Policy Initiatives - Yueyang Pingjiang County is promoting the sale of existing homes by providing seven types of rewards for projects that sell newly constructed homes after passing inspection, including a floor price discount of 150 yuan per square meter[4] - Sichuan province will subsidize up to 30% of the actual cash value for additional home purchase rewards given to resettlement recipients using housing vouchers during land acquisition and urban village renovations[5] - Chongqing is allowing the reasonable conversion of existing commercial office land use, which will help accelerate the utilization of idle land and restore market supply-demand balance[7] Financial Policy Adjustments - Multiple regions, including Hubei and Zhaotong, are optimizing housing provident fund policies, with Hubei eliminating the difference in loan limits for first and second homes and expanding the withdrawal scope for renovations[9] - The maximum loan limit for housing provident funds in Zhaotong has been increased from 60 million to 80 million yuan for single contributors, and from 90 million to 100 million yuan for dual contributors[15] Market Recovery Strategies - The recent policy adjustments aim to accelerate market recovery and stabilize housing demand by enhancing financial support and optimizing existing asset utilization[10] - The focus on existing asset revitalization and housing loan policy optimization is expected to facilitate a quicker return to supply-demand equilibrium in the real estate market[10]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in Shijiazhuang for the period of January to October 2025 Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of real estate in improving people's living standards and promoting high-quality development, indicating a long-term positive direction for the industry [3][12] - In the short term, increased supply in core cities is expected to support new home sales, while second-hand home transactions are anticipated to maintain a certain scale, although prices may continue to face pressure [3][4] Sales Performance Summary - The top 10 real estate companies in Shijiazhuang achieved a total sales amount of 35.598 billion yuan, with the threshold for entry being 657 million yuan. Shijiazhuang Chengfa Investment Group led with sales of 15.112 billion yuan, followed by Poly Development at 6.360 billion yuan and Greentown China at 6.300 billion yuan [4][5] - The total sales area for the top 10 companies reached 2.2902 million square meters, with Shijiazhuang Chengfa Investment Group also leading in this category at 1.1397 million square meters [4][5] - The top 20 projects in Shijiazhuang recorded a total sales amount of 19.180 billion yuan, with the highest-performing project being Chengfa Investment's Yunhefu, achieving sales of 2.556 billion yuan [7][8] Market Trends - The average transaction price for commercial residential properties in Shijiazhuang was 14,707 yuan per square meter in October 2025 [21] - The most significant proportion of transactions in the residential market was for properties sized between 120-160 square meters, accounting for 41.47% of total transactions [22] - The report highlights a focus on urban renewal and the promotion of high-quality housing, aligning with national policies aimed at improving living conditions and urban infrastructure [10][15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the real estate market, emphasizing the shift from concerns about affordability to issues related to selling properties, highlighting the need for a reassessment of property values in the current economic climate [2][4]. Market Trends - From January to September, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, with a slight price increase in new homes during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, while the second-hand housing market continues to adjust [3]. - The construction of new commercial housing is projected to see a 12.9% year-on-year decline in sales area for 2024, with an increasing number of second-hand homes listed for sale since the second half of 2023 [10]. Policy Direction - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, shifting focus from merely increasing supply to improving the quality of housing [8][11]. - The plan aims to increase the supply of improvement housing, which refers to new homes purchased to enhance living quality, rather than just meeting basic housing needs [11]. Housing Quality - Key aspects of what constitutes a "good house" include safety, comfort, green technology, and smart features, with a focus on improving property management and quality of service [12][14]. - The article suggests implementing a full lifecycle safety management system for homes, including regular safety inspections and quality insurance [14][15]. Sales Model Transformation - The promotion of a "current housing sales system" aims to mitigate delivery risks associated with pre-sale models, ensuring buyers receive what they see [15][17]. - The proportion of current housing sales has increased from 10% in 2019 to 33% at the beginning of this year, indicating a trend towards this model [17]. Demographic Shifts - The article notes that the aging population and urbanization trends are influencing housing demand, with a significant focus on improving housing for the elderly and accommodating young families in major cities [22][24]. - The core urban areas continue to attract population inflows, with cities like Hangzhou expected to see a population increase of 102,000 in 2024 [18]. Expert Opinions - Experts suggest that the real estate market will continue to adjust and stabilize, with significant differentiation between core and non-core areas in major cities [21]. - Recommendations include monitoring housing prices in core urban areas and considering rental options in less populated cities [21][24]. Future Policy Recommendations - Potential policy measures include lowering mortgage rates, optimizing purchase restrictions in major cities, and encouraging investment in quality housing projects [23][26]. - The article also discusses innovative approaches to managing unsold properties, such as converting them into rental units or public housing [24].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan's Pingjiang County has implemented a comprehensive policy for selling completed residential properties, marking a significant shift in the real estate market towards a "completed house sales era" [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The new policy requires that newly built commercial housing projects on newly transferred land can only start sales after passing completion inspection [3]. - Pingjiang County is the first county in Hunan to fully implement the completed house sales policy, aiming to boost market confidence [3][4]. - The local government has introduced various incentives for real estate companies, including reduced administrative fees and land price discounts, to ease the financial burden associated with completed house sales [3][4]. Group 2: Market Impact - From January to October, Pingjiang County recorded 1,845 new commercial housing sales, totaling 246,400 square meters, with a year-on-year sales area increase of 6.83% [3]. - The proportion of completed house sales in Pingjiang has risen to 62%, with several projects like Jiangyu City and Yucheng New World delivering homes ahead of schedule [3][4]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The policy aligns with the central government's push for high-quality development in the real estate sector, emphasizing the need for improved housing quality and consumer protection [6][7]. - The shift to completed house sales is expected to enhance product quality among real estate companies, as they will need to focus on delivering higher standards to remain competitive [8]. - The implementation of this policy in areas with high inventory levels is anticipated to help balance supply and demand in the real estate market, facilitating a transition towards a new development model [8].

Core Viewpoint - Pingjiang County in Hunan has become the first county in the province to fully implement the sale of completed residential properties, marking a significant shift towards a "completed house sales era" in the real estate market [1][2]. Group 1: Implementation of Current Housing Sales - The new policy mandates that new residential projects on newly transferred land can only start sales after passing completion inspections [2]. - The local government aims to boost market confidence through this policy, which was developed after extensive consultations with real estate companies and citizen representatives [2]. - From January to October this year, Pingjiang County recorded 1,845 new residential units sold, totaling 246,400 square meters, with a year-on-year sales area increase of 6.83% [2]. Group 2: Support Measures for Real Estate Companies - To alleviate the financial pressure on real estate companies due to the long capital occupation cycle of completed housing sales, Pingjiang County offers several incentives, including phased planning approvals, reduced administrative fees, and land price discounts [2][3]. - The proportion of completed housing sales in Pingjiang has risen to 62% [2]. Group 3: Broader Policy Context - The article references a signed article by the Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, emphasizing the need for high-quality development in the real estate sector, including the promotion of completed housing sales to mitigate delivery risks [4]. - The implementation of completed housing sales is not a one-size-fits-all approach, as it will be gradually rolled out in areas with significant inventory [5]. Group 4: Implications for Stakeholders - For homebuyers, completed housing sales reduce purchasing risks, while for real estate companies, this model encourages a focus on quality, enhancing product competitiveness [5]. - The shift towards completed housing sales is expected to improve market supply-demand dynamics, particularly in areas with high inventory, and will necessitate higher quality standards for construction projects [5].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the current policy is promoting the sale of existing homes, which is expected to lead to a further decline in land acquisition by real estate companies due to risk cost control [4] - In October 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales amount of 253 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 0.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 41.9% [4] - The average premium rate for land transactions in October was 2.7%, the lowest of the year [4] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Industry Fundamentals Tracking - New home transaction area in 30 major cities last week was 198.27 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 7,469.89 million square meters this year, showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% [5][13] - The average transaction area for new homes in first-tier cities over the past four weeks was 48.72 million square meters, down 42.5% year-on-year [5][13] - The inventory of available residential properties in 14 cities was 79.93 million square meters, down 7.93% year-on-year [16] 2. Secondary Housing Transactions and Listings - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 20 cities last week was 216.37 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 9,303.71 million square meters this year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [19][21] - The listing index for second-hand homes nationwide was 5.46, down 12.6% month-on-month [23] 3. Land Market Transactions - In the last week, 194 residential land plots were newly supplied in 100 major cities, with 84 plots successfully sold [28] - The average floor price for residential land transactions was 5,464.25 yuan per square meter, with a premium rate of 3.1% [28] 4. Market Review - The A-share real estate index fell by 0.7% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.43% [31] - The real estate sector ranked 26th among 31 first-level industries in A-shares last week [32]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not mentioned Group 2 - Core view: After the rebound, the market will consolidate in the short term [3] Group 3 - Relevant logic: The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, proposed to reform and improve real estate development, financing, and sales systems and promote the ready - made housing sales system. From January to September, 24,300 urban old community renovation projects were newly started, and 11 regions completed the annual plan. Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.61%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 45.02%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 52.99%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 1.36 percentage points year - on - year; the average start - up rate was 68.83%, an increase of 0.97 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 2.7 percentage points year - on - year [2] - Market performance: Steel products rose first and then fell last week, with the overall center of gravity moving up. The rise was mainly due to macro - level benefits such as the consensus reached in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. After the macro - level benefits were realized, the fundamentals of the varieties changed little. Although some steel mills in Hebei were restricted due to environmental protection, the weekly supply - demand and inventory changes were neutral, and the low - level downstream situation limited the increase in steel prices [2] - Later concerns: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]

Hot News - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fuan, stated that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, funds such as special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be used comprehensively to optimize government investment directions and encourage private capital to participate in major project construction; tax, social security, and transfer payments will be adjusted to optimize the income distribution structure and boost consumption; and work will be done to replace the existing implicit debts of local governments, with strict accountability for illegal debt-raising and false debt reduction [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics announced that in October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non-manufacturing PMI was 50.1, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, pointed out that the real estate development, financing, and sales systems need to be reformed and improved. In terms of commercial housing sales, the spot sales system will be promoted to fundamentally prevent delivery risks; for pre-sales, the supervision of pre-sale funds will be standardized to protect the legitimate rights and interests of homebuyers [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that soybean meal and corn series options contracts will be listed for trading on February 2, 2026 (i.e., the night session on January 30). The first batch of contracts will start with the series options contracts corresponding to soybean meal M2607 and corn C2607 [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration issued an announcement on the tax policy for gold, which will be implemented from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027. Industry insiders believe that the policy further improves the existing gold market policy, better distinguishes the commodity and financial attributes of gold, and the adjustment of the VAT policy for gold purchased on the exchange is expected to make the gold market consumption and investment environment more transparent and healthy [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, crude oil, and PVC [4] Holiday Overseas Performance Sector Performance - Non-metallic building materials had a 3.11% increase; precious metals had a 29.39% increase; oilseeds and oils had a 9.56% increase; non-ferrous metals had a 23.08% increase; soft commodities had a 2.66% increase; coal, coke, and steel mines had a 13.49% increase; energy had a 2.87% increase; chemicals had a 10.78% increase; grains had a 1.15% increase; and agricultural and sideline products had a 3.92% increase [4] Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, and steel mines, Wind non-ferrous metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non-metallic building materials [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.81%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 17.99%; the SSE 50 had a daily decline of 1.15%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 12.17%; the CSI 300 had a daily decline of 1.47%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 17.94%; the CSI 500 had a daily decline of 0.74%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 28.04%; the S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.26%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 16.30%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily decline of 1.43%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 29.15%; the German DAX had a daily decline of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 20.34%; the Nikkei 225 had a daily increase of 2.12%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 31.37%; the UK FTSE 100 had a daily decline of 0.44%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 18.89% [6] Fixed Income - The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.04%, an annual decrease of 0.22%; the 5-year treasury bond futures had a daily decline of -0.01%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of 0.45%; the 2-year treasury bond futures had a daily decline of -0.02%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of 0.42% [6] Commodity - The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.59%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 1.96%; WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.50%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of -15.36%; London spot gold had a daily decline of -0.54%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 52.53%; LME copper had a daily decline of -0.23%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 24.03%; the Wind commodity index had a daily increase of 1.47%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 30.63% [6] Other - The US dollar index had a daily increase of 0.19%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of -8.07%; the CBOE Volatility Index had a daily increase of 3.13%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 0.52% [6] Main Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of various commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3-month copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile adjustment, with major indices collectively declining, particularly the ChiNext index which fell over 2% [2][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13378.21, down 1.14% [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included pharmaceuticals (up 2.42%), media (up 2.39%), and retail (up 2.08%) [3] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (down 4.07%), electronics (down 3.06%), and non-bank financials (down 1.31%) [3] Concept Index Performance - Notable concept indices included recombinant proteins (up 3.72%), cell immunotherapy (up 3.58%), and AI corpus (up 3.42%) [3] - Underperforming concept indices included cultivated diamonds (down 2.96%) and storage chips (down 2.02%) [3] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the market is expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by policies aimed at promoting high-quality development in the capital market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [6] - It is suggested to focus on sectors such as banking, oil and petrochemicals, transportation, non-bank financials, and coal for potential investment opportunities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The transition from pre-sale to current housing sales is a necessary choice for the real estate industry, marking a shift from "high-speed growth" to "high-quality development" [10] Group 1: Policy Changes - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the need to reform and improve the real estate development, financing, and sales systems, advocating for a shift to current housing sales to fundamentally prevent delivery risks [1][2] - The new policy aims to create a dual system of "current housing as the mainstay, pre-sale as a supplement," enhancing fund supervision for pre-sale projects to ensure buyer rights [2][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The reliance on pre-sale systems has been a critical factor in the rapid development of urban housing, with pre-sale funds historically accounting for over 30% of developers' incoming funds [5] - As the market shifts from a seller's to a buyer's market, the drawbacks of the pre-sale system have become more apparent, leading to a demand for "delivery guarantees" from buyers [5][7] Group 3: Implementation Challenges - The transition to current housing sales faces challenges, particularly regarding the financial pressure on developers, as the absence of pre-sale funds may lead to operational crises for over 50% of developers [7][8] - Regional disparities complicate the implementation of the new policy, with stronger financial capabilities in first-tier cities compared to smaller cities, where many developers may struggle [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing policy push is expected to create a new ecosystem in the real estate sector, with stronger, more capable firms dominating the market while smaller firms may either niche down or face consolidation [9][10] - The market is anticipated to return to its "residential essence," with clearer commodity attributes for housing, leading to more rational buyer decisions and stable price fluctuations [9][10]