Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel price adjustment window will open on February 3, with significant increases in retail prices for gasoline and diesel due to fluctuations in international oil prices during the adjustment period [1][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - From February 3, the retail price of gasoline and diesel will increase by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively [1]. - The average price increase for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel will be 0.16 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.17 yuan per liter, respectively [1]. - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 8 yuan [1]. Group 2: International Oil Price Trends - During the adjustment period (January 20 to February 2), international oil prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions and adverse weather conditions in the U.S. [3]. - Brent crude oil futures prices briefly exceeded $70 per barrel due to increased U.S. pressure on Iran and a significant drop in crude oil exports from the Gulf of Mexico [3]. - By the end of the period, Brent crude oil prices fell to around $66 per barrel as geopolitical tensions eased with the initiation of U.S.-Iran negotiations [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates continued volatility in international oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, despite the initiation of dialogue between the U.S. and Iran [4]. - The International Monetary Fund has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, indicating potential support for oil prices [4]. - The International Energy Agency has also increased its forecast for global oil demand growth this year by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, suggesting an improving economic outlook [4].

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,276 | -23↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1486145 | -15864↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -13,902 | +5130↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -19 | +1↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 216602 | -44 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.03%, showing reduced volume and stable open interest. In the current situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of rebar have temporarily improved, but the downstream has not improved, and demand concerns remain, continuing to pressure steel prices. The relatively good news is the rising cost. Before the holiday, steel prices will continue to oscillate. Pay attention to changes in open interest [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.24%, showing reduced volume and stable open interest. Currently, the demand resilience of hot-rolled coils is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. The supply-demand pattern has weakened, and inventories have increased again, continuing to pressure coil prices. The relatively good news is the rising cost. It is expected that the subsequent trend will be oscillating and weakening. Pay attention to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated with a daily increase of 0%, showing reduced volume and open interest. Currently, the demand for iron ore is performing well, providing support for ore prices, but the demand benefits are weakening, and the supply pressure is rising. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward drive for high-valued ore prices is not strong. Before the holiday, the trend will continue to oscillate at a high level. Be cautious of the intensification of industrial contradictions [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Industry Dynamics - The OECD raised the global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.2%, up from 2.9% predicted in June, while keeping the 2026 forecast unchanged at 2.9%. Both figures are lower than the 3.3% growth rate in 2024. However, the OECD warned that the economic outlook still faces significant risks due to high policy uncertainty and high tariffs [6]. - From January to August 2025, 2.17 million urban old residential areas were newly renovated across the country, with some regions such as Hebei, Liaoning, and Chongqing having completed all planned projects [7]. - On September 23, 2025, South Korea decided to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on carbon steel and alloy steel hot-rolled coils originating from China and Japan. The duty rate for Chinese exporters and producers is 33.10%, and for Japanese producers/exports, it is 31.58 - 33.57%. The measure will be effective for four months until January 22, 2026 [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,250, 3,230, and 3,306 respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,400, 3,320, and 3,438 respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet is 3,030, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,150. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is 150, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,100 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 795, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is 798. The ocean freight rates from Australia and Brazil are 10.77 and 24.84 respectively. The SGX swap price is 105.69, and the Platts index is 106.20 [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,164, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume is 1,205,152, a decrease of 85,224, and the open interest is 1,882,224, an increase of 812 [11]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract is 3,357, with a daily increase of 0.24%. The trading volume is 467,774, a decrease of 181,592, and the open interest is 1,367,761, an increase of 668 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 803.5, with a daily increase of 0%. The trading volume is 202,421, a decrease of 87,266, and the open interest is 539,059, a decrease of 7,511 [11]. 5. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply-demand pattern has improved. The weekly output decreased by 5.48 tons, and the weekly apparent demand increased by 11.96 tons. However, the current inventory is higher than in previous years, and the improvement in downstream demand is uncertain. Before the holiday, steel prices will continue to oscillate. Pay attention to changes in open interest [37]. - For hot-rolled coils, the supply is increasing, with a weekly output increase of 1.35 tons, while the demand is weakening, with a weekly apparent demand decrease of 4.34 tons. The supply-demand pattern has weakened, and inventories have increased. It is expected that the subsequent trend will be oscillating and weakening. Pay attention to the demand performance [37]. - For iron ore, the demand is currently good, with the daily molten iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increasing slightly. However, the demand benefits are weakening, and the supply pressure is rising. Before the holiday, the trend will continue to oscillate at a high level. Be cautious of the intensification of industrial contradictions [38].

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, now expecting growth rates of 3% and 3.1% for 2023 and 2024 respectively, which is an upward adjustment from previous predictions [1] Economic Growth Projections - The upward revision in global economic growth expectations is attributed to better-than-expected international trade, lower average effective tariff levels in the U.S., improved global financial conditions, and fiscal expansions in major economies [1] - Specifically, the IMF has raised its growth forecast for China by 0.8 percentage points for this year, citing stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and significant reductions in U.S.-China tariffs [1] Factors Influencing China's Growth - The IMF's adjustment for China's economic growth is primarily driven by robust exports to other regions, which have offset declines in exports to the U.S., along with supportive fiscal policies that have bolstered consumer spending [1] - Additionally, the IMF has also increased its growth forecast for China for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points [1] Recommendations for Policy - The IMF suggests that countries should promote clear and transparent trade frameworks to reduce policy-induced uncertainties [1] - It also recommends that central banks calibrate monetary policies cautiously based on specific national conditions to maintain price and financial stability amid ongoing trade tensions and changing tariffs [1]