2025.10. 21 本文字数：3429，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 债务货币和黄金货币的相对供求关系正在发生变化 首先，在"如何看待黄金"这一问题上，达利欧表示，他认为大多数人都犯了一个错误，即他们把黄金 视为一种金属，而不是最成熟的货币形式。他们认为法定货币才是货币，并且认为法定货币的产生是 为了防止债务违约。这是因为大多数人从未经历过黄金作为最基本货币的时代，他们也没有研究过几 乎所有国家在几乎所有时期都经历过的"债务-黄金-货币周期"。然而，任何见证过"黄金-货币"和"债 务-货币"随时间演变的人都会有不同的看法。 "换句话说，对我来说，黄金就像现金一样随着时间的推移，它的实际回报率大致相同，因为它不生 产任何东西。但与现金一样，黄金也具有购买力，可以用来创造借贷资金，并帮助人们开展诸如创建 通过股票持有的盈利企业之类的业务。如果这些股票表现稳健，能够产生偿还贷款所需的现金，那么 股票当然更值得持有。当人们无力偿还贷款，不得不印制法定货币以防止违约问题时，非法定货币 （黄金）的价值就最高了。所以，对我来说，黄金就像现金一样是货币，只是与现金不同的是，它不 能印制和贬值。当泡沫破裂 ...

近期，桥水基金创始人达利欧在各个场合密集谈论黄金，并解释其投资内生逻辑。 在10月出席2025年格林威治经济论坛（GEF）以及9月末在新加坡举行的一场论坛上，他都提到，建议 投资者对黄金的持仓达到投资组合的10%~15%。 同时，在不断回顾20世纪70年代以来美元、美债、黄金的趋势后，达利欧也一再表示，当前随着美国债 务不断增加，黄金等产品将成为更强大的价值储存手段。 在其近日的一篇长篇博文中，达利欧就有关黄金的最关键六个问题作答。他表示，黄金已经开始取代部 分美国国债，成为许多投资组合中的无风险资产，尤其是在各国央行和大型机构投资组合中。这些投资 组合的持有者已经减少了美国国债相对于黄金的持有量。 21日，截至记者发稿，现货白银日内大跌5%，跌破50美元/盎司，为10月10日以来首次。现货黄金失守 4260美元/盎司，日内跌超2%。 债务货币和黄金货币的相对供求关系正在发生变化 首先，在"如何看待黄金"这一问题上，达利欧表示，他认为大多数人都犯了一个错误，即他们把黄金视 为一种金属，而不是最成熟的货币形式。他们认为法定货币才是货币，并且认为法定货币的产生是为了 防止债务违约。这是因为大多数人从未经历过黄金作 ...

Core Views - Gold is not a commodity but a form of money, serving as the ultimate means of settlement rather than an industrial metal [2][4][6] - In the late stages of debt cycles, when the credit system fails and central banks print excessive money, gold's "non-fiat value" becomes prominent [2][4] - The core asset for hedging systemic risks is not about returns but about survival and stability of purchasing power [2] Gold as Money - Most people mistakenly view gold as a metal rather than the most established form of money, while fiat money is often seen as true money rather than debt [4][6] - Gold has historically provided a real return of about 1.2%, similar to cash, and it cannot be printed or devalued [4][6] - Gold serves as a good diversifier to stocks and bonds, especially during economic downturns or when credit is not accepted [5][8] Comparison with Other Assets - Gold occupies a unique position in portfolios as the most universally accepted non-fiat currency and a good diversifier against other assets [12][13] - Unlike fiat currency debt, gold does not carry inherent credit and devaluation risks, acting almost like an "insurance policy" in diversified portfolios [12][13] - Other metals like silver and platinum do not possess the same historical significance or stability as gold for wealth preservation [14][15] Inflation-Indexed Bonds and Stocks - Inflation-indexed bonds, while good inflation hedges, are fundamentally debt obligations and can be affected by the creditworthiness of the issuing government [16][17] - Stocks, particularly in high-growth sectors like AI, have potential for substantial returns but have shown poor performance when adjusted for inflation [18][19] Portfolio Allocation - Gold is an effective diversifier, and a reasonable allocation for most investors is suggested to be around 10-15% of their portfolio [27][28][29] - The expected return of gold is low over time, similar to cash, but it performs well during times of greatest need [30][31] - Investors should consider strategic asset allocation rather than tactical bets when determining their gold holdings [32] Market Dynamics - The rise of gold ETFs has increased liquidity and transparency in the gold market, but they are not the main source of buying or price increases [33][34] - Gold has begun to replace some U.S. Treasury holdings as the riskless asset in many portfolios, particularly among central banks and large institutional investors [36][39] - Historically, gold is viewed as a less risky asset compared to government debt, with a significant portion of currencies having disappeared or been severely devalued over time [40][41]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, reinforces his bullish stance on gold, viewing it as a "timeless and universal" form of currency that does not rely on counterparty credit, highlighting its strategic value in the current financial environment [1] Group 1: Gold as a Core Asset - Dalio suggests that gold is beginning to replace a portion of U.S. Treasuries in investment portfolios as a risk-free asset due to rising gold prices [1] - He recommends that investors allocate up to 15% of their portfolios to gold, emphasizing its effectiveness as a diversification tool during downturns in traditional investments [1][13] - Dalio's analysis indicates that gold's role in portfolios is becoming increasingly significant, especially among central banks and large institutional investors [7] Group 2: Understanding Gold's Value - Dalio argues that gold should be viewed as a fundamental form of currency rather than merely a metal, contrasting it with fiat currencies, which he sees as essentially debt [4] - He explains that throughout history, countries have experienced cycles of "debt-gold-currency," where gold's value becomes prominent when debt cannot be repaid [5] - Gold functions similarly to cash, allowing for direct settlement of transactions and debt repayment without creating new debt [6] Group 3: Gold vs. Other Assets - Dalio asserts that gold is becoming the second-largest currency, effectively replacing U.S. Treasuries in many investment portfolios [7] - He highlights that gold is less risky than sovereign debt, which can be subject to default or devaluation through inflation [8][9] - Compared to other precious metals like silver and platinum, gold holds a unique position due to its historical and cultural acceptance among global investors and central banks [10] Group 4: Tactical Allocation Strategy - Dalio emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation over tactical bets, suggesting that investors should hold approximately 15% in gold to optimize the risk-return profile of their portfolios [13] - He notes that while gold may have a lower expected long-term return, it performs exceptionally well during critical times [13] - The rise of gold ETFs has improved market liquidity, but the overall market size remains smaller than physical gold investments, which are not the primary driver of the current gold price increase [14]