英美贸易协议时，英国首 相斯塔默向特朗普递来了英国国王查尔斯三世的邀请函，并称这一安排"前所未有"，"具有重大意义"。 特朗普和斯塔默将时隔数月再次见面，在今年6月于加拿大召开的七国集团（G7）峰会上，两人签署了 英美《经济繁荣协议》。 时隔六年后，美国总统特朗普将于当地时间16日对英国进行"史无前例"的第二次国事访问。 "与之前（6月的会面）相比，特朗普此次与斯塔默的会面意义更加重大。"对外经济贸易大学国家对外 开放研究院研究员、巴黎索邦大学博士生导师赵永升对第一财经记者解释称，"当时更多是英国向美国 单方面的让步，然而这次访问则体现了双向合作，美国多家企业对英国作出了投资承诺。美国对日本和 欧盟并没有作出类似承诺，这也说明了美英两国关系的特殊性。" 一场"前所未有"，"具有重大意义"的访问？ 值得注意的是，特朗普此行正值俄乌冲突面临升级 ...

Group 1 - France has recently faced diplomatic criticism from multiple Western countries, including the US, Israel, and Italy, primarily regarding its policies on the Middle East peace process and European security issues [1] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu accused President Macron of exacerbating anti-Semitism by recognizing the Palestinian state, expressing concern over the rise of anti-Semitism in France [3] - The French government has altered its stance on the Israel-Palestine issue, as evidenced by its request to close Israeli exhibitors' booths at the Paris Air Show due to their display of offensive weapons [3] Group 2 - The US Ambassador to France, Charles Kushner, supported Israel's criticism of France, claiming that France has not taken sufficient measures to curb anti-Jewish violence [5] - France's Foreign Ministry rejected the ambassador's accusations, stating they violate international law and undermine trust between allies [5] - Italy's Deputy Prime Minister Salvini mocked Macron's proposal to send troops to Ukraine, suggesting that Macron should go himself, which led to a diplomatic protest from France [6][7] Group 3 - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have highlighted divisions within Western politics, with France and other European nations attempting to assert independent voices and solutions [7] - The proposed "voluntary alliance" led by France and the UK is discussing troop deployment to Ukraine if a ceasefire is reached, but Italy has repeatedly declined invitations to participate [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump suggested that President Putin might attend the 2026 World Cup, which will be co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico [3][5] - Trump displayed a photo of himself with Putin taken during their recent meeting in Alaska, indicating that Putin is interested in attending the event [3][5] - The World Cup draw ceremony is scheduled to take place in December at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., with the U.S. expected to host the majority of the over 100 matches [5] Group 2 - Trump expressed dissatisfaction regarding a recent attack on a U.S. factory in Ukraine by Russia, indicating ongoing tensions between the two countries [5][6] - The meeting between Trump and Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, was described as "constructive" and "productive," although no agreements were reached on issues such as a ceasefire in Ukraine [6] - Trump mentioned that developments regarding the situation in Ukraine could be expected in about two weeks, suggesting potential changes in U.S. strategy [6]

Group 1: Government Initiatives - The U.S. government has established the position of Chief Design Officer, with Joe Gebbia, co-founder of Airbnb, appointed as the first director [2] - The Chief Design Officer will report directly to the White House Chief of Staff and will focus on redesigning government forms and processes [2] - The National Design Studio, created under this initiative, is set to close in three years, aiming to reduce design costs and standardize government interactions with the public [2] Group 2: U.S.-Ukraine Relations - President Trump indicated that results regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation could be known in about two weeks, suggesting potential changes in U.S. strategy [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed hopes to clarify security guarantees within 7 to 10 days, aiming for a trilateral meeting with U.S. and Russian leaders [3][4] - Zelensky mentioned that approximately 30 countries are considering sending ground troops to support Ukraine, with the U.S. showing positive signals for participation [4] Group 3: Defense Procurement - The U.S. Department of Defense plans to procure approximately 7,480 tons of alloy-grade cobalt over the next five years, with a maximum procurement budget of $500 million [6] - Cobalt is a critical raw material for manufacturing batteries and components for aerospace engines, and the U.S. primarily relies on imports [6] - A report suggests that cobalt prices may enter an upward cycle due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to impact global supply significantly [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has established the position of Chief Design Officer, with Joe Gebbia, co-founder of Airbnb, appointed as the first director [2] - The Chief Design Officer will report directly to the White House Chief of Staff and will lead efforts to redesign government forms and processes [2] - The National Design Studio, created under this initiative, will provide recommendations to reduce design costs and standardize government websites, but will close after three years [2] Group 2 - President Trump indicated that a resolution regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation could be known in about two weeks, suggesting potential changes in U.S. strategy [3] - Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed security guarantees and the possibility of trilateral talks involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine [3][4] - Zelensky mentioned that around 30 countries are considering sending ground troops to support Ukraine, and the U.S. has shown positive signals regarding its involvement in security guarantees [4] Group 3 - The U.S. Department of Defense plans to procure approximately 7,480 tons of alloy-grade cobalt over the next five years, with a maximum procurement amount of $500 million [6] - Cobalt is a critical raw material for manufacturing batteries and high-temperature alloys, and the U.S. primarily relies on imports [6] - Analysts predict that cobalt prices may enter an upward cycle due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which is expected to impact global supply significantly [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Short - term, the market focuses on the cease - fire negotiation between the US and Russia on the Russia - Ukraine issue and India's attitude towards Russian oil sanctions. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to be falsified, and the price is bearish. Brent should pay attention to the support around $65.5 per barrel [1][2] - **Asphalt**: It maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term and more resistant to decline than crude oil. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3450 - 3550 [3][5] - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced, and the demand is mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply is rising and the demand has no specific driver. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7] - **PX**: Supply is recovering in August, and the demand side lacks upward drive. The price is expected to be in a range - bound consolidation [7][9] - **PTA**: Supply load has rebounded, and the demand side lacks upward drive. The price is expected to be in a range - bound consolidation [9][10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [12][13] - **Short Fiber**: The processing fee has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has slightly increased. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [15][16] - **PR (Bottle Chip)**: The processing fee has rebounded and stabilized. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [18][19] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene's supply and demand are expected to be relatively balanced, and the price has strong support. Styrene's supply is expected to increase, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The price of pure benzene is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [19][21] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC's supply and demand are expected to be weak, and short positions should be held. Caustic soda's price is expected to be in a volatile trend, and short positions should be closed at low prices [25][26] - **Plastic and PP**: The overall supply - demand pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [27][28] - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, and the strategy is to short at high prices without chasing the short [29][30] - **Urea**: Supply is abundant, and demand is declining. The strategy is to short at high prices without chasing the short [31] - **Soda Ash**: Supply increases, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [33][34] - **Glass**: After the price increase, the inventory is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [35][37] - **Log**: Supply is in a pulsed fluctuation, and demand improvement is limited. The market is generally stable and slightly strong, but long - term demand needs to be observed [38][40] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply is slightly reduced, and demand support is general. The price is generally stable [40][42] - **Pulp**: The inventory shows a marginal destocking trend. The strategy is to hold short positions in the main 11 - contract [42][44] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The strategy is to try to go long in the main 09 - contract [45][47] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: For the RU main 01 - contract, wait and see; for the NR main 10 - contract, try to go long. Consider arbitrage opportunities in RU2511 - NR2511 [47][49] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 was stable at $63.88 per barrel, Brent2510 rose $0.16 to $66.59 per barrel, and SC2510 fell to 493 yuan per barrel. The Brent main - secondary spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: The US and Russia may negotiate to end the Ukraine war, and India has put on hold the plan to purchase US weapons and is open to reducing Russian oil imports [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term feed demand is okay, and the market focuses on geopolitical events. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to be falsified [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: gasoline cracking is weak, diesel cracking is strong; Options: wait and see [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3484 points (+0.17%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3394 points (+0.09%) at night [3] - **Related News**: Shandong's mainstream transaction price fell by 5 yuan per ton, and the supply - demand pattern was loose [3] - **Logic Analysis**: July's actual output was higher than expected, and the demand in the south and north was weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [4][5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: wait and see [5] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 2776 (-0.82%) at night, and LU10 closed at 3464 (-0.89%) at night [5] - **Related News**: Iraq seized an oil tanker, and the domestic low - sulfur production in July decreased [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply pressure is slightly reduced, and low - sulfur supply is rising [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: wait and see [7] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6726 (-0.33%) on Friday and 6748 (+0.33%) at night [7] - **Related News**: China's PX and PTA operating rates increased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is recovering, and demand lacks upward drive [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [9] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4684 (-0.09%) on Friday and 4692 (+0.17%) at night [9] - **Related News**: China's PTA and polyester operating rates increased [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply load has rebounded, and demand lacks upward drive [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [12] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4384 (-0.27%) on Friday and 4391 (+0.16%) at night [12] - **Related News**: China's ethylene glycol operating rate increased [12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [14] Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 closed at 6382 (-0.16%) on Friday and 6398 (+0.25%) at night [15] - **Related News**: China's short - fiber operating rate increased, and the inventory increased [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has slightly increased [16] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [17] PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 closed at 5898 (-0.34%) on Friday and 5924 (+0.44%) at night [16][18] - **Related News**: The bottle - chip operating rate was flat, and the export price was lowered [18] - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee has rebounded and stabilized, and the price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [20] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 6204 (-0.70%) on Friday and 6213 (+0.15%) at night. EB2509 closed at 7235 (-0.84%) on Friday and 7230 (-0.07%) at night [19] - **Related News**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene and their downstream products changed [21] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene's supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and styrene's supply is expected to increase [21] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [20][22] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices were weakly volatile, and caustic soda spot prices were stable [22][23] - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling changed [23][24] - **Logic Analysis**: PVC's supply and demand are expected to be weak, and caustic soda's price is expected to be volatile [25][26] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: PVC hold short positions, caustic soda close short positions at low prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [27] Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The prices of LLDPE and PP in different regions changed [27] - **Related News**: The inventory of major producers increased [28] - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity is being put into production, and demand is expected to be weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [28] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [28][29] Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 2384 (-0.17%) at night [29] - **Related News**: International methanol production increased [29] - **Logic Analysis**: International supply is recovering, and domestic supply is abundant. The strategy is to short at high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: short at high prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell call options [30][31] Urea - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1728 (-0.52%) [31] - **Related News**: Northeast urea arrivals decreased [31] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is declining, and the strategy is to short at high prices [31] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: short at high prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell put options on dips [31][32] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1249 (-1.4%) on Friday and 1242 (-0.6%) at night [33] - **Related News**: Domestic soda ash inventory increased, and production increased [33][34] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [34][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: wait and see [35] Glass - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1063 (-1.21%) on Friday and 1064 (+0.09%) at night [35] - **Related News**: Glass inventory increased, and production was stable [35][36] - **Logic Analysis**: After the price increase, the inventory is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [36][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: wait and see [38] Log - **Market Review**: The 9 - contract price fell to 830.5 yuan per cubic meter [39] - **Related News**: Log prices were stable, and imports decreased [38] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is in a pulsed fluctuation, and demand improvement is limited [39][40] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: wait and see, aggressive investors can short near the previous high; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [40] Offset Printing Paper - **Market Review**: The double - offset paper market was generally stable [40] - **Related News**: Some production lines were shut down for maintenance, and Suzano cut production [40][42] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is slightly reduced, and demand support is general [42] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP main 11 - contract rose 0.23% [42] - **Related News**: Jiulong Paper raised prices, and downstream packaging enterprises responded [43][44] - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory shows a marginal destocking trend [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: hold short positions in the main 11 - contract; Arbitrage: wait and see [45] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The BR main 09 - contract rose 1.26% [45] - **Related News**: China's rubber imports increased [46][47] - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory changes vary [47] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: try to go long in the main 09 - contract; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [47] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: The RU main 01 - contract rose 0.77%, and the NR main 10 - contract rose 0.06% [47][48] - **Related News**: China's rubber imports increased [49] - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory changes vary [49] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: RU main 01 - contract wait and see, NR main 10 - contract try to go long; Arbitrage: consider RU2511 - NR2511; Options: wait and see [49]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the upcoming meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin scheduled for August 15 in Alaska, focusing on achieving a long-term peace solution for Ukraine [1] - Trump indicated that the US and Russia are "very close" to reaching an agreement regarding the Ukraine issue [1] - Russian officials confirmed the meeting and emphasized that the discussions will center on a peace plan for Ukraine [1] Group 2 - Prior to the meeting announcement, Trump stated that the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine depends on Putin, who does not need to agree to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky to hold talks with him [1] - Zelensky expressed that Ukraine's participation in negotiations is essential and called for the involvement of European countries in the discussions [1] - Putin mentioned that he is generally not opposed to a meeting with Zelensky but highlighted the need for certain conditions to be met first, indicating that significant progress is still required [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that additional pressure is needed to encourage Russia to return to the negotiation table regarding the Ukraine issue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the division among NATO allies regarding the U.S. refusal to provide air defense support for the UK and France's plan to establish a military presence in post-war Ukraine, emphasizing the need for U.S. guarantees to deter Russia's potential violations of future ceasefire agreements [1] Group 1: U.S. Position - The U.S. under President Trump is not willing to provide the guarantees sought by European allies, indicating a lack of consensus on how to address the Russia-Ukraine issue [1] - European officials have expressed that a strong Ukrainian military, supported by allied training and forces, is essential to deter Russia [1] Group 2: European Allies' Perspective - UK Prime Minister Starmer insists that U.S. backing is crucial for preventing Russia from attacking Ukraine again, stating that American security guarantees are the only effective means to stop further aggression [1] - The UK and France have been attempting to persuade the U.S. to provide air power, border surveillance, and intelligence support for their military plans in Ukraine [1]