新华财经北京12月2日电 美国《华尔街日报》1日报道，对日本中央银行可能即将加息的预期正在美国 市场引发不安。 美国国债收益率1日上升。其中，10年期美国国债收益率当天上升至4.095%。这一收益率上周中期曾跌 破4%。 据美国财政部数据，日本是美国政府最大外国债权人；截至9月，日本持有价值约1.2万亿美元美国国 债。近年来，日本私人投资者向美国和其他外国债券投资数千亿美元，寻求比国内更高的回报。 此前，日本央行行长植田和男暗示12月晚些时候可能加息。《华尔街日报》评论，这让投资者感到意 外，他们原以为，在日本政府可能对央行施压的情况下，日本央行可能暂不加息。据美国道琼斯公司市 场数据部，植田和男的言论推动日本国债收益率上涨。其中，10年期日本国债收益率1日报收于约 1.859%，创2008年6月以来最高收盘水平。 国债收益率在确定消费者和企业借贷成本方面发挥关键作用。美国华尔街一些人士担心，日债收益率上 升会把资金从美国金融市场中抽走，并引发美债收益率攀升。 报道说，交易员预期美联储下周再次降息的概率为80%，将是今年第三次降息。美国总统特朗普11月30 日说，他已敲定下任美联储主席人选，但未透露是谁。特朗 ...

此前，日本央行行长植田和男暗示12月晚些时候可能加息。有评论称，这让投资者感到意外，他们原以 为，在日本政府可能对央行施压的情况下，日本央行可能暂不加息。据美国道琼斯公司市场数据部，植 田和男的言论推动日本国债收益率上涨。其中，10年期日本国债收益率1日报收于约1.859%，创2008年 6月以来最高收盘水平。 国债收益率在确定消费者和企业借贷成本方面发挥关键作用。美国华尔街一些人士担心，日债收益率上 升会把资金从美国金融市场中抽走，并引发美债收益率攀升。 据美国财政部数据，日本是美国政府最大外国债权人；截至9月，日本持有价值约1.2万亿美元美国国 债。近年来，日本私人投资者向美国和其他外国债券投资数千亿美元，寻求比国内更高的回报。 除日本国债外，美国公司债发行量激增，同样与美国国债争夺投资者。分析称，美国企业债发行量增 加，部分归因于美国联邦储备委员会降息。 据悉，交易员预期美联储下周再次降息的概率为80%，将是今年第三次降息。美国总统特朗普11月30日 说，他已敲定下任美联储主席人选，但未透露是谁。特朗普多次抱怨现任美联储主席鲍威尔降息力度不 够。鲍威尔将于明年5月卸任。 对日本中央银行可能即将加息的预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves, highlighting a trend towards a multipolar international reserve currency system, with the dollar's share dropping to a 30-year low of 56.32% as of the second quarter of this year [1][11]. Group 1: Dollar Reserve Share Dynamics - As of the end of Q2, the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves fell from 57.79% to 56.32%, a decrease of 1.47 percentage points, marking the 11th consecutive quarter below 60% [1]. - The decline in the dollar's share is attributed to a 7.1% depreciation of the dollar index during the same period, indicating a negative valuation effect [1][3]. - The IMF's article on the same day emphasized that the dollar's reserve share remained stable when adjusted for exchange rates, suggesting that the decline was primarily due to valuation losses rather than a fundamental shift in reserve preferences [3]. Group 2: Euro and Other Currencies - The euro's reserve share increased from 20% to 21.13%, a rise of 1.13 percentage points, but this was largely due to a 9% appreciation against the dollar, which masked a potential decline in its reserve share if exchange rates had remained stable [3][4]. - The article argues that the focus on exchange rate effects overlooks the positive impact of asset price revaluation on the dollar's reserve share [4]. Group 3: US Long-term Securities and Foreign Holdings - As of June, foreign official holdings of US long-term securities (excluding international organizations) amounted to $67,395 billion, closely aligning with the IMF's reported global dollar reserves of $67,733 billion [4]. - The TIC report indicates that foreign official investors held $38,191 billion in US Treasury securities, $5,078 billion in agency debt, $2,185 billion in corporate bonds, and $21,941 billion in US equities, with equities representing over 30% of total holdings [4]. Group 4: Market Trends and Investment Behavior - The US stock market experienced significant volatility, with a 4.8% decline in Q1 followed by an 11% rebound in Q2, impacting the valuation of US equities held by foreign officials [6]. - In Q1, foreign official holdings recorded a valuation loss of $197 billion, while Q2 saw a valuation gain of $2,152 billion, indicating the substantial influence of market fluctuations on reserve valuations [6][8]. - In Q2, net purchases of US long-term securities by foreign officials fell to $51 billion, a 94.4% decrease from the previous quarter, highlighting a shift in investment strategy towards equities and away from safer assets like US Treasuries [8]. Group 5: Trends in Global Reserve Currency System - The article notes a continuing trend towards the diversification of the international reserve currency system, often associated with "de-dollarization," which refers to reducing reliance on the dollar in international trade and finance [12][20]. - Despite the decline in the dollar's share, the article suggests that the dollar's dominance remains resilient, as evidenced by its continued high percentage in global foreign exchange transactions [21].

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves, indicating a trend towards a more multipolar international reserve currency system, with the dollar's share falling to a 30-year low of 56.32% as of the end of Q2 [1][11]. Group 1: Dollar Reserve Share Decline - The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves decreased from 57.79% to 56.32%, a drop of 1.47 percentage points, marking the 11th consecutive quarter below 60% [1]. - The decline is attributed to a 7.1% depreciation of the dollar index during the same quarter, which contributed to a negative valuation effect [1][2]. - If exchange rates remained stable, the dollar's reserve share would have only slightly decreased to 57.67%, a drop of 0.13 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Euro's Performance - The euro's reserve share increased from 20% to 21.13%, a rise of 1.13 percentage points, but this was largely due to a 9% appreciation against the dollar, which masked the actual change in reserve share [2]. - Without the exchange rate effect, the euro's reserve share would have decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 19.96% [2]. Group 3: U.S. Long-term Securities Holdings - As of June, official foreign assets (excluding international organizations) held $67,395 billion in U.S. long-term securities, closely aligning with the IMF's reported global dollar reserve balance of $67,733 billion [5]. - The breakdown of these holdings includes $38,191 billion in U.S. Treasury securities (56.7%), $5,078 billion in government agency debt (7.5%), $2,185 billion in corporate bonds (3.2%), and $21,941 billion in U.S. equities (32.6%) [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Valuation Effects - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, with a 4.8% decline in Q1 followed by an 11% rebound in Q2, impacting the valuation of U.S. equities held as dollar reserves [8]. - In Q1, official foreign assets recorded a valuation loss of $19.7 billion, while in Q2, they saw a valuation gain of $2,152 billion, indicating a strong influence of asset price fluctuations on reserve valuations [8]. Group 5: Trends in International Capital Flows - In Q2, official foreign assets net purchased $51 billion in U.S. long-term securities, a 94.4% decrease from the previous quarter, highlighting a shift in investment strategy [9]. - The net buying of U.S. equities increased to $237 billion, while U.S. Treasury securities saw a net selling of $66 billion, indicating a preference for riskier assets over safe-haven investments [9]. Group 6: Global Reserve Currency Dynamics - The trend towards a multipolar currency system is linked to the concept of "de-dollarization," which involves reducing reliance on the dollar in international trade and finance [11]. - Despite the decline in the dollar's reserve share, it remains dominant in global foreign exchange transactions, accounting for 89.2% of daily trading volume as of April [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US bond market is the world's largest, influencing global capital flows and investor decisions. The report comprehensively analyzes its current situation, focusing on the classification, structure, and scale of credit bonds [10][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Bond Market Overview 3.1.1 Global Fixed - Income Market - In 2024, the total global fixed - income market size was $145.06 trillion, with a year - on - year growth of 2.43%. The US fixed - income market accounted for 40.10% of the global total, reaching $58.2 trillion (BIS口径), 2.22 times that of the EU market and 2.32 times that of the Chinese mainland market [11]. - China's mainland fixed - income market had the fastest growth rate in 2024 at 9.31%, followed by Singapore (7.02%), Hong Kong (5.94%), and the US (5.23%) [15]. 3.1.2 US Fixed - Income Market - **Stock Scale**: As of Q1 2025, the US fixed - income market stock was $47.44 trillion (SIFMA口径), a 1.35% increase from the end of 2024. Treasury bonds had the highest balance at $28.58 trillion, accounting for 60.25%, followed by corporate bonds ($11.36 trillion, 23.94%), municipal bonds ($4.23 trillion, 8.92%), federal agency bonds ($1.98 trillion, 4.18%), and money market instruments ($1.28 trillion, 2.70%) [17]. - **Issuance Scale**: In H1 2025, the US fixed - income market issuance was $5.70 trillion, a 14.21% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Treasury bond issuance was the largest at $2.43 trillion, accounting for 42.69%, followed by corporate bonds ($1.17 trillion, 20.58%) and MBS ($0.87 trillion, 15.19%) [25]. - **Daily Average Trading Volume**: In H1 2025, the daily average trading volume was $1.54 trillion, a 19.34% increase compared to the full - year 2024 average. Treasury bonds had the largest trading volume at $1.11 trillion, accounting for 71.97%, followed by MBS ($3497.06 billion, 22.77%) and corporate bonds ($575.01 billion, 3.74%) [32][34]. - **Daily Average Turnover Rate**: The US Treasury market had the highest liquidity, with a daily average turnover rate of 3.32% in 2024. MBS was second, with a peak turnover rate of 2.73% in 2020. Corporate bonds, municipal bonds, federal agency bonds, and ABS had long - term turnover rates below 1% [38]. 3.2 US Credit Bond Market Overview 3.2.1 US Municipal Bond Market - **Stock and Primary Issuance**: From 2014 - Q1 2025, the US municipal bond stock showed a fluctuating upward trend, reaching $4.23 trillion in Q1 2025. From 2011 - 2024, public - issued revenue bonds were the main issuance type, with the issuance of public - issued general obligation bonds increasing first and then decreasing, and private - placement bonds having a relatively small scale [47]. - **Secondary Trading**: In H1 2025, the total trading volume reached $1.92 trillion, with 8.7038 million transactions, increasing by 18.99% and 26.04% respectively compared to the same period. The turnover rate recovered to 0.32% in 2024 after reaching a low in 2021 [60]. - **Holder Structure**: Individual investors were the largest holders, accounting for 45.24% in Q1 2025, followed by mutual funds, which accounted for 28.28% [65]. - **Rating and Default Situation**: As of the end of 2024, about 92% of municipal bonds had an A - grade or higher. The median rating was Aa3. The default rate was low, with the five - year and ten - year average cumulative default rates for all municipal bonds being 0.08% and 0.15% respectively [67][79]. 3.2.2 US Corporate Bond Market - **Stock and Primary Issuance**: The corporate bond stock continued to expand, reaching $11.36 trillion in Q1 2025, a year - on - year increase of 3.67%. In H1 2025, the total issuance was $1.17 trillion, a 5.14% year - on - year increase. Investment - grade bonds accounted for 86.34% of the issuance in H1 2025 [84][88][90]. - **Secondary Trading**: The daily average trading volume increased year by year, reaching $759.83 million in H1 2025, a 19.20% increase compared to 2024. The turnover rate was relatively stable from 2015 - 2024, slightly increasing to 0.45% in 2024 [96]. - **Holder Structure**: Foreign investors were the largest holders in Q1 2025, accounting for 28.55%, followed by life insurance companies (22.81%) and mutual funds (15.06%) [102]. - **Rating and Default Situation**: Corporate bond ratings were generally lower than municipal bonds. In 2024, the number of Baa - rated corporate bonds was the largest. The global corporate debt default amount increased in 2024, with the US having the largest number of default companies. Distressed debt exchanges were the main cause of default [107][113]. 3.3 US Other Bond Market Overview 3.3.1 US Treasury Market - **Stock Scale**: As of H1 2025, the US Treasury stock was $28.65 trillion, with medium - term Treasury bonds having the largest share at $15.07 trillion [125]. - **Issuance Scale**: In H1 2025, the issuance was $14.42 trillion, a 3.02% year - on - year increase, and the net increase was $0.34 trillion, a $0.30 trillion year - on - year decrease. Short - term Treasury bonds accounted for 83.14% of the issuance in H1 2025 [129]. - **Trading Volume**: The daily average trading volume increased year by year, reaching $1.11 trillion in H1 2025, a 21.74% year - on - year increase [131]. 3.3.2 US Federal Agency Bond Market - **Stock Scale**: From 2014 - 2021, the scale decreased, and then began to recover after 2022, reaching $1.98 trillion in Q1 2025 [136]. - **Issuance**: The issuance was affected by multiple factors and fluctuated significantly year - by - year. The Federal Home Loan Banks had the largest issuance share [142]. - **Trading Volume**: The daily average trading volume showed a fluctuating downward trend, decreasing from $6.05 billion in 2014 to the range of $3 - 4 billion in recent years [142]. 3.3.3 US MBS and ABS Markets - **Stock Scale**: MBS achieved fluctuating growth with government guarantees, while ABS shifted to mortgage - type underlying assets due to the contraction of unsecured assets [147]. - **Issuance**: In H1 2025, MBS issuance was $86.5381 billion, and ABS issuance was $21.4659 billion. Automobile loan - backed securities became the highest - issuance variety in ABS in H1 2025 [153]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: MBS had a larger trading scale, and its daily average turnover rate was higher than that of ABS, reaching 2.40% and 0.09% respectively in 2021 [155][159].