Q&A 请介绍一下山煤国际 2025 年前三季度的经营情况，包括产销量和价格等方面 的数据。 2025 年前三季度，山煤国际原煤产量超过 2,600 万吨，自产煤销量接近 2000 万吨。贸易煤方面，约有 1,000 万吨，其中 500 多万吨为进口煤。为了 完成全年 3,500 万吨的原煤产量目标，公司每月保持接近 300 万吨的生产进度， 预计年底能完成任务，总销量达到 2,600-2,700 万吨。 山煤国际在 2026 年的保供任务和长协签订情况如何？ 2026 年，山煤国际的保供任务量为 1,900 万吨，预计在 12 月底完成所有合 同签订。自保供政策实施以来，公司动力资源全部用于保供。从 2023 年的 2,100 万吨任务到 2024 年的 2000 万吨，再到 2025 年实际履约 1,700- 1,800 万吨。价格方面，自 5 月份调整后，基本采用基准价加浮动模式运行。 四季度以来公司在量价方面有哪些变化？ 山煤国际 20151223 摘要 山煤国际预计 2025 年原煤产量达 3,500 万吨，销量 2,600-2,700 万 吨，进口煤超 500 万吨。公司正努力消化库存，计划年底降 ...

Summary of Shanxi Coal International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shanxi Coal International - **Industry**: Coal Production Key Points Production and Sales Forecast - Shanxi Coal International expects coal production to remain between 35-36 million tons in 2025, aligning with production capacity [2][3] - Sales target for 2025 is set at 26-27 million tons, with metallurgical coal sold based on market conditions and thermal coal primarily for supply assurance [2][3] Regulatory Environment - The impact of Shanxi Province's safety and environmental policies on production is expected to diminish starting January 2025, with regulatory intensity anticipated to remain similar to 2024 [2][5] Cost Control - Cost control has been effective, with costs dropping to 230 RMB/ton in Q3 2025, and an expected average cost below 300 RMB/ton for the year, down from 308 RMB/ton in 2024 [2][7] - The company attributes cost reductions to stable sales, passive cost reductions due to declining performance, and strict expense management [7] Price Expectations - Thermal coal prices are projected to fluctuate between 700-800 RMB/ton from December to Q1 2026, with limited demand growth and supply-side reforms influencing this stability [2][8] - For 2026, thermal coal prices are expected to range from 700-900 RMB/ton, with a central tendency around 750-800 RMB/ton [4][12] Inventory Management - Coal inventory was high at over 3 million tons in Q1 2025 but has decreased significantly by Q3, with expectations of returning to a reasonable level of around 300,000 tons by December [10] Import Policies - The company anticipates that if domestic demand weakens, there may be tighter controls on coal imports, which have been increasing but are expected to stabilize [11] Resource Development - Shanxi Coal International is actively monitoring resource release opportunities in Shanxi Province, with plans to pursue new mining rights as they become available [13] Market Dynamics - The company notes that the demand for thermal coal is stable, and the supply-side adjustments over the past two years have limited growth in new production capacity, reducing the likelihood of significant price fluctuations [12] Conclusion - Overall, Shanxi Coal International is positioned to maintain stable production and sales in the coming years, with effective cost management and a favorable regulatory environment contributing to its outlook. The company is also strategically focused on resource acquisition to support future growth.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Recently, the high-level customs clearance of Mongolian coal and the domestic coal supply guarantee policy have impacted market sentiment. Additionally, the weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month contracts, and the futures price is trading at a discount to the spot price. The market may remain weak in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price continued its weak trend and further declined during the night session. The position of the 01 contract is gradually shifting to the 05 contract. The weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month price, and the futures price is trading at a discount to the spot price. The spot market is generally weak, with coal prices in some regions experiencing corrections. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices have temporarily stabilized [3]. Import Data - In October, China imported 10.5932 million tons of coking coal, a month-on-month decrease of 3.03% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, remaining at a relatively high level. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 94.1244 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1231 million tons, or a decline of 5.16% [3]. - In terms of different countries, in October, Mongolia exported 5.3653 million tons of coking coal to China, a decrease of 635,200 tons from September, mainly due to the port closure during the National Day holiday. In November, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has recovered to a relatively high level, and there are recent market rumors that the port will test a daily customs clearance of 2,000 trucks, so the actual customs clearance volume needs to be monitored [3]. - In October, the import volume of Australian coking coal was 1.0469 million tons, with a significant month-on-month increase. The import volumes of Russian and Canadian coking coal in October both decreased slightly compared to September [3]. Domestic Production and Demand - The domestic clean coal production is generally stable. On the demand side, the profit of steel mills continues to shrink. Last week, the average daily pig iron output decreased to 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 4,800 tons compared to the same period last year. During the off - season demand period, pig iron output tends to decline, and the demand for raw materials is under pressure [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The impact of the supply - guarantee policy on market sentiment is gradually reflected in the futures market, while the actual supply - demand change is limited. There is seasonal pressure on future demand. The price of the main coking coal contract is approaching the lower limit of the trading range (1100 - 1300), testing the support level below [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market Performance**: Last week, the coking coal and coke futures prices continued to decline in a volatile manner, with coking coal leading the decline. The position of the 01 contract was gradually transferred to the 05 contract. The futures price was at a discount to the spot price, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the near - month price. The spot market was generally weak and stable, with coal prices in some regions adjusting downwards. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices remained stable [3]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: In terms of supply, many coal mines in Shanxi Lvliang returned to full production, and coal mines in Shaanxi Yan'an Zichang resumed production, increasing the overall output. The daily average output of clean coal last week was 75.8 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 3.8 million tons year - on - year. On the import side, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased slightly but remained at a high level. There were rumors of a trial of 2000 - vehicle customs clearance. In terms of demand, steel mill profits continued to shrink, with the profitability rate falling below 40%. The daily average pig iron output decreased to 236.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared with the previous week but an increase of 0.48 million tons year - on - year. During the off - season, pig iron output tends to decline, putting pressure on raw material demand [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The impact of the coal supply guarantee policy on market sentiment is gradually reflected in the futures market, with limited actual changes in supply and demand. There is seasonal pressure on demand in the later period. The price of the main coking coal contract is approaching the lower limit of the trading range (1100 - 1300), testing the support level below [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the coal and coke futures prices fluctuated weakly, leading the decline in the ferrous metal sector. The futures prices were at a discount to the spot prices, and the weak delivery logic dragged down the prices of near - term contracts. The spot market was generally weak and stable, with the price of main coking coal in the main producing areas falling by 40 - 50 yuan/ton [3] Supply Side - This week, several coal mines in Lvliang, Shanxi, have resumed full - scale production, and the raw coal output has increased significantly. In Zichang, Yan'an, Shaanxi, local transportation has recovered, and the coal mines involved have resumed production, boosting the overall output. The daily average output of clean coal this week was 75.8 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 3.8 million tons year - on - year. In the import aspect, from November 10th to 15th, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 17.45 million tons, a decrease of 2.07 million tons from the previous week, but still at a relatively high level, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3] Demand Side - The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, with the profitability rate dropping below 40%. The daily average pig iron output this week dropped to 236.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.48 million tons compared with the same period last year. During the off - season demand period, the pig iron output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the profitability of steel mills and changes in their production rhythm in the later period [3]