Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from pre-sale housing to a new model of selling completed homes, emphasizing the need for a sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market in China, while addressing the risks associated with pre-sale properties [2][4]. Group 1: Current Real Estate Practices - The pre-sale system for housing has been in place since 1994, allowing developers to sell properties before they are built, which has facilitated urbanization and real estate development in China [1][3]. - The pre-sale model was initially successful, contributing to a significant increase in per capita housing space from 7.1 square meters in 1990 to over 40 square meters by 2024 [3]. Group 2: Challenges and Changes - The real estate market is currently facing challenges, including a decrease in demand and land sales, leading to a transformation in the industry as the previous "land finance" model becomes unsustainable [4][5]. - The government is advocating for a shift to a completed home sales model, which is seen as a part of a new development strategy, with a focus on stabilizing the market and reducing risks associated with unfinished properties [5][6]. Group 3: Implications of the New Sales Model - The new model will change the dynamics for developers, requiring them to focus on quality construction rather than leveraging financial risks [6]. - Local governments will need to innovate and shift their focus from land sales to enhancing housing quality and standards, which may involve new policies and incentives for developers [6]. - For consumers, the completed home sales model promises reduced risks of unfinished projects and a more transparent purchasing process, potentially leading to a greater sense of security in home buying [6].

Employment - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security plans to implement a "Stabilizing Jobs and Expanding Quality" action in 2026, focusing on key groups for employment support [2] - A document addressing the impact of artificial intelligence on employment will be released, alongside initiatives like the "Skills Illuminate the Future" training program [2] - Public employment recruitment activities will be enhanced, including the "Spring Breeze Action" and "Spring Warmth for Migrant Workers" service actions [2] Rights Protection - A new regulation for the basic rights of workers in new employment forms will be established, along with provisions for older workers [4] - The Ministry will promote the implementation of paid annual leave for employees by revising the relevant regulations [4] Social Security - The coverage of social insurance will be expanded to include flexible and new employment forms [5] Education - A new round of "Double First Class" construction will be initiated, focusing on high-quality development of local universities and optimizing educational resource distribution [6] - The Ministry aims to enhance basic education resources to better respond to changes in school-age populations and ensure educational equity [6] Fertility - By 2026, the goal is to achieve "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth within policy coverage, with improvements in prenatal care cost coverage [8] - The inclusion of flexible workers and migrant workers in maternity insurance coverage will be promoted [8] Elderly Care - The focus will be on improving care for elderly individuals with disabilities and dementia, alongside developing rural elderly care services [9] Taxation - Tax reforms will be deepened to optimize the tax structure and enhance local government financial autonomy [10] - National coordination of basic pension insurance and provincial coordination of basic medical insurance will be promoted [10] Housing - The implementation of a "current housing sales system" will be advanced to mitigate delivery risks in the real estate market [12] - Regulations on pre-sale fund supervision will be established to protect the legal rights of homebuyers [12]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - New home transaction area has turned negative on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year decline expanding [3][13] - Second-hand home transaction area has increased month-on-month and turned positive year-on-year [3][13] - New home inventory area has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the de-stocking cycle has increased [3][13] Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transaction volume in 40 cities was 16,000 units, down 16.2% month-on-month and down 32.2% year-on-year [14][20] - The new home transaction area was 151.5 million square meters, down 9.7% month-on-month and down 39.6% year-on-year [22][39] - Transaction volume and area for first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities showed varying declines [14][19] 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - In 18 cities, second-hand home transaction volume was 20,000 units, up 2.9% month-on-month and up 9.1% year-on-year [49][51] - The transaction area was 188.2 million square meters, up 4.4% month-on-month and up 18.1% year-on-year [51][52] - First, second, third, and fourth-tier cities exhibited different growth rates in transaction volume and area [45][49] 3. Inventory Situation - New home inventory in 12 cities was 1.373 million units, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% [35][38] - The de-stocking cycle for new home inventory was 17.7 months, increasing month-on-month and year-on-year [27][38] - Inventory levels and de-stocking cycles varied across city tiers [26][27] 4. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area in 100 cities was 1,044.9 million square meters, down 3.1% month-on-month but up 0.4% year-on-year [59][60] - Total land transaction value was 16.33 billion yuan, down 1.5% month-on-month and down 15.5% year-on-year [10][65] - The average land price per square meter was 1,562.8 yuan, up 1.7% month-on-month but down 15.8% year-on-year [10][61] 5. Policy Insights - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued measures to support urban renewal [3] - Emphasis on stabilizing housing prices and improving market confidence through various policy measures [3][11]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced narrow fluctuations with a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4122.58 points, up 0.14%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 14327.05 points, up 0.5% [1][10] - Among the 30 sectors, 21 sectors saw an increase, with oil and petrochemicals, building materials, and telecommunications leading the gains, while automotive, pharmaceuticals, and banking sectors experienced significant declines [1][10] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 27,164 billion, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [1][10] Overseas Market Overview - All three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.63%, the S&P 500 up 0.55%, and the Nasdaq up 0.91% [2][10] - The U.S. technology index rose by 1.47%, with Facebook increasing by over 5% and Tesla rising by more than 4% [2][10] - Most Chinese concept stocks also saw gains, with Xiaoma Zhixing up nearly 6% and Canadian Solar up over 5% [2][10] Key News Highlights - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring a reasonable recovery in prices [3][12] - Six major banks collectively announced the implementation of the latest fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans [3][14] - The market regulatory authority issued a warning regarding mergers and acquisitions in the public utility sector, marking a significant regulatory action [3][18] - The public fund's fourth-quarter report for 2025 has been disclosed, with a focus on electronic and power equipment sectors [3][20] - Important global economic data has been released, indicating various trends in different markets [3][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The spot freight rate was affected by the cancellation of full - scale tax refunds for photovoltaic products and the seasonal demand of Christmas. The geopolitical situation might improve, and the freight rate declined significantly. The freight rate market was generally greatly influenced by seasonal demand. It was recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and timely track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closed at 1137.7, up 6.6; EC sub - main contract closed at 1399.1, up 31.8. The spread between EC2604 - EC2606 was - 261.4, down 13.1; the spread between EC2604 - EC2608 was - 360.7, down 4.3. The EC contract basis was 816.49, down 8 [1] - The main contract EC2604 of the container shipping index (European line) futures rose 0.58%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 3% [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1954.19, down 2.1 points from last week, with a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. SCFI (composite index) was 1574.12, down 0.04; SCFIS (US West line) was 1305.27, down 73.27 [1] - CCFI (composite index) was 1209.85, up 14.96; CCFI (European line) was 1582.60, up 14.85. The 1803.00 index was down 74.00, and the Panama - type freight index was 1606.00, down 36.00 [1] - The average charter price of Panamax ships was 0.00, up 0.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 22377.00, up 791.00 [1] - The spot freight rate in the fourth week was between 2600 - 3200 US dollars for a large container. Maersk's large container price in the fourth - week opening was 2700 US dollars, up 100 US dollars from the third week [1] 3.3 Industry News - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development said that during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, efforts would be made to promote the high - quality development of the real estate industry, focusing on building "good houses" and constructing a new real estate development model, and promoting the spot - sale system of commercial housing [1] - US President Trump reached an agreement framework with NATO Secretary - General Rutter on the Greenland issue and would not implement the originally scheduled tariff measures on February 1 [1] - Russian President Putin met with US President's special envoy Witkov on January 22. He believed that the US - Denmark issue on Greenland had nothing to do with Russia and that the two countries would reach an agreement. Russia was willing to pay 1 billion US dollars from the frozen assets in the US to join the "Peace Committee" [1] - Starting from April 1, 2026, all listed photovoltaic products would no longer enjoy VAT export tax - refund incentives, which might lead to a rush of shipments and boost long - term contract cargo volume, but weaken the support on the spot side [1] - China's manufacturing PMI data in December showed a slight recovery, in line with seasonal rules. The new export order index rose to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand boosted by Christmas [1] - Zelensky said that the negotiations with the US and Europe had reached a new level, and there was hope to end the conflict with Russia in the first half of 2026, and the expectation of the Red Sea resuming navigation had improved [1] - Eurozone inflationary pressure eased, weakening the market's expectation of the European Central Bank raising interest rates before the end of the year. The Eurozone CPI in December returned to the medium - term target set by the ECB [1] 3.4 Upcoming Data Release Schedule - Japan's December core CPI annual rate on January 23 at 07:30 - UK's December seasonally - adjusted retail sales month - on - month rate on January 23 at 15:00 - France's January manufacturing PMI preliminary value on January 23 at 16:15 - Germany's January manufacturing PMI preliminary value on January 23 at 16:30 - Eurozone's January manufacturing PMI preliminary value on January 23 at 17:00 - UK's January manufacturing PMI preliminary value on January 23 at 17:30 - US's January S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value on January 23 at 22:45 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, Trump's easing attitude towards geopolitical risks has alleviated market concerns, and the three major US stock indexes closed higher overnight, but Japan's fiscal issues still need continuous attention. Domestically, market enthusiasm has heated up again, with the four major indexes continuing their divergent trends, and the risks of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 indexes are relatively high [2] Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts of the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [4][5][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on January 21, 2026, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.13, up 0.70%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3295.52, up 0.54%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4723.07, up 0.09%; the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 3067.18, down 0.11%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 8340.11, up 1.12%; and the CSI 1000 Index closed at 8247.68, up 0.79% [12] - The charts also include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - For the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, the trading volume of IF was 120330 (down 9379), and the open interest was 286813 (down 6447); the trading volume of IH was 54491 (up 5763), and the open interest was 96124 (up 4576); the trading volume of IC was 171870 (down 41699), and the open interest was 330051 (down 8110); the trading volume of IM was 214526 (down 31314), and the open interest was 381688 (down 6771) [14] - Regarding the basis of stock index futures, for IF, the basis of the current - month contract was 1.13 (up 9.41), the basis of the next - month contract was - 0.27 (up 10.01), the basis of the current - quarter contract was - 35.27 (up 9.61), and the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 91.07 (up 12.81); for IH, the basis of the current - month contract was 2.62 (down 0.33), the basis of the next - month contract was 6.42 (up 1.67), the basis of the current - quarter contract was 2.82 (up 3.87), and the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 30.58 (down 0.73); for IC, the basis of the current - month contract was 33.09 (up 23.09), the basis of the next - month contract was 30.89 (up 29.89), the basis of the current - quarter contract was - 70.31 (up 35.49), and the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 182.11 (up 41.49); for IM, the basis of the current - month contract was 12.32 (up 32.87), the basis of the next - month contract was - 16.68 (up 45.27), the basis of the current - quarter contract was - 196.08 (up 40.67), and the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 357.68 (up 47.07) [41] - For the inter - period spreads of stock index futures, there are detailed data on the spreads between different contract periods of IF, IH, IC, and IM, such as the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts, the next - quarter and current - month contracts, etc. [46][47]

Group 1 - The proportion of gold in global reserve assets is continuously rising, with central banks showing no signs of slowing down their gold purchases. Morgan Stanley indicates that gold's share in central bank assets has increased from approximately 14% to 25%-28%, and this upward trend shows no signs of abating. Risk premiums and hedging behaviors will continue to exert pressure on the US dollar while supporting gold demand. Additionally, policy factors driving "de-dollarization" are currently in a "neutral to slightly accelerating" state, and the evolution of these policies in the short term will determine the extent of the de-dollarization trend [1] Group 2 - China Mobile has launched insurance products through its subsidiary, signaling a rapid expansion of telecom operators into the financial sector. The products, "Mobile Health Insurance" and "Mobile Home Insurance," are currently being trialed in select regions like Shandong and can be purchased at offline service centers. This move highlights the telecom operator's strategy to leverage its extensive offline channel network and customer resources to penetrate the financial insurance services market [2] Group 3 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in China is advancing a new model for real estate development, emphasizing the implementation of a current housing sales system. This approach aims to ensure that buyers receive what they see, fundamentally mitigating delivery risks. The ministry will continue to support reasonable financing needs of real estate companies and maintain the rights of homebuyers through regulated pre-sale fund supervision [3] Group 4 - The upcoming Spring Festival travel period is expected to witness unprecedented levels of cross-regional personnel movement, with both railway and civil aviation passenger volumes projected to reach historical highs. The emphasis will be on self-driving travel, prompting local authorities to enhance road management and service guarantees. This indicates a peak demand period for industries related to energy supply, road services, and vehicle maintenance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the need to accelerate the establishment of a new model for real estate development, focusing on ensuring housing for the people while promoting policy support and reform innovation [1] Group 1: Real Estate Development - The focus is on establishing a project company system where project companies exercise independent legal rights, and headquarters fulfill investor responsibilities, prohibiting any unauthorized fund transfers or early dividends before project delivery [1] - Ensuring closed management of project funds and dedicated use of funds is a priority [1] Group 2: Real Estate Financing - The implementation of a lead bank system is proposed, where one bank or a consortium is designated as the lead bank for each project, ensuring that all funds for development, construction, and sales are deposited with the lead bank to meet reasonable financing needs [1] Group 3: Property Sales - The promotion of a "current housing sales system" aims to allow buyers to see and receive what they purchase, fundamentally preventing delivery risks [1] - For projects that continue to use pre-sales, there will be regulations on the supervision of pre-sale funds to protect the legitimate rights and interests of homebuyers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The land transaction scale is expected to rebound in December 2025, with a smaller year-on-year decline, as the traditional peak trading period approaches [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand - As of December 25, 2025, the land supply area is 66.74 million square meters, reflecting a 77% month-on-month decrease and a 26% year-on-year decrease [2] - The decline in year-on-year supply is expanding, with a 14 percentage point increase compared to the previous month [2] - Major cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou have land listings, with Shanghai's land auction prices reaching 2.56 billion yuan for a plot in Pudong [2][3] Group 2: Market Activity - Nationally, the area of land sold through auctions reached 270 million square meters, a 190% month-on-month increase, but a 7% year-on-year decrease [7] - The total transaction amount for land sales is 634.1 billion yuan, up 153% month-on-month but down 15% year-on-year [7] - The average floor price across the country is 2365 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 13% month-on-month decrease [7] Group 3: Market Heat - The average premium rate for land sales in December is 2.1%, indicating a low-level decline [10] - High premium transactions still occur for quality plots, with notable sales in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, where some plots sold at over 15% premium [10][12] - The land auction failure rate is 8%, remaining at a near-low level, with several cities experiencing unsuccessful bids due to uncertain sales prospects [14] Group 4: Key Land Transactions - The highest total price for a land transaction in December is 8.456 billion yuan for a plot in Beijing, with a premium of 0.4% [16] - In Wuhan, several plots were sold at a total price of 12.9 billion yuan, with prime locations near the Yangtze River [4][16] - The highest premium rate was recorded in Shenzhen, where a plot was sold at a 42% premium, totaling 3.2 billion yuan [17]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term supply-demand relationship in the real estate market is improving, with more signs of stabilization expected in 2026 [1][6]. Group 1: Supply and Demand - The supply side continues to control growth, with a significant month-on-month increase in transactions, while year-on-year figures continue to decline. The supply area for December was 66.74 million square meters, down 26% year-on-year. Transaction volume reached 270 million square meters, up 190% month-on-month, but down 7% year-on-year [4][10]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in December was 2.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points month-on-month. The heat of land auctions remains concentrated in a few cities and specific sectors, with high premium land sales in cities like Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Nanjing [5][22]. - The supply of land is expected to be further optimized in 2026, with a focus on controlling new land supply and promoting the construction of quality housing [14]. Group 2: Market Heat - The average premium rate for December was at a low of 2.1%, indicating a decline in market heat. However, some high-quality plots still achieved high premiums, such as those in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with Nanjing setting a new city price record [22][30]. - The land auction failure rate was 8%, remaining at a near-low level. Specific cities like Chengdu and Guangzhou experienced land that failed to sell due to uncertain future sales prospects or insufficient bids [25]. Group 3: Key Plots - The highest total price for land transactions in December was for a plot in Beijing's Haidian District, sold for 8.456 billion yuan, with a premium of 0.4%. Other notable transactions included high-premium plots in Shenzhen and Guangzhou [31][32]. - The average floor price for land in Beijing's second ring was 81,000 yuan per square meter, indicating high demand in prime locations [34].