对话 2026 年关键词：金融地产篇 20251224 摘要 非银金融板块，尤其是线上保险和券商，在未来一年内相较于银行更具 增长潜力。线上保险受益于权益仓位占比提升，若股市走牛，投资端收 益将显著增强；居民资产配置调整也利好保险的稳健收益产品。 保险公司 H 股修复明显，A 股滞后，预计 2026 年基本面将进一步改善。 险种结构优化，新险种如商保、医保数据探索和分红型重疾险有望带来 增量，同时报行合一推进提升保单利润率。 券商在跨年行情中表现良好，春季躁动期间胜率高。尽管今年 A 股券商 表现不佳，但业绩持续释放和市场活跃度提升未充分定价，使其具备超 额收益潜力。 2026 年银行业策略关注息差和资产增速。房地产政策影响下，银行量 价将呈现均衡格局，息差成为核心营收增长关键。贷款定价有望触底回 升，存款利率调降推动息差 L 型筑底。 预计 2026 年信贷增量持平或略低于 2025 年，社融增速和信贷增速剪 刀差延续。存款利率下行，信贷扩张放缓，存贷增速维持紧平衡。核心 营收预计小幅增长，非息收入是关键扰动因素。 Q&A 2026 年金融板块的投资机会和风险如何？ 在 2026 年，金融板块可能成为推动指 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for both short-term and mid-term performance [8][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in total credit, with a net decrease of 50 billion yuan in July, marking the first negative monthly growth since data collection began. This is attributed to seasonal factors and a weaker overall demand for credit [1][2]. - Non-bank deposits saw a substantial increase of 2.14 trillion yuan in July, suggesting a shift of household savings into capital markets, as evidenced by a corresponding decrease in household deposits [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that the current banking sector is experiencing a liquidity shift, with a potential migration of deposits into capital markets due to lower deposit rates and higher expected returns from equities [4][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - July's financial data aligns with previous forecasts, showing a slight underperformance in credit growth and an upward trend in M1 and M2 growth rates [1]. - The total credit for July was negative 500 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan, indicating a seasonal dip in credit demand [1][2]. Credit and Deposits Analysis - The report notes that the outstanding loans due within one year for listed banks amount to 65.6 trillion yuan, representing 37.2% of the total loans as of the end of 2024 [2]. - The increase in non-bank deposits by 2.14 trillion yuan in July contrasts with a decrease in household deposits by 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating a potential trend of capital market investment [2][3]. Market Liquidity and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the liquidity in the banking sector may face instability due to the shift towards shorter-term deposits and increased investment in capital markets [8]. - It is recommended that investors adopt a rational approach to the current market conditions, as the potential for volatility exists due to the migration of deposits into equities [10]. Long-term Outlook - The report anticipates that the banking sector will continue to benefit from structural fiscal spending, which is expected to support long-term demand and supply dynamics [10]. - The banking sector is viewed as a high-quality asset class, with expected annualized returns surpassing the overall market, making it an attractive investment opportunity for long-term investors [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [25]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that in April 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to approximately 1.16 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 1.22 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [3][4]. - The report anticipates that credit growth will remain stable throughout 2025, with an estimated annual credit increment of around 18.1 trillion yuan, leading to a credit growth rate of approximately 7.1% [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government bonds as a primary support for social financing, with government bond issuance in April reaching about 972.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.07 trillion yuan [4][10]. Summary by Sections Credit Market Analysis - In April, new credit was 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, attributed to the seasonal nature of credit in this period and the impact of debt replacement [4]. - Corporate loans saw a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2.5 trillion yuan, reflecting weak demand in the corporate sector [4][15]. - Retail credit demand remains under pressure, with a net decrease of 521.6 billion yuan in household loans, indicating a lack of sustained momentum in the housing market [4][18]. Monetary Supply - M1 increased by 1.5% year-on-year, while M2 grew by 8.0%, showing a rebound in growth rates [8][4]. - The report notes that the decline in deposits was significant, with a net decrease of 440 billion yuan in April, reflecting a shift in risk preferences among investors [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that bank stocks are attractive in both counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical contexts, with high dividend yields becoming increasingly appealing [4]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include Agricultural Bank of China (A+H), Chongqing Bank, and Suzhou Bank, among others, due to their solid provisioning and growth potential under favorable policies [4].