Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is facing significant challenges, including a sharp decline in foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds, rising inflation, and increasing national debt, leading to a potential economic downturn in 2025 [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, China sold $25.7 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, reducing its holdings to $730.7 billion, the lowest in 16 years [1]. - Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds decreased from $9 trillion to $8.8 trillion, indicating a significant capital withdrawal [3]. - The U.S. national debt surpassed $31 trillion in 2023, with interest payments reaching $1 trillion, equivalent to twice the defense budget [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation surged to 9.1% in June 2022, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates from near zero to 4.25%-4.5% by the end of 2022 [5]. - Despite a reduction in inflation to 3.1% in 2023, the high-interest rates have led to a decline in stock market value, with a loss of nearly $20 trillion in U.S. equities [5][10]. Group 3: Consumer Impact - The imposition of tariffs under the Trump administration has increased domestic consumer prices, costing American households over $5,000 annually [7]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. reached 25.1%, the highest since the Great Depression [7]. Group 4: Investment Trends - In 2024, foreign net inflows into the U.S. stock market fell below $100 billion, a 50% decrease from the previous year [8]. - By 2025, foreign capital outflows reached $15 billion, tightening market liquidity and making corporate financing more challenging [8]. Group 5: Structural Issues - The total federal debt exceeded $37.86 trillion in 2025, with interest payments consuming 17.1% of the budget, leading to cuts in essential services [12]. - The wealth gap in the U.S. has widened, with the top 0.1% of households holding 13.8% of total wealth, while the bottom 50% hold only 2.5% [12]. Group 6: Global Economic Shifts - As capital flows out of the U.S., China has reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings while increasing gold and euro assets, with gold reserves surpassing 2,000 tons [16]. - The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has declined from 60% to 58%, with predictions it may drop below 50% in five years [16].

Core Viewpoint - A global sell-off of government bonds is occurring, leading to a unique bull market for gold, driven by a collective distrust in sovereign currencies like the US dollar [1][12]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - On September 2, spot gold surpassed $3,500 per ounce, reaching a historical high, while silver rose to $40.85 per ounce, marking a 14-year high [1]. - The surge in gold prices is not merely a traditional safe-haven response but reflects a broader skepticism towards government-issued currencies [1][14]. Group 2: Government Bond Market - The global bond market is experiencing a significant downturn, with the UK 30-year bond yield rising to 5.69%, the highest in over 20 years, and the US 30-year bond yield nearing 5%, a level not seen since 2006 [1][2]. - Other countries are also witnessing similar trends, with Japan's 30-year bond yield reaching its highest since 2006, and France's at 4.49%, the highest since 2009 [2][4]. - The rise in bond yields indicates a loss of confidence in government bonds, as investors sell off long-term bonds, reflecting concerns over rising government fiscal deficits [1][4]. Group 3: Fiscal Concerns - Many countries are seeing their fiscal spending as a percentage of GDP increase, with the UK projected to spend 60% of its GDP, while the US is expected to have a fiscal spending ratio of 40.5% in FY 2024 [8][9]. - The debt burden is escalating, with the US government leverage ratio at 114% and Japan exceeding 212%, both significantly above the internationally recognized warning threshold of 60% [9][11]. - Interest payments on government debt are consuming a growing portion of national budgets, with the US spending over $1 trillion annually on interest alone, surpassing defense and Medicare expenditures combined [12]. Group 4: Inflation and Economic Implications - Inflation is re-emerging as a significant concern, with the US core PCE exceeding 3% and the UK CPI rising to 3.8%, expected to breach 4% [12][13]. - The situation presents a dilemma for central banks: either allow inflation to rise, impacting living costs, or increase interest rates, which could stifle fragile economic recovery [12][13]. - The current environment has led to a paradox where central banks are cutting rates while bond yields are rising, indicating a deeper trust crisis in government bonds [13]. Group 5: Shift in Investment Sentiment - The ongoing crisis in government bonds and persistent inflation pressures are driving investors to seek alternative safe-haven assets, with gold and other precious metals experiencing significant price increases [12][14]. - The traditional role of bonds as a safe asset appears to be diminishing, prompting a systemic reassessment of the value of precious metals as a hedge against economic instability [13][14].

伊朗议会上周日投票决定关闭霍尔木兹海峡，这条海峡对全球石油贸易至关重要。这一出人意料的投票 结果以及随之而来的停火，突显了伊朗和阿拉伯半岛之间这条狭窄海峡对全球的重要性。全球20%的石 油产量经由该海峡运输。 2025年6月23日，韩国大邱一座加油站，一名车主正在给车加油。美国袭击伊朗核设施，导致地缘政治风险加剧。图 片来源：PHOTO BY SEUNG-IL RYU/NURPHOTO VIA GETTY IMAGES 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布了一项临时停火协议（但尚未得到以色列或伊朗证实），这可能已经改变 了全球市场的走向。在此之前的数小时，市场还面临潜在的石油危机和通胀上升的风险。 此举最先由伊朗国家电视台Press TV报道。在此之前，美国于上周日袭击了伊朗的核设施，随后伊朗于 周一袭击了卡塔尔美军基地作为报复。尽管周一石油市场下跌了4%（即每桶3美元），但分析师预计， 若伊朗最高国家安全委员会（Supreme National Security Council）批准关闭霍尔木兹海峡，油价将急剧 上涨。 伊朗关闭海峡的计划即使在停火宣布前实际发生的可能性也很低，但若关闭该海峡，可能对欧洲和英国 市场产 ...

金十数据6月26日讯，新台币兑美元周四早盘升2.4角，续创逾三年高位，日内涨幅达0.8%。交易员表 示，美国关税宽限期即将结束，市场担忧停滞性通胀将至，令国际美元走软，新台币随非美货币上扬， 在亚洲货币中涨势最为凶猛。交易员指出，海外看好台币将继续走升，一个月美元/台币远汇成交已跌 破29整数大关，外资在现货市场也不断抛售美元，令台币易升难贬。 美国关税宽限期即将结束 新台币续创逾三年高位 ...

王爷说财经讯：特朗普又要气急败坏了？中、美贸易谈判后，美联储官员喊话：美联储这下降息更难了！ 为什么这样说？一起来看看！ 值得一提的是，自1月上任以来，美国总统——特朗普就经常措辞强硬、甚至气急败坏地公开向美联储和美联储主席——鲍威尔施压、要联准会立刻降息， 这些举措引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，并曾一度造成美国股、汇、债"三杀"的惨剧。 5月13日消息，在5月12日都柏林举行的爱尔兰央行研讨会上，美联储（Fed）官员、美联储理事——库格勒（Adriana Kugler）表示， 美、中达成初步贸易协 议，同意大幅降低这全球前二大经济体之间空前激进的进口关税，虽然这可能减轻美、中贸易战造成的冲击，但保留下来的关税仍然很高，势必将给经济带 来影响。 库格勒认为，美、中双边贸易活动全面停摆的天价关税将进入为期90天的休兵期，这使美联储为应对经济放缓而降息的可能性降低。 库格勒说："美、中官员这个周末会谈的结果，显然……就两国贸易而言，是一种进步。" 此外，库格勒表示，未来90天，美国对中国产品征收的关税税率为30% ，这仍然相当高，势必将导致物价上涨及经济放缓，但关税的影响确实会减轻。 这位美联储官员说："在我们（ ...