摘要 超额储蓄的结构"画像"？储蓄率更低、收入更低的居民在超额储蓄 观察居民超额储蓄不能直接观察银行存款，而要观察包括银行理财、股市投资等在内的全口径储蓄。 市 场对于超额储蓄的研究，多是基于居民银行存款的视角，后者2021年以来增加了56万亿。但银行存款变 化受到表外资金回表的影响，譬如居民赎回理财和股市投资，会直接推升存款读数。私人银行等财富管 理的微观结构数据，也无法解释储蓄宏观结构的变化。因此我们构建居民全口径储蓄指标， 后者近四年 增加52万亿，比历史趋势超额增加了11.1万亿。 我们也从分省份数据出发，更准确讨论超额储蓄的结构 情况。 储蓄者"主体结构"：超额储蓄的主体更多是储蓄率更低的地区。 譬如河南（+16.9pct至21.9%）、四川 （+22.6pct至14%）、福建（+21.8pct至17.6%）等低储蓄率地区储蓄率大幅上升，而北京（29%）等高储 蓄率地区，储蓄率上升幅度仅6pct。 储蓄者"收入结构"：超额储蓄的主体更多是收入更低的地区。 静态看， 储蓄率、储蓄金额较高的地区， 都是收入相对较低的地区，譬如陕西、山西、辽宁等地。高收入地区中北京储蓄率较高（28.9%），但上 海（16 ...

Group 1 - The glass futures market has seen a significant increase, with the main contract closing at 1100 yuan/ton, marking a three-month high, driven by strong market sentiment and increased capital inflow [1] - There is a cautious attitude among glass industry players, with many expressing reluctance to accept high prices, as evidenced by declining quotes from traders in Shihezi [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has implemented a capacity warning mechanism for key industrial products, including flat glass, indicating a focus on energy conservation and carbon reduction [1] Group 2 - In the building materials glass sector, some companies are opting for proactive cold repairs while waiting for further news, leading to a reduction in glass inventory [2] - The glass production lines have been affected, with four lines reported to be offline, resulting in a daily melting capacity loss of 2800 tons [2] - The cautious approach is also reflected in the downstream processing sector, where companies are only willing to take short-term orders due to tight cash flow in real estate projects [2] Group 3 - There is a prevailing atmosphere of caution in the market, with some investors betting on the effectiveness of policy implementation, while the actual demand remains uncertain [3] - The recent price recovery in the glass market has not translated into confidence among traders, who remain wary of the sustainability of the price increase without real order support [3] - The divergence in stock market performance is evident, with leading companies in the photovoltaic glass sector seeing stock price increases, while automotive and building materials glass companies experience volatility [2]

让衍生品 成为新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 证监许可【2015】 75 号 中辉期货研究院所 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2015】 75 号 何慧 投资咨询证号： Z0011420 2025 二季度报告 玻璃 玻璃：旺季成色待定，反弹偏空为主 | 玻璃二季度行情分析 3 | | | --- | --- | | 1 需求端：旺季成色待定，政策效应关键 | 3 | | 2 供给端：产能调节主导，关注利润拐点 | 4 | | 3 库存端：库存去化力度，在于需求成色 | 5 | | 4 成本端：煤制动态成本，提供边际支撑 | 7 | | 5 估值端：弱基差背景下，限制反弹空间 | 8 | | 6 行情展望：库存主导波动，反弹偏空为主 10 | | 中辉期货研究院所 交易咨询业务资格： 玻璃：回顾一季度，浮法玻璃供应端延续冷修主导的产能收缩周期，日熔量 降至近四年低位，但复产预期与高库存压制期货价格。需求端呈现"政策托底有 限、地产深度调整、下游订单低迷"的特征，期货价格受弱现实压制持续走弱。 库存端呈现"上游累库后去化、中游高库存倒逼、下游低库存博弈"的结 ...