智通财经APP获悉，美国7月就业报告意外疲软，引发联储官员对经济前景的进一步担忧。亚特兰大联 储主席博斯蒂克周五表示，最新就业数据令人担忧，或暗示美国经济正在更广泛地走弱。他在接受采访 时称，这份就业报告"具有重要意义"，并指出此前数据的下修"幅度相当大"。 美国劳工部最新公布的数据显示，7月非农就业岗位仅增加7.3万个，远低于市场预期的11万个；而6月 的就业数据也被大幅下修，从原先估计的逾20万个下调至仅1.4万个。 尽管如此，博斯蒂克表示，目前劳动力市场"在许多方面仍然良好"，并称即便面对这份数据，他也不会 改变本周联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的利率决定。他指出，这些就业数据可能意味着经济中的风险"正 在趋于平衡"，但他强调，当前通胀距离美联储2%的目标仍较远，相较之下，就业市场的偏离程度较 小。 对于市场期待的2025年更多降息可能，博斯蒂克态度谨慎，称"尚未准备"提高降息预测。他还表示，在 当前复杂的经济环境中，企业可能需要长达12个月时间来调整其定价策略，"我认为我们现在处在一个 非常困难的环境里。" 哈马克进一步表示，失业率作为"我们拥有的最可靠指标之一"，仍然处于过去一年内的常规区间，因此 ...

摩根大通CEO戴蒙：我们应该对（美联储）利率决定"谨慎一些"。 ...

来源：中国金融信息网 新华财经北京7月29日电 10年期美债收益率周一（28日）小幅走高，因投资者预期美国联邦储备理事会（美联储，fed）将在周三晚些时 候结束为期两天的政策会议后公布利率决定，以及将揭示关税对经济影响的关键通胀数据。 据美国财政部数据，截至当天收盘，2年期美债收益率持平于上周五的3.91%，10年期美债收益率上升2BPs至4.42%，30年期美债收益率 攀升4BPs至4.96%。2年期美债 与10年期美债收益率小幅走阔2BPs至51BPs。 此外，美联储偏爱的通胀指标，个人消费支出指数将于周四公布，届时将揭示关税对通胀的影响。据FactSet预计，6月份的报告将显 示，通胀率同比将从2.3%升至2.4%，环比将从0.14%升至0.31%。 据外媒报道，美联储可能会在本周政策会议上维持利率不变，但可能会有一位到两位美联储理事表达反对意见，支持降息。不过大多数 美联储政策制定者仍然担心，特朗普关税可能会抵消通胀率回归央行2%目标位的进展，目前对这点的担忧超过了对劳动力市场的担忧。 特朗普此前再次呼吁美联储降息，称这将有助于推动美国经济。 美国财政部周一（7月27日）宣布将三季度（7月至9月）联邦 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that optimism regarding trade agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, leading to a downward trend in gold prices [1] - Gold prices experienced a decline, reaching a low of approximately $3350 before rebounding slightly to close at $3367, marking two consecutive days of losses [1] - The unexpected improvement in the US labor market data has further strengthened the US dollar and US Treasury yields, exerting significant downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, likely trading within the range of $3390 to $3340, with key levels to watch being $3380 and $3350 [2] - The market is advised to adopt a cautious approach ahead of major upcoming events, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the expiration of US tariff policies, suggesting a preference for reduced trading activity [2] - A specific trading strategy is recommended, suggesting to short gold at $3362-$3363 with a stop loss at $3370 and a target of $3340 [3]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% for the fourth consecutive time since the end of 2024, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [3][4] - The U.S. economy has shown resilience with a projected GDP growth rate of approximately 2.8% for 2024, despite challenges, and the unemployment rate remained low at 4.2% in December 2024 [4][5] - Inflation remains a concern, with the core PCE price index dropping to 2.1% in early 2024 but rebounding to 2.8% by May 2025, prompting the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach [4][5] Monetary Policy Dynamics - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on maximizing employment and maintaining price stability, leading to a shift from aggressive rate hikes to a more cautious stance [5] - Following a series of rate increases from near-zero to a peak of 5.33%, the Fed has since implemented three rate cuts in 2024, bringing the current rate to 4.25% to 4.5% [5] - Economic forecasts for 2025 indicate a GDP growth adjustment from 1.7% to 1.4% and a slight rise in unemployment to 4.5%, highlighting the need for careful policy balancing [5][6] External Influences - Global economic uncertainties, particularly changes in trade policies and tariffs, have impacted the Fed's decision-making process, necessitating a cautious approach to rate adjustments [6] - The Fed's policy contrasts with other central banks, which have initiated rate cuts, reflecting the relative strength of the U.S. economy and the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [6] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision on June 18, 2025, U.S. stock markets reacted moderately, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.2% and the S&P 500 slightly declining by 0.03% [7] - Market expectations suggest two potential rate cuts in 2025, with probabilities of maintaining rates in July at 89% and a 61% chance of a cut in September [7] Impact on Consumers - The current interest rate environment, while lower than 2023 peaks, remains high, affecting borrowing costs for consumers, particularly in housing and auto loans [8] - The average 30-year mortgage rate stood at approximately 6.7% in March 2025, significantly higher than 3.0% in 2021, leading to reduced demand in the housing market [8] - High interest rates benefit savers with yields above 4% on high-yield savings accounts, but potential future rate cuts may compress these returns [8] Future Outlook - The Fed's cautious stance is expected to continue into the latter half of 2025, with core inflation projected to rise to 3.1% and unemployment slightly increasing [9] - The Fed's policy will remain flexible, adapting to economic data and external factors, including geopolitical risks and climate change [9]

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, reaching a high of $3,400 before retreating to around $3,384, demonstrating resilience amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, which has intensified over the past five days [1] - Despite the upward momentum, gold prices faced pressure from a 0.7% increase in the US dollar index and cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] Technical Analysis - On the previous trading day, gold maintained a narrow trading range between $3,366 and $3,403, with a notable rebound after hitting a low of $3,366, closing at $3,387, forming a doji candlestick pattern indicating a fierce market battle between bulls and bears [3] - The four-hour analysis shows gold initially declined to $3,370.4 before rebounding to around $3,400, currently trading near $3,382, with bearish indicators suggesting a preference for short positions [3] - Recommendations for trading include selling near $3,400-$3,403 with a stop loss at $3,408 and a target of $3,380-$3,370, as well as buying near $3,363-$3,366 with a stop loss at $3,358 and a target of $3,380 [5]

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Geopolitical risks are supporting gold prices due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, with the U.S. increasing military presence in the region, raising concerns about further conflict escalation [3] - The U.S. dollar strengthened significantly, with the index rising 0.7% to 98.83, while U.S. retail sales data showed a larger-than-expected decline of 0.9% in May, indicating consumer caution amid trade uncertainties [4] - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations that the policy rate will remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, despite calls from President Trump for a one percentage point cut [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices are in a state of indecision after a significant drop, closing with a doji candlestick, indicating a search for balance between buyers and sellers [6] - The four-hour chart shows gold prices in an ascending wedge pattern, with key support at 3470/3463; a break below this level could signal a potential downward trend [9] - Resistance levels to watch include 3396 and 3420, with a breakthrough at 3396 potentially providing bullish momentum for gold prices [9]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 98.28, while spot silver opened at $36.34/oz and is currently around $36.21/oz, indicating a slight decline [1] - Market focus this week includes retail sales, import and export prices, industrial and manufacturing production, commercial inventories, NAHB housing market index, and API weekly report on US crude oil supply [1] - Last week, the dollar index remained flat at 0.00%, closing at 98.14, while spot silver closed at $36.30/oz, up 0.03% [1] Group 2 - The "Nimitz" aircraft carrier is heading to the Middle East, with a significant number of refueling aircraft moving to Europe, providing options for President Trump [2] - Reports indicate that Iran is seeking talks with the US and Israel to end hostilities, while Netanyahu does not rule out the possibility of assassinating Khamenei [2] - Trump stated that Iran wants to reach an agreement and criticized Iran's refusal to sign an agreement with Israel as foolish [2] Group 3 - Market participants remain cautious regarding Middle Eastern conflicts and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, leading to a slight pullback in gold prices below $3,400 per ounce [3] - Silver prices are fluctuating slightly above the $36.00 per ounce mark following a minor correction last Friday [3] Group 4 - Upcoming events include the announcement of domestic refined oil price adjustments and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [4] - The IEA will release its monthly oil market report, and Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for June will be published [4][5]