展望四季度，若基金费率销售新规落地以及理财浮盈逐步释放完毕， 信用类资产价值会否迎来重估？如何把握其中的参与机会？ 一、三季度，信用结构性抗跌与品种性超跌 三季度，债市持续调整，信用债多跟随利率债调整，内部整体呈现结 构性抗跌与品种性超跌的特征： 固定收益 | 固定收益专题 短信用整体相对抗跌，收益率上行幅度多落在 10bp 以内，信用利小 幅收窄，且是当季为数不多的录得正向回报的债券品种。 二永"利率放大器"属性再现，赎回担忧下频现急跌与深跌，尤其是 长端二永债，收益率累计上行逾 30bp，甚至 50bp，跌幅显著高于普信债。 此外，在持续近两个半月的调整中，超长信用债的跌幅也不浅。 二、配置盘的"交易行为"变化 信用资产价值重估之路 证券研究报告 信用策略系列 7 月以来，长端利率中枢震荡抬升，宏观叙事变化以及监管因素冲击 下，引发机构行为变化带来的交易摩擦与筹码互换，信用品种收益率整体 跟随调整之外也走出了结构性抗跌、品种性超跌的行情； 理财净买入信用债占整体债券净买入的比重中枢抬升。一方面，调整 后的信用票息价值逐步有所显现；另一方面，8-9 月普信债一级供给环比 明显走弱。 相应地，理财对存单的二级 ...

—— 信用利差周度跟踪 20250926 利率调整中信用利差大幅走高 二永债升幅较普信债更大 歌声ue 证券研究报告 3利率调整中信用利差大幅走高 二永债升幅较普信债更大 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 9 月 27 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524080002 联系电话：+86 15850662789 联系电话：+86 15850662789 邮 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [ ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a recovery in the over-sold perpetual bonds (二永) after a significant reduction in holdings the previous week, with a slight easing of selling pressure observed [1][9][15] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is mixed, with short-term credit showing resilience, while long-term credit continues to decline, leading to a steepening of the yield curve [1][8][15] - The report notes that funds are in a process of reducing duration, particularly cautious towards long and ultra-long credit, with a cumulative reduction of over 50% in long credit since late July [1][15] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that in the last week before holidays, the scale of wealth management products typically declines significantly, with a drop of over 800 billion yuan noted since 2022, and over 900 billion yuan in 2024 due to equity market influences [2][23][32] - The report states that the credit spread has fluctuated around the holiday periods, with a tendency to compress in the first week after the holiday [2][32] Group 3 - The report recommends a focus on coupon strategies for credit bonds, suggesting that avoiding significant exposure to credit varieties is prudent due to potential market disturbances [3][38] - Specific recommendations include selecting short-term coupon assets, particularly those with yields above 2%, and considering trading opportunities in 3-4 year high-grade perpetual bonds, which currently yield 1-3 basis points higher than benchmark bonds [3][38] - Caution is advised for ultra-long credit, with suggestions to reduce holdings as the trading profit potential appears limited [3][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Agency behavior has become the core concern recently. The regulations on redemption fees in the new public - offering fund sales rules have raised concerns about bond fund redemptions, leading to declines in policy - financial bonds, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and ultra - long - term government bonds. If the new rules are implemented, funds may flow back from bond funds to the balance sheets of banks and insurance companies. Wealth management products and bond ETFs are relatively more advantageous. Under the re - balancing of funds, the spreads of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds preferred by bond funds may widen, while general credit bonds and ETF component bonds are relatively more advantageous, especially those with medium - short durations [1]. - In the short term, institutions are cautious, approaching the quarter - end, and the stock market remains strong. The odds of bonds have improved, but the probability of success is still not high. It is recommended to explore medium - short - duration coupon opportunities and use moderate leverage while defending. Institutions with stable liability ends should gradually increase their allocations during adjustments, with general credit bonds and ABS being better than Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Situation - The bond market continues to be under pressure due to the shock - strengthening of the stock market and the disturbance of the new bond fund redemption fee rules, with the curve continuing to steepen. The recent strengthening of the stock market restricts bond - buying, and the new rules on bond fund redemption fees have led to large - scale bond market adjustments from September 8 - 12, with significant declines in policy - financial bonds and Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [12]. - The odds of bonds have increased, but sentiment is weak, and the probability of success is still not high. The real inflection point requires the coordination of fundamentals, the stock market, and the implementation of the new rules [15]. 2. Impact of Agency Behavior Bond Funds - Bond funds are greatly affected by the new rules. If redemption fees increase, their flexibility and cost - effectiveness will weaken significantly, leading to a decline in demand. Funds may flow back to the balance sheets of banks and insurance companies. Wealth management products will have relatively more advantages, and the outsourcing of bond funds may decrease. ETFs are exempt from redemption fees (excluding over - the - counter index funds and ETF link funds), with expanded product advantages, and the "Matthew effect" in the industry may intensify. Certificate of deposit funds and money market funds that are also exempt will also benefit relatively. There is also uncertainty about the adjustment of the tax - exemption policy for public - offering funds [16]. - This shift in behavior significantly affects the demand structure of the bond market. Banks and insurance companies' self - operations prefer government bonds and local government bonds, increasing their allocation demand, while the demand for policy - financial bonds, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and even 30 - year government bonds preferred by funds will shrink, and the spreads of relevant varieties will widen significantly. The proportion of trading positions in the bond market will decrease, affecting market trading activity and pricing efficiency [16]. Bond ETFs - The new rules are relatively beneficial to bond ETFs, which have developed rapidly this year and still have room for expansion in the future, bringing about the allocation demand for relevant underlying bonds. The second batch of 14 science and technology innovation bond ETFs was approved on September 8, and after their establishment, they are expected to bring more allocation demand. However, in the short term, the yield of relevant underlying bonds of science and technology innovation bonds has limited room for further decline, and medium - short - duration bonds can be considered for allocation during adjustments [16]. Wealth Management Products - Wealth management products are relatively more advantageous. Without the constraint of redemption fees, with a wider investment scope and better net - value drawdown control, they are more in line with individual investment preferences. If the redemption fees of bond funds increase, wealth management products may further seize market share. The outsourcing of wealth management products may also decrease. Compared with bond funds, wealth management products prefer general credit bonds with shorter durations [20]. Insurance Companies - Insurance companies may return more to their own investments. If redemption fees increase and with the implementation of I9, insurance companies may be more inclined to invest on their own. Compared with funds, insurance companies prefer to allocate ultra - long - term local government bonds and increase their allocation of medium - and high - grade credit bonds during market adjustments [20]. 3. Investment Strategies Coupon Strategy - Institutions with unstable liability ends are recommended to focus on medium - short - duration sinking allocation. Institutions with stable liability ends can gradually increase their allocation of credit bonds during adjustments, initially focusing on bonds with a duration of less than 5 years, and then increasing the allocation of long - duration bonds as the uncertainties in the stock market and agency behavior become clearer. Key attention should be paid to high - quality urban investment bonds in regions with controllable credit risks and central and state - owned enterprises in stable industries such as power, transportation, and non - ferrous metals [23]. Variety Selection - Tier 2 and perpetual bonds are greatly affected by the new bond market redemption fee rules. If the policy is implemented, their variety premiums may be re - evaluated. It is recommended to shorten the duration recently. Trading institutions can focus on trading opportunities brought about by over - adjustments but should also enter and exit quickly within 5 years. Institutions with stable liability ends such as insurance companies can build positions in an inverted - pyramid manner during adjustments. The return of bond - allocation funds to the balance sheets of banks and insurance companies is beneficial to the investment in high - grade ABS, which still has a certain variety spread and can continue to be allocated in medium - and high - grade bonds. Private perpetual bonds need to guard against liquidity and valuation disturbances caused by increased redemption pressure, especially those with medium - long durations [26]. Leverage - The interest - rate spread has widened with market adjustments. The liquidity situation may continue to be neutral and loose, and with the expectation of the central bank's purchase of government bonds rising, moderate leverage can be used to increase returns. However, attention should be paid to liquidity disturbances near the quarter - end [26]. Duration - Continue to focus on medium - short - duration defense. Wait for the uncertainties in the stock market and agency behavior to become clear before looking for opportunities for the bond market to rebound and extend the duration. Currently, the market sentiment is still cautious, and there may still be adjustment risks in the medium - and long - ends due to factors such as bond fund redemptions and wealth management product redemptions at the quarter - end [26]. 4. Specific Bond Types Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - If the new bond fund redemption fee rules are implemented, it may lead to a re - pricing of the spreads of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. As of mid - 2025, bond funds held a total of 2.53 trillion yuan of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, accounting for 35% of the outstanding scale. If banks, insurance companies, and wealth management products redeem half of their bond funds, Tier 2 and perpetual bonds will bear the brunt due to their good liquidity. Theoretically, it may drive the yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds up by 9 - 10BP [2][47]. - After over - adjustments, positive factors include the allocation demand from insurance companies, wealth management products, and annuities. However, compared with bond funds, insurance companies prefer medium - long - duration, medium - high - grade Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, with a higher preference for Tier 2 capital bonds than bank perpetual bonds. Wealth management products may have more demand for general credit bonds. Annuities may prefer new bonds after the new VAT rules [52]. - Recently, caution is recommended for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. The duration should be appropriately shortened. Trading institutions can focus on trading opportunities brought about by over - adjustments but should also enter and exit quickly within 5 years. Institutions with stable liability ends such as insurance companies can build positions in an inverted - pyramid manner during adjustments [52]. Urban Investment Bonds - In August 2025, urban investment bonds continued the net - repayment trend, but the net - repayment amount decreased compared with the same period last year and the previous month. The registration and review situation showed that the amount of urban investment bonds registered by the association increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, and the amount of urban investment bonds whose review was terminated by the exchange decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [81]. - Since this year, debt - resolution resources have become more abundant. As of September 5, 2025, the planned issuance scale of "special bonds for replacing hidden debts" was 1.95 trillion yuan, and 109.85 billion yuan of "special new - issue special bonds" had been issued. Eight provinces had allocated 171.5 billion yuan of special bonds to repay local arrears [86][87][89]. - The yield of urban investment bonds has been rising, with short - end varieties performing better than long - end ones. Since mid - August 2025, affected by the strong stock market and the new bond fund redemption fee rules, the yield of urban investment bonds has generally increased, with the spreads of AAA and AA + rated bonds with a duration of less than 2 years slightly decreasing by about 1BP, while the yields of long - end bonds mostly increasing by more than 10BP [99]. - In the short term, it is recommended to look for opportunities while defending, and the short - duration sinking strategy may be relatively better. Institutions with stable liability ends can gradually participate in the allocation opportunities of medium - long - duration bonds of high - grade issuers. Sinking can focus on regions with controllable credit risks and high coupons, and control the duration within 3 years [103]. Industrial Bonds - In the first half of 2025, the revenue and profits of industrial bond - issuing entities decreased year - on - year, but the operating cash flow improved year - on - year. There was significant profit differentiation among industries. Industries such as home appliances, non - ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, machinery, and power had profit growth and high ROE. Industries such as steel and cement benefited from anti - involution policies, with product prices rising and profits slightly recovering from a low base. The real estate, light manufacturing, and construction industries remained sluggish, and the profits of the coal industry further declined [4]. - The fundamentals of industrial bonds are weakly recovering, and with increased market disturbances, it is recommended to mainly allocate state - owned enterprise bonds with medium - short durations and moderately sink to explore local state - owned enterprises and leading private enterprises in stable industries such as non - ferrous metals, transportation, power, and new energy. For real estate bonds, the incremental policies are yet to be observed, and the valuation risks may still rise. It is recommended to mainly allocate state - owned enterprise bonds with a duration of about 1 year and medium - high grades, and pay attention to the sales trends in September - October and the statements of real estate - stabilizing policies [4].

Group 1 - The overall credit bond yields have followed the adjustment of interest rate bonds, with credit spreads showing mixed changes. Specifically, the decline in the 3-5 year high-grade perpetual bonds was the most significant, reaching 6-11 basis points, while the longer-term bonds also experienced notable declines [1][11] - City investment bonds saw a greater decline compared to medium-short bonds, with the 7-year ultra-long city investment bonds experiencing the largest drop of around 8 basis points [1][11] - The credit spread for medium-short bonds, especially those with maturities of 4 years and above, was generally weaker than that of the same maturity national development bonds, leading to a passive narrowing of credit spreads during the week [1][11] Group 2 - Since July, the trading volume of public credit bonds has been continuously shrinking, and the duration has also decreased from its high levels. The long-term credit bonds (over 5 years) have shown relative resilience due to buying from insurance and wealth management products, while the buying power from funds has decreased significantly [2][16] - The valuation of ETF constituent bonds has generally followed the market adjustment, but the decline in valuation for constituent bonds was structurally lower than that of non-constituent bonds of similar maturity [3][24] - The long-end constituent bonds, especially ultra-long bonds, were more resilient during the week, with most individual bonds experiencing smaller valuation declines compared to non-constituent bonds [3][44] Group 3 - Since May, the trading duration of perpetual bonds has been continuously extended, with both the trading volume and proportion of bonds with maturities over 5 years reaching year-to-date highs. This indicates a shift from trading to allocation among major participating institutions [4][46] - The supply of perpetual bonds, including TLAC bonds, has significantly increased during this period, and the buying power from public funds has been higher than selling power, particularly for long-end perpetual bonds [4][47] Group 4 - As of August 15, 2025, some AA and AA(2) credit bonds with maturities within 2 years have seen yields drop to over 1.9%, indicating the value of short-term bonds. These bonds also possess defensive attributes amid market volatility, as the bond market will continue to be influenced by equity market fluctuations [5][60] - The 3-4 year perpetual bonds have emerged as a cost-effective option, with their yield curve steepening and current valuations being higher than those of similarly rated medium-short bonds and city investment bonds, offering better trading value and liquidity [5][60]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The credit bond market this week showed characteristics of "the end of spread compression, intensified liquidity stratification, and the initial appearance of policy disturbances." The market oscillated between policy expectations and capital - market fluctuations, with institutional behavior shifting from being dominated by trading desks to being supported by allocation desks. The strategy suggests seizing the "tail - end" market opportunities. [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Dynamics and Market Hotspots - **Central Bank's Reverse Repo Operations**: From August 4th to 8th, 2025, the central bank had a net回笼 of 41 billion yuan in the first half - week and then conducted a 70 - billion - yuan outright reverse repo on Friday, switching to a net injection of 16.35 billion yuan for the whole week. This operation balanced government bond supply, tax - period disturbances, and financial stability while leaving room for subsequent policy tool innovation. [2] - **Credit Bond Issuance and Yield Changes** - **Primary Market**: From August 4th to 8th, the issuance and net financing scale of general credit bonds increased significantly compared to the previous week. The issuance amount of general credit bonds was 366.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 188 billion yuan; the net financing was 240.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 186 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term was 3.36 years, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75 years, and the weighted issuance interest rate was 1.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29 percentage points. [2] - **Secondary Market**: The turnover rate of general credit bonds decreased week - on - week, with the turnover rate of general credit bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year slightly increasing, and that of other maturities significantly decreasing. The turnover rate of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds also decreased, possibly due to some institutions shifting to AA - and below - rated Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. [3] - **Yield and Spread**: As of August 8th, the average yields of medium - and short - term notes, urban investment bonds, Tier 2 capital bonds, and perpetual bonds of AAA - rated bonds at various maturities all decreased week - on - week. Credit spreads across the board compressed, with 1 - year - term spreads decreasing by 3 - 5BP, 3 - year - term spreads decreasing by 1 - 4BP, and 5 - year - term spreads decreasing by 2 - 3BP. [3] - **Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds**: The yields of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased across the board this week, with medium - and low - grade varieties performing slightly better. The spreads of 3 - 5 - year high - grade varieties decreased less. [4] - **Regional and Industry Analysis**: Most provincial urban investment bond spreads decreased by 2 - 3BP, with Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and Qinghai having the largest decreases of 6 - 7BP. Most industry spreads of industrial bonds widened slightly this week, with the AA - rated steel industry having the largest spread widening of 5.5BP. [4] Credit Strategy - Suggest focusing on the sinking opportunities of 2 - 3 - year AA/AA - rated urban investment bonds and short - term varieties in the steel industry. For bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, currently, the 3 - 5Y large - bank capital bonds have good liquidity, and capital gains can be gambled on. [5]

Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - Report title: Outlook for the Credit Bond Market from August to October 2025 [2] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yang Xuefang, Zhang Jinyuan [3] - Date: August 5, 2025 [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term (within 1 month), credit spreads may still have room to compress, but in the next 1 - 3 months, spread compression faces resistance and potential adjustment risks are greater [4][6][32][70][71] - Credit strategy: moderately reduce duration and seize the profit - taking window [4][6] Group 3: 7 - month Review 3.1 Primary Market - In July 2025, the issuance of traditional credit bonds decreased slightly month - on - month, and net supply increased month - on - month. Industrial bond net financing decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, and urban investment bond net financing turned positive. Bank perpetual and secondary capital (two - tier) bonds' issuance and net supply increased significantly month - on - month. Secondary capital bond issuance and net financing increased, while perpetual bond issuance and net financing decreased [13][16][32] 3.2 Secondary Market - In July, credit bond yields fluctuated upwards, and credit spreads were passively narrowed. Short - term yields decreased slightly, medium - and long - term yields mostly increased, and long - term yields increased more significantly. Credit spreads generally narrowed, with weak - quality medium - term notes and bank perpetual bonds performing better. In terms of credit spreads, ordinary credit bonds' spreads mostly narrowed, two - tier capital bonds' spreads mostly widened, and bank perpetual bonds' spreads mostly narrowed. The term spreads within 5 years generally widened, especially the 3 - 1 year term spread. In terms of holding - period yields, the capital gains of medium - and long - term credit bonds were negative, and the short - term holding - period yields remained positive [19][23][27][31][32] Group 4: 8 - 10 Month Outlook 4.1 Compression Phases of Credit Spreads - Phase 1 (May 1 - May 23): Overall catch - up of credit bonds under loose liquidity. Driven by the implementation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the expectation of financial disintermediation and deposit transfer, except for some long - term secondary capital bonds, credit bonds generally rose, with yields and credit spreads declining [39][43] - Phase 2 (May 23 - July 18): A scramble for constituent bonds under the expansion of credit bond ETFs, further compressing credit spreads. Driven by continuous loose liquidity and the rapid expansion of credit bond ETFs, medium - and long - term credit bonds continued to catch up, and constituent bonds outperformed non - constituent bonds [48][52][58] 4.2 Characteristics of Credit Bond Market under Recent Adjustments - Credit bond yields had a pulse - type adjustment, but the widening of credit spreads was not obvious. Driven by the rapid rise of commodities and equity assets under the "anti - involution" background, along with tightened liquidity, the bond market had a pulse - type adjustment. The adjustment range of credit bond yields was mostly around 10BP, and the widening of credit spreads was mostly within 5BP. The credit spreads of long - term general credit bonds were even passively narrowing, and the spreads of constituent bonds and non - constituent bonds did not converge [61][65] 4.3 Market Outlook - Short - term (within 1 month): Credit spreads may still have room to compress. Market sentiment eases, redemption pressure eases, and credit bonds still have a positive carry environment and room for carry - trade and leveraging. The VAT recovery policy on interest income of treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds may indirectly benefit general credit bonds [4][70] - Next 1 - 3 months: Spread compression faces resistance, and potential adjustment risks are greater. August - October may be a volatile period for the bond market, with the curve possibly becoming steeper. The difficulty of further loosening liquidity is increasing, and the probability of double - cuts (RRR and interest rate cuts) decreases. The incremental funds for credit bonds may be relatively limited, and their sustainability remains to be seen. The current credit spread protection space is thin, and the market trading structure is fragile. Credit bond ETFs may amplify market volatility [4][32][71] Group 5: Credit Strategies - Moderately reduce duration and seize the profit - taking window. For ultra - long - term credit bonds and credit bond ETF constituent bonds, it may be approaching the profit - taking window [4][6] - For financial bonds,建议 reduce the position and duration of two - tier bonds and pay attention to TLAC non - capital bonds with both offensive and defensive attributes [6] - For general credit bonds, be vigilant about constituent bonds and focus on urban investment bonds and inter - bank bonds. Pay attention to the investment opportunities in 1 - 3 - year AA + and above - grade inter - bank bonds and 1 - 3 - year AA/AA(2)/AA - grade urban investment bonds [6] - Pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the expansion of the Southbound Bond Connect. The expansion may bring allocation opportunities, and the dim - sum bond market is one of the core expansion directions [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In August, credit bonds may fluctuate more on the whole, with more opportunities than risks, and credit buyers are relatively active. It is advisable for institutions with unstable liability ends to appropriately explore medium - and low - grade general credit bonds within 3 years, and trade 3 - 5 - year secondary perpetual bonds and high - grade general credit bonds with good liquidity. Institutions with strong trading capabilities can also appropriately trade ultra - long secondary perpetual bonds and take profit when the yield approaches the July low. General credit bonds are expected to have opportunities to narrow spreads, and the old secondary perpetual bonds are expected to have a small supplementary increase [22][23]. Summary According to the Directory Credit Hotspots: Review and Outlook of the Current Round of Credit Bond Adjustment - During July 18 - July 29, 2025, affected by policies and other factors, the bond market adjusted. Credit bonds had a larger correction amplitude than interest - rate bonds, with medium - and long - term adjustments more significant and secondary perpetual bonds adjusting more. Credit spreads generally widened, except for some passive narrowing [9]. - As of August 1, 2025, in the adjustment stage (7.18 - 7.29), secondary perpetual bonds had the largest correction amplitude, followed by 3Y, 5Y, 10Y general credit bonds. In the repair stage (7.29 - 8.1), short - and medium - term secondary perpetual bonds repaired first, and 1 - 5Y secondary perpetual bonds and medium - and high - grade 5Y, 10Y general credit bonds repaired relatively more [12]. - In terms of institutional behavior, from July 21 - July 29, funds sold a large amount of credit bonds, while wealth management and insurance increased their positions. From July 30 - August 1, institutional buyers were active, and the short - term redemption wave basically subsided. With the expected reduction of insurance product predetermined interest rates on August 31, buyers may continue to be active [14]. - Credit bond ETFs were affected by the bond market adjustment. During July 18 - July 29, the average closing prices of benchmark - making credit bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs fell, and then repaired from July 29 - August 1. Most science - innovation bond ETFs increased in scale, while benchmark - making credit bond ETFs decreased slightly [15]. - The component bonds and non - component bonds of credit bond ETFs showed different trends in the adjustment and repair periods. Component bonds generally had a larger correction amplitude and a smaller repair amplitude, but the overall difference was not significant [19]. Market Review: "Anti - involution" Trading Cools Down, and Credit Bonds Fully Recover - From July 25 to August 1, 2025, after the July Politburo meeting, the "anti - involution" trading sentiment cooled down, the impact of the equity market on the bond market weakened, and the bond market recovered. Most credit bond yields declined, with short - and medium - term yields down about 3BP and medium - and long - term spreads up about 2BP passively. Secondary perpetual bond yields generally declined significantly, and spreads declined about 2BP. Wealth management and funds had net purchases, and the scale of credit bond ETFs increased by 1.26% compared with the previous week. Most median spreads of AAA - rated public bonds in various industries and most median spreads of urban investment bonds in each province declined, with Guizhou's spreads down more than 6BP [2][26]. Primary Issuance: Net Financing of Corporate Credit Bonds Soars, and Average Issuance Interest Rates Fluctuate - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, corporate credit bonds issued a total of 217.4 billion yuan, a 33% decrease from the previous period; financial credit bonds issued a total of 31.4 billion yuan, an 86% decrease. Corporate credit bonds had a net financing of 51.6 billion yuan, an 84% increase from the previous period, with urban investment bonds having a net repayment of 6.6 billion yuan and industrial bonds having a net financing of 48.2 billion yuan. Financial credit bonds had a net financing of 6.9 billion yuan. The average issuance interest rates of medium - and short - term notes fluctuated, and the average issuance interest rates of corporate bonds showed a downward trend except for AA - rated bonds [3][51]. Secondary Trading: Short - and Medium - Duration Trading is Active, and Long - Duration Trading Declines - Active trading entities are mainly medium - and high - grade, short - and medium - term, and central and state - owned enterprises. Urban investment bond active trading entities are divided into two types: mainstream high - grade platforms in economically strong provinces and core main platforms in areas with relatively high spreads in large economic provinces. Real - estate bond and private - enterprise bond active trading entities are mainly AAA - rated, with trading durations mostly in the short - and medium - term. There was no trading of urban investment bonds with a remaining term of more than 5 years, a decline from the previous week [4][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, credit bonds may be mostly volatile, with more opportunities than risks, and credit buying is relatively active. The "anti - involution" policy has returned to rationality, and the stock market may consolidate in August, which is conducive to the restoration of bond market sentiment. However, there are still volatile factors in the bond market in the future. The buying demand is expected to be relatively strong due to the upcoming reduction of insurance product preset interest rates and the new VAT regulations [27]. - After the previous adjustment, the spreads of general - purpose credit bonds still have room to narrow, and it is recommended to focus on general - purpose credit bonds with high - grade and good liquidity, as well as credit bond ETF component bonds. Second - tier and perpetual bonds should focus on the VAT exemption opportunities of old bonds [28][29]. 3. Summary by Directory Credit Hotspots: Review and Outlook of the Current Round of Credit Bond Adjustment - **Adjustment and Repair Process**: From July 18 - 29, credit bonds had an overall correction, with second - tier and perpetual bonds having the largest correction, followed by 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y general - purpose credit bonds. From July 29 - August 1, short - and medium - term second - tier and perpetual bonds repaired first, followed by high - grade 5Y and 10Y general - purpose credit bonds [1][13]. - **Institutional Behavior**: From July 21 - 29, funds sold a large amount of credit bonds, while wealth management and insurance increased their positions. Since the repair, institutional buying has been active, and the short - term redemption wave has basically subsided. Before the reduction of insurance product preset interest rates on August 31, the buying may continue [17]. - **Credit Bond ETF**: From July 18 - 29, the prices of credit bond ETFs declined, and the scale of benchmark - making credit bond ETFs decreased, while most of the science - innovation bond ETFs increased. During the repair period, credit bond ETFs recovered. The component bonds of credit bond ETFs had a larger decline during the adjustment and a smaller recovery than non - component bonds, but the difference was not significant [18]. Market Review: Cooling of "Anti - Involution" Trading, Comprehensive Repair of Credit Bonds - From July 25 to August 1, after the Politburo meeting, the "anti - involution" trading sentiment cooled, the impact of the equity market on the bond market weakened, and the bond market recovered. The yields of most credit bonds declined, with short - and medium - term yields down about 3BP, and medium - and long - term spreads up about 2BP passively. The yields of second - tier and perpetual bonds generally declined significantly, with 3 - 5Y varieties down more than 5BP, and spreads down about 2BP. Buying recovered, with wealth management net buying 199.1 billion yuan and funds net buying 94.62 billion yuan. The scale of credit bond ETFs was 3337 billion yuan, up 1.26% from the previous week. Industry spreads of most AAA - rated public bonds and provincial urban investment bonds declined, with Guizhou's spreads down more than 6BP [3]. Primary Issuance: Net Financing of Corporate Credit Bonds Soars, Average Issuance Interest Rates Fluctuate - From July 28 to August 1, corporate credit bonds issued a total of 217.4 billion yuan, a 33% decrease from the previous period; financial credit bonds issued a total of 31.4 billion yuan, an 86% decrease. Corporate credit bonds had a net financing of 51.6 billion yuan, a 84% increase, with urban investment bonds having a net repayment of 6.6 billion yuan and industrial bonds having a net financing of 48.2 billion yuan. Financial credit bonds had a net financing of 6.9 billion yuan. The average issuance interest rates of medium - and short - term notes fluctuated, and the average issuance interest rates of corporate bonds showed a downward trend except for AA - rated bonds [4][62]. Secondary Trading: Active Trading in Short - and Medium - Duration Bonds, Decline in Long - Duration Trading - Active trading entities are mainly high - grade, short - and medium - term, and central and state - owned enterprises. Urban investment bonds are mainly from strong economic provinces' high - grade platforms and high - spread areas in large economic provinces. Real - estate bonds and private - enterprise bonds are mainly AAA - rated, with short - and medium - term trading durations. There was no trading of urban investment bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years, a decline from the previous week [5][72].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The restoration of VAT on some bonds is a one - time policy that does not affect the bond market trend. The new bond interest rate may increase by 2.8 - 5.4bps, and the new - old bond spread may be around 5.6 - 10.8bp [1][3] - The VAT restoration may increase total tax revenue by about 31.55 billion yuan. Banks' tax burden increase is the most obvious, and the tax scale increase of treasury bonds and local bonds is the most significant [2][16] - It is negative for newly - issued interest - rate bonds and newly - issued Tier 2 capital bonds, and positive for general credit bonds. It is beneficial for old bonds and negative for new bonds. Currently, the tax advantage of public funds in interest - rate bonds is strengthened, but there is a possibility of adjustment [3][18] - The central bank will optimize the bond market structure and institutional arrangements, and the tax system will be further optimized in the future. Whether the tax exemption advantage of public funds will be cancelled is a matter of future concern [4][19] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Tax Policy Adjustment - Since August 8, 2025, VAT will be restored on the interest income of newly - issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds after this date. The interest income of bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity [1][7] Bond Investment Tax Calculation - For general taxpayers, the VAT rate for bond investment is 6%, and the VAT and surcharges combined rate is 6.34%. The enterprise income tax rate is 25%, and assuming a 6% VAT rate, the enterprise income tax is 23.42% of the taxable interest or transfer spread [8] Previous Tax Preferences - Specific tax types: Interest income from treasury bonds and local government bonds is exempt from VAT and income tax; the income tax rate of railway bonds is halved; policy - financial bonds are exempt from individual income tax [9] - Specific institutions: Interest income from financial inter - bank transactions is exempt from VAT; public funds' interest income is exempt from income tax, and transfer income is exempt from VAT and income tax; asset management product managers use a simplified VAT calculation method [9] Post - adjustment Tax Rates - Public funds and other asset management products' VAT rate on interest income from newly - issued bonds after August 8, 2025 is 3.26%, while banks' self - operated investment in such bonds has a VAT rate of 6.34% [9][10] Impact on Different Institutions - It is generally negative for all types of institutions, with banks' self - operated tax cost increasing the most. The estimated VAT scale for banks' self - operated investment in newly - issued bonds is 232.73 billion yuan [14][15] Impact on Different Bond Types - Negative for newly - issued interest - rate bonds and newly - issued Tier 2 capital bonds, positive for general credit bonds. Negative for new bonds and positive for old bonds [3][18] Future Outlook - The central bank will optimize the bond market structure and institutional arrangements, and the tax system will be further optimized. Whether the tax exemption advantage of public funds will be cancelled needs to be continuously observed [4][19]