Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for both short-term and mid-term performance [8][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in total credit, with a net decrease of 50 billion yuan in July, marking the first negative monthly growth since data collection began. This is attributed to seasonal factors and a weaker overall demand for credit [1][2]. - Non-bank deposits saw a substantial increase of 2.14 trillion yuan in July, suggesting a shift of household savings into capital markets, as evidenced by a corresponding decrease in household deposits [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that the current banking sector is experiencing a liquidity shift, with a potential migration of deposits into capital markets due to lower deposit rates and higher expected returns from equities [4][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - July's financial data aligns with previous forecasts, showing a slight underperformance in credit growth and an upward trend in M1 and M2 growth rates [1]. - The total credit for July was negative 500 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan, indicating a seasonal dip in credit demand [1][2]. Credit and Deposits Analysis - The report notes that the outstanding loans due within one year for listed banks amount to 65.6 trillion yuan, representing 37.2% of the total loans as of the end of 2024 [2]. - The increase in non-bank deposits by 2.14 trillion yuan in July contrasts with a decrease in household deposits by 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating a potential trend of capital market investment [2][3]. Market Liquidity and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the liquidity in the banking sector may face instability due to the shift towards shorter-term deposits and increased investment in capital markets [8]. - It is recommended that investors adopt a rational approach to the current market conditions, as the potential for volatility exists due to the migration of deposits into equities [10]. Long-term Outlook - The report anticipates that the banking sector will continue to benefit from structural fiscal spending, which is expected to support long-term demand and supply dynamics [10]. - The banking sector is viewed as a high-quality asset class, with expected annualized returns surpassing the overall market, making it an attractive investment opportunity for long-term investors [10].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 林颖颖 A0230522070004 linyy@swsresearch.com 冯思远 A0230522090005 fengsy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 李禹昊 A0230123070008 liyh2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李禹昊 (8621)23297818× liyh2@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 05 月 15 日 信贷小月预期内回落，低基数下 M2 提速 看好 ——2025 年 4 月金融数据点评 事件：据中国人民银行披露，2025 年 4 月新增社融约 1.16 万亿，同比多增 1.22 万亿，存 量社融同比增长 8.7%，增速环比提升 0.3pct；4 月新增信贷 2800 亿，同比少增 4500 亿。 M1 同比增长 1.5%，增速环比下降 0.1pct；M2 同比增长 8.0%，增速环比回升 1pct。 请务必仔细阅 ...