Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rally, with market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, indicating the beginning of a "slow bull" market. In contrast, the bond market is facing a downturn, with the 30-year government bond futures experiencing their largest decline in months, highlighting a "risk preference" shift in the current macroeconomic landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Market Dynamics - The steady rise in the A-share market is driven by optimistic expectations regarding policy benefits, market reforms, and economic stabilization, leading to an increase in investor risk appetite and a shift of funds from stable assets to high-risk equity assets [1][2]. - The stock market's strong performance is often associated with economic recovery and potential inflation expectations, which diminishes the market's expectations for macroeconomic policy easing, thereby putting pressure on bond prices [2][3]. Group 2: Bond Market Adjustments - The recent adjustments in the bond market are primarily due to direct impacts from fund diversion, rather than changes in the credit risk of bonds themselves. The bond market's decline reflects a reset of the market risk pricing model [2][3]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term fundamentals supporting the bond market remain intact, suggesting that the disturbances caused by the stock market are likely to be temporary [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Bonds - The peak of government bond net issuance for the year has passed, leading to a gradual reduction in supply pressure, which is favorable for the stabilization and recovery of the bond market [4]. - Bonds, as "safe-haven assets," offer relatively stable returns and lower risk levels, making them attractive to large institutions and individual investors seeking diversified asset allocation [4].

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a historic market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, indicating the beginning of a "slow bull" market [1] - The divergence between the stock and bond markets reflects a textbook-like "risk preference" switch, with rising stock prices driven by optimistic expectations regarding policy benefits, market reforms, and economic stabilization [1][2] - The stock market's strong performance has led to a significant increase in investor risk appetite, resulting in a shift of funds from stable assets to high-risk, high-return equity assets, causing pressure on the bond market [1][2] Group 2 - The stock market's capital absorption effect has structurally impacted the bond market, as rising stock prices are often associated with economic recovery and potential inflation expectations, undermining the low-interest-rate foundation that supports bond prices [2] - The short-term adjustment in the bond market is not due to changes in credit risk but rather a reset of the market risk pricing model, indicating that the bond market's decline is a byproduct of the healthy rise in the stock market [2][3] - Despite short-term pressures, there is an optimistic outlook for the bond market, as the long-term logic supporting it remains unchanged, and the disturbances caused by the stock market are expected to be temporary [3] Group 3 - The peak of government bond net issuance for the year has passed, leading to a gradual reduction in supply pressure, which is favorable for the stabilization and recovery of the bond market [4] - Bonds, as "safe-haven assets," offer relatively stable returns and lower risk levels, making them attractive to large institutions such as banks and insurance companies that have a constant demand for stable income [4] - Individual investors are increasingly recognizing the importance of diversification in asset allocation, with the bond market providing a channel for funds seeking rebalancing [4]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is stabilizing as expectations of "anti-involution" policies diminish, with the 10-year government bond yield around 1.71% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Since July, the bond market has experienced significant fluctuations, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising from 1.64% and 1.85% to peaks of 1.75% and 2.00%, respectively, reflecting increases of 11 basis points and 15 basis points [2] - The recent "anti-involution" reform expectations have positively impacted stock and commodity performance, causing disturbances in the bond market [2] - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment may present an opportunity for entry, with expectations of continued monetary policy easing in the second half of the year [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The PMI and bill market data indicate weak demand, with industrial growth expected to slow to around 6.3% in July due to various factors, including adverse weather conditions and production control measures [3] - The cooling of commodity prices is also seen as beneficial for the bond market, as previously over-inflated prices are undergoing corrections [3] Group 3: Liquidity Factors - August is anticipated to see a decline in funding rates, with historical trends suggesting stability in rates like R001 and R007 [4] - There is optimism among industry insiders that institutional funds will likely flow back into the bond market in August, following a period of redemption in July [4] - The yields on long-term bonds have risen to around 2.0%, indicating potential for further downward movement in yields driven by insurance capital allocation [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Institutions are advised to maintain focus on the bond market, emphasizing the importance of securing certain yield values amid a narrow trading range [6] - Strategies include timing trades based on seasonal factors and key events, with a focus on the period from August to October for potential market disturbances [6] - The 10-year government bond is highlighted as a high-value trading option, with potential for significant returns despite limited room for rate cuts [7]

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海7月14日电（记者 杨溢仁）近期，受利空因素轮动影响，债市有所调整。 分析人士指出，尽管现阶段超长债供给与股债资金分流对债市表现构成了一定压力，但配置力量的介入限制了利率上行的空间，当前债市韧性仍存，"慢 牛"有望延续。 调整压力阶段释放 近期，债市收益率呈现出震荡上探的走势。举例来看，7月7日至7月11日，10年期国债活跃券（250011）利率上行至1.67%（+2.5BP）；30年期国债活跃 券（2500002）利率跳升至1.88%（+2.5BP）；1年期国债活跃券（250008）利率上探至1.37%（+3.4BP），3年期国债活跃券（250010）利率上行至1.42% 附近（+3.9BP）。 那么，债市本轮缘何调整？震荡行情主要受到哪些偏空因素袭扰？ 首先，跨季"呵护"资金完成回笼后，近期资金利率出现反弹，R001、R007上行至1.40%、1.51%，较月初低点跳升了4BP、3BP。 其次，"对等关税"暂缓期的拉长——实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日，也对市场情绪构成了扰动。 再者，近期部分投资者开始交易个别地区监管指导当地农商行加强债券投资管理的猜想，内容大体为"要求债券 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera is experiencing active trading and liquidity, with a focus on navigating a narrow range of fluctuations in the bond market due to external uncertainties and internal policy adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 26, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has increased by 0.01%, with a latest price of 112.26 yuan [1]. - The ETF has a recent trading volume of 7.40 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [1]. - Over the past week, the average daily trading volume has been 25.85 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Size and Inflows - The latest size of the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera is 7.298 billion yuan [2]. - In the last 22 trading days, there have been net inflows on 12 days, totaling 445 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 2.0329 million yuan [2]. - The latest margin buying amount is 106 million yuan, with a financing balance of 41.2498 million yuan [2]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - As of June 25, 2025, the ETF has achieved a 13.91% increase in net value over the past year, ranking 3rd out of 406 index bond funds, placing it in the top 0.74% [2]. - The highest monthly return since inception is 5.35%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 4 months and a maximum increase of 10.58% [2]. - The average monthly return during up months is 2.20%, with a monthly profit percentage of 64.29% and a monthly profit probability of 69.58% [2]. - The probability of making a profit over a one-year holding period is 100% [2]. Group 4: Drawdown and Fees - The maximum drawdown for the ETF this year is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.70% [3]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [4]. Group 5: Tracking Accuracy - As of June 25, 2025, the tracking error for the ETF over the past month is 0.050% [5]. - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which reflects the overall performance of the corresponding maturity government bonds [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the credit bond ETF fund (511200) has shown a slight increase and is experiencing a positive trend in liquidity and net inflow of funds, indicating a healthy market environment [1][4] - As of May 9, 2025, the credit bond ETF fund has risen by 0.01%, marking a three-day consecutive increase, with the latest price at 100.47 yuan [1] - Over the past two weeks, the credit bond ETF fund has accumulated a total increase of 0.37%, ranking in the top 25% among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The fund has demonstrated active trading with a turnover rate of 135.09% and a transaction volume of 5.336 billion yuan, indicating robust market activity [1] - The average daily transaction volume over the past week has been 2.51 billion yuan [1] - The fund has seen continuous net inflows over the past six days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 143 million yuan, totaling 334 million yuan, averaging 55.69 million yuan per day [1] Group 3 - The latest share count for the credit bond ETF fund has reached 39.3175 million shares, a three-month high [1] - The fund's total scale has reached 3.944 billion yuan, marking a record high since its inception [1] - According to Huachuang Securities, the current economic pressures and expectations for policy easing are likely to support the bond market, although the bond yield is already at a relatively low level, suggesting a slow downward trend [4]