期货日报网讯(记者肖佳煊)国际金融协会在最新公布的报告中显示，全球债务规模在2025年底增加了 28.8万亿美元，攀升至创纪录的348万亿美元。其中，光是去年一年债务规模便增长了近29万亿美元， 创下疫情暴发初期以来最快的年度增速。 报告指出，2025年全球债务占GDP的比重小幅回落至了约308%，这主要受发达经济体推动。而新兴市 场债务占GDP的比率持续攀升，创下了逾235%的历史新高。 国际金融协会在最新发布的《全球债务监测》报告中指出，这一增长主要由政府驱动，政府债务占去年 增长额的10万亿美元以上。数据显示，当前全球债务周期已不再主要由家庭或企业驱动，而是主要受主 要经济体持续的财政赤字推动。 ...

自然利率是一个理论概念，但在货币政策制定中具有重要意义，因为它是中央银行判断政策利率是否偏 紧或偏松的重要参考。美联储主席鲍威尔曾在2018年怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔年会上形象地将自然利率比作 水手导航所依赖的"北极星"，用以指引货币政策方向。 文章指出，通过统计分析可以发现，无论是美国的自然利率，还是其全球对应指标，在新冠疫情之后均 呈现出明显上升趋势。相比之下，在1990年至2019年期间，投资者对安全性和流动性的强烈偏好推动发 达经济体政府债券收益率持续走低，也在一定程度上拉低了自然利率水平。 除政府债券吸引力下降外，研究人员还提到，人工智能可能带来的生产率提升预期，也是推动自然利率 上行的潜在因素之一。此外，面对人口结构转变、军事支出预期上升等挑战，一些经济体的债务占GDP 比重可能继续攀升，这同样可能被市场提前计入利率预期之中。 纽约联储研究人员最新指出，全球关键利率正在上行，背后的重要原因之一在于政府债券作为"安全与 流动性资产"的吸引力正在下降。 智通财经APP获悉，纽约联邦储备银行研究人员Marco Del Negro、Elena Elbarmi和Michael Pham在一篇 博客文章中表示，被称 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is facing an unprecedented debt maturity wave in 2026, with approximately $10 trillion in debt set to mature or require refinancing, primarily consisting of short-term debt [1][3]. Group 1: Debt Maturity and Refinancing - In 2026, a significant portion of maturing debt will be short-term Treasury bills, necessitating frequent and large-scale refinancing operations by the Treasury [3]. - The debt maturing in 2026 was largely issued during the low-interest rate period from 2020 to 2023, with coupon rates between 0.5% and 1.5%. The Treasury will need to refinance this debt in a market environment where interest rates have risen to 4% or higher, leading to a sharp increase in interest costs [3][4]. - Net interest payments are projected to exceed $1 trillion in the fiscal year 2026, becoming the fastest-growing mandatory expenditure in the federal budget, thereby squeezing traditional spending areas like defense and social security [3][4]. Group 2: Debt Issuance Mechanism - The core mechanism of the U.S. Treasury market is a periodic auction system led by the Treasury, which relies on continuous "rollover" of debt rather than one-time repayments [4]. - The Treasury has shown signs of adjusting its issuance strategy by increasing the proportion of short-term Treasury bills to take advantage of lower short-term rates compared to long-term rates, although this increases the risk of concentrated short-term debt maturities in the future [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve plays a dual role in the debt repayment landscape, influencing the Treasury's new bond issuance through its monetary policy while also being a major holder of U.S. debt [5][6]. - The Fed's plan to slow down the reduction of its Treasury holdings is interpreted as a measure to mitigate the impact of the Treasury's large new debt issuance on the market, preventing irrational spikes in yields due to supply-demand imbalances [5]. Group 4: Fiscal Challenges - The ultimate source of funds for debt repayment is fiscal surplus, but the current polarized political climate in the U.S. makes significant deficit reduction through tax increases or spending cuts challenging [7]. - Both tax increases and spending cuts face substantial political resistance, with mandatory spending on social security and healthcare consuming a large portion of the budget, leaving limited room for discretionary cuts [7]. Group 5: Market Confidence and Future Outlook - Market confidence is crucial for the stability of the U.S. Treasury system, as long as investors believe in the government's ability to avoid default and maintain the dollar's status as a reserve currency, the debt cycle can continue [8]. - Key variables influencing market participants include economic growth prospects, inflation and interest rate trajectories, and the ultimate status of the dollar in global finance [9][10][11]. - The Treasury is strategically adjusting the maturity structure of bond issuance, while the Fed navigates between inflation control and financial stability, indicating that the "rollover" cycle will continue in the short term, but long-term sustainability remains a concern [12].

Core Viewpoint - Croatia's public debt has reached €50.93 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% while the debt-to-GDP ratio has decreased to 57.5% from 59.3% a year earlier, primarily due to nominal GDP growth [1][1][1] Summary by Relevant Categories Debt Levels - As of the end of June, Croatia's total government debt stands at €50.93 billion [1] - The debt increased by €0.3 billion compared to the end of the first quarter, representing a growth rate of 0.6% [1] Debt-to-GDP Ratio - The debt-to-GDP ratio has decreased to 57.5%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous year's 59.3% [1] - The reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio is attributed to the growth in nominal GDP [1]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Ghana's debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 59.1% by the end of 2025, slightly below the government's target of 60% for the same period [1] - The IMF forecasts a gradual decline in this ratio, projecting it to decrease to 56.1% in 2026, 53.7% in 2027, and 51.3% in 2028 [1] Summary by Category - **Debt Projections** - Ghana's debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to be 59.1% by the end of 2025 [1] - The ratio is projected to decline to 56.1% in 2026, 53.7% in 2027, and 51.3% in 2028 [1] - **Government Targets** - The government's target for the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2025 is set at 60% [1]

Group 1 - South Africa is projected to reach a peak debt-to-GDP ratio of 77.4% in 2025-2026, an increase from the previous expectation of 76.2% [1]

Core Insights - The Spanish Minister of Economy forecasts that by the end of 2025, the debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 101.7% [1] Group 1 - The expected increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio indicates a growing concern regarding fiscal sustainability in Spain [1] - This projection reflects the ongoing economic challenges faced by the country, potentially impacting investor confidence [1] - The forecasted figure suggests that Spain may need to implement measures to manage its debt levels effectively [1]

Core Insights - The Spanish Minister of Economy forecasts that by the end of 2025, the debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 101.7% [1] Group 1 - The expectation of the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 101.7% indicates a significant increase in national debt levels relative to economic output [1]