固定收益月报 货币增强新方向与两会前后日历效应 核心结论二：回顾临近两会的日历效应，春节至两会期间通常在信贷发力、 政策预期升温等因素影响下为传统的债市调整窗口；两会期间市场多进入震 荡；两会结束后至4月政治局会议通常为经济数据验证期，叠加信贷"开门红" 结束后配债力量回归，债市通常走强。但仍需注意在流动性收紧（2025）、 极致资产荒（2024）等影响下，日历效应可能失效，需以当年宏观主线为准。 今年两会需重点关注：财政与地产政策预期差、宽货币预期的再校准、银行 季末负债稳定性与配债持续性。 3月展望：央行公开市场投放或将继续保持积极，利率高位磨顶阶段建议逢调 整适度拉长久期。 资金面看，2月资金利率低位运行，央行月内重启14D逆回购、全月公开市场 操作净投放近8000亿元，全月银行体系资金面合理充裕、大型银行资金融出 量保持高位；预计在"财政金融协同支持扩内需"与"引导短期货币市场利 率更好围绕央行政策利率平稳运行"的政策指引下央行公开市场投放或继续 保持积极，资金利率将保持低位运行。此外，考虑到当前多只30Y老券税后 利率超过了个人住房贷款利率的税后值，30Y-10Y国债利差向上逼近50BP， 超长债性 ...

随着年后"返工潮"开启，银行理财也马不停蹄地"开工"了。 《国际金融报》记者注意到，截至2月26日，已有超10家银行理财机构密集推出"开工理财"攻略。 从各家机构推荐的产品类型来看，低波稳健型的理财产品仍是主流，投资门槛也明显降低，多只"1元起 购"的产品出现在机构榜单中。此外，春节后也成为多家机构推荐新品的重要窗口期。 受访专家指出，理财机构通过推出低波动、求稳型产品，旨在提升客户黏性、强化品牌渗透，并满足不 同风险偏好投资者的多元化配置需求。结合资金面来看，当前理财市场正迎来资金配置的"黄金窗口 期"。展望后市，理财市场有望持续回暖。 机构抢客"开工理财" 春节假期结束，投资者的年终奖、压岁钱、到期存款等大笔资金如何配置？ 从风险等级来看，除了少量产品触及R3（中风险）等级外，R1（低风险）及R2（中低风险）仍是机 构"抢客"的重要发力点。从展示的产品收益情况来看，多数产品成立以来年化收益率在1.5%至3.5%区 间。 近日，《国际金融报》记者注意到，工银理财、招银理财、北银理财等理财公司，以及多家代销理财产 品的中小银行纷纷瞄准节后资金配置需求，向投资者抛出"开工理财"的橄榄枝。 从推文内容来看，机构大 ...

2026年2月25日，Wind数据显示，A股三大指数今日集体上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨0.72%；深证成指涨1.29%；创业板指涨1.41%。沪深京三市成交额达到 24812亿，较昨日放量2628亿。 涨幅方面，稀土与稀有金属板块强势领涨，巴西ETF单日涨超7% | | | ETF涨幅 TOP10 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | | 涨幅(%) 基金管理人 | 投资类 | | 520870 | 巴西ETF易方达 | 7.26 | 易方达基金 | QDll股票型 | | 159715 | 稀土ETF易方达 | 6.25 | 易方达基金 | 被动指数型 | | 159713 | 稀土ETF | 6.12 | 富国産尖 | 被动指数型 | | 516780 | 稀土ETF | 6.08 | 华泰柏瑞基金 | 被动指数型 | | 216150 | 稀土ETF嘉实 | 6.07 | 嘉实基金 | 被动指数型 | | 159608 | 稀有金属ETF | 5.74 | 广发基金 | 被动指数型 | | 562800 | 稀有金属ETF | 5.68 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2026 年 02 月 24 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（2.9-2.13） 春季配置需求回归，债券 ETF 有望扩张 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 联系人：李茂怡 电话：15528164673 邮箱：limaoyi@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 各类债券 ETF资金净流入情况：市场情绪偏多，债券 ETF净流入金额转正。 上周利率债类 ETF、信用债类 ETF、可转债类 ETF净流入资金分别+50.98亿 元、+142.12亿元、+5.87亿元，债券 ETF市场合计净流入金额 198.96亿元。 展望后市，债券 ETF 规模在经历年初季节性资金流出后，有望随机构春季配 置需求的回归以及"两会"定调的关键政策重回扩张通道。品种上 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering the 4100-point mark, closing up 1.41% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 106.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] ETF Performance - The film and AI ETFs led the market with significant gains, with the Guotai Film ETF (516620) surging 7.50% and the Huazhang AI ETF (159279) rising 6.98% [2] - Other AI-related ETFs also performed well, with several exceeding a 6.50% increase, indicating strong investor interest in AI applications and computing infrastructure [2] - The new energy sector also showed positive movement, with the Invesco Battery ETF (159757) up 2.20% and the Fortune Lithium Battery ETF (561160) rising 2.12% [2] ETF Declines - Commodity and bond ETFs experienced slight adjustments, with the maximum decline being less than 0.1%, indicating a stable market environment [3][4] Trading Activity - The Short-term Bond ETF (211360) had a trading volume of 52.734 billion yuan, leading the market, followed by the Yin Hua Daily ETF (211880) at 17.104 billion yuan [5][7] - The Huaxia Brazil ETF (159100) had a turnover rate of 211.93%, reflecting a high level of speculative trading in cross-border products [6][7] New ETF Launch - The E Fund Shanghai Composite Index ETF (530060) is set to launch on February 10, 2026, with 321 million shares issued, tracking the overall performance of stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [8]

风险提示：市场大幅波动风险、样本数据遗漏风险、统计出现偏差风险等。 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 联系人：李茂怡 电话：15528164673 邮箱：limaoyi@swsc.com.cn [Table_ReportInfo] 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（1.26-1.30） 科创债 ETF：久期为何集体回撤 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况：净流出幅度进一步收窄，资金面有望回归常 态。上周利率债类 ETF、信用债类 ETF、可转债类 ETF净流入资金分别-27.54 亿元、-68.90亿元、+43.95亿元，债券 ETF市场合计净流入金额-52.49亿元。 整体来看，上周债券 ETF资金流入结构延续前周，利率、信用债类 ETF净流 出压 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the latest trends in FOF (Fund of Funds) investments, indicating a preference for low-risk products and a strategic shift from gold ETFs to gold stock ETFs amidst rising international gold prices [1][4]. Group 1: FOF Investment Trends - In Q4 2025, FOFs favored low-risk products, with short-term bond ETFs being the most heavily weighted, particularly the Hai Fu Tong Short Bond ETF, held by 95 FOFs with a total market value of approximately 4.17 billion [3]. - The Guotai Li Xiang Medium and Short Bond C fund saw significant increases in holdings, with a quarterly change of about 1.49 billion shares, indicating a strategic shift in FOF allocations [3]. Group 2: Gold Investment Strategy - Despite rising international gold prices, FOFs reduced their holdings in gold ETFs, with a total reduction of 40.68 million shares in the Huaan Gold ETF alone, while simultaneously increasing their investments in gold stock ETFs [4][5]. - The increase in gold stock ETFs was notable, with FOFs adding 50.74 million shares in Yongying Gold Stock ETF and 24.03 million shares in Huaxia Gold Stock ETF, reflecting a shift in strategy towards higher potential returns in gold equities [4][5]. Group 3: FOF Market Growth - The overall scale of FOFs has surpassed 250 billion, driven by strong support from banking channels such as China Merchants Bank and China Construction Bank, which have launched successful asset allocation programs [2][7]. - As of the end of 2025, the total scale of FOFs reached 252.11 billion, marking a significant milestone in the market [7].

Group 1 - Leading private equity firms are increasing their positions, with stock private equity positions rising above 81% as of January 9, 2026, marking an increase of over 1 percentage point from the end of 2025 [1] - The first week of 2026 saw a significant increase in positions among large private equity firms, with an average increase of nearly 8 percentage points [1] - The capital market is expected to continue its structural trends in 2026, driven by reduced external uncertainties, low interest rates, and solidifying corporate earnings [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has seen a significant reduction in the total shares of major broad-based ETFs, indicating a major reallocation by the "national team" [2] - The latest public fund quarterly reports confirm that major ETFs like Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and Huaxia SSE 50 ETF have seen their total shares drop below the holdings of the central financial authority [2] Group 3 - Over 50 biopharmaceutical companies have released performance forecasts for 2025, with nearly half indicating positive expectations [3] - Leading CXO companies, such as WuXi AppTec, are projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with an expected revenue of approximately 45.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 15.84% [3] - The biopharmaceutical industry is anticipated to enter a new phase of high-quality development in 2026, supported by ongoing policy and financing improvements [3] Group 4 - The gold jewelry market is experiencing a shift from weight-based pricing to value-based pricing, with brands introducing fixed-price products that appeal to younger consumers [4] - Upstream companies are benefiting from rising gold prices, which are expected to enhance profitability [4] Group 5 - The commercial space sector in China is entering a new phase focused on large-scale launches and commercial viability, with significant advancements expected in the next 3 to 5 years [5] - In 2025, China's commercial space sector completed 50 launches, accounting for 54% of total space launches, indicating a rapid acceleration in commercialization [5] Group 6 - The domestic GPU manufacturer, Shanghai Suiruan Technology, has received approval for its IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to raise 6 billion yuan [6] - The company is part of a growing trend of domestic tech firms seeking public funding to support their growth [6]

Market Overview - On January 13, A-shares experienced a collective pullback, with the ChiNext Index dropping nearly 2% and over 900 out of 1300 ETFs declining [1] - Despite the overall market downturn, ETFs focused on defensive sectors such as electric grid, oil and gas, gold, and pharmaceuticals saw gains, with several products rising over 2% [1] ETF Performance - The Electric Grid ETF (561380) led the market with a 7.37% increase, experiencing a significant surge in the last four minutes before closing [2][4] - The AI-focused ETF Morgan (588420), which had performed well previously, saw a sharp decline of over 11% today, marking the largest drop in the market [2][7] Fund Flows - The overall net inflow into the ETF market was approximately 1.157 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the 16.4 billion yuan net inflow on January 9 [3][9] - The Media ETF (512980) attracted the highest net inflow of 2.327 billion yuan, contributing to a total of over 3 billion yuan in net inflows this year [3][10] Sector Analysis - ETFs targeting the electric grid, oil and gas, and gold sectors showed resilience, with all ETFs in these categories posting gains [4][5] - The Medical ETF focusing on Hong Kong stocks and innovative drugs also performed well, with the Hong Kong Medical ETF (159137) rising by 3.44% [5][6] Notable Declines - Several ETFs in the AI and aerospace sectors faced significant declines, with nine out of the top ten ETFs by drop percentage being aerospace-related [7] - The AI ETF Morgan experienced a drastic increase in turnover rate, indicating high trading activity amid its price drop [7] Non-Equity ETF Trends - Non-equity ETFs, including money market and bond funds, faced substantial net outflows, with some experiencing over 10 billion yuan in outflows this year [11][12] Industry Insights - The aviation sector is viewed as having significant long-term growth potential, supported by policy backing and industry acceleration [13] - The semiconductor sector is experiencing short-term volatility but is expected to maintain a positive long-term outlook due to strong demand and supportive policies [13] ETF Market Milestone - Huaxia Fund became the first public fund company in China to have an ETF management scale surpassing 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1.016424 trillion yuan as of January 12 [14]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the bond ETFs, focusing on the capital outflow and duration decline of credit - type ETFs. It analyzes the capital flow, net value performance, and duration of different types of bond ETFs [1][5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Capital Flow - As of January 9, 2026, bond - type ETFs had a total net outflow of 64.352 billion yuan in the past week. Interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond - type ETFs had a net outflow of 10.454 billion yuan, 59.224 billion yuan, and a net inflow of 5.325 billion yuan respectively. Among credit - type ETFs, short - term financing bonds, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had a net outflow of 8.394 billion yuan, a net inflow of 0.242 billion yuan, and a net outflow of 0.006 billion yuan respectively. Market - making credit bonds and science and technology innovation bonds had a net outflow of 7.071 billion yuan and 43.995 billion yuan respectively. Since 2025, interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond ETFs had cumulative net inflows of 65.923 billion yuan, 501.041 billion yuan, and 23.151 billion yuan respectively, with a total of 590.115 billion yuan [5]. Net Value Performance - Throughout the week, the net value trends of different types of bond ETF products were divergent. As of January 9, 2026, the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Boshi performed weakly, with a weekly decline of 1.05%. The 0 - 4 Local Bond ETF rose 0.04%, and the 5 - year Local Bond ETF rose 0.01%. The Convertible Bond ETF and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond ETF rose 4.30% and 3.39% respectively last week [6]. Performance of Credit Bond ETF and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF - As of January 9, 2026, the median unit net values of credit bond ETF and science and technology innovation bond ETF were 1.0119 and 1.0003 respectively, with a weekly decline of 0.01% each. Among credit bond ETFs, the Haifutong Credit Bond ETF performed relatively well, with a weekly decline of 0.01%. Among science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Yin Hua and the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Wan Jia performed relatively well. The median discount rates of credit bond ETF and science and technology innovation bond ETF were 28BP and 22BP respectively [7]. Credit - type ETF Duration Tracking - As of January 9, 2026, the holding durations of short - term financing ETF, corporate bond ETF, and urban investment bond ETF were 0.36 years, 1.58 years, and 2.15 years respectively. Among market - making credit bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the Shanghai Market - making Corporate Bond Index and the Shenzhen Market - making Corporate Bond Index were 3.59 years and 2.81 years respectively. Among science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index, the Shanghai AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index, and the Shenzhen AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index were 3.32 years, 3.26 years, and 3.17 years respectively [10].