我会用最直白的话分享出来 一、先泼一盆冷水：没有永远升值的资产，只有适应时代的思路 直接上结论：未来最可能贬值的，是"只持有现金美元"的思路；而未来最可能值钱的，不是其中某一 个，而是"一种组合起来的活系统"。 前几天和老同学吃饭，他愁眉苦脸说："工资没涨，物价飞涨，钱放银行感觉每天都在缩水。比特币不 敢碰，黄金又太高，美元换不了多少，到底该怎么弄？" 我看着他，想起五年前另一个朋友在比特币1万美元时问我："现在还能买吗？"我说风险太高，结果他 咬牙买了，后来涨到6万又跌回1万五，中间睡不着觉的时候比赚钱的时候多得多。 别急，我们一个一个拆解。 今天我们不聊暴富神话，就踏踏实实聊聊：比特币、黄金、白银、美元——这四种普通人最容易接触到 的"保值品"，到底哪个最可能贬值？哪个未来更值钱？更重要的是，我们普通人该怎么守住钱，还能让 它慢慢变多？ 1. 比特币：是锋利的矛，但不是坚固的盾 很多人把比特币当"数字黄金"，觉得它能抗通胀。这话对，也不对。 对的地方在于，它的总量固定，理论上不受央行放水影响。不对的地方在于，它的价格完全不取决 于"实用价值"，而取决于"共识和情绪"。 你看今年，美国一放水，它疯涨；一喊加 ...

家人们是不是天天都在琢磨一个事儿：十年后到底是现金靠谱，还是房产更保值？茶余饭后一聊天，三 句话准能绕到这上面来，有的说"买房才是硬通货，攥着钱迟早贬值"，有的说"现在楼市都凉透了，手 里有现钱才踏实"，吵来吵去没个准谱。 今儿个咱就用京片子说实话，别再死磕这俩了！在现在这经济变革的浪潮里，光靠攥着现金或者守着房 子，想让财富稳如磐石，那纯属异想天开。说白了，未来十年，现金可能越来越不值钱，房子也说不定 会缩水，这俩都可能成咱不得不面对的现实。那问题来了，既然这俩都靠不住，十年后咱该攥点啥，才 能心里有底啊？ 别急，咱一步步扒明白。先说说大伙儿最关心的房产，再聊聊现金的处境，最后给您揭秘真正值得咱下 功夫的"硬通货"，保证让您茅塞顿开。 一、楼市凉了？这些信号早就说明白了 就说昆山吧，有房企为了卖房子，搞起了打折促销，结果咋样？直接被约谈了！您说这尴尬不尴尬，卖 贵了没人买，卖便宜了还不行。再看惠州，更狠，有的楼盘直接五折抛售，这可不是小打小闹的优惠， 这是实打实的"割肉"啊！可即便这样，买房的人还是寥寥无几。 您别觉得这是个别现象，全国都这味儿。重庆、南京、苏州、成都这十大城市，二手房挂牌量都突破 195万 ...

Core Insights - Over the past four years, gold has become one of the most popular savings options for Russian consumers, with retail gold purchases expected to reach 62.2 tons (approximately 2 million ounces) by 2025 [1] - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the cumulative retail gold purchases in Russia are estimated to have reached 282 tons, indicating a shift towards gold as a preferred means of wealth preservation [1][4] - The demand for gold in Russia has been driven by restrictions on traditional savings channels like euros and dollars, leading consumers to seek alternative safe-haven assets [4] Group 1 - Al Banyan Tree Research forecasts that despite a recent surge in international gold prices exceeding $4,000 per ounce, the enthusiasm for gold purchases in 2024 is expected to decline compared to previous years [1] - The Russian banking sector has largely ceased offering euro and dollar deposit services, complicating cross-border transactions and further driving the demand for gold [4] - The Russian government has eliminated value-added tax on retail gold purchases to stimulate domestic demand and provide alternative export channels for sanctioned gold mining companies [4] Group 2 - Russia, as the world's second-largest gold producer, extracts over 300 tons of gold annually, but since 2022, Russian gold has been banned from entering Western markets, impacting its export capabilities [4][5] - Financial institutions in Russia are also contributing to domestic gold market support, with an estimated 57.6 tons of gold held by these institutions by August 2025 [5] - The establishment of physical gold trading on the St. Petersburg Exchange in October 2025 aims to replace the LBMA pricing benchmark, although current trading volumes remain low [5] Group 3 - The shift in domestic demand for gold suggests that even if sanctions are lifted, the trading landscape and consumer saving habits may not fully revert to previous conditions, as distrust in dollars and euros is likely to persist [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the paradox of rising household savings in China alongside declining demand for loans and housing, creating significant pressure on banks [1][3][4] Group 1: Deposit Trends - Household deposits increased by 11.28 trillion yuan in the first ten months of the year, but there was a sharp decline of 570 billion yuan in October alone, indicating a puzzling outflow of funds [3][4] - Despite the drop in deposit rates to historical lows, the outflow of funds has not significantly boosted consumer spending or real estate transactions [3][4][6] Group 2: Consumer Market and Real Estate - The consumer market remains sluggish, with no explosive growth in demand for sectors like automobiles and luxury goods, suggesting that the outflow of deposits has not translated into increased consumer spending [4][6] - The real estate market continues to see falling prices with no clear signs of recovery, leading to a lack of investment from household savings into property [6][12] Group 3: Investment Shifts - Many savers are turning to higher-yield financial products, with bank wealth management products offering expected returns of 2.92% compared to a mere 1.65% for one-year fixed deposits, indicating a shift towards more rational investment strategies [9][12] - The A-share market has seen a significant rise, with indices climbing from 2,700 to 3,400 points, attracting substantial capital inflows from households seeking better returns [11][13] Group 4: Mortgage Prepayment Trends - A trend of early mortgage repayment is emerging, as borrowers seek to refinance at lower rates, contributing to the outflow of household deposits from banks [12]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that traditional savings in banks may not keep pace with inflation, leading to a gradual devaluation of money saved. In contrast, real estate is highlighted as one of the few assets that can resist inflation [1] - Real estate serves not only as a necessity for living but also as a tool for wealth preservation and appreciation. Over the past decade, property prices in numerous cities have shown steady growth, even amidst economic fluctuations [1] - The article argues that the real risk lies not in price volatility but in the absence of property ownership. Those who own property benefit from appreciation, while those who do not face increasing living costs [3] - It is advised that purchasing property should be a rational decision, focusing on location, budget control, and long-term needs rather than short-term speculation [3] - Owning a home is portrayed as a foundation for wealth and security, representing a rational investment in the future and a means to achieve a more stable life [3][4] Summary by Sections - **Inflation and Savings**: Traditional bank savings may not outpace inflation, leading to a decrease in real value over time. Real estate is presented as a more reliable asset [1] - **Real Estate as an Investment**: Real estate is not only essential for living but also a means of wealth growth. Core city property prices have consistently risen over the last decade [1] - **Risks of Non-Ownership**: The primary risk is not the fluctuation of property prices but rather the lack of property ownership, which can lead to financial pressure from rising living costs [3] - **Rational Investment Approach**: Emphasis is placed on making informed decisions regarding property purchases, prioritizing long-term benefits over short-term gains [3] - **Wealth and Security**: Homeownership is framed as a critical step towards financial stability and a secure future [3][4]

Core Views - Gold is not a commodity but a form of money, serving as the ultimate means of settlement rather than an industrial metal [2][4][6] - In the late stages of debt cycles, when the credit system fails and central banks print excessive money, gold's "non-fiat value" becomes prominent [2][4] - The core asset for hedging systemic risks is not about returns but about survival and stability of purchasing power [2] Gold as Money - Most people mistakenly view gold as a metal rather than the most established form of money, while fiat money is often seen as true money rather than debt [4][6] - Gold has historically provided a real return of about 1.2%, similar to cash, and it cannot be printed or devalued [4][6] - Gold serves as a good diversifier to stocks and bonds, especially during economic downturns or when credit is not accepted [5][8] Comparison with Other Assets - Gold occupies a unique position in portfolios as the most universally accepted non-fiat currency and a good diversifier against other assets [12][13] - Unlike fiat currency debt, gold does not carry inherent credit and devaluation risks, acting almost like an "insurance policy" in diversified portfolios [12][13] - Other metals like silver and platinum do not possess the same historical significance or stability as gold for wealth preservation [14][15] Inflation-Indexed Bonds and Stocks - Inflation-indexed bonds, while good inflation hedges, are fundamentally debt obligations and can be affected by the creditworthiness of the issuing government [16][17] - Stocks, particularly in high-growth sectors like AI, have potential for substantial returns but have shown poor performance when adjusted for inflation [18][19] Portfolio Allocation - Gold is an effective diversifier, and a reasonable allocation for most investors is suggested to be around 10-15% of their portfolio [27][28][29] - The expected return of gold is low over time, similar to cash, but it performs well during times of greatest need [30][31] - Investors should consider strategic asset allocation rather than tactical bets when determining their gold holdings [32] Market Dynamics - The rise of gold ETFs has increased liquidity and transparency in the gold market, but they are not the main source of buying or price increases [33][34] - Gold has begun to replace some U.S. Treasury holdings as the riskless asset in many portfolios, particularly among central banks and large institutional investors [36][39] - Historically, gold is viewed as a less risky asset compared to government debt, with a significant portion of currencies having disappeared or been severely devalued over time [40][41]

Group 1: Gold as a Safe Haven - Gold has consistently acted as a safe haven during crises due to its ability to maintain value [3][4] - Traditionally, gold prices move inversely to interest rates; however, this pattern broke as gold prices continued to rally despite falling US interest rates [4] - Gold tends to rise when stock and bond markets decline, making it a useful safety net for investors [5] Group 2: Limitations of Gold - Gold's long-term return potential is significantly lower than that of stocks, as it does not generate earnings or pay dividends [9] - Gold ETFs offer liquidity, but physical gold is less liquid and involves storage and security considerations [7] Group 3: Stocks as Wealth Builders - Stocks are the primary drivers of long-term wealth, providing capital growth and recurring income through dividends [10][11] - The S&P 500 index has delivered a 10-year annualized return of 12.52%, compared to gold's 3.92% over the same period [11] - Stocks allow for diversification across industries and geographies, spreading portfolio risk [13] Group 4: Volatility and Information Access - Stocks are often more volatile, with prices changing based on economic cycles and interest rates [17][18] - Publicly listed companies are required to disclose financial statements and material information, enabling informed investment decisions [15][16] Group 5: Balancing Gold and Stocks - The optimal investment strategy is not choosing between gold or stocks, but finding a balance of both [21][22] - Stocks should form the foundation of a portfolio for long-term growth, while gold can play a smaller role (5-10%) for protection during turbulent times [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing increased support due to rising risk aversion driven by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and challenges to the traditional financial system [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. government shutdown and economic uncertainties are contributing to a heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [2]. - Geopolitical risks, including tensions in Gaza and border conflicts in Pakistan and Afghanistan, are further supporting the demand for precious metals [2]. - Central banks are continuously increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a growing recognition of gold as a safe-haven and store of value [1]. Group 2: Price Predictions - Analysts from Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce predict gold prices will rise to $4,500 per ounce in 2026 and 2027, before declining to $4,250 in 2028 and $4,000 in 2029 [3]. - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to concerns over long-term inflation and currency devaluation, with the Federal Reserve's policies being scrutinized [3]. - The overall outlook for precious metals remains strong, with expectations of continued price support amid ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges [2][3].