碳酸锂近期供需情况及展望 20251125 摘要 2026 年碳酸锂当量有效增量预计达 39 万吨，为历年最高，主要来自澳 洲塔里森、皮尔巴拉等金矿项目投产及产能提升，以及 Covanta 氢氧化 铝工厂的潜在增量。 国内锂矿增量主要来自新疆大红柳滩和四川李家沟的产能爬坡，预计分 别增加 1.5 万吨碳酸锂当量，但其他项目释放需待 2026 年春季或下半 年，南美地区则受资金问题制约。 非洲将成为 2026 年锂矿增量主要来源，马里地区的 Bogoni 和赣锋项 目预计贡献显著增量，津巴布韦的雅化、青山和萨达瓦那合作项目也有 增长预期。 预计 2026 年澳洲锂辉石碳酸锂当量增长约 8%，国内增长至 12.7 万吨， 其他地区（含南美和非洲）增长至 34.9 万吨，其中非洲贡献最大。 国内盐湖提锂 2026 年碳酸锂当量预计至少可达 22.1 万吨，主要来自察 尔汗盐湖股份新项目及青海汇信、五矿等公司扩张，但西藏地区进展或 受环保及边疆问题影响。 Q&A 2026 年碳酸锂的供应端有哪些主要增量项目？ 2026 年，碳酸锂供应端将有显著增量。首先，非洲矿山的成本敏感点大约在 75,000 人民币左右，澳洲矿山 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to multiple factors, including market sentiment, policy adjustments, and demand expectations for the electric vehicle sector [6][7][10]. Market Overview - On November 21, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the limit down, with a drop of 9%, closing at 91,020 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot prices also fell significantly, with battery-grade lithium carbonate at 92,900 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Trading Volume and Positioning - Trading volume for the main lithium carbonate futures contract decreased to 1,595,600 lots, while open interest fell by 23,500 lots to 479,600 lots, indicating a strong willingness among investors to liquidate positions at high levels [4]. Policy Adjustments - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced adjustments to trading fees and limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts, effective November 24, 2025, which may have contributed to the cooling market sentiment [5][7]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply of lithium remains tight, with processing fees for lithium salts at low levels (18,000-19,000 yuan/ton) due to fierce competition among producers [8]. - Current production rates are not expected to increase significantly, as lithium salt plants are operating at nearly full capacity [8]. Demand Side Analysis - Demand for lithium carbonate has been strong, particularly in the energy storage sector, with expectations for global energy storage shipments to reach 560 GWh this year and 780 GWh next year, reflecting a 40% year-on-year growth [9]. - However, concerns about potential demand weakness in the first quarter of next year due to earlier demand pull-forward have emerged [10]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of a potential decline in demand for electric vehicles due to subsidy reductions in China [10]. - Analysts suggest that while the current supply-demand balance is tight, any recovery in production from key lithium mines could lead to a more relaxed supply situation in December [17][18].

Core Insights - The global energy storage battery market is experiencing rapid expansion, with a shipment volume of 428 GWh from January to September 2025, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 90.7% [1] - Ruipu Lanjun (00666) has achieved over 50 GWh in shipments, positioning itself among the top global energy storage battery suppliers [1] - In the residential energy storage segment, Ruipu Lanjun holds the largest market share in 100Ah cell supply due to stable partnerships with leading integrators like Maitian Energy, Sige New Energy, and GoodWe [1] Market Dynamics - The surge in market demand is primarily driven by subsidy policies in Europe and Australia, leading to a supply shortage for 100Ah cells [1] - The European market has regained momentum, while the Australian market has emerged as a significant growth point [1] - The industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity in the fourth quarter, with leading companies operating at full capacity and facing supply shortages for 314Ah and 100Ah cells [1] Future Outlook - The easing of the recent China-U.S. tariff conflict and the acquisition of numerous orders by Chinese companies at the Australian energy exhibition are setting a positive foundation for overseas markets in the coming year [1] - As global energy transition accelerates, the demand for energy storage is expected to remain strong, allowing companies like Ruipu Lanjun to further expand their market share through technological advancements and market development capabilities [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The global residential energy storage market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%-30% over the next 3-5 years, with significant growth potential in the commercial energy storage sector due to a low base in overseas markets [1][2] - In 2024, the domestic commercial energy storage installation reached 8 GWh, with expectations for substantial growth in 2025 [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Technological Trends**: Commercial energy storage is moving towards multi-port adaptability and increased single-unit power (400-500 kW), requiring high battery life and favoring brands like CATL and EVE Energy [1][3][4] - **Market Dynamics**: The boundary between residential energy storage and balcony photovoltaic systems is blurring, leading to increased competition focused on channel control and brand building [1][5] - **Regional Demand Drivers**: - European residential energy storage demand is primarily driven by economic factors, contrasting with emerging markets like South Africa, Pakistan, and Ukraine, where demand is driven by power outages [1][7] - The 2022 surge in the European market was fueled by rising natural gas prices and supportive policies, with returns exceeding 20% due to subsidies [1][8] - Current conditions in Europe show a return to normal electricity prices and subsidies, with a projected growth rate of about 10% in 2026 [1][9] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets, particularly Pakistan and Ukraine, showed strong demand in 2024, driven by electricity shortages, although demand in Pakistan weakened in the latter half of the year [1][10] - Australia implemented residential energy storage subsidies in 2025, leading to a significant increase in installations, with a projected growth rate of around 40% [1][11] - Potential growth areas for emerging markets in 2026 include the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia, with Indonesia expected to see explosive growth [1][12] Investment Opportunities - The commercial energy storage sector is in a rapid development phase domestically and just beginning overseas, presenting higher valuation potential for investors [2][17] - Companies like Airo, Deye, and Goodwe are expected to show significant growth in the commercial energy storage sector, with a projected addition of approximately 3.6 GWh in Europe in 2025 [1][17][19] - The global commercial photovoltaic market is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 25% from 2026 to 2030, indicating higher explosive potential compared to residential energy storage [1][18] Additional Important Insights - The overseas residential energy storage market maintains high profitability due to pulse demand, brand emphasis, and product iteration, with established companies benefiting from first-mover advantages [1][13] - Emerging markets focus on high-cost performance low-voltage products, while European markets prioritize brand and quality, leading to different competitive dynamics [1][14] - The visibility of demand in the residential storage sector is relatively low, relying on monthly production and shipment data, which reflects underlying order visibility issues [1][15][16]

Summary of Electric Vehicle and Energy Storage Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The electric vehicle (EV) industry is projected to see global sales exceed 21 million units in 2025, representing a 24% year-on-year growth, and 25 million units in 2026, with a 17% increase [1][3] - The demand for power batteries is expected to rise correspondingly, with energy storage installations anticipated to surpass 300 GWh in 2025, marking a 60%-70% growth [1][3] Key Insights Demand and Sales Growth - Domestic EV sales in China are expected to reach approximately 16.5 million units in 2025, reflecting a nearly 30% increase, and around 10% growth in 2026 [1][2] - The European market is projected to sell between 3.8 to 4 million units in 2025, with at least a 30% year-on-year growth, and maintain over 30% growth in 2026 [1][2][7] - Other regions, including Southeast Asia and South America, are expected to see significant growth, with sales projected at 1.5 million units in 2025, a 46% increase [1][3] Supply and Production Capacity - The supply-demand relationship in the power battery and energy storage sectors is tight, with most new production capacity expected to come online by the end of 2026 [4][6] - First-tier manufacturers are operating at full capacity, while second and third-tier manufacturers are also increasing their utilization rates [4][9] - Material prices, such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, have seen significant increases, with prices rising by several thousand yuan per ton [4][8] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The energy storage market is anticipated to grow by 30%-40% domestically in 2025, with the U.S. market expected to exceed 40% growth due to the OBB Act [5][6] - Global energy storage installations and shipments are projected to grow by 60%-70% in 2025 and around 40% in 2026 [1][6] - The solid-state battery sector is witnessing advancements, with new interface solutions and electrolytes being developed, which are expected to catalyze industry growth [10] Investment Recommendations - The lithium battery sector is recommended for investment, with specific companies highlighted, including CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others in the materials and solid-state battery fields [11][30] - Upstream resources, particularly lithium carbonate stocks, are also noted as worthy of attention due to their expected performance [11][34] Additional Insights - The profitability of the lithium battery industry is currently low, but there is potential for price recovery in materials like separators and lithium carbonate [8][34] - The production capacity utilization across various segments is improving, with overall utilization rates exceeding 70% [26] - The demand for energy storage batteries remains high, with orders extending into 2026, indicating a sustained tight supply situation [27] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the electric vehicle and energy storage industries, highlighting growth projections, supply dynamics, and investment opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - The price of energy storage cells has been declining in the first half of the year, with an average price of 0.289 yuan/Wh, reflecting a moderate decrease compared to the first quarter, but the overall price trend remains uncertain due to market competition and raw material supply issues [1][2][3]. Price Trends - In the first half of the year, energy storage cell prices ranged from 0.26 yuan/Wh to 0.38 yuan/Wh, with an average of 0.289 yuan/Wh, showing a slight decline from the first quarter's range of 0.3 yuan/Wh to 0.4 yuan/Wh [1][2]. - The average price of 314Ah cells dropped from 0.4 yuan/Wh to below 0.3 yuan/Wh, while 280Ah cells fell from 0.35 yuan/Wh to below 0.3 yuan/Wh over the past year [2]. - The weighted average bid for lithium battery storage systems in July 2025 was 0.442 yuan/Wh, a decrease of 4.98% [2]. Market Dynamics - The primary drivers of price fluctuations are supply and demand dynamics, with small capacity cell prices rising due to increased overseas demand and rigid production capacity constraints [3][4]. - The global shipment scale of energy storage cells is expected to reach 240.21 GWh in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 106.1% [3][4]. Cost Influences - The cost of raw materials, particularly lithium carbonate, has a significant impact on energy storage cell prices, with recent supply disruptions leading to price increases [4][5]. - The price of lithium carbonate has recently risen due to mining permit expirations, which may support energy storage cell prices in the short term [4][5]. Competitive Landscape - The long-term low-price competition has pressured profit margins for energy storage companies, prompting many to explore overseas markets where profit margins are higher [6][7]. - The domestic market is experiencing a trend of price wars that may extend to international markets, with calls for fair competition based on technology and service rather than irrational low pricing [6][7]. Future Outlook - The unit gross profit for energy storage batteries is projected to rise from 193 yuan/kWh in 2025 to 203 yuan/kWh by 2030, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [7]. - Industry capacity utilization is expected to gradually improve after a low point in 2024, potentially reaching 71% by 2027, alleviating price war pressures [7].