Group 1 - The report emphasizes a defensive strategy in a volatile market, with a preference for short-duration products, as evidenced by the net inflows into various bond ETFs [2][5][6] - Last week, the net inflows for interest rate bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs were -1.457 billion, 5.023 billion, and -2.241 billion respectively, leading to a total net inflow of 1.325 billion for bond ETFs [5][6] - The total scale of bond ETFs reached 725.34 billion as of March 20, 2026, reflecting a decrease of 0.10% from the previous week and a 12.53% decline since the beginning of the year [5][6] Group 2 - Short-term products, such as short-term financing and urban investment bond ETFs, have seen significant net inflows of 5.230 billion and 1.537 billion respectively, indicating a strong market preference for these assets [6][7] - The report forecasts a gradual increase in government bond supply due to a positive fiscal policy stance for 2026, while the pace of interest rate cuts may be delayed due to inflation concerns and strong economic data from early 2026 [7] - Caution is advised regarding the accumulation of long-duration products, with a focus on defensive products that offer stable coupon yields and liquidity advantages [7] Group 3 - The report notes that the net inflow of short-duration products is driven by a "deposit substitution" effect due to stricter self-discipline in interbank interest rates [6][7] - The net outflows from convertible bond ETFs were significant, totaling -2.241 billion, as the equity market showed no clear signs of reversal [6][7] - The report highlights that the recent adjustments in the PCF list for credit bond ETFs indicate a focus on bonds with shorter durations, with average modified durations of 3.03 years and 3.84 years for newly added bonds [6][7][46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term bond ETFs are still constrained by the stock market. The net inflow of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs last week was -3.293 billion yuan, -6.21 billion yuan, and +930 million yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of -8.573 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. The strong performance of the A - share market after the Spring Festival and the real - estate policy in Shanghai have affected the bond market sentiment [2][5]. - In the future, the fundamental repair expectations and allocation needs of interest - rate and credit - bond ETFs resonate. Long - end varieties have gaming value before the Two Sessions. The underlying assets of interest - rate and credit - bond ETFs have limited downside space, and the market is expected to continue the trading - style market before the policy implementation of the Two Sessions [2][15]. - For convertible - bond ETFs, the bull market in the equity market drives valuation expansion. Due to policy dividends in 2026, the net value of convertible - bond ETFs may still have room to rise. Given the limitations in individual bond selection, convertible - bond ETFs have higher tool - based allocation cost - effectiveness [2][15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Various Bond ETF Fund Inflow Situations - The net inflow of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs last week was -3.293 billion yuan, -6.21 billion yuan, and +930 million yuan respectively. The total net inflow of the bond ETF market was -8.573 billion yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 7.818 billion yuan this month and -100.529 billion yuan this year. The bond ETF fund scale was 734.641 billion yuan as of February 27, 2026, down 1.25% from the previous week's close and 11.41% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 13.64% of the total market ETF scale, a decrease of 23bp from the previous weekend [5]. - After the Spring Festival, funds flowed out of short - term financing ETFs. The net inflow of convertible - bond ETFs led last week, while short - term financing ETFs had a net outflow of 2.938 billion yuan, and科创债 ETFs and treasury - bond ETFs also had relatively large net outflows [6]. 3.2 Share and Net Value Trends of Various Bond ETFs and Representative Products - As of February 27, 2026, the shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial - bond, local - bond, benchmark - market - making credit - bond,科创债, corporate - bond, short - term - financing, urban - investment - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs were 646.59 million shares, 350.39 million shares, 159.41 million shares, 1.02384 billion shares, 2.72782 billion shares, 334.91 million shares, 682.84 million shares, 3.05238 billion shares, and 5.50985 billion shares respectively, with changes of -2.7%, -3.5%, +0.3%, -0.4%, -1.1%, +0.2%, -3.7%, 0.0%, and +1.2% compared to February 13, 2026, and changes of +3.5%, +3.8%, +0.9%, -3.0%, -4.4%, +4.8%, +18.9%, +9.2%, and +3.5% compared to the end of last month [22]. - The net value of the 30 - year treasury - bond ETF led the decline among major bond ETFs. As of February 27, 2026, the net values of the 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial - bond ETF, 0 - 4 - year local - bond ETF, corporate - bond ETF, short - term - financing ETF Haifutong, urban - investment - bond ETF Haifutong, and convertible - bond ETF Boshi were 1.2244 yuan, 1.1566 yuan, 1.1651 yuan, 1.1960 yuan, 1.1309 yuan, 1.4445 yuan, and 1.4570 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.62%, -0.11%, 0.03%, 0.03%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and -0.23% compared to February 27, 2026, and changes of 0.16%, 0.33%, 0.10%, 0.13%, 0.12%, 0.16%, and 0.80% compared to the end of last month [25]. 3.3 Share and Net Value Trends of Each Benchmark - Market - Making Credit - Bond ETF - The shares of existing credit - bond ETFs fluctuated slightly, with E Fund and Boshi achieving reverse growth in shares. As of February 27, 2026, the shares of 8 credit - bond ETFs were 103.46 million shares, 88.41 million shares, 106.54 million shares, 96.47 million shares, 174.83 million shares, 216.90 million shares, 92.90 million shares, and 144.32 million shares respectively, with changes of 0.00%, 2.31%, -1.84%, 0.00%, -1.13%, 0.60%, -2.11%, and -0.69% compared to February 13, 2026 [29]. - The net value continued to rise, with Dacheng, Southern, and Haifutong leading the increase. As of February 27, 2026, the net values of 8 credit - bond ETFs were 1.0193, 1.0185, 1.0170, 1.0173, 1.0123, 1.0153, 1.0163, and 1.0153 respectively, with changes of 0.03%, 0.04%, 0.03%, 0.04%, 0.03%, 0.02%, 0.04%, and 0.02% compared to February 13, 2026, and changes of 0.21%, 0.19%, 0.20%, 0.17%, 0.21%, 0.18%, 0.21%, and 0.20% compared to the end of last month [31]. 3.4 Share and Net Value Trends of Each 科创债 ETF - The shares of 科创债 ETFs decreased slightly overall, with Yongying achieving reverse capital absorption. The net inflow of shares last week was -31.73 million shares, a decrease of 1.15% from the previous week. As of February 27, 2026, the top - three products in terms of shares were 科创债 ETF Jiashi, 科创债 ETF Yinhua, and 科创债 ETF Penghua, with 221.81 million shares, 197.39 million shares, and 196.81 million shares respectively. 科创债 ETF Yinhua, 科创债 ETF Jiashi, and 科创债 ETF Zhaoshang had the top - three net outflows of shares, with 8.40 million shares, 7.63 million shares, and 7.00 million shares respectively. 科创债 ETF Yongying had the leading net inflow of shares (+4.60 million shares) [34]. - The net value continued to rise. As of February 27, 2026, the top - ranked products in terms of net value among 24 科创债 ETFs were 科创债 ETF Wanjia, 科创 ETF Huatai Bairui, and 科创债 ETF Yongying, with 1.0092, 1.0089, and 1.0088 respectively. The median net values of the first - batch and second - batch 科创债 ETFs last week were 1.0047 and 1.0073 respectively, up 0.03% and 0.02% from the previous week's close. The median net values of products tracking the CSI AAA 科创债, Shanghai AAA 科创债, and Shenzhen AAA 科创债 were 1.0068, 1.0051, and 1.0089 respectively, up 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.02% from the previous week's close [42]. 3.5 Market Performance of Single Bond ETFs Last Week - The net values of bond ETF products generally declined last week. The 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, 30 - year ETF Boshi, and convertible - bond ETF Haifutong led the decline, down 0.67%, 0.63%, and 0.47% respectively from the previous week. In terms of premium/discount rates, convertible - bond ETF Boshi, 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, and treasury - bond ETF Huaxia had the leading premium rates, at +0.05%, +0.02%, and +0.02% respectively. In terms of scale changes, 科创债 ETF Yongying (+464 million yuan), convertible - bond ETF Boshi (+586 million yuan), and convertible - bond ETF Haifutong (+344 million yuan) had the leading net inflows [45]. 3.6 Marginal Changes in the PCF Lists of Benchmark - Market - Making Credit - Bond and 科创债 ETFs - The estimated modified durations of benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs decreased across the board last week. The average modified duration of bonds listed in the PCF list of each bond ETF was used as the estimated modified duration of the ETF. Among products tracking the Shanghai - market - making 科创债 index, the average modified durations of newly added bonds in the PCF lists of corporate - bond ETF Southern and credit - bond ETF Haifutong were 6.10 years and 4.32 years respectively. There were no repeated inclusions or exclusions of bonds in the PCF lists of benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs last week [48]. - The estimated modified durations of 科创债 ETFs generally shortened last week, with 科创债 ETF Tianhong and 科创债 ETF Dacheng experiencing relatively large shortenings. The PCF lists of each 科创债 ETF were adjusted slightly last week. The modified durations of newly added bonds were generally between 2 - 5 years. Among the excluded bonds, the average modified durations of bonds excluded from the PCF lists of 科创债 ETF Southern and 科创债 ETF Tianhong, which track the CSI AAA 科创债 index, were significantly longer, at 5.71 years and 7.87 years respectively [51]. - Yongtongshang K1 was repeatedly excluded from the PCF lists of 科创债 ETFs last week due to its upcoming maturity. Bonds such as 26 Shudao K2, 26 Jieneng K1, and 26 Jieneng K2 were included in multiple 科创债 ETFs and are newly listed bonds [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The bond market was weak last week, leading to a double decline in the net value and share of bond ETFs. The market was affected by negative factors such as the rumored implementation of new public - offering sales regulations and Vanke's request for bond extension. In the short term, if the repair market continues, the bond ETF market is expected to gradually stabilize. Also, if the new regulations are implemented as per the draft, bond ETFs may attract some funds migrating from traditional bond funds [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1.1 Various Bond ETFs' Capital Inflow Situation - Last week, the net inflows of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were +3.09 billion yuan, - 4.50 billion yuan, and - 11.06 billion yuan respectively. The total net inflow of the bond ETF market was - 12.47 billion yuan. As of November 28, 2025, the bond ETF fund scale was 716.624 billion yuan, down 0.30% from the previous week and up 298.63% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 12.60% of the total market ETF scale [2][5]. - Short - term financing ETFs, treasury - bond ETFs, and science - innovation bond ETFs had the top three net inflows last week, while benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs had the largest net outflow of - 24.10 billion yuan [2][6]. 1.2 Various Bond ETFs' Share Trends - As of November 28, 2025, the shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial - bond, local - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs changed by 1.1%, - 1.2%, 1.2%, 0.0%, and - 1.6% respectively compared to November 21, 2025. The total share of bond - type ETFs changed by - 0.5% [18]. 1.3 Main Bond ETFs' Share and Net Value Trends - The shares of convertible - bond ETFs and 30 - year treasury - bond ETFs significantly decreased. As of November 28, 2025, compared to November 21, 2025, the shares of selected main bond ETFs changed by - 20.06 million shares, - 6.18 million shares, 0.15 million shares, 6.70 million shares, and - 113.10 million shares respectively [22]. - Due to the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations, the net values of main bond ETFs all declined. As of November 28, 2025, compared to November 21, 2025, the net values of selected main bond ETFs changed by - 0.66%, - 0.16%, - 0.05%, - 0.06%, and - 0.28% respectively [27]. 1.4 Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond ETFs' Share and Net Value Trends - Affected by the panic caused by Vanke's bond extension on November 26, 2025, the 8 existing benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs faced large redemption pressure. As of November 28, 2025, compared to November 21, 2025, the shares of these 8 ETFs changed by - 5.00 million shares, no change, - 7.20 million shares, no change, - 1.00 million shares, 4.20 million shares, - 2.00 million shares, and - 12.90 million shares respectively [29]. - The net values of these 8 ETFs all declined. As of November 28, 2025, compared to November 21, 2025, the net values changed by - 0.15%, - 0.11%, - 0.12%, - 0.13%, - 0.20%, - 0.19%, - 0.20%, and - 0.21% respectively [30]. 1.5 Science - Innovation Bond ETFs' Share and Net Value Trends - The overall share of science - innovation bond ETFs increased slightly last week. The net inflow of shares was 5.71 million shares, a 0.23% increase from the previous week. The top three products in terms of share inflow were Science - Innovation Bond ETF Fuguo, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Dacheng, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Taikang [35]. - The net values of science - innovation bond ETFs declined overall. The average net values of the first - batch and second - batch science - innovation bond ETFs decreased by 0.17% and 0.16% respectively compared to the previous week [37]. 1.6 Single Bond ETFs' Market Performance - Constrained by the weak bond market, the net values of bond ETFs generally declined. Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible - Bond ETF, 30 - Year Treasury - Bond ETF Boshi, and 30 - Year Treasury - Bond ETF had the largest declines, at - 0.77%, - 0.75%, and - 0.71% respectively [40]. - In terms of premium - discount rates, Benchmark Treasury - Bond ETF, 30 - Year Treasury - Bond ETF Boshi, and 30 - Year Treasury - Bond ETF had the highest premium rates. In terms of scale changes, Benchmark Treasury - Bond ETF, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Dacheng, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Fuguo had the top three net inflows [40].

Report Information - The report is a weekly fixed - income regular report on bond ETFs from November 3rd to November 7th, 2025, titled "Bond ETF Weekly Tracking (11.3 - 11.7): Market Net Inflow Growth Marginal Narrowing" [1] Core Viewpoint - The overall net inflow growth of the bond ETF market has narrowed marginally, with the increment mainly coming from interest - rate bond ETFs. The net inflow of convertible bond ETFs is negative [4][7] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Summary by Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 - The overall net inflow growth of bond ETFs has narrowed marginally, and the increment mainly comes from interest - rate bond ETFs. Last week, the net inflow funds of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs were 4.914 billion yuan, 1.394 billion yuan, and - 1.574 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of 4.734 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. As of November 7, 2025, the bond ETF fund scale was 70.6121 billion yuan, up 0.87% from the previous week's close and 292.79% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 12.28% of the total market ETF scale, up 1bp from the previous weekend [4][7] - Treasury bond ETFs led the net inflow, and the growth of short - term financing and local bond ETFs continued. Last week, treasury bond ETFs (+ 2.698 billion yuan), short - term financing ETFs (+ 2.553 billion yuan), and local bond ETFs (+ 2.223 billion yuan) ranked top three in net inflow amount. Convertible bond ETFs, science and technology innovation bond ETFs, and benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs had negative net inflows, with - 1.574 billion yuan, - 1.390 billion yuan, and - 0.515 billion yuan respectively [7] 1.2 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - The share inflows of interest - rate bond and credit bond ETFs improved marginally, and the local bond ETFs had a steep growth. As of the close on November 7, 2025, the shares of treasury bond, policy - financial bond, local bond, credit bond, and convertible bond ETFs were 683.88 million shares, 442.47 million shares, 127.08 million shares, 7185.08 million shares, and 4954.95 million shares respectively, with a total of 13393.45 million shares for bond - type ETFs. Compared with the close on October 31, 2025, they changed by 22.53 million shares, - 0.08 million shares, 19.41 million shares, 35.81 million shares, and - 116.90 million shares respectively, with a total change of - 39.22 million shares [21] 1.3 主要债券 ETF 份额及净值走势 - Convertible bond ETFs had a large - scale share outflow. As of the close on November 7, 2025, the shares of 30 - year treasury bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible bond ETF were 279.89 million shares, 379.37 million shares, 31.73 million shares, 2635.48 million shares, and 4241.99 million shares respectively. Compared with the close on October 31, 2025, they changed by 11.78 million shares, - 0.06 million shares, no change, 27.80 million shares, and - 99.70 million shares respectively [24] - The net value performance was differentiated, and some interest - rate bond ETFs turned down. As of the close on November 7, 2025, the net values of 30 - year treasury bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible bond ETF were 1.2549, 1.1502, 1.2577, 1.4377, and 1.3610 respectively, changing by - 0.37%, - 0.10%, 0.06%, 0.06%, and 0.85% respectively compared with the close on October 31, 2025 [27] 1.4 基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The share change was not obvious, and some products had a small - scale outflow. As of the close on November 7, 2025, among the 8 existing benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs, the shares of some products changed by no change, no change, no change, no change, - 2.11 million shares, - 1.00 million shares, no change, - 2.00 million shares respectively compared with the close on October 31, 2025 [30] - The upward momentum of the net value weakened. As of the close on November 7, 2025, the net values of the 8 credit bond ETFs changed by 0.06%, 0.05%, 0.06%, 0.03%, 0.05%, 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.05% respectively compared with the close on October 31, 2025. Looking at each single day, the net value showed a turning trend at the end of last week, and the growth momentum showed signs of weakening after continuous upward movement for many weeks [33] 1.5 科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - Last week, the shares of science and technology innovation bond ETFs decreased more than they increased. The net inflow of shares of the 24 existing science and technology innovation bond ETFs was - 10.56 million shares, a decrease of 0.42% compared with the previous week. The top three products in terms of share net inflow were Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF China Merchants (+ 2.00 million shares), Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Penghua (+ 1.39 million shares), and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Huaxia (+ 1.25 million shares). The top three products in terms of share net outflow were Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Boshi (- 7.00 million shares), Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Fuguo (- 3.85 million shares), and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Southern (- 2.12 million shares) [36] - The net value was higher than the previous week's closing price, but showed an "inverted U" trend during the week. As of the close on November 7, 2025, the average net values of the first - batch and second - batch science and technology innovation bond ETFs increased by 0.05% and 0.03% respectively compared with the previous week's close, but the net value of each science and technology innovation bond ETF showed a decline at the weekend [37] 1.6 单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 - The 0 - 4 local bond ETF led the net inflow for two consecutive weeks, and the convertible bond - type ETF led the net value increase. Last week, the net values of 30 - year treasury bond ETF Boshi and 30 - year treasury bond ETF turned down after leading the increase for several consecutive weeks, with - 0.41% and - 0.39% respectively. Convertible bond ETF and Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible Bond ETF benefited from the excellent performance of the equity market, with their net value increases ranking among the top, at + 0.85% and + 0.83% respectively [40] - In terms of the premium - discount rate, 30 - year treasury bond ETF, 30 - year treasury bond ETF Boshi, and benchmark treasury bond ETF led with 0.08%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively, reflecting the market capital preference. In terms of scale change, short - term financing ETF (+ 2.553 billion yuan), 0 - 4 local bond ETF (+ 2.100 billion yuan), and 30 - year treasury bond ETF (+ 1.413 billion yuan) ranked top three in net inflow amount, while the convertible bond ETF had a significantly higher net outflow amount than other products, at - 1.353 billion yuan [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The bond ETF market has experienced the largest redemption wave this year, with all bond - related ETFs showing net outflows. The net outflows of treasury - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs reached new highs this week. Only corporate bond ETFs and urban investment bond ETFs had small net inflows. Different types of bond ETFs presented various trends in share and net value changes [4][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Various Bond ETF Fund Inflow Situations - Bond - related ETFs had net outflows across the board. Last week, the net inflows of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 49.60 billion yuan, - 74.56 billion yuan, and - 9.41 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of - 133.57 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. As of October 17, 2025, the bond ETF fund scale was 6778.33 billion yuan, down 2.00% from the previous week's close, up 277.05% from the beginning of the year, and accounting for 12.27% of the total market ETF scale, a 43 - basis - point decrease from the previous weekend [4][7]. - Treasury - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs had record - high weekly net outflows. Only corporate bond ETFs (+1.09 billion yuan) and urban investment bond ETFs (+1.89 billion yuan) had small net inflows last week, while the net inflows of other types of bond ETFs were negative. The net outflows of sci - tech bond ETFs and treasury - bond ETFs were relatively large, at - 49.52 billion yuan and - 48.59 billion yuan respectively, both reaching new highs in weekly net outflows since the beginning of 2024 [7]. 3.2 Various Bond ETF Share Trends - The shares of treasury - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs had significant outflows. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial - bond, local - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs changed by - 45.47 million shares, - 0.93 million shares, no change, - 55.97 million shares, and - 71.20 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025, with a total change of - 173.57 million shares for bond - related ETFs [20]. 3.3 Main Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - Among the representative products, only the urban investment bond ETF had positive share growth. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the shares of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial - bond ETF, 5 - year local - bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible - bond ETF changed by - 5.33 million shares, - 0.46 million shares, no change, 18.60 million shares, and - 51.70 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [24]. - The net values continued to rise, except for the convertible - bond ETF. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the net values of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial - bond ETF, 5 - year local - bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible - bond ETF changed by 1.47%, 0.37%, 0.16%, 0.10%, and - 2.26% respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [28]. 3.4 Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - The shares had an overall outflow. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the shares of 8 existing credit - bond ETFs changed by no change, - 2.00 million shares, - 1.80 million shares, 0.01 million shares, no change, 0.10 million shares, - 2.90 million shares, and - 1.80 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [31]. - The net values continued the upward trend. As of the close on October 17, 2025, the net values of 8 credit - bond ETFs changed by 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.13%, 0.16%, and 0.13% respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [34]. 3.5 Sci - Tech Bond ETF Share and Net Value Trends - The shares generally had outflows. Among the 24 existing sci - tech bond ETFs, the top three in terms of share size were Sci - Tech Bond ETF Harvest, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Penghua, and Sci - Tech Bond ETF China Merchants. The top three products in terms of share net inflow last week were Sci - Tech Bond ETF E Fund, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Penghua, and Sci - Tech Bond ETF Taikang, with changes of 0.30 million shares, 0.30 million shares, and 0.04 million shares respectively compared to the close on October 10, 2025 [37]. - The net values generally increased. The top three sci - tech bond ETFs in terms of net - value increase last week were Sci - Tech Bond ETF Dacheng, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Harvest, and Sci - Tech Bond ETF Huaxia, with increases of 0.16%, 0.15%, and 0.14% respectively [38]. 3.6 Single Bond ETF Market Performance - The net values of long - term interest - rate bond ETFs rebounded, and only the net values of convertible - bond ETFs declined. Last week, the net - value increases of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF and 30 - year treasury - bond ETF Boshi led, while only the net values of convertible - bond ETF and Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible - Bond ETF adjusted downward, expected to be affected by the decline of the equity market in the second half of the week [40]. - In terms of premium/discount rates, the benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs had significantly higher discounts than other products. Credit - Bond ETF Boshi, Sci - Tech Bond ETF Invesco, and Corporate Bond ETF E Fund had the highest discount rates [40]. - In terms of scale changes, urban investment bond ETFs and corporate bond ETFs had positive net inflows, while short - term financing ETFs, Treasury - Bond ETF Dongcai, and 30 - year Treasury - Bond ETF Boshi had the largest net outflows last week [40].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments due to factors such as the stock-bond seesaw effect and tightening liquidity, leading to notable volatility in bond ETFs, particularly credit bond ETFs and sci-tech bond ETFs [2][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market saw its largest decline since April, influenced by the stock-bond seesaw, rising commodity prices, and tightening liquidity [2]. - On April 24, all ten listed sci-tech bond ETFs fell below the 100 yuan mark, with the largest drop being 0.27%, while credit bond ETFs experienced an average decline of over 0.25% [2]. - By April 25, credit bond ETFs showed signs of recovery, while sci-tech bond ETFs continued to decline by approximately 0.1% [2]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - The fluctuation in the premium/discount rates of credit bond ETFs reflects market sentiment more than credit risk, with a reasonable premium/discount level for physical redemption products being around 15-20 basis points [3]. - When the discount exceeds 20 basis points, there are opportunities to consider mean reversion, and discounts over 40 basis points present potential arbitrage opportunities [3]. Group 3: Arbitrage Opportunities - During the adjustment phase of the bond market, there are opportunities for arbitrage when credit bond ETFs are deeply discounted [4]. - In the latter half of the past week, the sentiment in the bond market was weak, with some credit bond ETFs showing discounts exceeding 40 basis points, indicating increased arbitrage potential [4]. - For cash redemption sci-tech bond ETFs, discounts over 5 basis points or premiums over 2 basis points should be monitored for potential arbitrage opportunities, especially in weak market conditions [3][4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The current lineup of credit bond ETFs with a duration of less than five years is well-established, offering options for both physical and cash redemption products [5]. - If the bond market's volatility is expected to persist, credit bond ETFs that are deeply discounted may offer good value; conversely, if continued adjustments are anticipated, shorter-duration credit bond ETFs or cash redemption sci-tech bond ETFs should be prioritized for their better liquidity [5].

Market Overview - The bond market experienced significant adjustments due to factors such as stock market fluctuations and tightening liquidity, resulting in the largest decline since April[2] - Credit bond ETFs and Sci-Tech bond ETFs showed notable volatility, with average declines exceeding 0.25%[5] ETF Performance - On July 24, all 10 listed Sci-Tech bond ETFs closed below 100 CNY, with the largest drop being 0.27% in a single day[5] - By July 25, credit bond ETFs generally rebounded, while Sci-Tech bond ETFs continued to decline by approximately 0.1%[5] Premium and Discount Rates - The discount rates for credit bond ETFs expanded significantly on July 24, reaching 0.3%-0.5%, while government bond ETFs showed only minor fluctuations[5] - On July 25, the discount rate for credit bond ETFs narrowed to around 0.25%, contrasting with the continued expansion of the discount rate for Sci-Tech bond ETFs[5] Arbitrage Opportunities - In weak market sentiment, credit bond ETFs with discounts exceeding 20 basis points (BP) present potential arbitrage opportunities, especially when discounts exceed 40 BP[14] - For cash redemption products, discounts over 5 BP or premiums over 2 BP indicate possible arbitrage space, particularly in weak market conditions[14] Recommendations - During market adjustments, focus on arbitrage opportunities in credit bond ETFs when deep discounts occur[15] - Consider short-duration credit bond ETFs or cash redemption Sci-Tech bond ETFs for better liquidity and lower drawdown risks in a potentially volatile market[16]