"黑天鹅"突袭，多个市场的"瑞士概念股"全线大跌。 因上周五（8月1日）假期休市，瑞士股市对美国总统特朗普宣布的39%关税的反应要到本周一开盘后才会显现。 在此之前，市场的一致预期是，瑞士有望与欧盟、英国、日本类似，和美国达成一个框架协议，将关税水平维持在 10%至15%之间。 据央视新闻最新消息，美国贸易代表格里尔表示，特朗普上周对多国加征的新一轮关税"基本已定"，不会在当前 谈判中作出调整，包括对从加拿大进口的商品征收35%关税、对巴西征收50%关税、对印度征收25%关税、对瑞士征 收39%关税。格里尔称，部分关税是根据双边贸易盈余与赤字情况设定，"这些税率基本已经固定"。 有分析称，这对瑞士股市而言，无疑是"黑天鹅"事件，对瑞士经济与企业是"毁灭性打击"，将冲击特别依赖出口 的瑞士股市。受此影响，在其他市场交易的"瑞士概念股"8月1日全线大跌，例如，瑞银集团在美股盘中一度大跌近 4%，在英国伦敦交易的瑞士钟表集团大跌6.8%。 在此之前，市场普遍预期是，瑞士有望与欧盟、英国、日本类似，达成一个框架协议，将关税水平维持在10%至 15%之间。 这对瑞士股市而言，无疑是"黑天鹅"事件。瑞士咨询公司Porta ...

Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The new tariff rates will increase to 15% for most countries and regions, with some major trade partners receiving lower rates between 10% and 20% due to investment commitments to the U.S. [2] - Countries that did not make sufficient concessions in recent negotiations face significantly higher tariffs, such as Canada at 35% and Brazil at 50% [4] Group 2: Historical Context - The new tariffs will raise the U.S. actual tariff rate to 17%, the highest since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1933, which exacerbated the Great Depression [5][6] - The actual tariff rate was only 1.2% last year, indicating a dramatic shift in trade policy that could reshape multinational production and trade cost structures [7] Group 3: Impact on U.S. Companies - U.S. companies are becoming the largest "taxpayers" under the new tariff regime, with tariff revenue soaring to $27 billion in June, nearly four times that of the previous year [8] - Companies like Ford and Hasbro are already adjusting their financial forecasts due to increased costs from tariffs, with Ford estimating an additional $800 million in expenses [9] Group 4: Consumer Impact - Retail giants like Walmart and Target are currently managing costs through inventory but are expected to raise prices as tariffs take effect, with a significant portion of manufacturers already beginning to pass on costs [9][10] - The inflationary effects of the tariffs are anticipated to become more pronounced in the fourth quarter of this year and into the first quarter of next year, impacting consumer prices directly [10] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The new tariffs are expected to erode corporate profits and market confidence, leading to potential cuts in investment and hiring by U.S. companies [10] - The overall economic impact is still being assessed, but early signs indicate that the tariffs are reigniting inflation and could slow economic growth [10]

尼日利亚非洲经济研究中心研究员安东尼.布松表示，美国滥施关税是一种贸易保护主义，是对全球贸 易生态系统的破坏，世界各国应该携手努力，推动全球贸易一体化。布松认为，美国政府应该重新审视 他们的关税政策。他说："对不同国家设定"基准关税"和"对等关税"，我们认为这是政策缺陷，它甚至 会对最不发达国家产生影响。比如，根据非洲过去两年的贸易情况来看，该政策对非洲的影响就很大， 特朗普总统需要冷静下来，重新审视这项政策。我们应该走向全球合作，而不是走向孤立主义。"(央视 新闻) ...