Core Insights - Over the past four years, gold has become one of the most popular savings options for Russian consumers, with retail gold purchases expected to reach 62.2 tons (approximately 2 million ounces) by 2025 [1] - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the cumulative retail gold purchases in Russia are estimated to have reached 282 tons, indicating a shift towards gold as a preferred means of wealth preservation [1][4] - The demand for gold in Russia has been driven by restrictions on traditional savings channels like euros and dollars, leading consumers to seek alternative safe-haven assets [4] Group 1 - Al Banyan Tree Research forecasts that despite a recent surge in international gold prices exceeding $4,000 per ounce, the enthusiasm for gold purchases in 2024 is expected to decline compared to previous years [1] - The Russian banking sector has largely ceased offering euro and dollar deposit services, complicating cross-border transactions and further driving the demand for gold [4] - The Russian government has eliminated value-added tax on retail gold purchases to stimulate domestic demand and provide alternative export channels for sanctioned gold mining companies [4] Group 2 - Russia, as the world's second-largest gold producer, extracts over 300 tons of gold annually, but since 2022, Russian gold has been banned from entering Western markets, impacting its export capabilities [4][5] - Financial institutions in Russia are also contributing to domestic gold market support, with an estimated 57.6 tons of gold held by these institutions by August 2025 [5] - The establishment of physical gold trading on the St. Petersburg Exchange in October 2025 aims to replace the LBMA pricing benchmark, although current trading volumes remain low [5] Group 3 - The shift in domestic demand for gold suggests that even if sanctions are lifted, the trading landscape and consumer saving habits may not fully revert to previous conditions, as distrust in dollars and euros is likely to persist [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the paradox of rising household savings in China alongside declining demand for loans and housing, creating significant pressure on banks [1][3][4] Group 1: Deposit Trends - Household deposits increased by 11.28 trillion yuan in the first ten months of the year, but there was a sharp decline of 570 billion yuan in October alone, indicating a puzzling outflow of funds [3][4] - Despite the drop in deposit rates to historical lows, the outflow of funds has not significantly boosted consumer spending or real estate transactions [3][4][6] Group 2: Consumer Market and Real Estate - The consumer market remains sluggish, with no explosive growth in demand for sectors like automobiles and luxury goods, suggesting that the outflow of deposits has not translated into increased consumer spending [4][6] - The real estate market continues to see falling prices with no clear signs of recovery, leading to a lack of investment from household savings into property [6][12] Group 3: Investment Shifts - Many savers are turning to higher-yield financial products, with bank wealth management products offering expected returns of 2.92% compared to a mere 1.65% for one-year fixed deposits, indicating a shift towards more rational investment strategies [9][12] - The A-share market has seen a significant rise, with indices climbing from 2,700 to 3,400 points, attracting substantial capital inflows from households seeking better returns [11][13] Group 4: Mortgage Prepayment Trends - A trend of early mortgage repayment is emerging, as borrowers seek to refinance at lower rates, contributing to the outflow of household deposits from banks [12]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that traditional savings in banks may not keep pace with inflation, leading to a gradual devaluation of money saved. In contrast, real estate is highlighted as one of the few assets that can resist inflation [1] - Real estate serves not only as a necessity for living but also as a tool for wealth preservation and appreciation. Over the past decade, property prices in numerous cities have shown steady growth, even amidst economic fluctuations [1] - The article argues that the real risk lies not in price volatility but in the absence of property ownership. Those who own property benefit from appreciation, while those who do not face increasing living costs [3] - It is advised that purchasing property should be a rational decision, focusing on location, budget control, and long-term needs rather than short-term speculation [3] - Owning a home is portrayed as a foundation for wealth and security, representing a rational investment in the future and a means to achieve a more stable life [3][4] Summary by Sections - **Inflation and Savings**: Traditional bank savings may not outpace inflation, leading to a decrease in real value over time. Real estate is presented as a more reliable asset [1] - **Real Estate as an Investment**: Real estate is not only essential for living but also a means of wealth growth. Core city property prices have consistently risen over the last decade [1] - **Risks of Non-Ownership**: The primary risk is not the fluctuation of property prices but rather the lack of property ownership, which can lead to financial pressure from rising living costs [3] - **Rational Investment Approach**: Emphasis is placed on making informed decisions regarding property purchases, prioritizing long-term benefits over short-term gains [3] - **Wealth and Security**: Homeownership is framed as a critical step towards financial stability and a secure future [3][4]

Core Views - Gold is not a commodity but a form of money, serving as the ultimate means of settlement rather than an industrial metal [2][4][6] - In the late stages of debt cycles, when the credit system fails and central banks print excessive money, gold's "non-fiat value" becomes prominent [2][4] - The core asset for hedging systemic risks is not about returns but about survival and stability of purchasing power [2] Gold as Money - Most people mistakenly view gold as a metal rather than the most established form of money, while fiat money is often seen as true money rather than debt [4][6] - Gold has historically provided a real return of about 1.2%, similar to cash, and it cannot be printed or devalued [4][6] - Gold serves as a good diversifier to stocks and bonds, especially during economic downturns or when credit is not accepted [5][8] Comparison with Other Assets - Gold occupies a unique position in portfolios as the most universally accepted non-fiat currency and a good diversifier against other assets [12][13] - Unlike fiat currency debt, gold does not carry inherent credit and devaluation risks, acting almost like an "insurance policy" in diversified portfolios [12][13] - Other metals like silver and platinum do not possess the same historical significance or stability as gold for wealth preservation [14][15] Inflation-Indexed Bonds and Stocks - Inflation-indexed bonds, while good inflation hedges, are fundamentally debt obligations and can be affected by the creditworthiness of the issuing government [16][17] - Stocks, particularly in high-growth sectors like AI, have potential for substantial returns but have shown poor performance when adjusted for inflation [18][19] Portfolio Allocation - Gold is an effective diversifier, and a reasonable allocation for most investors is suggested to be around 10-15% of their portfolio [27][28][29] - The expected return of gold is low over time, similar to cash, but it performs well during times of greatest need [30][31] - Investors should consider strategic asset allocation rather than tactical bets when determining their gold holdings [32] Market Dynamics - The rise of gold ETFs has increased liquidity and transparency in the gold market, but they are not the main source of buying or price increases [33][34] - Gold has begun to replace some U.S. Treasury holdings as the riskless asset in many portfolios, particularly among central banks and large institutional investors [36][39] - Historically, gold is viewed as a less risky asset compared to government debt, with a significant portion of currencies having disappeared or been severely devalued over time [40][41]

When it comes to investing, people naturally think of stocks first. After all, it is the growth of companies that drive wealth creation.But when there are geopolitical tensions or interest rate cuts, the world gets shaky and attention shifts to gold, a timeless safe haven. Shining at Records HighWith the growing expectations of the US Federal Reserve interest rate cut and weakening dollar, we have seen this play out again. SPDR Gold Shares SGX (GSD.SI), an etf that tracks the London Bullion Market Associati ...

•申银万国期货：传统体系频繁遭遇挑战的事件将继续为贵金属提供支撑 •国信期货：避险情绪重新升温 金银或震荡偏强运行 加拿大帝国商业银行资本市场部分析师Anita Soni在最新的预测中预计，金价将在2026年和2027年上涨 至每盎司4500美元，随后在2028年回落至4250美元，2029年回落至4000美元。该分析师表示仍预计黄金 将面临积极的宏观经济环境。关税政策的不确定性将继续存在，并且迄今为止已实施以及即将实施的关 税对消费者购买力造成的负面影响，尚未在美国经济中完全显现。与此同时，美联储比Soni预期中更早 屈服于特朗普的降息呼吁。Soni认为今年早些时候金价的上涨与降息相关，但近期抛物线式的飙升则是 源于对长期通胀和财富保值的担忧，因为美联储的货币政策并未特别关注长期通胀。 黄金继续上涨，受到货币贬值担忧的支撑。盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示："美国财政部 的利息支出已超过年度国防开支，美联储因其独立性面临政治审视，而尽管名义GDP创下纪录，发达市 场的债务比率仍在持续攀升。"他补充说，"贬值"这一概念曾经只存在于历史书中，如今随着人们对法 定货币的信心在长期赤字、政治化的货币 ...