格隆汇1月30日丨威尔逊资产管理公司投资组合策略师达米安·博伊表示，沃什公开表示过倾向于降低利 率。但他为实现降息所付出的交换条件是希望美联储缩减资产负债表规模。市场的反应似乎是在思考： 如果美联储资产负债表缩小，世界会变成什么样？一旦开始谈论从根基上抽走支撑，所有人们一直用来 对冲资产负债表扩张的资产，如黄金、加密货币，显然也包括债券，都会开始遭到抛售。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Japanese government bond yields signals a potential collapse of a long-standing liquidity pillar in global financial markets, posing significant valuation challenges for cryptocurrencies and global risk assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds spiked over 30 basis points to a historic high of 3.91%, leading to severe turbulence in global risk markets [3]. - Following this yield increase, the Nikkei index fell by 2.5%, and Bitcoin's price dropped below $91,000 before the U.S. stock market opened [3]. - The capital outflow is affecting not only traditional stock markets but also the highly liquidity-sensitive digital asset market [3]. Group 2: Structural Changes - The rise in Japanese yields is causing global capital, which has long relied on "yen carry trades," to flow back to Japan, resulting in a halt in international market liquidity [3]. - This situation represents a structural reshaping of financing costs, as the world's cheapest source of funds begins to dry up, leading to a necessary reevaluation of high-risk asset premiums [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There are widespread concerns that the Bank of Japan is trapped in a policy dilemma, with the trend of global liquidity contraction being irreversible [4]. - Investors are warned to be vigilant about the potential concentration of systemic risks, as yields are expected to continue rising until a collapse occurs [4]. - RYOEX advises users to closely monitor the correlation between the yen exchange rate and bond market yields to find new asset allocation balances in a volatile macro environment [4].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda Kazuo indicated that the central bank will assess the pros and cons of interest rate hikes in the December policy meeting, marking the clearest signal for a potential rate increase to 0.75% [1] - Japan's core inflation rate reached 3% in October, the highest since July, with the core inflation rate excluding fresh food and energy rising to 3.1%, supporting the case for a rate hike [3] - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the third quarter, contrasting with a growth of 1.6% in the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in economic growth [4] Group 2: Currency and Market Reactions - The recent rise in the yen has led to increased volatility in the currency market, with the USD/JPY exchange rate rising approximately 2.19% as of November, and 9.52% over the past six months [3] - The tightening of Japan's monetary policy is impacting risk assets globally, with Bitcoin experiencing a significant sell-off, dropping 6% to below $85,000, and Ethereum falling nearly 9% [5] - Investors are reassessing yen-based carry trades and arbitrage strategies due to the changing interest rate environment, which is leading to a reduction in liquidity and increased financing costs globally [6][7]