Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the importance of expanding high-level opening-up and stabilizing foreign trade and investment, highlighting the significance of integrated domestic and foreign trade, with intermediate goods trade playing a crucial role in connecting production links and promoting industrial chain collaboration [1] Group 1: Importance of Intermediate Goods Trade - Intermediate goods trade is a product of deepening domestic and international division of labor and technology diffusion, serving as the underlying logic for continuous industrial chain upgrades [2] - By 2024, China's import and export of intermediate goods is expected to account for about 60% of total foreign trade, with electromechanical intermediate goods exports exceeding 50%, particularly in new materials and new energy sectors showing significant growth [1][2] Group 2: Economic Significance - Strengthening domestic industrial chain resilience by connecting raw material supply, component processing, and end manufacturing, which helps mitigate risks from disruptions in single links [2] - Promoting technology diffusion and innovation, where high-tech intermediate goods exports reflect domestic technological accumulation, facilitating faster technology spread through upstream and downstream collaboration [2] - Driving economies of scale and cost optimization, as intermediate goods trade expands market demand and allows companies to produce at larger scales, enhancing competitiveness and overall efficiency of the domestic industrial system [2] Group 3: Strategies for Development - Accelerating the structural upgrade of intermediate goods trade by shifting focus from primary products to semi-finished and high-value-added components, with increased R&D support in green manufacturing, digital technology, and intelligent equipment [3] - Improving the policy support system by unifying statistics, classifications, tariffs, and financial policies to better support small and medium-sized enterprises in participating in domestic and international industrial chains [3] - Building a tighter regional collaboration network by leveraging the unique advantages of different regions in industrial structure, technology level, and resource endowment to form a closed supply chain within the country [3] Group 4: Systematic Mechanism Assurance - Establishing a comprehensive support system for strategic intermediate goods from R&D to export, optimizing industrial policies, and enhancing coordination of domestic and international rules [4] - Strengthening the voice and collaboration mechanisms in the industrial chain through industry associations and leading enterprises to align domestic standards with international standards, transforming them into industrial advantages [4]

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者陈宇灏 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带到任 何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 让我们回到集运欧线期货对应的中欧贸易，其一，中美短期的贸易争端本身与中欧贸易需求相对独立；其二，美西、美东航线使用船只 整体偏小，往往是中欧航线的大型船只调往中美航线赚取超额利益，反向调动有较大的效率损失；其三，结合近期外交谈判上的种种龃 龉，当前的变化可能从外部性角度推动中欧贸易发展。 对于期货市场本身来说，此类波动便应验了我们春节后始终强调的"以灵活态度参与06、08的多头思路问题（成本、风控等）"。 单从现货角度出发， 我们认为2~4月春节后淡季的现货（SCFIS指数）低谷期可能在1480~1650点区间。 在持仓量偏低，市场波动较大的情况下，06、08的支撑位较难具体分析。 考虑到我们对于06、08、12合约终点较高的预期，我们在春 节假期前始终坚持的看多不做多、先空后多等思路可能需要再次被提出。 联 ...