Core Viewpoint - The optical communication sector continues to decline, with significant drops in stock prices for several companies, while Oracle's disappointing financial results and increased capital expenditures raise concerns about its future performance [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Cambridge Technology (603083) shares fell by 4.73%, trading at HKD 80.65 [1] - Changfei Optical Fiber (601869) shares decreased by 4.49%, trading at HKD 40.38 [1] - Huiju Technology (01729) shares dropped by 4.3%, trading at HKD 16.26 [1] - Hongte Precision (06088) shares declined by 2.61%, trading at HKD 5.22 [1] Group 2: Oracle's Financial Results - Oracle reported a free cash flow of -$10 billion for the second fiscal quarter of 2026, significantly below market expectations [1] - Capital expenditures surged by 41% quarter-over-quarter to $12 billion [1] - The company has raised its capital expenditure forecast for fiscal year 2026 to $50 billion, an increase of $15 billion from previous estimates [1] Group 3: Credit Default Swaps and Project Delays - Oracle's five-year credit default swaps have reached their highest level since 2009, indicating increased credit risk [1] - Reports suggest that Oracle has postponed the completion date for some data centers prepared for OpenAI from 2027 to 2028 [1] - An Oracle spokesperson clarified that there are no delays in meeting contractual commitments, and all milestones are on track [1]

值得注意的是，有报道指出，据知情人士透露，甲骨文公司已将其为OpenAI准备的一些数据中心的完 工日期从2027年推迟至2028年。甲骨文发言人随后澄清称："相关场地的选址和交付时间表，是在与 OpenAI签署协议后密切协商并共同确定的。目前，对满足合同承诺所需的所有站点，没有出现任何延 误，所有里程碑都在按计划推进。" 智通财经APP获悉，光通信板块延续昨日下跌，截至发稿，剑桥科技(06166)跌4.73%，报80.65港元；长 飞光纤光缆(06869)跌4.49%，报40.38港元；汇聚科技(01729)跌4.3%，报16.26港元；鸿特精密(06088)跌 2.61%，报5.22港元。 消息面上，甲骨文发布2026财年第二财季业绩。数据显示，公司自由现金流为-100亿美元，远逊于市场 预期，资本开支则环比激增41%至120亿美元。甲骨文高管在电话会议中披露，2026财年资本开支预计 上调至500亿美元，较此前预期增加150亿美元。根据洲际交易所数据，甲骨文公司的五年期信用违约掉 期已经攀升至2009年以来的最高水平。 ...

SFC | 名称 日日 li | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▶ | | --- | --- | --- | | 甲骨文(ORACLE) | 223.010 | 0.67% | | us ORCL | 194.250 | -12.90% 盘前 | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 183.780 | -0.64% | | US NVDA | 181.430 | -1.28% 盘前 | | 超威半导体(AMD) | 221.420 | -0.09% | | US AMD | 218.800 | -1.18% 盘前 | | 脸书(META PLATFOR | 650.130 | -1.04% | | US META | 646.500 | -0.56% 盘前 | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 451.450 | 1.41% | | US TSLA | 448.780 | -0.59% 盘前 | | 微软(MICROSOFT) | 478.560 | -2.74% | | us MSFT | 476.750 | -0.38% 盘前 | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 231.780 | 1.69% | | US AMZN | ...

来源：滚动播报 在美联储利率决定于格林威治时间1900公布前，欧元计价信用债的违约保护成本小幅上升。市场价格反 映出美联储在周三利率决定中降息的可能性为89%，但投资者不确定决策者将暗示未来以何种速度降 息。Capital.com的Daniela Hathorn在一份报告中说："市场将希望了解成员认为2026年12月的利率水平将 在哪里。"标普全球市场财智的数据显示，iTraxx Europe Crossover欧元高收益信用违约掉期指数上升1 个基点，至256个基点。iTraxx Europe Senior Financials欧元投资级信用违约掉期指数上升1个基点，至57 个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oracle (ORCL.US) is set to release its Q2 FY2026 earnings report on December 10, 2023, with analysts expecting revenue of $16.22 billion, a 15.4% year-over-year increase, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.64, reflecting an 11.6% growth [1]. Revenue and Earnings Performance - Historical data shows Oracle has exceeded revenue expectations only twice in the past eight quarters, with an average revenue surprise of -0.34% [2][3]. - In terms of earnings per share (EPS), Oracle has a better track record, achieving an average positive surprise of 1.02% [4][3]. Market Sentiment and Stock Reaction - Despite a cautious market outlook due to supply chain constraints affecting data center construction, Oracle's cloud infrastructure and remaining performance obligations (RPO) have shown strong growth, leading to an average stock price increase of 8.52% in the week following earnings releases [5][6]. Key Areas of Investor Focus - Investors are advised to focus on three critical areas in the upcoming earnings report: debt situation, cash flow status, and developments related to OpenAI [7][8]. - The company reported Q1 FY2024 revenue of $14.93 billion, a 12.2% increase, but fell short of market expectations by $1.17 billion; non-GAAP EPS was $1.47, up 5.75% year-over-year, but also below consensus [8]. Financial Health Concerns - Following a significant spike in stock price after a record RPO increase of 359% and a $300 billion computing power agreement with OpenAI, investor concerns about Oracle's ability to fulfill these orders have led to a stock price decline of over 35% since September [9]. - The company has issued $18 billion in investment-grade bonds and may need to raise up to $100 billion to fund data center construction, raising concerns reflected in the credit default swap (CDS) market [9]. Future Guidance and Valuation - Investors should pay close attention to Oracle's clarity on its funding plans for AI infrastructure and the timeline for returning to positive free cash flow, as these factors are crucial for assessing financial strength [10]. - The company has set ambitious long-term targets for gross margins and EPS, but investors need to evaluate current margin trends [10]. - Oracle's forward P/E ratio is approximately 29.5, lower than its previous 35.5 but still above the five-year average of 21.3, indicating limited upside potential [11].

Core Insights - The sudden collapse of First Brands Group has led to a significant trust crisis on Wall Street, drawing comparisons to the Bear Stearns incident [1] - Jefferies Financial Group, which acted as both an advisor and financier for First Brands, faces severe scrutiny due to discrepancies in debt reporting and potential losses in its asset management division [1][2] Company Overview - First Brands Group, based in Cleveland, is a century-old automotive parts giant, known for products like oil filters and wipers, with major clients including Walmart, Amazon, and AutoZone [1][2] - The company filed for bankruptcy at the end of September 2025, admitting that over $2 billion of investor funds were unaccounted for [2] Jefferies Financial Group's Role - Jefferies has been closely associated with First Brands since 2014, providing financing and M&A advisory services [2] - The firm’s asset management division, Leucadia, purchased receivables from First Brands, becoming a key financier [2] Financial Practices and Risks - First Brands utilized a factoring model, selling future receivables to financial institutions for cash flow, which posed risks if the company manipulated accounts or double-pledged assets [3][4] - Jefferies failed to disclose high-risk operations in its marketing materials, misrepresenting First Brands' debt as approximately $5.9 billion, while actual debt was later revealed to exceed $11.6 billion [3] Crisis Development - In the summer of 2025, Jefferies was preparing new refinancing for First Brands, but warning signs emerged as institutions began shorting the company [5] - First Brands halted payments to Point Bonita and ceased communication with Jefferies, leading to internal unrest [5] - The company filed for bankruptcy shortly after, revealing undisclosed liabilities and significant discrepancies in receivables [6] Market Reaction - Following the news, Jefferies' stock plummeted by 18%, resulting in a market cap loss of approximately $2.5 billion, raising questions about its due diligence [7] - Jefferies' leadership defended the firm’s fundamentals, claiming the market reaction was exaggerated, but concerns about its judgment and risk exposure remain [7][8]

Core Insights - The credit default swaps for Euro junk bonds have increased by 3 basis points to 285 basis points [1] Group 1 - The rise in credit default swaps indicates a growing concern regarding the credit risk associated with Euro junk bonds [1]

Core Insights - The cost of credit default swaps for Israel's 5-year government bonds has dropped to a 12-week low following a ceasefire agreement with Iran, indicating improved market sentiment and a renewed appetite for risk assets [1] Group 1 - The 5-year credit default swap for Israel decreased by 6 basis points, reaching 91 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The spread of high-grade dollar bonds in Asia has widened by at least 2 basis points [1] - The credit default swaps in Asia have also increased by at least 2 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The credit default swaps (CDS) for Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain have slightly decreased by 1 basis point from last Friday's closing high amid escalating tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict [1] Group 1 - The CDS for Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain experienced a minor decline [1] - The decline in CDS occurred against the backdrop of heightened conflict between Israel and Iran [1]