2024年9月26日召开的中央政治局会议提出，要促进房地产市场止跌回稳，对商品房建设要严控增量、 优化存量、提高质量。这12字方针是新阶段住房供给侧管理的基调，其背后逻辑，就是中央城市工作会 议"两个转向"的重大判断——即城镇化正从快速增长期转向稳定发展期，城市发展正从大规模增量扩张 阶段转向存量提质增效为主的阶段。 李宇嘉（广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员） 根据11月14日国家统计局发布的数据，今年1-10月份，全国新建商品住房销售面积下降6.8%，降幅比去 年同期有所收窄。值得注意的是，分析商品房市场形势，要站在房地产供求关系发生重大变化，住房市 场进入存量时代，房子回归居住属性这个全新的形势下。新的形势下，最大的变化就是需求端以年轻 人、新市民为主导的刚需、刚改需求占主导。 由于二手住房具有"总价低、区位好、配套好、即买即住"等优点，存量时代下二手住房挂牌量也明显增 加，可选择房源较多，加上新的需求主体对价格较敏感，自然二手住房就成为交易的主体。所以，近年 来二手住房交易回稳，占比上升，逐渐占据主导。根据克而瑞的数据，2023年-2025年1-10月份，全国 30个重点城市二手住房交易同比分别增长33 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a transformation, shifting from a phase of large-scale expansion to one focused on improving existing stock and efficiency during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The "stock" market is becoming the main focus, with 15 provinces reporting that second-hand housing transactions have surpassed new housing sales, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1] - The renovation and upgrading of existing housing stock is becoming a crucial source of housing supply, with 2,387 urban village renovation projects and over 2.3 million housing units constructed for resettlement during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 2: Sales Dynamics - The proportion of existing home sales is increasing, reflecting deeper reforms in real estate development, financing, and sales systems. From January to August this year, existing home sales grew by 11.7% year-on-year, while pre-sale housing sales fell by 11.8% [2] - Existing home sales accounted for 35.4% of total sales in the first eight months of this year, an increase of 4.6 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [2] Group 3: Resource Allocation - The interconnection of "people, housing, land, and money" is key to the transformation of the real estate market. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will guide local governments to determine housing demand based on population changes and to allocate land and financial resources accordingly [2][3] Group 4: Quality Housing Initiatives - The concept of "good housing" has been emphasized, with standards for "good housing" being defined in terms of design, materials, construction, and maintenance. This initiative aims to improve both new and existing housing [3]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a transformation, shifting from a phase of large-scale expansion to one focused on improving existing stock and quality [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The "stock" market is becoming dominant, with 15 provinces reporting that second-hand housing transactions have surpassed new housing sales, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1] - The renovation and upgrading of existing housing stock is becoming a crucial source of housing supply, with over 2,387 urban village renovation projects and 2.3 million housing units constructed for resettlement during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 2: Sales Dynamics - The proportion of existing home sales is increasing, reflecting deeper reforms in real estate development, financing, and sales systems. In the first eight months of this year, existing home sales grew by 11.7% year-on-year, while pre-sale housing sales fell by 11.8% [2] - Existing home sales accounted for 35.4% of total sales area in the first eight months, an increase of 4.6 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [2] Group 3: Resource Allocation - The interconnection of "people, housing, land, and finance" is key to the transformation of the real estate market. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will guide local governments to determine housing demand based on population changes and to allocate land and financial resources accordingly [2][3] Group 4: Quality Housing Initiatives - The concept of "good housing" has been emphasized in government reports, with standards for "good housing" defined in terms of design, materials, construction, and maintenance. This initiative aims to improve both new and existing housing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a historic transformation in supply and demand dynamics, necessitating a new development model that balances stability, growth, and transition [2][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes that the stable and healthy development of the real estate market fundamentally depends on the effective allocation of four resource factors: people, housing, land, and finance [2]. - The traditional policy approach to stimulate the market needs to be adjusted, moving away from short-term solutions to a more nuanced understanding of supply-demand relationships and resident needs [3][7]. Group 2: "Guarantee Delivery" Initiatives - The "Guarantee Delivery" initiative remains a key focus in constructing the new real estate development model, with significant progress reported during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4]. - Over 7 trillion yuan in loan approvals have been granted for projects on the "white list," aimed at ensuring normal construction funding and timely project delivery [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Sales Data - From January to September 2025, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 26,065.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.2% [5]. - The market is transitioning to a "stock era," where the volume of second-hand housing transactions is surpassing that of new homes in 15 provinces, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6]. Group 4: Future Development Strategies - The new model emphasizes a shift from incremental to stock thinking, focusing on matching supply with actual demand rather than forcing supply based on government land purchases [7]. - The establishment of a mechanism for the interconnection of the four resource factors is underway, with local governments actively planning and assessing housing development strategies for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [7].