证券日报网2月1日讯，中际旭创（300308）在接受调研者提问时表示，在scale-up的光连接场景中，可 选方案包括可插拔光模块、NPO和CPO等，客户会在多种技术路径中进行比选，选择可靠性较强、技术 较成熟、供应链生态更加开放，具备大规模交付能力的方案。 ...

如何理解 Scale-up 对光模块的通胀逻辑？20251224 摘要 AI 网络互联技术正经历从 Scale Out 向 Scale Up 的转变，推动了铜连 接和正交板技术的发展，预计未来将更多探讨柜内光连接方案，如英伟 达 Ruby Ultra 和谷歌 I/O Superpod 等超节点设计。 高密度机柜（如英伟达 Ruby Ultra）通过增加卡片密度提升性能，采用 正交板和铜线实现内部互联；超节点（如谷歌 I/O Superpod）则通过 光模块实现柜间 SKA 连接，提高了系统性能和灵活性。 英伟达 Ruby Ultra 高密度机柜将 576 张卡拆分成四个机框，通过正交 板和铜线星状连接实现内部互联，采用 Dragonfly 网络架构，实现高效 数据传输，但未来可能转向光连接。 Dragonfly 互联技术通过优化网络层数，减少延时，提高传输效率，最 初采用铜连接，但受物理限制，未来有望转向光连接，尤其是在 Freeman 产品中，可能实现柜内全光设计。 高密度机柜向光连接转变趋势明显，超节点架构通过 SKA 光互联增加光 模块配比，不同厂商实现方式各异，如谷歌使用 OCS 技术，华为和阿里 则 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global monetary policy environment is expected to stabilize, with the Bank of Japan's dovish rate hike and the Federal Reserve's non-hawkish rate cut influencing market expectations [1] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with expectations, while the future pace and timing of rate hikes will depend on inflation and economic developments [1] - The U.S. midterm elections year is anticipated to see a return of both monetary and fiscal easing, which may dominate asset pricing expectations [1] Group 2 - In the spring, liquidity in the stock market remains ample, with high-net-worth investors reallocating to private equity amid market corrections [3] - The insurance sector is expected to perform well, with both large and small insurance premiums anticipated to show strong growth [3] - Significant net subscriptions have been observed in the CSI 300 and A500 ETFs, indicating increased investor interest [3] Group 3 - There are multiple windows for stabilizing capital market expectations from February to April, including the Spring Festival, the Two Sessions in March, and a potential visit from Trump in April [6] - The main assets in the spring are expected to face upward resistance, with market styles reverting to pre-October conditions, limiting upward potential [6] - The spring market may initially see activity in non-mainstream sectors, focusing on industrial and policy themes, high dividend plays, and various rebound opportunities [6] Group 4 - The medium-term outlook remains a "two-stage bull market," with the first stage (2025) at a high level and the second stage (2026) expected to be driven by fundamental improvements and technological trends [7] - The first half of 2026 is predicted to favor cyclical and value styles, while the second half is expected to see a comprehensive bull market led by technology and advanced manufacturing [7] - The spring market is likely to see initial activity in non-mainstream sectors, with policy and industrial themes being the main sources of profit [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the evaluation of pivot points when RSR (strength) is high but RUN (smoothness) is low, indicating a higher risk in the current market conditions [1] - It emphasizes that RUN is more suitable for assessing the initial climbing phase, and a low RUN suggests poor trend quality and increased risk [1] - The article provides examples of stocks, such as TBEA, which have shown significant prior gains but are currently experiencing a pullback, highlighting the importance of assessing the stability of these stocks [1] Group 2 - The article compares three sets of pivot points, concluding that the first set is the most promising and safest, while the third set, despite showing some growth, is less certain [2] - It analyzes two typical stocks from the battery sector, noting that the stock with a higher RUN (Molybdenum) demonstrated greater potential compared to another stock (Tianqi Materials) with a declining RUN [3] - The essence of the analysis is to evaluate pullbacks in continuous trends using the maximum TR over a 20-day period, where more breaches indicate instability and lower potential [4] Group 3 - The article mentions that certain stocks in the optical connection sector are active but have low and declining RUN, suggesting that while they can be traded, they carry higher risks [4][6] - It highlights the importance of comparing RUN levels across different sectors to identify which stocks to choose, with a focus on those with higher RUN values [6] - The article concludes that stocks with a strong base are less favorable than those in the initial phase of a major upward trend, as profit-taking can lead to frequent TR breaches and increased risk [7]

Group 1 - The macro environment for the A-share market has reverted since late November, but the upward space remains limited, with concerns about the capital expenditure decline of leading US tech companies in 2026 and pressure on the AI industry chain [4][5][6] - The central economic work conference in 2025 emphasizes internal strengthening to cope with external challenges, indicating limited short-term expectations for the A-share market [6][9] - The report highlights six key policy points from the conference, including addressing development and transformation issues, enhancing quality and efficiency, stimulating domestic demand, focusing on technological innovation, promoting a unified market, and prioritizing employment and green transformation [9][10] Group 2 - The mid-term judgment remains a "two-phase bull market," with the first phase (tech structural bull) at a high level and currently in a high-level oscillation phase, while the second phase is expected in the second half of 2026 [10][11] - The style rhythm for 2026 indicates that cyclical and value styles will dominate in the first half, with potential early signs of a bull market in tech and advanced manufacturing [10][11] - The spring market is expected to be a small-scale market, with opportunities in commercial aerospace and robotics, while the price increase cycle based on supply-side logic is anticipated to provide good elasticity [11]

Group 1: China Jushi (600176.SH) - The company achieved a revenue of 139.04 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.53% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 25.68 billion yuan, up 67.51% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 26.12 billion yuan, increasing by 125.91% [6][9] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 34.91 billion, 41.07 billion, and 46.48 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, driven by the recovery of fiberglass prices and demand from various downstream sectors [9] Group 2: Transsion Holdings (688036.SH) - The company reported a revenue of 204.66 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.60%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.35 billion yuan, down 11.06% year-on-year [11] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 694.0 billion, 751.7 billion, and 871.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 38.2 billion, 56.7 billion, and 70.8 billion yuan respectively [13] Group 3: Tonglian Precision (688210.SH) - The company reported a revenue of 2.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.75%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 884,000 yuan, down 91.67% year-on-year [15] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 11.4 billion, 15.5 billion, and 21.1 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 1.0 billion, 1.9 billion, and 2.9 billion yuan respectively [17] Group 4: Topband Co., Ltd. (002139.SZ) - The company achieved a revenue of 26.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 900 million yuan, down 44.7% year-on-year [18] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 6.2 billion, 8.5 billion, and 10.8 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [19] Group 5: Inspur Information (000977.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 1206.69 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45%, with a net profit of 14.82 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year [25] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 26.38 billion, 37.31 billion, and 47.77 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [26] Group 6: Benda Pharmaceutical (300558.SZ) - The company achieved a revenue of 27.17 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.90%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.17 billion yuan, down 23.86% year-on-year [28] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 35.50 billion, 43.71 billion, and 53.09 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 5.73 billion, 7.21 billion, and 8.56 billion yuan respectively [29] Group 7: XWANDA (300207.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 435.34 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.73%, with a net profit of 14.05 billion yuan, up 15.94% year-on-year [35] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 21.83 billion, 30.29 billion, and 40.31 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [37] Group 8: YH Technology (688080.SH) - The company achieved a revenue of 2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%, with a net profit of 400 million yuan, up 17.5% year-on-year [39] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.5 billion, 2 billion, and 2.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [40] Group 9: Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 102.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 56.8%, with a net profit of 31.4 billion yuan, up 125% year-on-year [42] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 107 billion, 205 billion, and 268 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [43] Group 10: Dongfang Tower (002545.SZ) - The company achieved a revenue of 33.92 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.05%, with a net profit of 8.28 billion yuan, up 77.57% year-on-year [44] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 12.68 billion, 14.46 billion, and 17.19 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [46]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the optical communication industry, focusing on the transition from discrete optical modules to silicon photonic integration solutions, particularly in high bandwidth applications above 1.6T, with leading companies like Xuchuang driving this trend. Significant growth is expected starting in Q2 2025 to address the limitations of discrete solutions in high bandwidth scenarios [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Transition to Silicon Photonic Integration**: The industry is moving towards silicon photonic integration solutions to overcome the bottlenecks faced by discrete optical modules, especially as bandwidth demands increase. This transition is expected to become more pronounced by Q2 2025 [2][5]. - **Challenges of Discrete Solutions**: Discrete solutions, including EML and VCSEL lasers, face limitations in achieving higher single-channel rates beyond 1.6T, leading to increased operational costs and maintenance challenges in data centers [3][4][15]. - **Development of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)**: CPO technology is being actively developed by companies like NVIDIA and Broadcom, with applications expected to begin in the second half of 2025 for InfiniBand (IB) versions and in 2026 for Ethernet versions. This technology aims to optimize cost, power consumption, latency, and signal degradation [1][6][8]. - **Scale Out Applications**: The primary application of CPO technology is in scale-out scenarios, enhancing system performance and reducing signal degradation, which is crucial for the efficiency of data centers [8][12]. - **Shift from Electrical to Optical Connections**: As bandwidth increases, electrical connections face significant signal loss, prompting a shift towards optical connections to meet the demands of larger data centers [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Potential of OIO**: The Optio (OIO) market represents a pure incremental market with bandwidth capabilities significantly exceeding those of CPO, potentially increasing average selling prices (ASP) and overall industry value [13][19]. - **Impact of Technology Upgrades**: Upgrades in optical module technology are expected to double market value in the short term, with the potential for the market size to expand four to five times if fully adopted [14][19]. - **Valuation of Optical Module Companies**: Current valuations of optical module companies are considered undervalued due to a lack of understanding of their evolving business models and technological advancements [21]. - **Trends in Semiconductor Integration**: Optical module companies are increasingly adopting semiconductor-like capabilities, enhancing their chip design and packaging skills, which is crucial for future competitiveness [20][22]. Conclusion The optical communication industry is on the brink of significant transformation driven by technological advancements in silicon photonic integration and co-packaged optics. Companies that adapt to these changes are expected to thrive in the emerging market landscape, presenting substantial investment opportunities.