Group 1 - The article discusses the evaluation of pivot points when RSR (strength) is high but RUN (smoothness) is low, indicating a higher risk in the current market conditions [1] - It emphasizes that RUN is more suitable for assessing the initial climbing phase, and a low RUN suggests poor trend quality and increased risk [1] - The article provides examples of stocks, such as TBEA, which have shown significant prior gains but are currently experiencing a pullback, highlighting the importance of assessing the stability of these stocks [1] Group 2 - The article compares three sets of pivot points, concluding that the first set is the most promising and safest, while the third set, despite showing some growth, is less certain [2] - It analyzes two typical stocks from the battery sector, noting that the stock with a higher RUN (Molybdenum) demonstrated greater potential compared to another stock (Tianqi Materials) with a declining RUN [3] - The essence of the analysis is to evaluate pullbacks in continuous trends using the maximum TR over a 20-day period, where more breaches indicate instability and lower potential [4] Group 3 - The article mentions that certain stocks in the optical connection sector are active but have low and declining RUN, suggesting that while they can be traded, they carry higher risks [4][6] - It highlights the importance of comparing RUN levels across different sectors to identify which stocks to choose, with a focus on those with higher RUN values [6] - The article concludes that stocks with a strong base are less favorable than those in the initial phase of a major upward trend, as profit-taking can lead to frequent TR breaches and increased risk [7]

2025 年 12 月 13 日 宏观环境"还原"，A 股向上空间受 限未变 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/08-25/12/13) 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 策 略 研 究 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 一 周 回 顾 展 望 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ 一、11 月下旬以来，A 股市场面临的宏观环境出现了"还原"，风格特征也还原了 10 月 底之前的状态。但向上空间受限的问题并未根本解决：光连接 Alpha 逻辑演绎，但 26 年 美股科技龙头资本开支回落担忧犹在，AI 产业链 Beta 仍承压。光连接向上 ...

Group 1: China Jushi (600176.SH) - The company achieved a revenue of 139.04 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.53% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 25.68 billion yuan, up 67.51% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 26.12 billion yuan, increasing by 125.91% [6][9] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 34.91 billion, 41.07 billion, and 46.48 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, driven by the recovery of fiberglass prices and demand from various downstream sectors [9] Group 2: Transsion Holdings (688036.SH) - The company reported a revenue of 204.66 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.60%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.35 billion yuan, down 11.06% year-on-year [11] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 694.0 billion, 751.7 billion, and 871.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 38.2 billion, 56.7 billion, and 70.8 billion yuan respectively [13] Group 3: Tonglian Precision (688210.SH) - The company reported a revenue of 2.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.75%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 884,000 yuan, down 91.67% year-on-year [15] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 11.4 billion, 15.5 billion, and 21.1 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 1.0 billion, 1.9 billion, and 2.9 billion yuan respectively [17] Group 4: Topband Co., Ltd. (002139.SZ) - The company achieved a revenue of 26.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 900 million yuan, down 44.7% year-on-year [18] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 6.2 billion, 8.5 billion, and 10.8 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [19] Group 5: Inspur Information (000977.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 1206.69 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45%, with a net profit of 14.82 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year [25] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 26.38 billion, 37.31 billion, and 47.77 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [26] Group 6: Benda Pharmaceutical (300558.SZ) - The company achieved a revenue of 27.17 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.90%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.17 billion yuan, down 23.86% year-on-year [28] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 35.50 billion, 43.71 billion, and 53.09 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 5.73 billion, 7.21 billion, and 8.56 billion yuan respectively [29] Group 7: XWANDA (300207.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 435.34 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.73%, with a net profit of 14.05 billion yuan, up 15.94% year-on-year [35] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 21.83 billion, 30.29 billion, and 40.31 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [37] Group 8: YH Technology (688080.SH) - The company achieved a revenue of 2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%, with a net profit of 400 million yuan, up 17.5% year-on-year [39] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.5 billion, 2 billion, and 2.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [40] Group 9: Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 102.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 56.8%, with a net profit of 31.4 billion yuan, up 125% year-on-year [42] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 107 billion, 205 billion, and 268 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [43] Group 10: Dongfang Tower (002545.SZ) - The company achieved a revenue of 33.92 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.05%, with a net profit of 8.28 billion yuan, up 77.57% year-on-year [44] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 12.68 billion, 14.46 billion, and 17.19 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [46]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the optical communication industry, focusing on the transition from discrete optical modules to silicon photonic integration solutions, particularly in high bandwidth applications above 1.6T, with leading companies like Xuchuang driving this trend. Significant growth is expected starting in Q2 2025 to address the limitations of discrete solutions in high bandwidth scenarios [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Transition to Silicon Photonic Integration**: The industry is moving towards silicon photonic integration solutions to overcome the bottlenecks faced by discrete optical modules, especially as bandwidth demands increase. This transition is expected to become more pronounced by Q2 2025 [2][5]. - **Challenges of Discrete Solutions**: Discrete solutions, including EML and VCSEL lasers, face limitations in achieving higher single-channel rates beyond 1.6T, leading to increased operational costs and maintenance challenges in data centers [3][4][15]. - **Development of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)**: CPO technology is being actively developed by companies like NVIDIA and Broadcom, with applications expected to begin in the second half of 2025 for InfiniBand (IB) versions and in 2026 for Ethernet versions. This technology aims to optimize cost, power consumption, latency, and signal degradation [1][6][8]. - **Scale Out Applications**: The primary application of CPO technology is in scale-out scenarios, enhancing system performance and reducing signal degradation, which is crucial for the efficiency of data centers [8][12]. - **Shift from Electrical to Optical Connections**: As bandwidth increases, electrical connections face significant signal loss, prompting a shift towards optical connections to meet the demands of larger data centers [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Potential of OIO**: The Optio (OIO) market represents a pure incremental market with bandwidth capabilities significantly exceeding those of CPO, potentially increasing average selling prices (ASP) and overall industry value [13][19]. - **Impact of Technology Upgrades**: Upgrades in optical module technology are expected to double market value in the short term, with the potential for the market size to expand four to five times if fully adopted [14][19]. - **Valuation of Optical Module Companies**: Current valuations of optical module companies are considered undervalued due to a lack of understanding of their evolving business models and technological advancements [21]. - **Trends in Semiconductor Integration**: Optical module companies are increasingly adopting semiconductor-like capabilities, enhancing their chip design and packaging skills, which is crucial for future competitiveness [20][22]. Conclusion The optical communication industry is on the brink of significant transformation driven by technological advancements in silicon photonic integration and co-packaged optics. Companies that adapt to these changes are expected to thrive in the emerging market landscape, presenting substantial investment opportunities.