过去这一周，美国又开始向全球市场释放黑天鹅了，经济数据连续出现反转。 首先是周四，美国的统计局 宣布 当周初申请失业金人数21.8万人 ，这个数字不仅低于市场预期 的23.5万人，也低于上个月的23.2万人的数据。 这说明进入到9月份之后， 美国的就业情况似乎没有这么糟糕了，失业问题有所缓解。 此外周四当天美国还公布了 美国第二季度的实际GDP为3.8%， 也是远远高于市场预期的3.3%。 这个数据说明第二季度美国的经济增长，也是高于市场预期的，经济并没有市场想象那样糟糕。 周四的数据公布完之后，周五美国的统计局又马上公布了最新的PCE物价指数月度数据。 数据显示 老美本月的物价指数是0.2% ，基本符合市场的预期。 这说明什么？ 说明此刻美国的通胀相比之前没有变得更糟糕但也没有缓解， 通胀的形势并没有明显的好转。 一边是就业和经济出现向好的状态，另一边是通胀 依然严峻。 而大伙要知道，9月份美联储降息的依据就是： 就业经济数据糟糕，而通胀数据有缓解。 最新的数据表现，完全颠覆了之前市场对整个美国经济的认知。 所以，最新的数据出炉之后，其实就是在直接向美联储释放了一个信号： 接下来的10月份，不用急着降息了。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring global debt markets alongside domestic markets to understand the current economic environment and potential asset price movements [1]. Group 1: Global Debt Market Changes - The global economy is heavily reliant on debt, with developed countries like the US, Europe, and Japan issuing bonds to sustain their economies [1]. - Recently, a significant crisis has emerged in the global debt market, with Japan's bond market experiencing historic yield increases, such as the 30-year bond yield reaching 3.222%, the highest since 1999 [1][2]. - The surge in bond yields indicates a lack of demand for these bonds, as evidenced by overseas investors selling 6.39 trillion yen (approximately 439 million USD) worth of Japanese bonds in a single month [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The rising yields in Japan are mirrored in other developed countries, with the UK seeing its 30-year bond yield rise to 5.64%, the highest since 1998 [2][3]. - German and French 30-year bond yields have also reached their highest levels since 2011, with monthly increases of approximately 15 and 27 basis points, respectively [3]. - The unusual behavior of US Treasury yields, which are rising despite strong expectations for interest rate cuts, suggests a declining willingness among investors to hold US debt [3]. Group 3: Interconnectedness of Global Bonds - The bonds of developed countries are interconnected, meaning a crisis in one can lead to a cascading effect on others due to the investment strategies of cross-border financial institutions [3][5]. - The decline in demand for bonds from major economies indicates a potential systemic risk, as the collapse of one country's bond market could trigger failures in others [5][6]. - The article warns that the current situation could lead to a global economic crisis, potentially larger than the 2008 financial crisis or the Great Depression of 1929 [6]. Group 4: Implications for Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to remain cautious and consider diversifying their portfolios with recognized safe-haven assets, such as gold, in light of the rising global financial risks [6][7]. - The article stresses the importance of not being complacent with domestic market optimism and recognizing the broader risks present in the global economic landscape [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring global debt markets alongside domestic markets to understand the current economic environment and potential asset price movements [1]. Group 1: Global Debt Market Changes - The global debt market is experiencing significant turmoil, with rising yields indicating a loss of investor confidence in government bonds, particularly in developed countries like Japan, the UK, and Germany [1][2]. - Japan's 30-year bond yield reached a record high of 3.222% on August 30, while the 10-year yield surpassed 1.627%, marking peaks not seen since the 2008 financial crisis [1][2]. - Overseas investors sold 6.39 trillion yen (approximately 439 million USD) of Japanese bonds in a single month, reflecting a drastic reduction in demand [2]. Group 2: Interconnectedness of Global Bonds - The article highlights that bonds from developed countries are increasingly interconnected, meaning that issues in one country's bond market can trigger crises in others [3][5]. - The rise in yields across European bonds, such as the UK's 30-year bond reaching 5.64%, indicates a broader trend of declining demand for government debt [2][3]. - The decline in demand for U.S. bonds, despite strong expectations for interest rate cuts, suggests a growing reluctance among investors to hold these assets [3]. Group 3: Implications for Global Economy - The rising yields and lack of buyers for government bonds signal potential crises in the global financial markets, which could lead to a significant economic downturn, potentially worse than the 2008 crisis [6]. - The article warns that even countries with strong macroeconomic controls will be affected by these global trends, as their economies are tied to external demand [6][7]. - The current environment necessitates a careful approach to asset allocation, with a recommendation to invest in recognized safe-haven assets like gold [6][7].

一年一度的巴菲特股东大会再次吸引了全球投资者的目光，在当下的特殊时刻，大家都在期待这位充满 智慧的老人能给自己的投资决策带来更多明确的建议。 美国发动的关税战正在形成螺旋陷阱，没有达到目的的特朗普把自己推向了烧烤架。先前姿态摆得太 高，吹嘘等着各国领导人排队来亲他的屁股，现在被中国硬刚并形成连锁效应，继续刚也不是，退也不 是，活脱脱的把自己搞成了小丑。 不和中国达成协议，跟其它的经济体达成的协议都没有份量。现在是很多铁杆小弟也开始"护食"，毕竟 日子都不好过呀。 这一轮闹腾之下，全球基本看清了特朗普的底牌，被吓住的乖乖上贡，硬刚的才有谈判的尊严和余地。 三板斧过后，时间已经不在美国这一边。美国累计的天量债务问题没有成功转移，国内通胀风险在与中 国物流和货物贸易实质性断开后的后续效应会逐步放大。 美国是一个"消费立国"的国家，经济高度依赖居民高杠杆的消费驱动。当高通胀实质性的发生，对美国 民生和美国经济造成的冲击是立竿见影的。 一旦美国经济进入高通胀模式，美联储今年的大降息周期又将化为泡影，依据通胀的程度逆转为新加息 周期也不是不可能。这对于美国的债务负担和政策空间来说，是一个致命的消息。 没想到，大家见证的是 ...