丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 债市拐点信号明确了吗？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 8 月以来，债市出现明显调整，市场关注本轮债市调整至何处结束，以及接下来修复行情开启 的契机以及修复空间。我们认为，首先从当前的机构行为判断，债市的悲观预期或已基本释放 到位；其次，需要出现一条信号意义明确、能被市场广泛接受的利多主线，在三条可能的利多 主线中，股债各自走出独立行情、以及社融增速触顶回落的情况发生概率较大，央行降息的预 期则需要再观察。当前债市拐点信号较明确，10 年期国债收益率 1.8%附近或面临较强的阻力， 建议把握住调整出的债市机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525080001 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 8 月以来，债市出现明显调整，尤其长端调整更为显著，债市整体熊陡，利率调整幅度大于信 用。市场关注本轮债市调整至何处结束，以及接下来修复行情开启的契机以及修复空间。我们 认为，债市调整拐点出现需要满足两个条件： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In previous bond bull years since 2019 (excluding 2020), the bond market often reached a low point in August. This year, considering fundamentals, institutional behavior, and bond supply, the previous "anti - involution" trading in the bond market has cooled marginally. Related policies will mainly raise the interest rate fluctuation center, and the probability of driving a significant upward movement in interest rates is low. With the central bank's positive attitude towards protecting the capital market, bond market interest rates are expected to remain volatile [5][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Review of August Market Trends in Previous Years - **2019**: Intensified Sino - US trade friction pushed bond market interest rates down. However, in August, inflation data exceeded expectations, and financial data also exceeded expectations. The Sino - US trade negotiation showed signs of easing, and the TMLF was absent in October, causing bond market interest rates to rise from August to October [7]. - **2021**: The central bank's full - scale reserve requirement ratio cut in early July led to abundant liquidity and a decline in bond market interest rates. In August, the issuance of local bonds increased, and positive signals from the State Council executive meeting and the increase in new re - loan quotas in September raised expectations of broad credit and drove up interest rates [7]. - **2022**: Multiple rounds of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts led to loose liquidity and a decline in bond market interest rates. In August, the State Council executive meeting proposed an additional 300 billion yuan in policy - based and development - oriented financial instruments, and the PMI entered the expansion range in September, causing bond yields to rise [7]. - **2023**: Disappointing economic data in May and multiple interest rate cuts led to a decline in bond market interest rates. Starting from late August, a series of real - estate stabilization policies were introduced, and economic data in August was better than expected, causing bond market interest rates to rise [8]. - **2024**: The central bank's interest rate cut in July drove bond market interest rates down. In August, the Jiangsu branch of the People's Bank of China required rural commercial banks to pay attention to long - bond holding risks, and the central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report mentioned medium - and long - term interest rate risks, causing interest rates to rise [10]. 2. Reasons for the Frequent Appearance of Inflection Points in August 2.1 Fundamental Factors - After the Politburo meeting in July, a series of growth - stabilizing policies are usually introduced around August, leading to a "first - down - then - up" bond market trend. However, based on this year's Politburo meeting, the probability of interest rate cuts in the short term is low, and the possibility of introducing incremental policies this year is small, with limited impact on the bond market [11][12]. 2.2 Institutional Behavior Factors - From September to the fourth quarter, it is usually the redemption period for wealth management products, increasing the pressure on bond market adjustments. The correlation between the stock market and the bond market strengthens during external shocks, but in other cases, the direct impact of the stock market's rise on the bond market is limited, and the suppression of the bond market by the stock market is expected to gradually weaken [14][15]. 2.3 Supply Factors - Around August, the supply of local bonds is usually large, which is negative for the bond market. However, this year, the issuance rhythm of local special bonds has advanced, and the issuance speed from July to September may be relatively smooth, resulting in limited marginal supply pressure on the bond market in August [18][19]. 3. Outlook on the Current Market - **Fundamentals**: The possibility of introducing incremental policies this year is small, with limited impact on the bond market [22]. - **Institutional Behavior**: The bond - allocating power of wealth management products usually declines marginally from August to September, which may put upward pressure on the bond market. The suppression of the bond market by the stock market is expected to gradually weaken [22]. - **Bond Supply**: The marginal supply pressure on the bond market in August is limited [22].