美国国债收益率和美元大幅波动，因12月份新增就业人数低于预期，但失业率下降，而这种情况可能使 美联储在一段时间内按兵不动。12月就业人数增加50,000人，低于《华尔街日报》(WSJ)调查的73,000 人的平均预期。11月份的数据从64,000人下修至56,000人。失业率从向下修正后的4.5%降至4.4%，略低 于预期。这是1月28日美联储做出利率决定前的最后一份就业报告。消息公布后，收益率和美元跳涨， 但此后有所回落。10年期美国国债收益率为4.173%，两年期美国国债收益率为3.509%。华尔街日报美 元指数上涨0.1%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

报道称，戴蒙表示，哈塞特是短期内更有可能降息的人选。报道还说，他是周四晚间在纽约举行的该行 资产管理首席执行官私人会议上说这番话的。 摩根大通没有立即回应路透的置评请求。 特朗普一直批评美联储及其主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）没有大幅降息。 来源：环球市场播报 北京时间12月13日早间消息，摩根大通CEO戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）表示支持前美联储理事凯文-沃什 （Kevin Warsh）出任美联储下一任主席。 当天早些时候，美国总统特朗普（Donald Trump）表示，他倾向于让沃什或国家经济委员会主任凯文- 哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）在明年领导美联储。 在一次单独的椭圆形办公室活动中，当记者问及他是否应该对美联储的利率决定拥有发言权时，特朗普 说，至少应该征求他的意见。 美联储周三将利率 ，降幅为四分之一个百分点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold has been experiencing high-level consolidation after encountering resistance, with market participants cautiously awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is expected to be a 25 basis point cut [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold's price has been fluctuating between support levels of $4170 and $4150, and resistance levels of $4220 and $4260 [1][4] - The market sentiment is influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which has limited the short-term downside for gold prices [2][4] - Recent trading sessions have shown a pattern of resistance at $4220, with gold prices stabilizing around $4200 at the close [1][2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that gold remains in a consolidation phase, with slight bearish signals from the 5-day moving average, MACD, RSI, and KDJ indicators [4] - The market is currently in a cautious wait-and-see mode ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, maintaining a high-level consolidation [4]

来源：滚动播报 在美联储利率决定于格林威治时间1900公布前，欧元计价信用债的违约保护成本小幅上升。市场价格反 映出美联储在周三利率决定中降息的可能性为89%，但投资者不确定决策者将暗示未来以何种速度降 息。Capital.com的Daniela Hathorn在一份报告中说："市场将希望了解成员认为2026年12月的利率水平将 在哪里。"标普全球市场财智的数据显示，iTraxx Europe Crossover欧元高收益信用违约掉期指数上升1 个基点，至256个基点。iTraxx Europe Senior Financials欧元投资级信用违约掉期指数上升1个基点，至57 个基点。 ...

Core Insights - US Treasury yields have risen to their highest level in over two months, driven by a decline in global government bond markets as investors prepare for three upcoming US bond auctions and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week [1] Group 1: Treasury Auctions - The Treasury is set to issue $58 billion in 3-year notes at 1 PM New York time, followed by $39 billion in 10-year notes on Tuesday and $22 billion in 30-year notes on Thursday [1] - The Treasury has adjusted this week's auction schedule to align with the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Overall Treasury yields have increased by 3 to 6 basis points, with mid-term bonds showing the weakest performance [1] - Traders believe there is about a 90% probability that the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time [1] - Market participants are expected to interpret the "dot plot" for insights into officials' outlook for 2026 amid persistently high inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury yields have risen during the Asian trading session, with the market awaiting new data following the Thanksgiving holiday and a shortened trading day last week [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The market is closely monitoring upcoming data releases, particularly the ISM manufacturing index for November [1] - Analysts suggest that the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions is influencing market behavior [1] Group 2: Yield Changes - The two-year US Treasury yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 3.495% [1] - The ten-year US Treasury yield rose by 2.1 basis points to 4.039% [1] Group 3: Political Factors - Market participants are particularly attentive to any news regarding President Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve chair [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have declined in early Asian trading, retreating from record highs due to market concerns over supply disruptions [1] Group 1: Market Trends - LME three-month copper contracts fell by 1.0% to $11,071.00 per ton [1] - The market is closely analyzing the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision, which typically influences metal prices positively [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - Optimism regarding a potential trade agreement has been a key factor driving recent copper price increases [1] - Positive demand outlook and supply issues have been impacting price trends, although there are concerns that these disruptions may undermine confidence in the expected outcomes of developing projects [1]

Group 1 - The three-month copper futures on the LME reached a record high of $11,146 per ton, closing at $11,094.5 per ton [2] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve, which is influencing market sentiment [3] - Easing trade tensions have improved investor expectations regarding future demand for copper [3] Group 2 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [3] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" has been jointly compiled by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network and copper industry enterprises [3]

Group 1 - The July employment report in the U.S. was unexpectedly weak, raising concerns among Federal Reserve officials about the economic outlook [1] - Non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, while June's data was revised down from over 200,000 to just 14,000 [1] - Despite the disappointing employment data, the labor market is still considered "healthy" by some officials, with the unemployment rate remaining within a normal range over the past year [2] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector also showed signs of weakness, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) falling from 49.0 in June to 48.0 in July, indicating continued contraction for the fifth consecutive month [1] - Federal Reserve officials are cautious about predicting further rate cuts in 2025, emphasizing the need for businesses to adjust pricing strategies in the current complex economic environment [1] - There are notable divisions among policymakers regarding the economic situation, reflecting the complexity of the current period [3]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon suggests that the Federal Reserve should be more cautious regarding interest rate decisions [1] Group 1 - Dimon emphasizes the importance of careful consideration in the context of the current economic environment [1] - The statement reflects concerns about the potential impact of interest rate changes on the economy [1]