Group 1 - The glass futures market has seen a significant increase, with the main contract closing at 1100 yuan/ton, marking a three-month high, driven by strong market sentiment and increased capital inflow [1] - There is a cautious attitude among glass industry players, with many expressing reluctance to accept high prices, as evidenced by declining quotes from traders in Shihezi [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has implemented a capacity warning mechanism for key industrial products, including flat glass, indicating a focus on energy conservation and carbon reduction [1] Group 2 - In the building materials glass sector, some companies are opting for proactive cold repairs while waiting for further news, leading to a reduction in glass inventory [2] - The glass production lines have been affected, with four lines reported to be offline, resulting in a daily melting capacity loss of 2800 tons [2] - The cautious approach is also reflected in the downstream processing sector, where companies are only willing to take short-term orders due to tight cash flow in real estate projects [2] Group 3 - There is a prevailing atmosphere of caution in the market, with some investors betting on the effectiveness of policy implementation, while the actual demand remains uncertain [3] - The recent price recovery in the glass market has not translated into confidence among traders, who remain wary of the sustainability of the price increase without real order support [3] - The divergence in stock market performance is evident, with leading companies in the photovoltaic glass sector seeing stock price increases, while automotive and building materials glass companies experience volatility [2]

让衍生品 成为新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 证监许可【2015】 75 号 中辉期货研究院所 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2015】 75 号 何慧 投资咨询证号： Z0011420 2025 二季度报告 玻璃 玻璃：旺季成色待定，反弹偏空为主 | 玻璃二季度行情分析 3 | | | --- | --- | | 1 需求端：旺季成色待定，政策效应关键 | 3 | | 2 供给端：产能调节主导，关注利润拐点 | 4 | | 3 库存端：库存去化力度，在于需求成色 | 5 | | 4 成本端：煤制动态成本，提供边际支撑 | 7 | | 5 估值端：弱基差背景下，限制反弹空间 | 8 | | 6 行情展望：库存主导波动，反弹偏空为主 10 | | 中辉期货研究院所 交易咨询业务资格： 玻璃：回顾一季度，浮法玻璃供应端延续冷修主导的产能收缩周期，日熔量 降至近四年低位，但复产预期与高库存压制期货价格。需求端呈现"政策托底有 限、地产深度调整、下游订单低迷"的特征，期货价格受弱现实压制持续走弱。 库存端呈现"上游累库后去化、中游高库存倒逼、下游低库存博弈"的结 ...