煤焦：焦价提涨陆续落地 盘面震荡运行 晨报 煤焦 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从基本面来看，上周山西多地煤矿产量恢复，短期煤矿仍有增产预期， 而下游采购节奏放缓，采购积极性下滑，虽然多数煤矿库存压力不大，但 煤矿原煤库存止降回升，后期煤价上涨将稍显乏力。精煤日均产量 75.7 万吨，环比前一周增加 1.9 万吨，同比下降 3.3 万吨。进口端，上周 （11.10-11.15）甘其毛都口岸蒙煤日均通关量 17.45 万吨，较前一周下 降 2.07 万吨，总体仍保持相对高位，口岸监管区呈现增库趋势。需求端， 钢厂利润延续收缩趋势，盈利率降至 40%以下，近期唐山地区阶段性限产 政策解除，促使铁水产量回升，上周日均铁水产量回升至 236.88 万吨，较 前一周增加 2.66 万吨，后期关注钢厂盈利情况及钢厂生产节奏变化。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：短期国内煤矿产量小幅修复，蒙煤通关量回升显著；需求小幅 波动，注意淡 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke remain at a relatively high level. The peak demand season and the downstream's inventory replenishment space support the price - holding confidence in the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3][4] Group 2: Industry Analysis Coke Market - During the National Day holiday, the coking coal and coke market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. Driven by downstream inventory replenishment, coke completed the first round of price increase at the beginning of the month. The price of tamping dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, and that of tamping wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton [3] - After the first - round price increase of coke, coke enterprises' profits improved. Most coke enterprises maintained a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of about 75%. Although the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected during the holiday and logistics was relatively slow, coke shipments were in an orderly manner [3] - Steel mills'开工 remained at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintaining at about 2.42 million tons, which supported the demand for raw materials [3] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market was generally stable, with individual mine prices experiencing high - level corrections. The current inventory pressure at the coal mine end was not obvious, which supported the relatively firm price [4] - Regarding imported coal, the fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal at the pithead increased from 53.54 - 54.35 US dollars to 57.3 - 58.15 US dollars, an increase of about 7%, with the equivalent warehouse price of about 770 - 800 yuan/ton. It was rumored that after the National Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance would increase the transportation capacity through automated loading and unloading, increasing the daily customs clearance volume from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000, with a one - month trial operation after the National Day, which needed continuous tracking [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - After major macro - events are finalized, market uncertainty decreases, and the market will return to the industrial logic [4] - For coking coal, the long - term agreement price of major mines in Shanxi has increased, the spot price is firm, the mine's inventory is transferred to downstream, and the spot trading volume is high. The coking coal market is expected to remain strong, but its upward space depends on whether other black - sector varieties can catch up. In the short - term, it is recommended to hold and add positions to J01/JM01 contracts [4][5] - For coke, the fifth round of spot price increase has been implemented, with limited room for further increase. The demand for coke remains resilient due to high production enthusiasm of steel mills. Coke enterprises are reducing inventory, and the inventory in ports is increasing [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rates of 523 mines and 110 coal - washing plants have decreased, and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises has also slightly declined [2] Inventory - Upstream mines and coal - washing plants are reducing inventory, while downstream steel mills and coking enterprises are increasing inventory. Port inventory has decreased [2] Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is stable at 1150 yuan/ton. The active contract price is 1221 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan. The basis is - 51 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 147 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan [2] Coke Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises has slightly decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills and the daily average pig - iron output have also declined. Supply and demand are flat month - on - month, but there is still a gap [3] Inventory - Coking enterprises are reducing inventory, steel mills' inventory has decreased, and port inventory has increased [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Tianjin Port is 1470 yuan/ton after the fifth round of price increase. The active contract price is 1644.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis is - 64 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 88 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan [3]