Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding intermediate goods trade in China as a key strategy for enhancing economic security, promoting high-quality development, and optimizing trade structure during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Summary by Sections Intermediate Goods Trade Overview - Intermediate goods trade involves cross-border transactions of raw materials, components, and semi-finished products, reflecting a country's participation in global production networks and industrial competitiveness [1] - China's intermediate goods trade has shown a trend of scale expansion and structural upgrading, with a shift from labor-intensive to technology-intensive products, enhancing the resilience of supply chains and mitigating external market risks [1] Challenges in Intermediate Goods Trade - China's high reliance on imports for intermediate goods indicates a lower position in the global value chain, particularly for high-end intermediate goods and core technologies [2] - The digitalization and standardization levels of intermediate goods trade need improvement, and there is insufficient pricing power and regulatory influence in global supply chains [2] Strategies for High-Quality Development - Strengthening original technological innovation is crucial to overcoming bottlenecks in high-end intermediate goods supply [2] - A dynamic assessment of the industrial chain is necessary to identify weak points and enhance collaboration on key technologies through national initiatives [2] Regional Layout and Industry Clusters - Optimizing regional layouts and cultivating industry clusters are essential for enhancing competitive advantages in intermediate goods trade [3] - Coastal regions should focus on technology-intensive intermediate goods, while central and western regions should develop advanced manufacturing bases to support global supply chains [3] Expanding Trade Networks - Developing a diversified trade network is vital for the quality of intermediate goods trade, with a focus on building high-quality trade networks along the Belt and Road Initiative [3] - Engaging in regional free trade agreements and participating in international standard-setting can enhance market access and reduce institutional barriers [3] Policy Support and Risk Management - Establishing a comprehensive policy support system is necessary to facilitate the development of intermediate goods trade, including financial and tax incentives [4] - Expanding export credit insurance and creating a dispute resolution mechanism can provide risk protection and legal support for businesses involved in intermediate goods trade [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding intermediate goods trade in China as a key strategy for optimizing trade structure, enhancing industrial competitiveness, and ensuring economic security during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2]. Group 1: Current State of Intermediate Goods Trade - China's intermediate goods trade has shown a trend of scale expansion and structural upgrading, with a shift from labor-intensive to technology-intensive products [1]. - The self-production and trade scale of key intermediate goods are gradually increasing, leading to higher added value and improved resilience of the industrial supply chain [1]. Group 2: Challenges in Intermediate Goods Trade - China's reliance on imports for intermediate goods indicates a lower position in the global value chain, particularly for high-end intermediate goods and core technologies [2]. - The digitalization and standardization levels of intermediate goods trade need improvement, and there is insufficient pricing power and regulatory influence in the global supply chain [2]. Group 3: Strategies for Development - Strengthening original technological innovation is crucial to overcoming bottlenecks in high-end intermediate goods supply [2]. - Optimizing regional layouts and cultivating industrial clusters for intermediate goods trade can enhance competitive advantages [3]. - Expanding diverse trade networks and solidifying overseas market foundations are essential for the quality development of intermediate goods trade [3]. Group 4: Policy Support and Infrastructure - Establishing a comprehensive policy support system for intermediate goods trade is necessary to address systemic barriers [4]. - Enhancing financial policies and risk protection mechanisms will provide a favorable environment for the development of intermediate goods trade [4].

Core Insights - In October, China's total goods trade value reached 3.7 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.1%. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, down 0.8%, while imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, up 1.4%, marking five consecutive months of growth [1][2] Trade Performance - For the first ten months, China's total goods trade value was 37.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year. Exports amounted to 22.12 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, and imports were 15.19 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year [1][2] Product Categories - In the first ten months, electromechanical products accounted for over 60% of exports, with significant growth in integrated circuits and automobiles. Exports of electromechanical products reached 13.43 trillion yuan, up 8.7%, while integrated circuits grew by 24.7% to 1.16 trillion yuan, and automobile exports increased by 14.3% to 798.39 billion yuan [2] Market Distribution - ASEAN emerged as China's largest trading partner, with a trade value of 6.18 trillion yuan, up 9.1%, representing 16.6% of total foreign trade. The EU was the second-largest partner, with a trade value of 4.88 trillion yuan, up 4.9%, accounting for 13.1% of total foreign trade. Trade with Belt and Road countries totaled 19.28 trillion yuan, a 5.9% increase [2] Enterprise Types - Private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises saw growth in trade. Private enterprises' trade value was 21.28 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, making up 57% of total foreign trade. Foreign-invested enterprises had a trade value of 10.91 trillion yuan, up 2.9%, representing 29.3% of total foreign trade. In contrast, state-owned enterprises experienced a decline, with a trade value of 5.04 trillion yuan, down 8.1%, accounting for 13.5% of total foreign trade [2]

Group 1: Economic and Social Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of technology and innovation, mentioning "technology" 46 times and "innovation" 61 times, highlighting the need for original and disruptive innovations [1] - The plan includes measures to improve people's livelihoods, such as expanding free education and exploring the extension of compulsory education [1][16] - It proposes to enhance public service spending to boost consumer capacity, indicating a shift towards improving the consumption environment [7][10] Group 2: Future Industries and Technological Innovation - The plan aims to promote emerging industries like quantum technology, biotechnology, hydrogen energy, and artificial intelligence as new economic growth points [2][3] - It suggests establishing a risk-sharing mechanism for future industry investments to address uncertainties in technology and market [4][5] - The plan calls for a comprehensive implementation of "Artificial Intelligence+" to drive research and development across various sectors [6][7] Group 3: Consumption and Housing - The plan proposes to eliminate unreasonable restrictions on consumption in sectors like automobiles and housing, signaling a new phase in consumer development [8][19] - It aims to optimize the supply of affordable housing to meet the basic needs of urban wage earners and disadvantaged families, marking a shift from a "safety net" to a "universal" approach [19] Group 4: Energy and Environmental Goals - The plan sets a target for peak coal and oil consumption, aligning with the broader goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2030 [9] - It emphasizes the need for a new energy system and the development of clean energy sources to support this transition [9] Group 5: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The plan advocates for a more proactive fiscal policy to enhance sustainability and stimulate effective investment [10] - It suggests a stable and continuous approach to fiscal and monetary policies during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [10] Group 6: Trade and International Cooperation - The plan focuses on expanding market access and opening up service sectors, indicating a shift towards enhancing service trade competitiveness [11][12] - It highlights the importance of developing green trade and intermediate goods trade to stabilize foreign trade [12][13]

华创证券研究所副所长 首席宏观分析师 张瑜：我们从过去一二十年简单的商品和市场对外开放，已经 进入制度开放，所以我们是对标全球最高标准的经贸规则，去做整个制度开放的，那可能DEPA（《数 字经济伙伴关系协定》）、CPTPP（《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》）将来都是要重点推进的国 际制度合作的标本，其中包括劳动保护、环境标准、产业补贴，包括一些政策，都会跟整个国际的最高 标准衔接，这才是更高意义上"十五五"开放性质的变化。 在"制度型开放"框架下，"十五五"期间我国对外开放的路径逐步清晰。张瑜认为，未来开放将呈现两大 新特征。 （央视财经《经济信息联播》）面对当前复杂多变的外部环境，中国应该如何进一步走好开放之路？华 创证券研究所副所长张瑜在接受采访时表示，"十五五"期间，我国对外开放将从商品和市场开放进一步 迈向"制度型开放"，形成更加系统、高标准的国际合作新格局。 华创证券研究所副所长 首席宏观分析师 张瑜：我觉得中国整个大的出口，包括对外合作，在未来几 年，空间依然非常巨大，而且整个韧性会非常强。中国是全球最大的生产、制造大国。只要海外需求是 稳步向上的，不管是新兴市场国家的初级城镇化，有一个产业周期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the importance of expanding high-level opening-up and stabilizing foreign trade and investment, highlighting the significance of integrated domestic and foreign trade, with intermediate goods trade playing a crucial role in connecting production links and promoting industrial chain collaboration [1] Group 1: Importance of Intermediate Goods Trade - Intermediate goods trade is a product of deepening domestic and international division of labor and technology diffusion, serving as the underlying logic for continuous industrial chain upgrades [1] - By 2024, China's import and export of intermediate goods is expected to account for about 60% of total foreign trade, with electromechanical intermediate goods exports exceeding 50%, particularly in new materials and new energy sectors showing significant growth [1][2] - This trend reflects China's leap towards higher value-added segments of the industrial chain and creates conditions for more stable upstream and downstream cooperation networks among domestic enterprises [1] Group 2: Economic Significance of Intermediate Goods Trade - Strengthening the resilience of domestic industrial chains by connecting raw material supply, component processing, and end manufacturing, thus maintaining overall stability in the industrial chain [2] - Promoting technology diffusion and innovation, where high-tech intermediate goods exports reflect domestic technological accumulation, facilitating faster technology innovation and upgrades across the industrial chain [2] - Driving economies of scale and cost optimization, as intermediate goods trade expands market demand and allows enterprises to lower costs through larger-scale production, enhancing competitiveness [2] Group 3: Strategies for Development - Accelerating the structural upgrade of intermediate goods trade by shifting from primary products to semi-finished and high value-added components, with increased R&D support in green manufacturing, digital technology, and intelligent equipment [3] - Improving the policy support system by unifying statistics, classifications, tariffs, and financial policies to better support small and medium-sized enterprises in participating in domestic and international industrial chains [3] - Building a tighter regional collaboration network by leveraging the advantages of different regions in industrial structure, technology levels, and resource endowments to form a closed supply chain within the country [3] Group 4: Systematic Mechanism Support - Establishing a comprehensive support system for strategic intermediate goods from R&D to export, optimizing industrial policies [4] - Strengthening domestic and international rule coordination and promoting regional agreements to include facilitation of intermediate goods, reducing institutional friction [4] - Enhancing the voice and collaboration mechanisms in the industrial chain through industry associations and leading enterprises to align domestic standards with international standards, transforming them into industrial advantages [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the importance of expanding high-level opening-up and stabilizing foreign trade and investment, highlighting the significance of integrated domestic and foreign trade, with intermediate goods trade playing a crucial role in connecting production links and promoting industrial chain collaboration [1] Group 1: Importance of Intermediate Goods Trade - Intermediate goods trade is a product of deepening domestic and international division of labor and technology diffusion, serving as the underlying logic for continuous industrial chain upgrades [2] - By 2024, China's import and export of intermediate goods is expected to account for about 60% of total foreign trade, with electromechanical intermediate goods exports exceeding 50%, particularly in new materials and new energy sectors showing significant growth [1][2] Group 2: Economic Significance - Strengthening domestic industrial chain resilience by connecting raw material supply, component processing, and end manufacturing, which helps mitigate risks from disruptions in single links [2] - Promoting technology diffusion and innovation, where high-tech intermediate goods exports reflect domestic technological accumulation, facilitating faster technology spread through upstream and downstream collaboration [2] - Driving economies of scale and cost optimization, as intermediate goods trade expands market demand and allows companies to produce at larger scales, enhancing competitiveness and overall efficiency of the domestic industrial system [2] Group 3: Strategies for Development - Accelerating the structural upgrade of intermediate goods trade by shifting focus from primary products to semi-finished and high-value-added components, with increased R&D support in green manufacturing, digital technology, and intelligent equipment [3] - Improving the policy support system by unifying statistics, classifications, tariffs, and financial policies to better support small and medium-sized enterprises in participating in domestic and international industrial chains [3] - Building a tighter regional collaboration network by leveraging the unique advantages of different regions in industrial structure, technology level, and resource endowment to form a closed supply chain within the country [3] Group 4: Systematic Mechanism Assurance - Establishing a comprehensive support system for strategic intermediate goods from R&D to export, optimizing industrial policies, and enhancing coordination of domestic and international rules [4] - Strengthening the voice and collaboration mechanisms in the industrial chain through industry associations and leading enterprises to align domestic standards with international standards, transforming them into industrial advantages [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent trade tensions, particularly the U.S. tariffs on imports from China, and their potential impact on global trade dynamics and market behavior [3][4][5]. Group 1: Trade Tensions and Market Reactions - The recent announcement by the State Council Tariff Commission regarding increased tariffs on certain U.S. imports has led to significant market reactions, particularly in futures contracts [3]. - The futures market interprets these developments as an escalation of the "trade war," which may weaken trade demand further [4]. - The article suggests that while trade tensions may negatively impact trade efficiency, they could paradoxically increase maritime transport demand due to the complexities introduced by tariffs [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The article highlights that changes in tariffs may serve more as a domestic propaganda tool and a bargaining chip in international negotiations, with effects dependent on the comparative strengths of the negotiating parties [5]. - It notes that U.S. consumers are purchasing cheaper goods at an unusual rate, which could be influenced by high inflation and its adverse effects on government approval ratings [5]. Group 3: Trade Dynamics - The article emphasizes that the short-term trade disputes between the U.S. and China are relatively independent of the trade demand between China and Europe [6]. - It points out that the use of smaller vessels on U.S. West and East Coast routes, as opposed to larger vessels on China-Europe routes, could lead to inefficiencies in trade logistics [6]. - Recent diplomatic tensions may inadvertently promote the development of China-Europe trade [6]. Group 4: Market Strategies - The article advises a flexible approach to participating in futures markets, particularly regarding contracts 06 and 08, emphasizing the importance of cost management and risk control [7]. - It predicts that the spot market may experience a low point between 1480 and 1650 points during the off-season from February to April, suggesting a cautious outlook on specific contracts [8]. - The article reiterates the strategy of being bullish without taking excessive risks, advocating for a "sell first, buy later" approach in the current market environment [8].