21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 见习记者冉黎黎 北京报道2025年上半年，磷酸铁锂行业似乎迎来回暖。头 部前五企业产能基本满产，TOP5—10企业产能利用率达到80%，预计2025年中国磷酸铁锂材料产量将 攀升至370万吨，头部企业订单已排到2026年，部分电池企业出现一吨难求的局面。 刘家成表示，明年，新能源汽车的单车带电量会持续提升，EV（电动汽车）的占比、商用汽车的占比 也持续提升，"需求端是不错的，以2025年中国磷酸铁锂材料产量将攀升至370万吨来推测，明年可能达 到510万吨至530吨"。 整体来看，据汤雁介绍，当全球能源转型进入深水区，锂电产业正迎来储能与新能源汽车双轮驱动的黄 金发展期。根据协会最新统计，2025年1—9月我国锂离子电池出口额达553.8亿美元，同比增长 26.75%，出口数量33.99亿个，同比增长19.14%，持续保持稳健增长态势。国内市场同样势头强劲，新 能源汽车渗透率突破45%，储能装机量同比激增60%，双重需求驱动下，全行业产值今年有望向3万亿 元大关迈进。其中，磷酸铁锂材料无疑是核心支柱——以近74%的正极材料出货占比支撑全产业链运 转，在储能电池领域更以99.9%的绝 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that in the first nine months of this year, new domestic energy storage project tenders reached 255.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 97.7%. It is expected that total lithium battery demand will exceed 2700 GWh next year, with a growth rate of over 30%, and energy storage battery demand surpassing 900 GWh, potentially leading to shortages in various segments of lithium [1] Group 1 - The industry is currently facing high capacity utilization rates among leading lithium battery companies, resulting in full order books and a situation where battery cells are in high demand. This has highlighted structural issues of "low-end surplus and high-end shortage" due to intense competition [1] - The industry needs to shift from a reliance on scale expansion and price competition to a new development model focused on technological breakthroughs and quality upgrades, thereby returning to value competition and reconstructing core competitiveness [1] Group 2 - Industry chain collaboration is essential to smooth out cyclical fluctuations, and stakeholders should work together to build a recycling system. Data from the State Administration for Market Regulation indicates that by 2024, domestic power battery recycling volume will exceed 300,000 tons, corresponding to a market size of over 48 billion yuan, with expectations to surpass 100 billion yuan by 2030 [1][2] - Leading companies have already achieved significant economic, social, and ecological benefits in energy recovery. For instance, CATL has achieved a nickel-cobalt-manganese recovery rate of 99.6% and a lithium recovery rate of 96.5%. The industry needs to create a closed-loop ecosystem from "mineral extraction—production—recycling" to stabilize the supply chain and reduce capacity cycle fluctuations [2] Group 3 - Establishing a capacity warning mechanism is crucial for transitioning the industry from "scale incentives" to "quality control." The recently released "Special Action Plan for Large-Scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025-2027)" specifies that by 2027, the new energy storage installed capacity nationwide should exceed 180 million kilowatts [3] - Companies should develop a scientific capacity warning mechanism based on key indicators such as capacity utilization rates, product price fluctuations, and corporate profitability to support production planning and promote long-term development through data-driven decision-making [3] Group 4 - Global layout provides space to navigate capacity cycles. In response to differentiated international market demands, local production has become a common choice for leading companies. In global expansion, companies should match regional demands and conditions precisely, such as focusing on high-end power battery supply in Europe and establishing production capacity and resource recovery bases in Southeast Asia [4] - Through industry chain collaboration, mechanism optimization, and global layout initiatives, the industry is expected to resolve structural supply-demand imbalances and move towards a new stage of high-quality development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims for an average annual growth of over 5% in the industry's added value, addressing challenges such as intensified competition, insufficient supply of high-end fine chemicals, and slowing domestic demand [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Focus and Structural Changes - The plan signals a shift towards precise regulation, emphasizing quality and efficiency over mere scale expansion, with a focus on developing high-end products like electronic chemicals and high-performance materials [1][2]. - It aims to stabilize the industry by controlling the disorderly expansion of capacities in refining and ethylene, establishing a capacity warning mechanism to prevent excess supply and price wars [2][3]. - The plan encourages investment in technology upgrades and safety improvements, particularly in emerging fields like new energy [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The plan is expected to create new growth points by supporting sectors closely related to strategic emerging industries, thus shifting growth drivers from traditional markets to those with higher certainty and added value [2][3]. - The impact on the futures market for chemical products will be differentiated, with trading logic evolving from simple supply-demand dynamics to a deeper integration of policy and industry [3][4]. - Long-term, the plan is anticipated to improve industry profitability by controlling total capacity and optimizing capacity structure, moving towards high-quality development [3][6]. Group 3: Price and Supply Implications - The plan's restrictions on capacity expansion for products like ethylene and paraxylene are expected to reduce supply pressure in the long run, potentially raising future contract valuations [4][5]. - The elimination of outdated capacities and increased compliance costs for remaining firms may lead to a temporary contraction in effective supply, reshaping market pricing dynamics [5][6]. - The plan's clear supply guarantee policies are likely to stabilize price fluctuations for fertilizers, balancing seasonal supply-demand imbalances [5][6].

Group 1 - The glass futures market has seen a significant increase, with the main contract closing at 1100 yuan/ton, marking a three-month high, driven by strong market sentiment and increased capital inflow [1] - There is a cautious attitude among glass industry players, with many expressing reluctance to accept high prices, as evidenced by declining quotes from traders in Shihezi [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has implemented a capacity warning mechanism for key industrial products, including flat glass, indicating a focus on energy conservation and carbon reduction [1] Group 2 - In the building materials glass sector, some companies are opting for proactive cold repairs while waiting for further news, leading to a reduction in glass inventory [2] - The glass production lines have been affected, with four lines reported to be offline, resulting in a daily melting capacity loss of 2800 tons [2] - The cautious approach is also reflected in the downstream processing sector, where companies are only willing to take short-term orders due to tight cash flow in real estate projects [2] Group 3 - There is a prevailing atmosphere of caution in the market, with some investors betting on the effectiveness of policy implementation, while the actual demand remains uncertain [3] - The recent price recovery in the glass market has not translated into confidence among traders, who remain wary of the sustainability of the price increase without real order support [3] - The divergence in stock market performance is evident, with leading companies in the photovoltaic glass sector seeing stock price increases, while automotive and building materials glass companies experience volatility [2]