特朗普一直给人一种反应迟钝的印象，但最近，他却突然变得机敏起来。在出访国外之后，他似乎像换了一个人一样，不仅在与中国高层的互动中学到 了不少新技巧，还迅速返回美国，马上对下属发出紧急指令：快点拿钱出来！美国以4.65亿美元收买巴西，公开扬言要挑战中国在全球稀土市场中的领 导地位。贝森特的一句话暴露了特朗普的战略意图。 美国投资4.65亿美元收买巴西，似乎看起来是一笔不小的数目。事实上，这笔钱对矿产投资来说远远不够，尤其是对于稀土矿这种开采和加工成本巨大 的资源。矿产的开采、运输和加工通常需要数百亿甚至上千亿的资金支持。尽管如此，巴西的塞拉韦尔德矿业集团的老板却信心满满，直言他们将制定 新策略，准备向美国及其他西方国家提供稀土原料，并挑战中国在全球稀土定价上的主导地位。他的语气充满了自信，仿佛只要获得这笔资金，就能撬 动全球市场。然而，特朗普用简短几句话拉拢了巴西、澳大利亚等多个国家，共同构建一个宏伟蓝图。美国的目标是取代中国在全球稀土供应链中的主 导地位，以为他们能够绕过中国，顺利完成全球稀土资源的收购。然而，事态的发展却出乎他们的预料。就在特朗普得意洋洋时，美国财政部长却公开 喊话中国，表示希望中国能够履行 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strategic dilemma Europe faces regarding its reliance on China's rare earth supply, which is critical for various industries, including defense and renewable energy [1][2][4]. Group 1: Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earths are essential materials for modern industries, impacting sectors from electric vehicles to military equipment, and Europe's industrial competitiveness heavily relies on them [2]. - China dominates the global rare earth supply chain, making any policy changes from China significantly impactful [2]. Group 2: Europe's Dual Dependency - Europe is caught in a cycle of dependency, relying on U.S. technology in the digital economy while simultaneously depending on China for critical raw materials [4]. - The current geopolitical climate poses challenges for Europe's defense and green transition, as modern military equipment and electric vehicle industries depend on rare earths from China [4]. Group 3: Historical Context - The article draws parallels to the Cold War, where technology embargoes were pivotal, but notes that the current dynamics differ significantly due to China's strong position in rare earths [5][7]. Group 4: G7 Coordination Challenges - The G7 is attempting to coordinate a response to rare earth supply risks, but internal disagreements among member countries hinder collective action [8]. - European nations face unique challenges in establishing a unified strategy due to conflicting environmental standards, industrial policies, and national interests [8]. Group 5: China's Position - China asserts that its rare earth export controls are standard industry management practices aimed at sustainable development, emphasizing prior communication with stakeholders [11]. - Experts indicate that China's advantages in the rare earth supply chain are deeply entrenched and cannot be easily altered through political maneuvers [11]. Group 6: Future Path for Europe - Analysts suggest that enhancing autonomous innovation capabilities is crucial for Europe to overcome its current predicament, as there is a notable investment gap in high-tech sectors compared to the U.S. and China [12]. - European think tanks emphasize the need to balance security and development, warning that excessive focus on "de-risking" could lead to missed market opportunities [14]. - Europe stands at a strategic crossroads, needing to decide whether to continue balancing between the U.S. and China or to carve out its own development path, which will influence its future global standing [14].

Core Insights - The report analyzes the competitive landscape between the US and China in the rare earth sector, emphasizing the necessity and feasibility of transitioning from confrontation to cooperation [2][3][4] - Rare earth elements are critical for modern high-tech industries and national defense, with their global supply chain stability impacting economic development and national security [2][4] - China dominates the global rare earth market due to its resource reserves, production scale, and complete industrial chain, while the US faces significant strategic risks due to its reliance on foreign supply chains [3][4] Global Strategic Context - The report discusses the macro background of US-China rare earth competition, highlighting the evolution from trade friction to strategic resource confrontation [3][4] - The "US-Pakistan rare earth cooperation" event in Fall 2025 is identified as a geopolitical turning point, illustrating the intensifying competition [3][4][9] Unique Value of Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth elements are described as "industrial vitamins," with key applications in advanced fields such as permanent magnets, catalysts, and precision optics [3][4] - The geographical distribution of global rare earth resources is analyzed, showcasing China's comprehensive advantages in mining, separation, smelting, processing, and technology development [3][4][29] Economic and National Security Vulnerabilities - The escalating rare earth confrontation poses a negative-sum game for both the US and China, threatening the stability of high-tech industries and national defense in the US while causing environmental degradation in China [4][5] - The US's dependence on foreign rare earth supplies creates significant economic and national security vulnerabilities [4][5][35] Potential for Cooperation - The report argues for the potential and mutual benefits of US-China cooperation in the rare earth sector, which could stabilize the global market and provide predictable business environments for both countries [5][6] - Cooperation could involve the US leveraging its capital and advanced environmental technologies to support China's green transformation in the rare earth industry [5][6] Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The report highlights the retreat from globalization and the restructuring of supply chains, with rare earths becoming a focal point in this transition [7][8] - The US and China’s bilateral relationship significantly influences global supply chain dynamics, with rare earths being weaponized as a strategic bargaining chip [8][9] Rare Earth Distribution and Production - The global distribution of rare earth resources is characterized by a concentration of production and processing capabilities in China, which controls approximately 60%-70% of global rare earth mining [29][31] - China's dominance in rare earth processing is underscored, with about 90% of global separation and refining capacity located within its borders [31][32] Strategic Implications - The report concludes that the strategic competition over rare earths is fundamentally about future technological, economic, and security dominance [27][35] - Understanding the geopolitical landscape of rare earths is essential for analyzing the prospects of US-China confrontation and cooperation [36][37]

Core Viewpoint - China has tightened its control over rare earth elements, including the regulation of rare earth technology, sending shockwaves through the global market and solidifying its dominance in the rare earth supply chain [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The latest measures from China's Ministry of Commerce include restrictions not only on the export of rare earth materials and products but also on rare earth technology, marking a significant shift in regulatory focus [1][3]. - Key middle and heavy rare earth minerals have been classified as "strategic resources," requiring export licenses, which directly impacts the United States due to its limited reserves and refining capabilities [3][5]. - The new regulations extend to third countries, requiring licenses for exports containing more than 0.1% of Chinese rare earths, effectively blocking routes for circumvention through third-party nations [3]. Group 2: Impact on Global Supply Chain - The focus on middle and heavy rare earths, particularly critical materials like holmium, erbium, and europium, is crucial for the U.S. military and high-tech industries, highlighting the strategic importance of these resources [1][3]. - China's leading position in rare earth refining technology enhances its control over the global supply chain, as other countries like Australia, India, and Brazil lack comparable refining capabilities [3][5]. Group 3: Strategic Interests - The series of measures aims to protect China's strategic interests while ensuring global supply stability, reflecting the dual-use nature of rare earths for both civilian and military applications [7]. - China emphasizes the need for rational cooperation from the U.S. to avoid mutual harm, suggesting that unilateral restrictions could have broader implications for global stability [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - A call for rational collaboration and joint innovation in the rare earth market is made, with hopes for a more stable and sustainable future [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic importance of rare earth elements in the context of US-China relations, emphasizing that China's control over rare earth resources gives it significant leverage in negotiations with the US and Europe [1][2][10]. Historical Background and Policy Evolution - Rare earth elements, despite being labeled "rare," are not particularly scarce in the Earth's crust, with some like cerium being as abundant as copper [2]. - China dominated the global rare earth market in the late 20th century, capturing about 97% of the market share through low-cost exports, which led to environmental issues [2][3]. - Since 1998, China has gradually tightened control over rare earth exports through quota systems to stabilize prices and reduce environmental damage [2][3]. Current Control Mechanism - China's rare earth industry is strictly regulated through a quota system, which is adjusted annually based on global demand to maintain supply-demand balance and price stability [5]. - The state-owned enterprises, China Rare Earth (Southern) and Northern Rare Earth, control the entire production chain from mining to final product [5]. Export Restrictions and Strategic Impact - Starting April 2024, China will implement a licensing system for the export of seven heavy rare earth elements, which are crucial for both civilian and military applications [6]. - The approval process for export licenses takes about 45 working days, causing potential production disruptions for overseas manufacturers [6][10]. - China allows the export of finished products containing rare earth magnets, providing a workaround for foreign manufacturers to access rare earth materials indirectly [6]. Challenges in Replacing Chinese Supply - Despite the abundance of rare earth elements, the extraction and processing are environmentally challenging, leading many countries to avoid developing their resources [8][9]. - New mining projects typically take 3 to 5 years to develop, with significant delays in regions with strict environmental regulations [8]. - China currently holds a 90% market share in rare earth magnets, making it difficult for other countries to compete due to technological and scale disadvantages [9]. Long-term Strategic Implications - China's control over rare earth resources provides it with a strong geopolitical leverage, but this leverage may diminish over time as other countries invest in alternative supply chains [10][11]. - The ongoing supply chain disruptions have significantly impacted industries reliant on rare earth elements, highlighting their critical role in modern technology [11]. - The article contrasts China's strategic management of rare earth resources with the US's challenges in regulating high-end chip exports, suggesting that China's approach may offer more effective control [11].