姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 焦煤：2 月 03 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1167.5 点，日内下跌 0.17%。截至 收盘，主力合约持仓量为 43.44 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+2532 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1190.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 4.0%。整体来看，焦煤基本面无明显变化，相对利好或有三方面：其一是 下游冬储仍在进行，对焦煤现货带来一定支撑；其二是春节临近，煤矿或 有提前停产放假的预期；其三是中东局势紧张，原油地缘溢价带动能源类 商品走强。不过，缺乏国内政策面和焦煤基本面支撑，焦煤期货依然缺乏 持续上涨的动能 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The central bank's positive statements at the meeting have boosted market sentiment. After the start of the new year, the production of coal, coke, and steel enterprises has recovered. The pre - holiday replenishment of raw materials by downstream enterprises supports the upstream's confidence in price - holding. The short - term futures price fluctuates sharply, and cautious operation is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price fluctuated strongly, with a daily increase of over 3%. However, the price dropped at night, basically erasing the daily gain. On the spot side, coal prices in many places have rebounded from the low level recently. The quotation of Mongolian No. 5 coal at the port has increased by 113 yuan/ton. Some coking plants in Inner Mongolia have started to raise the coke price, with the dry - quenched coke price increased by 55 yuan/ton, and the increase is planned to be implemented on January 15th. The coal - coke market has been strong recently due to the warming market sentiment and the downstream's seasonal replenishment [3] Fundamental Situation - After the start of the new year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. Last week, the production of coking raw coal and clean coal rebounded to 189.9 million tons and 73.4 million tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end has increased, while the clean coal inventory has decreased. This is mainly because downstream coking and steel enterprises have also resumed production and maintained a certain procurement rhythm for raw materials [3] - At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 16.46 million tons, 3.74 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the port inventory remained relatively high [3] - On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel mills has expanded in the past two weeks, and the daily average pig iron output of blast furnaces has stopped falling and rebounded. In the week of January 9th, it was 229.5 million tons, an increase of 2.07 million tons compared with the previous week and 5.13 million tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected to show a steady and small - scale recovery in the short term. Later, the raw material replenishment rhythm of steel mills is expected to accelerate, which will support the upstream's confidence in price - holding [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 10, the coke main contract closed at 1,527 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.36%. The position of the main contract was 26,038 lots, a decrease of 1,960 lots from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port remained unchanged week-on-week. The supply pressure of coking coal drags down the weak operation of coke futures, but considering the potential macro - positive from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of coke's decline needs further observation. The main negative risk lies in the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [5][35]. - On December 10, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,070 points, with an intraday decline of 1.29%. The position of the main contract was 507,274 lots, an increase of 12,553 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,170 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5%. The accelerated release of Mongolian coal imports has brought supply - side pressure, leading to the weak operation of coking coal. However, considering the expected macro - positive from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of this round of decline in coking coal futures needs further observation. Attention can be paid to the actual production situation of coal mines [5][35]. Summary by Directory Industry News - From January to November, national railway fixed - asset investment reached 753.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, which effectively promoted social investment and supported high - quality economic and social development [7]. - On December 10, the auction prices of coking coal in the Lvliang market decreased. Among the 6 reported transactions, the total listed volume was 83,000 tons, with 58,000 tons sold and a non - sale rate of about 30% (up from 18% last week). The average transaction price of high - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 1,221 yuan/ton, while the average transaction prices of low - sulfur main coking coal were 1,404 yuan/ton and 1,443 yuan/ton respectively. In the short term, prices are weakly stable [8]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (flat price) | 1,620 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 2.99% | - 4.14% | - 6.90% | | Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (out - of - warehouse price) | 1,450 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 13.17% | | Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port | 1,170 yuan/ton | - 2.50% | - 8.59% | - 0.85% | - 5.65% | | Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port | 1,490 yuan/ton | - 4.49% | - 5.10% | 0.00% | - 5.10% | | Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port | 1,650 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.51% | 7.84% | - 2.37% | [9] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,527 yuan/ton | + 0.36% | 1,562 yuan/ton | 1,513.5 yuan/ton | 21,233 lots | 6,900 lots | 26,038 lots | - 1,960 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,070 points | - 1.29% | 1,095.5 points | 1,067 points | 903,929 lots | 117,173 lots | 507,274 lots | 12,553 lots | [12] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory of coke (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port total inventory, and total inventory), coking coal (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking plant inventory), as well as other relevant data such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [13][21][28] Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the impact of coking coal supply pressure on the weak operation of both, while also considering the potential positive factors from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year. The sustainability of the decline in both needs further observation [5][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recently, the high-level clearance of Mongolian coal and domestic coal supply guarantee policies have impacted market sentiment. The weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month contracts, and the futures prices are trading at a discount to the spot prices. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [3][4] Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices first declined and then rebounded, but weakened again during the night session. The positions of the 01 contract are gradually shifting to the 05 contract. The weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month prices, and the futures prices are trading at a discount to the spot prices. The spot market is generally weak, with coal prices in some regions回调, and coke prices remaining stable after four rounds of price increases [3] Fundamental Situation - Mysteel research shows that the shutdown of multiple coal mines in Linfen and Lüliang, Shanxi this week has led to a decline in coal production. Most of the shutdowns are for a long time, and there is little room for a significant increase in coal production in the short term. In December, some coal mines may reduce production due to the completion of annual production tasks, safety concerns, and weak downstream demand [3] Import Data - In October, China imported 10.5932 million tons of coking coal, a month-on-month decrease of 3.03% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%. From January to October, the cumulative imports were 94.1244 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1231 million tons or 5.16%. In October, Mongolia exported 5.3653 million tons of coking coal to China, a decrease of 635,200 tons from September. In November, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded to a relatively high level. In October, Australia exported 1.0469 million tons of coking coal to China, with a significant month-on-month increase. The imports of Russian and Canadian coking coal decreased slightly in October compared to September [4] Later Concerns - Monitor the changes in steel mill blast furnace start-up rates and coal mine复产 situations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Recently, the high-level customs clearance of Mongolian coal and the domestic coal supply guarantee policy have impacted market sentiment. Additionally, the weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month contracts, and the futures price is trading at a discount to the spot price. The market may remain weak in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price continued its weak trend and further declined during the night session. The position of the 01 contract is gradually shifting to the 05 contract. The weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month price, and the futures price is trading at a discount to the spot price. The spot market is generally weak, with coal prices in some regions experiencing corrections. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices have temporarily stabilized [3]. Import Data - In October, China imported 10.5932 million tons of coking coal, a month-on-month decrease of 3.03% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, remaining at a relatively high level. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 94.1244 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1231 million tons, or a decline of 5.16% [3]. - In terms of different countries, in October, Mongolia exported 5.3653 million tons of coking coal to China, a decrease of 635,200 tons from September, mainly due to the port closure during the National Day holiday. In November, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has recovered to a relatively high level, and there are recent market rumors that the port will test a daily customs clearance of 2,000 trucks, so the actual customs clearance volume needs to be monitored [3]. - In October, the import volume of Australian coking coal was 1.0469 million tons, with a significant month-on-month increase. The import volumes of Russian and Canadian coking coal in October both decreased slightly compared to September [3]. Domestic Production and Demand - The domestic clean coal production is generally stable. On the demand side, the profit of steel mills continues to shrink. Last week, the average daily pig iron output decreased to 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 4,800 tons compared to the same period last year. During the off - season demand period, pig iron output tends to decline, and the demand for raw materials is under pressure [3].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Short-term domestic coal mine production has a slight recovery, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has significantly rebounded; demand fluctuates slightly, and attention should be paid to the transmission of off-season pressure to the raw material end. Coking coal prices are still operating within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke market made up for the decline, and the futures prices fluctuated downward. The spot market remained stable and slightly strong, and steel mills in some regions accepted the fourth round of coking price increases [2] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, coal mine production in many places in Shanxi recovered, and there is still an expectation of increased production in the short term. The daily average output of clean coal was 75.7 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.9 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3 tons. From November 10th to 15th, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 17.45 tons, a decrease of 2.07 tons compared with the previous week, but still at a relatively high level, and the port supervision area showed a trend of increased inventory [2] - **Demand Side**: The profits of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. The phased production restriction policy in the Tangshan area was lifted recently, which promoted the recovery of molten iron production. The daily average molten iron production last week rebounded to 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons compared with the previous week [2]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke remain at a relatively high level. The peak demand season and the downstream's inventory replenishment space support the price - holding confidence in the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3][4] Group 2: Industry Analysis Coke Market - During the National Day holiday, the coking coal and coke market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. Driven by downstream inventory replenishment, coke completed the first round of price increase at the beginning of the month. The price of tamping dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, and that of tamping wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton [3] - After the first - round price increase of coke, coke enterprises' profits improved. Most coke enterprises maintained a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of about 75%. Although the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected during the holiday and logistics was relatively slow, coke shipments were in an orderly manner [3] - Steel mills'开工 remained at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintaining at about 2.42 million tons, which supported the demand for raw materials [3] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market was generally stable, with individual mine prices experiencing high - level corrections. The current inventory pressure at the coal mine end was not obvious, which supported the relatively firm price [4] - Regarding imported coal, the fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal at the pithead increased from 53.54 - 54.35 US dollars to 57.3 - 58.15 US dollars, an increase of about 7%, with the equivalent warehouse price of about 770 - 800 yuan/ton. It was rumored that after the National Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance would increase the transportation capacity through automated loading and unloading, increasing the daily customs clearance volume from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000, with a one - month trial operation after the National Day, which needed continuous tracking [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - After major macro - events are finalized, market uncertainty decreases, and the market will return to the industrial logic [4] - For coking coal, the long - term agreement price of major mines in Shanxi has increased, the spot price is firm, the mine's inventory is transferred to downstream, and the spot trading volume is high. The coking coal market is expected to remain strong, but its upward space depends on whether other black - sector varieties can catch up. In the short - term, it is recommended to hold and add positions to J01/JM01 contracts [4][5] - For coke, the fifth round of spot price increase has been implemented, with limited room for further increase. The demand for coke remains resilient due to high production enthusiasm of steel mills. Coke enterprises are reducing inventory, and the inventory in ports is increasing [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rates of 523 mines and 110 coal - washing plants have decreased, and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises has also slightly declined [2] Inventory - Upstream mines and coal - washing plants are reducing inventory, while downstream steel mills and coking enterprises are increasing inventory. Port inventory has decreased [2] Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is stable at 1150 yuan/ton. The active contract price is 1221 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan. The basis is - 51 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 147 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan [2] Coke Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises has slightly decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills and the daily average pig - iron output have also declined. Supply and demand are flat month - on - month, but there is still a gap [3] Inventory - Coking enterprises are reducing inventory, steel mills' inventory has decreased, and port inventory has increased [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Tianjin Port is 1470 yuan/ton after the fifth round of price increase. The active contract price is 1644.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis is - 64 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 88 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan [3]