专家解读求是网文章与地产政策展望 20260105 摘要 房地产市场受政策预期影响大，市场已形成政府不会放任下跌的认知， 但自 2022 年以来的救市措施效果有限，住建系统政策空间已基本用尽， 未来依赖地方因城施策，中央层面纾困政策或已见底。 传统房地产模式亟需转型，新模式包括项目公司独立法人地位和主办银 行制等基础性制度，优化住房供应结构，以及人房地钱要素联动，旨在 解决市场稳定问题并推动行业高质量发展。 现房销售制度旨在降低购房者风险，但面临开发商资金压力大、产品迭 代速度快等阻力，全面推行难度较大。预售资金监管严格，预售模式仍 有合理性。 保障性住房建设面临地方政府债务沉重、资金来源受限等挑战。盘活存 量用于保障住房存在道德风险，坚持市场化、法治化、商业可持续原则 至关重要。 "人防地钱"要素联动理念旨在优化供应，避免同质化竞争，但在地方层 面实施难度大，严格按照二手房、新房及土地库存供地将极大限制供地 规模。 Q&A 如何理解政策一次性给足的概念？ 政策一次性给足是总结 2022 年以来房地产救市的主要经验教训。高层希望通 过一次性出台所有必要政策，引导市场预期，避免市场对政策的依赖和反复调 整。房地 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is transitioning into a "stock era," with significant changes in supply and demand dynamics, primarily driven by young people and new urban residents [2][3] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing has decreased by 6.8% from January to October this year, but the decline is less severe compared to the same period last year [2] - The transaction volume of second-hand housing is increasing, with a notable rise in its market share, as it offers advantages such as lower total price and better location [2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - From January to October 2023, the transaction area of both new and second-hand housing in 30 key cities remained stable at 27,443 million square meters compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - The new housing market is increasingly catering to improvement needs, while the demand from young and new urban residents is shifting towards the second-hand housing market [2][3] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reports that 15 provinces have seen second-hand housing transactions surpass new housing sales [2] Group 2: Policy and Supply Management - The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, 2024, emphasized the need to control new housing supply, optimize existing stock, and improve quality as part of a new phase in housing supply-side management [3][4] - The strategy of controlling new supply aims to alleviate inventory pressure and stabilize housing prices, with new construction area declines narrowing to below 20% this year [4] - The focus on understanding housing demand changes across different demographics and regions is crucial for effective supply management, including the types of housing needed [4][5] Group 3: Quality and Demand Activation - High-quality housing supply is essential to stimulate demand, with a focus on improving not just new homes but also old and affordable housing [5] - The concept of "good housing" should be applied across various housing types, not limited to high-end properties, to encourage consumption and upgrade [5] - Efforts to enhance employment and income are necessary to boost consumer willingness and ability to invest in quality housing, creating a positive feedback loop between supply and demand [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a transformation, shifting from a phase of large-scale expansion to one focused on improving existing stock and efficiency during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The "stock" market is becoming the main focus, with 15 provinces reporting that second-hand housing transactions have surpassed new housing sales, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1] - The renovation and upgrading of existing housing stock is becoming a crucial source of housing supply, with 2,387 urban village renovation projects and over 2.3 million housing units constructed for resettlement during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 2: Sales Dynamics - The proportion of existing home sales is increasing, reflecting deeper reforms in real estate development, financing, and sales systems. From January to August this year, existing home sales grew by 11.7% year-on-year, while pre-sale housing sales fell by 11.8% [2] - Existing home sales accounted for 35.4% of total sales in the first eight months of this year, an increase of 4.6 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [2] Group 3: Resource Allocation - The interconnection of "people, housing, land, and money" is key to the transformation of the real estate market. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will guide local governments to determine housing demand based on population changes and to allocate land and financial resources accordingly [2][3] Group 4: Quality Housing Initiatives - The concept of "good housing" has been emphasized, with standards for "good housing" being defined in terms of design, materials, construction, and maintenance. This initiative aims to improve both new and existing housing [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a transformation, shifting from a phase of large-scale expansion to one focused on improving existing stock and quality [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The "stock" market is becoming dominant, with 15 provinces reporting that second-hand housing transactions have surpassed new housing sales, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1] - The renovation and upgrading of existing housing stock is becoming a crucial source of housing supply, with over 2,387 urban village renovation projects and 2.3 million housing units constructed for resettlement during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 2: Sales Dynamics - The proportion of existing home sales is increasing, reflecting deeper reforms in real estate development, financing, and sales systems. In the first eight months of this year, existing home sales grew by 11.7% year-on-year, while pre-sale housing sales fell by 11.8% [2] - Existing home sales accounted for 35.4% of total sales area in the first eight months, an increase of 4.6 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [2] Group 3: Resource Allocation - The interconnection of "people, housing, land, and finance" is key to the transformation of the real estate market. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will guide local governments to determine housing demand based on population changes and to allocate land and financial resources accordingly [2][3] Group 4: Quality Housing Initiatives - The concept of "good housing" has been emphasized in government reports, with standards for "good housing" defined in terms of design, materials, construction, and maintenance. This initiative aims to improve both new and existing housing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a historic transformation in supply and demand dynamics, necessitating a new development model that balances stability, growth, and transition [2][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes that the stable and healthy development of the real estate market fundamentally depends on the effective allocation of four resource factors: people, housing, land, and finance [2]. - The traditional policy approach to stimulate the market needs to be adjusted, moving away from short-term solutions to a more nuanced understanding of supply-demand relationships and resident needs [3][7]. Group 2: "Guarantee Delivery" Initiatives - The "Guarantee Delivery" initiative remains a key focus in constructing the new real estate development model, with significant progress reported during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4]. - Over 7 trillion yuan in loan approvals have been granted for projects on the "white list," aimed at ensuring normal construction funding and timely project delivery [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Sales Data - From January to September 2025, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 26,065.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.2% [5]. - The market is transitioning to a "stock era," where the volume of second-hand housing transactions is surpassing that of new homes in 15 provinces, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6]. Group 4: Future Development Strategies - The new model emphasizes a shift from incremental to stock thinking, focusing on matching supply with actual demand rather than forcing supply based on government land purchases [7]. - The establishment of a mechanism for the interconnection of the four resource factors is underway, with local governments actively planning and assessing housing development strategies for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [7].