投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 偏空情绪主导，煤焦弱势运行 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 10 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1527 元/吨，日内录得 0.36%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.60 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 1960 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1620 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1450 元/吨，周 环比持平。现阶段，焦煤供应压力拖累焦炭期货弱势运行，不过考虑到 12 月政治局经济会议或释放宏观利好，以及年末煤矿存减产预期，焦炭下跌 持续性有待观察，主要利空风险在于焦煤供应的超预期宽松。 焦煤：12 月 10 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1070 点，日内下跌 1.29%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.73 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+12553 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1170.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 2.5%。近期，蒙煤进口量加速释放，供应端压力带动焦煤弱势运行，但考 虑到 12 月迎来政治 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recently, the high-level clearance of Mongolian coal and domestic coal supply guarantee policies have impacted market sentiment. The weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month contracts, and the futures prices are trading at a discount to the spot prices. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [3][4] Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices first declined and then rebounded, but weakened again during the night session. The positions of the 01 contract are gradually shifting to the 05 contract. The weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month prices, and the futures prices are trading at a discount to the spot prices. The spot market is generally weak, with coal prices in some regions回调, and coke prices remaining stable after four rounds of price increases [3] Fundamental Situation - Mysteel research shows that the shutdown of multiple coal mines in Linfen and Lüliang, Shanxi this week has led to a decline in coal production. Most of the shutdowns are for a long time, and there is little room for a significant increase in coal production in the short term. In December, some coal mines may reduce production due to the completion of annual production tasks, safety concerns, and weak downstream demand [3] Import Data - In October, China imported 10.5932 million tons of coking coal, a month-on-month decrease of 3.03% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%. From January to October, the cumulative imports were 94.1244 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1231 million tons or 5.16%. In October, Mongolia exported 5.3653 million tons of coking coal to China, a decrease of 635,200 tons from September. In November, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded to a relatively high level. In October, Australia exported 1.0469 million tons of coking coal to China, with a significant month-on-month increase. The imports of Russian and Canadian coking coal decreased slightly in October compared to September [4] Later Concerns - Monitor the changes in steel mill blast furnace start-up rates and coal mine复产 situations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Recently, the high-level customs clearance of Mongolian coal and the domestic coal supply guarantee policy have impacted market sentiment. Additionally, the weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month contracts, and the futures price is trading at a discount to the spot price. The market may remain weak in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price continued its weak trend and further declined during the night session. The position of the 01 contract is gradually shifting to the 05 contract. The weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month price, and the futures price is trading at a discount to the spot price. The spot market is generally weak, with coal prices in some regions experiencing corrections. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices have temporarily stabilized [3]. Import Data - In October, China imported 10.5932 million tons of coking coal, a month-on-month decrease of 3.03% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, remaining at a relatively high level. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 94.1244 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1231 million tons, or a decline of 5.16% [3]. - In terms of different countries, in October, Mongolia exported 5.3653 million tons of coking coal to China, a decrease of 635,200 tons from September, mainly due to the port closure during the National Day holiday. In November, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has recovered to a relatively high level, and there are recent market rumors that the port will test a daily customs clearance of 2,000 trucks, so the actual customs clearance volume needs to be monitored [3]. - In October, the import volume of Australian coking coal was 1.0469 million tons, with a significant month-on-month increase. The import volumes of Russian and Canadian coking coal in October both decreased slightly compared to September [3]. Domestic Production and Demand - The domestic clean coal production is generally stable. On the demand side, the profit of steel mills continues to shrink. Last week, the average daily pig iron output decreased to 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 4,800 tons compared to the same period last year. During the off - season demand period, pig iron output tends to decline, and the demand for raw materials is under pressure [3].

煤焦：焦价提涨陆续落地 盘面震荡运行 晨报 煤焦 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从基本面来看，上周山西多地煤矿产量恢复，短期煤矿仍有增产预期， 而下游采购节奏放缓，采购积极性下滑，虽然多数煤矿库存压力不大，但 煤矿原煤库存止降回升，后期煤价上涨将稍显乏力。精煤日均产量 75.7 万吨，环比前一周增加 1.9 万吨，同比下降 3.3 万吨。进口端，上周 （11.10-11.15）甘其毛都口岸蒙煤日均通关量 17.45 万吨，较前一周下 降 2.07 万吨，总体仍保持相对高位，口岸监管区呈现增库趋势。需求端， 钢厂利润延续收缩趋势，盈利率降至 40%以下，近期唐山地区阶段性限产 政策解除，促使铁水产量回升，上周日均铁水产量回升至 236.88 万吨，较 前一周增加 2.66 万吨，后期关注钢厂盈利情况及钢厂生产节奏变化。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：短期国内煤矿产量小幅修复，蒙煤通关量回升显著；需求小幅 波动，注意淡 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke remain at a relatively high level. The peak demand season and the downstream's inventory replenishment space support the price - holding confidence in the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3][4] Group 2: Industry Analysis Coke Market - During the National Day holiday, the coking coal and coke market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. Driven by downstream inventory replenishment, coke completed the first round of price increase at the beginning of the month. The price of tamping dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, and that of tamping wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton [3] - After the first - round price increase of coke, coke enterprises' profits improved. Most coke enterprises maintained a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of about 75%. Although the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected during the holiday and logistics was relatively slow, coke shipments were in an orderly manner [3] - Steel mills'开工 remained at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintaining at about 2.42 million tons, which supported the demand for raw materials [3] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market was generally stable, with individual mine prices experiencing high - level corrections. The current inventory pressure at the coal mine end was not obvious, which supported the relatively firm price [4] - Regarding imported coal, the fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal at the pithead increased from 53.54 - 54.35 US dollars to 57.3 - 58.15 US dollars, an increase of about 7%, with the equivalent warehouse price of about 770 - 800 yuan/ton. It was rumored that after the National Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance would increase the transportation capacity through automated loading and unloading, increasing the daily customs clearance volume from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000, with a one - month trial operation after the National Day, which needed continuous tracking [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - After major macro - events are finalized, market uncertainty decreases, and the market will return to the industrial logic [4] - For coking coal, the long - term agreement price of major mines in Shanxi has increased, the spot price is firm, the mine's inventory is transferred to downstream, and the spot trading volume is high. The coking coal market is expected to remain strong, but its upward space depends on whether other black - sector varieties can catch up. In the short - term, it is recommended to hold and add positions to J01/JM01 contracts [4][5] - For coke, the fifth round of spot price increase has been implemented, with limited room for further increase. The demand for coke remains resilient due to high production enthusiasm of steel mills. Coke enterprises are reducing inventory, and the inventory in ports is increasing [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rates of 523 mines and 110 coal - washing plants have decreased, and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises has also slightly declined [2] Inventory - Upstream mines and coal - washing plants are reducing inventory, while downstream steel mills and coking enterprises are increasing inventory. Port inventory has decreased [2] Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is stable at 1150 yuan/ton. The active contract price is 1221 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan. The basis is - 51 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 147 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan [2] Coke Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises has slightly decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills and the daily average pig - iron output have also declined. Supply and demand are flat month - on - month, but there is still a gap [3] Inventory - Coking enterprises are reducing inventory, steel mills' inventory has decreased, and port inventory has increased [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Tianjin Port is 1470 yuan/ton after the fifth round of price increase. The active contract price is 1644.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis is - 64 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 88 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan [3]