Q&A 2025 年煤炭行业的整体表现如何？ 2025 年煤炭行业的整体表现较为低迷，煤炭中枢价格回到了过去 10 年的低位。 动力煤中枢价格从 2024 年的 850 元下降至 700 元左右，焦煤中枢价格则从 2024 年的 2022 元跌至 1,500 元左右。造成这种情况的核心原因在于需求偏 弱和供给相对增强。具体来看，居民用电增速下滑，总用电量增速下降，加之 风光抢装导致电源替代明显，使得火电发电量同比下降约 1%。同时，山西产 地复产使得原煤产量同比上升 3 个百分点，这些因素共同导致了今年（2025 年）煤炭价格的大幅回落。 煤炭行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251229 摘要 2025 年煤炭价格大幅回落，主因需求偏弱和供给增强，居民用电增速 下滑，风光抢装替代火电，山西产地复产提升原煤产量。火电发电量同 比下降约 1%。 预计 2026 年煤炭需求将改善，风光装机增量减少，火电发电量有望增 加，非电耗煤也将增加。总用电量预计回升至 5%增速，相当于 5,000 亿度增量。 2026 年煤炭供应增量有限，置换产能指标法理上退出可能减少 8,000 万吨不合法产能，新增产能有限，预计供应增速 ...

新能源板块今日午后回暖，截至收盘，中证光伏产业指数上涨0.7%，国证新能源电池指数上涨0.3%，中证新能源指数、中证上海环交所碳中和指数均上涨 0.2%，储能电池ETF（159566）全天净申购近3000万份。Wind数据显示，截至昨日，储能电池ETF（159566）和新能源ETF易方达（516090）月内净流入分 别达6.1亿元和2.2亿元。 中信证券研报表示，2026年电力中长期合约需进行分时段以及带曲线签约，用户侧分时电价将与现货挂钩，不再接受政府规定的峰谷电价，这意味着电力市 场化改革进一步深化。目前，电力系统容量短缺问题仍然显著，已经临近容量不足矛盾加速爆发时点，有望支撑储能长期发展。 UXUZNE ULDULE 27 LED FERS 该指数聚焦储能领域,由 50只业务涉及电池制造、 储能电池逆变器、储能电池 系统集成、电池温控消防等 领域的公司股票组成,有望 受益于未来能源发展机遇。 �日 该指数涨跌 0.3% 光伏ETF易方达 跟踪中证光伏产业指数 该指数聚焦的光伏是代表 性较强的未来能源之一, 由50只产业链上、中、下 游具有代表性的公司股票 组成。 �日 该指数涨跌 0.7% 碳中和ETF ...

中信证券表示，2026年，预计供应释放引发的电量市场供需矛盾将进一步加剧；根据测算，电量市场新 平衡拐点或在2028年出现；电力系统容量短缺问题显现，系统正临近容量不足矛盾加速爆发的时点，储 能发展迎来长期关键支撑；预计2026年，供需宽松和改革推动电价下行风险加大，其中水电具备更强抗 周期下行能力。 中信证券表示，2026年，预计供应释放引发的电量市场供需矛盾将进一步加剧；根据测算，电量市场新 平衡拐点或在2028年出现；电力系统容量短缺问题显现，系统正临近容量不足矛盾加速爆发的时点，储 能发展迎来长期关键支撑；预计2026年，供需宽松和改革推动电价下行风险加大，其中水电具备更强抗 周期下行能力。 ...

中信证券指出，2026年，我们预计供应释放引发的电量市场供需矛盾将进一步加剧；根据我们测算，电 量市场新平衡拐点或在2028年出现；电力系统容量短缺问题显现，系统正临近容量不足矛盾加速爆发的 时点，储能发展迎来长期关键支撑；预计2026年，供需宽松和改革推动电价下行风险加大，其中水电具 备更强抗周期下行能力。 ...

Core Insights - The global energy storage demand is driving a new cycle in the sector, leading to significant growth for companies focused on energy storage [1][3] - Ruipu Lanjun (00666.HK) reported record shipments of over 23 GWh in Q3 2025, with a monthly high exceeding 8 GWh, marking the highest quarterly and monthly shipments in the company's history [1][4] - The company has reduced its losses significantly, with a 90.4% decrease in losses in H1 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a potential turnaround [3][4] Company Performance - Ruipu Lanjun's revenue for H1 2025 reached 9.491 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.9%, with gross profit soaring by 177.8% to 829 million yuan [4] - The company's energy storage battery shipments in H1 2025 were 18.87 GWh, a year-on-year growth of approximately 119.3%, making energy storage the largest revenue source at 53.6% [4] - The company has established itself as a significant player in the energy storage market, ranking fifth globally in energy storage cell shipments and first in user energy storage cell shipments in H1 2025 [4] Strategic Developments - Ruipu Lanjun is focusing on both domestic and international markets, with strategic partnerships, including a memorandum of understanding with South Korea's Hyosung Heavy Industries for supplying 2.5 GWh of energy storage products [4][6] - The company is capitalizing on the new energy storage industry's growth, with expectations of reaching 300 million kilowatts of new energy storage capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6] - The company has signed supply agreements for over 20 GWh of energy storage cells with multiple enterprises, indicating strong demand and strategic positioning [7] Market Position - In the commercial vehicle market, Ruipu Lanjun ranked sixth in domestic installation volume in H1 2025, with a market share increase to 5.95% [8] - The company has achieved significant market shares in the new energy heavy truck and battery swap heavy truck sectors, reaching 7.5% and 18% respectively, ranking second nationally [8]

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 20 September 2025 China ESS J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited Expert call takes: Tender strength and policy support to drive a V-shaped recovery We hosted an ESS expert from the CNESA (China Energy Storage Alliance) as part of our Transition Talks series. Key takes: 1) Despite a cliff-fall in ESS installations post May, tender activities are holding up due to local government incentive programs; 2) >10 province ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive outlook for global energy storage systems (ESS), with Citigroup raising its demand forecast from 177.8 GWh in 2024 to an estimated 360.2 GWh by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 26.5% over three years. The forecast for 2025 indicates a year-on-year growth of 37% to 243.7 GWh [1] - Foreign investment is optimistic about the development of energy storage in China, driven by increasing market demand, accelerated electricity needs in the U.S., a larger storage market in Europe, and deployment in emerging markets to address power shortages [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (159368) is the first ETF in the market tracking the ChiNext New Energy Index, covering various sectors including batteries and photovoltaics. It has the highest flexibility with a maximum increase of 20 cm, the lowest fee rate at a total of 0.2% for management and custody fees, and the largest scale with 770 million yuan as of September 22, 2025 [2] - The ETF has a significant storage component of 51% and solid-state battery content of 23.6%, aligning with current market trends [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expectations for the industry to perform better than the market in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a turning point in the growth of new energy installations, with a significant increase in installed capacity in the first half of 2025, totaling 293 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 140.5 million kilowatts. Wind and solar power installations saw year-on-year growth of 98.9% and 107.1%, respectively, accounting for 64.4% and 76.6% of the total new installations in 2024 [1][9][10]. - The development of energy storage is becoming clearer, with 2025 identified as a year of value reconstruction for the storage industry, driven by both policy and market changes. The introduction of differentiated capacity pricing mechanisms in Gansu and Guangdong emphasizes the value of regulatory power sources [2][17][18]. Summary by Sections New Energy Installation Growth - The report notes that the new energy installation growth is at a critical juncture, with policies transitioning from reliance on government support to market-driven mechanisms. The "430" and "531" policies are pivotal in this shift, promoting a more mature electricity market and enhancing the capacity for energy consumption [1][13][14]. Energy Storage Development - The energy storage sector is projected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, reaching 73.76 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, a 130% increase from 2023. By mid-2025, this is expected to rise to 94.91 million kilowatts. The average utilization hours for energy storage are also expected to improve significantly, indicating a shift towards market competitiveness [2][20][24]. Regulatory Changes and Market Dynamics - The introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms in Gansu and Guangdong is a key development, allowing coal and gas power plants to have a more significant role in the energy market. This change is expected to enhance the operational flexibility of traditional power sources and support the integration of renewable energy [17][19][18]. - The report emphasizes that the energy sector is moving towards a collaborative model where new energy and regulatory power sources work together to meet the increasing demand for system flexibility as renewable energy penetration rises [25][27].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing electricity demand across various regions in China as summer approaches, prompting power companies to implement multiple strategies to ensure stable electricity supply during peak periods [2][5][10]. Group 1: Electricity Demand and Historical Data - The National Climate Center predicts that by 2025, most regions in China will experience higher temperatures than usual, leading to sustained high electricity demand [3]. - On July 4, the national electricity load reached a record high of 1.465 billion kilowatts, an increase of 0.14 billion kilowatts compared to last year's peak [3]. - Jiangsu's electricity load hit a historical high of 14,996 megawatts on July 3, while Hubei's load reached 5,456.8 megawatts on July 4, marking a 1.02% increase from the previous year's peak [4]. Group 2: Infrastructure Development and Upgrades - Power companies are accelerating key project constructions to enhance grid stability and capacity, with Sichuan completing 13 major projects to bolster its electricity supply [5]. - The Sichuan Panxi 500 kV grid optimization project, which enhances transmission capacity by 2.5 million kilowatts, is set to be operational soon [5]. - In Zhejiang, the completion of nine ultra-high voltage projects has significantly improved the grid's supply capacity, with expectations of peak loads increasing by approximately 1 million kilowatts year-on-year [6]. Group 3: Operational Management and Emergency Preparedness - Power companies are enhancing operational management of key transmission channels and substations, implementing specialized inspections to ensure equipment safety [7]. - Fujian's power company has initiated 425 disaster prevention projects to improve grid resilience against extreme weather [11]. - The use of smart technologies is being prioritized to improve grid regulation capabilities, with Fujian developing an AI-based infrared image screening module to enhance inspection efficiency [8]. Group 4: User Service Enhancements - Power companies are taking measures to improve user service levels during peak demand, including optimizing maintenance operations to minimize outages [10]. - In Zhejiang, over 1,300 micro-grid service points have been established to provide tailored services to businesses, promoting energy efficiency through time-of-use pricing [10]. - Fujian's implementation of AI technology has significantly reduced the workload for manual inspections, enhancing operational efficiency [10].