1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There are five reasons to be bullish on the glass main contract, including rigid cost support, double verification of technical support, rising policy expectations, clear signal of capital layout, and significant valuation advantages [3][4] - For stock index futures, the trend is good, with small - cycle adjustments sufficient. As long as the Shanghai Composite Index does not fall below the 3910 - 3920 support range, continue to buy on dips [6] - The overall trend of the three major A - share indexes is to rise first and then fall. Except for the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index perform well in the afternoon [7] - For the gold market, due to increased volatility in the entire precious metal market, it is advisable to participate with caution [10] - For iron ore, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply is further fermented. The demand side is weak, and it should be treated with a wide - range oscillation strategy, buying low and selling high [12][13] - For glass, the bottom has stabilized recently, and it is advisable to maintain a long - buying strategy [15] - For methanol, as of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 141.25 million tons, with an increase of 19.37 million tons from the previous period. The market in the sales area is strong under multiple positive factors [18] - For pulp, as of December 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports is 190.6 million tons, a decrease of 8.7 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%. The inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks, and it is judged to be in an oscillatory state [21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Reasons for Being Bullish on Glass Main Contract - Cost support: The entire industry is in a loss, leading to cold repair of production capacity. The daily average output has dropped to 154,500 tons, and the cost side provides strong support [3] - Technical support: The 1015 - 1025 point range has withstood multiple tests, becoming a short - term strong defense. The lower track of the weekly Bollinger Band is rising, narrowing the long - term downward space [3] - Policy expectations: The "guaranteeing the completion of pre - sold housing" policy supports long - term demand, and the optimization of real - estate regulation releases positive signals, with policy dividends expected to gradually reach the completion end [3] - Capital layout: The recent open interest has increased steadily, and long - position funds have actively intervened, injecting momentum into price rebound [4] - Valuation advantages: The contract price is at a low level since June, close to the cost line, with a prominent profit - loss ratio. Technical signals such as the enlargement of the MACD red column and the imminent golden cross of short - term moving averages indicate high cost - effectiveness for bottom - fishing [4] 3.2 Technical Analysis of Different Futures - Stock index futures: The trend is good, with small - cycle adjustments sufficient. As long as the Shanghai Composite Index does not fall below the 3910 - 3920 support range, continue to buy on dips [6] - Gold: The entire precious metal market has increased volatility, so it is advisable to participate with caution [10] - Iron ore: With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply is further fermented. The demand side is weak, and it should be treated with a wide - range oscillation strategy, buying low and selling high [12][13] - Glass: The bottom has stabilized recently, and it is advisable to maintain a long - buying strategy. The daily melting volume has continued to decline slightly, and inventory has accumulated this week. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance [15][16] - Methanol: As of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 141.25 million tons, with an increase of 19.37 million tons from the previous period. The market in the sales area is strong under multiple positive factors [18] - Pulp: As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports is 190.6 million tons, a decrease of 8.7 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%. The inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks, and it is judged to be in an oscillatory state [21]

Group 1: Core Insights - The article discusses the structure of excess savings, indicating that regions with lower savings rates and lower incomes are the primary contributors to excess savings [1][2][3] - It highlights that the increase in excess savings is not primarily due to typical precautionary savings behavior but rather a reduction in housing expenditures [3][28] - The article emphasizes that the release of excess savings in China is likely to flow into real estate rather than consumption, contrasting with trends observed in the US and EU [5][36] Group 2: Savings Structure - The analysis of savings by region shows that areas with lower savings rates, such as Henan and Sichuan, have seen significant increases in their savings rates [9][12] - Income levels correlate with savings rates, where lower-income regions tend to have higher savings rates, while high-income areas like Shanghai and Jiangsu exhibit lower savings rates [12][30] - The age structure of savers indicates that excess savings are not dominated by older populations, as both high and low aging rate regions show similar increases in savings rates [16][30] Group 3: Formation of Excess Savings - The article argues that the increase in excess savings is more influenced by the adjustment in the real estate market rather than a direct response to income declines or consumption reductions [21][28] - It notes that the reduction in housing expenditures has significantly contributed to the increase in excess savings, with annualized consumption from housing dropping from 8 trillion to 3.3 trillion [28][36] - The impact of social security and aging pressures on savings rates is deemed minimal, as both high and low dependency ratio regions exhibit excess savings [30] Group 4: Release Pathways of Excess Savings - The article posits that the stabilization of the real estate market is crucial for the release of excess savings, requiring policies that address both supply and demand sides [40][44] - It suggests that the "保交楼" (ensure delivery of buildings) policy could play a significant role in stabilizing the market and facilitating the release of excess savings [48] - The current environment shows a significant gap in funding for unsold properties, which could be addressed through targeted fiscal policies to stimulate investment and sales [48]

Group 1 - The glass futures market has seen a significant increase, with the main contract closing at 1100 yuan/ton, marking a three-month high, driven by strong market sentiment and increased capital inflow [1] - There is a cautious attitude among glass industry players, with many expressing reluctance to accept high prices, as evidenced by declining quotes from traders in Shihezi [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has implemented a capacity warning mechanism for key industrial products, including flat glass, indicating a focus on energy conservation and carbon reduction [1] Group 2 - In the building materials glass sector, some companies are opting for proactive cold repairs while waiting for further news, leading to a reduction in glass inventory [2] - The glass production lines have been affected, with four lines reported to be offline, resulting in a daily melting capacity loss of 2800 tons [2] - The cautious approach is also reflected in the downstream processing sector, where companies are only willing to take short-term orders due to tight cash flow in real estate projects [2] Group 3 - There is a prevailing atmosphere of caution in the market, with some investors betting on the effectiveness of policy implementation, while the actual demand remains uncertain [3] - The recent price recovery in the glass market has not translated into confidence among traders, who remain wary of the sustainability of the price increase without real order support [3] - The divergence in stock market performance is evident, with leading companies in the photovoltaic glass sector seeing stock price increases, while automotive and building materials glass companies experience volatility [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1, the supply side of float glass continued the production capacity contraction cycle dominated by cold repairs, with daily melting volume reaching a four - year low. However, the expectation of复产 and high inventory suppressed the futures price. The demand side was characterized by limited policy support, in - depth real estate adjustment, and low downstream orders. The inventory showed a structural feature, and the cost side had differentiated fuel trends, with coal - made dynamic cost becoming the marginal cost for futures pricing. - In Q2, the profit elasticity on the supply side and the inventory destocking rhythm will be key variables. For the demand side, focus on the verification results of "Golden March and Silver April" demand and the actual implementation effect of the "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" policy. If demand improves marginally and supply contracts actively, inventory destocking will drive price recovery; otherwise, the industry will continue the "weak supply and demand" pattern [3][50]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Demand Side: The Strength of the Peak Season is Uncertain, and Policy Effects are Crucial - Macro - level policies set a "stable growth" tone, but there is a time lag in policy transmission. Terminal demand recovery is weak, and new construction area has a long - term downward trend. The real estate supply - demand relationship changed in 2021, and glass demand is expected to trend down in the next 1 - 2 years. - In Q2, if real - estate completion improves marginally in April and "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" projects are concentrated for delivery, glass demand may pick up short - term. However, there are risks such as policy implementation falling short of expectations and high - temperature rainy seasons interfering with construction [8][9]. 3.2 Supply Side: Production Capacity Adjustment is Dominant, and Pay Attention to the Profit Inflection Point - The float glass industry is in the "break - even to slight loss" range. In Q1, the number of operating production lines decreased, and the daily melting volume remained unchanged year - on - year. In Q2, if natural - gas - made profit turns positive, enterprises may accelerate复产; if coal - made profit turns negative, cold - repair scale may expand [13]. 3.3 Inventory Side: The Intensity of Inventory Destocking Depends on Demand - In Q1, the inventory showed a structural feature, and futures prices were significantly affected by inventory fluctuations. As of March 21, inventory increased compared to the end of last year. In Q2, if demand improves, upstream inventory may continue to be destocked, supporting futures prices to rebound; otherwise, inventory will accumulate again, and prices may decline [22]. 3.4 Cost Side: Coal - Made Dynamic Cost Provides Marginal Support - Currently, coal - made cost is the lowest marginal cost line. The influence of the cost side on futures prices in Q2 depends on fuel price trends, supply - side changes, and downstream demand recovery. If the supply reduction caused by cost increase is greater than the demand decline, futures prices may rise; otherwise, prices will face downward pressure and fluctuate around the coal - made cost line [33]. 3.5 Valuation Side: The Weak Basis Background Limits the Rebound Space - In Q1, glass spot and futures prices fell together. The basis fluctuated around zero, especially in Hubei where it was mostly negative, providing no upward elasticity for the futures market. The current deep contango structure has a rising near - month price and a gentler slope, indicating an improvement in the spot market [39]. 3.6 Market Outlook: Inventory Dominates Short - Term Fluctuations, and a Rebound with a Bearish Bias is the Main Trend - In Q1, the supply side was in a capacity contraction cycle, the demand side was weak, the inventory had a structural feature, and the cost side had differentiated fuel trends. In Q2, focus on supply - side profit and inventory destocking. - Strategically, consider a rebound around the coal - made dynamic cost line and a bearish view near the half - year and annual lines. Pay attention to support at 1000 - 1100 and resistance at 1400 - 1500. Mid - and upstream enterprises can conduct sell - hedging when the futures price is 10% - 20% higher than Hubei's spot price, and mid - and downstream enterprises can conduct buy - hedging when the futures price is below coal - made cost or significantly lower than the spot price. - In terms of rhythm, inventory dominates short - term fluctuations. From April to May, if inventory destocking exceeds expectations, futures prices may rise; in June, if inventory accumulates again, prices may decline to the 1100 yuan/ton cost line [50][51].