Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Due to the worsening Middle - East conflicts, the oil price has a large upward space. It is recommended to go long in the 700 - 850 range for short - term operations and stay on the sidelines for long - term operations [7] Summary by Directory 1. Review - Last week, crude oil prices continued to rise due to the deterioration of the Middle - East conflict. The New York Mercantile Exchange's main light crude oil futures closed at $91.27 per barrel, up 35.64% for the week; Brent crude oil futures closed at $93.32 per barrel, up 27.47% for the week; China's crude oil futures SC main contract closed at 753.4 yuan per barrel, up 54.26% for the week [5] - Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery was shut down after a drone attack. The conflict in the Middle - East has expanded to energy infrastructure, increasing the risk of energy supply disruption and global economic impact. Many shipping insurance companies have cancelled war - risk coverage for relevant vessels [5] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely hampered exports from the world's most important oil - producing region. Consumption countries are seeking alternative supply sources, and global inflation risks have increased [5] - Kuwait Petroleum Corporation has declared force majeure. Kuwait's production cut started at about 100,000 barrels per day on Saturday and is expected to triple on Sunday. The subsequent production cut will depend on storage levels and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz [6] - The UAE is adjusting its offshore production levels to meet storage needs. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has an alternative pipeline, but it cannot fully replace the Strait of Hormuz [6] - Saudi Arabia has diverted some crude oil exports to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast to avoid risks in the Strait of Hormuz [6] - The US is considering sending ground troops to Iran, and one option is to send special operations forces to destroy key nuclear facilities in Iran [6] 2. Related Information - Not specifically presented in a separate part, but related information is included in the "Review" section 3. Outlook - The situation in the Middle - East is still deteriorating. It is expected that shipping and energy production problems in the Strait of Hormuz will persist, and oil prices have a large upward space [7] - Short - term operation: go long in the 700 - 850 range; long - term operation: stay on the sidelines [7] 4. Fundamental Data - **Spot Weekly Prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties have increased. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $71.84 to $85.41, with a rise of 18.89%; WTI increased from $65.92 to $78.47, with a rise of 19.04% [10] - **Cushing Inventory**: The inventory has fluctuated. For example, on December 12, it was 20.862 million barrels, with a decrease of 742,000 barrels compared to the previous period [11] - **EIA Inventory**: The inventory has also fluctuated. For example, on December 26, it was 422.888 million barrels, with a decrease of 1.934 million barrels compared to the previous period [12] 5.持仓 Data - **CFTC Fund Net Long Positions**: As of March 3, the net long positions of WTI crude oil decreased by 562 contracts to 172,150 contracts [5][18] - **ICE Fund Net Long Positions**: As of March 3, the net long positions of Brent crude oil decreased by 35,358 contracts to 285,594 contracts [5][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Iran situation has escalated, affecting energy and production facilities in the Middle East and surrounding areas, with potential impacts on oil, methanol, LPG, precious metals, and shipping sectors. Crude oil and gold may rise in the short - term, but there is a "sell - the - fact" risk. The conflict may further increase global inflation risk [1]. - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, while after the Two Sessions, the stock index recovers. The US GDP in Q4 2025 was lower than expected, and the Fed is cautious about the Middle East situation and not in a hurry to adjust monetary policy [2]. - There are opportunities for bottom - up allocation in the commodity market. Different commodity sectors have different investment focuses, such as long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector and the need to monitor the Iran situation in the energy sector [3]. - The strategy is to go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Iran situation escalated on February 28 with US - Israeli air strikes on Iran. The conflict has damaged energy and production facilities, and the scope of the conflict is expanding. Key factors include whether the conflict turns into a ground war and the situation of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil and gold may rise in the short - term, and the event may increase global inflation risk [1]. - The Two Sessions in China are being held. Historically, during the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, and after the Two Sessions, the stock index recovers. The US GDP in Q4 2025 was lower than expected, and the Fed is cautious about the Middle East situation [2]. Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals have long - term supply constraints. Precious metals have allocation value after the adjustment. In the energy sector, the short - term Iran situation needs attention, and there is a "sell - the - fact" risk. OPEC+ will increase production from April. Chemical products like PTA and PVC are relatively resistant to decline. Agricultural products need to consider weather and pig disease, and the black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [3]. Strategy - Go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and some chemical products on dips [4]. News - Trump instructed companies to provide insurance for maritime trade in the Gulf and may escort oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian military said ships in the Strait may face risks. The Fed said the Iran war adds new variables to monetary policy. The 14th National People's Congress Fourth Session will be held from March 5th to 12th. Iraqi oil fields are shutting down, and European natural gas prices have soared. Saudi Aramco has adjusted its oil shipment operations. China's February RatingDog comprehensive PMI reached a 33 - month high [5].

Core Insights - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) annual report indicates that the disruptive trade policies of the United States are exacerbating global inflation risks and exposing the vulnerabilities of the global economy [1] - The report suggests that a "soft landing" was achievable, but tariff threats have interrupted this process, making it more difficult for multiple countries to achieve their 2% inflation targets [1]

Gold Market - Gold prices dropped sharply as the market's risk aversion decreased following the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, leading to increased selling pressure [1] - The ceasefire has reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East, resulting in a significant decline in global inflation risks and a shift in investor preference towards higher-yielding assets like stocks [1] - Market sentiment has improved, and it is likely that funds will continue to flow out of gold, making it less attractive in the near term [1] - Technical analysis indicates a high probability of a large bearish candle on the daily chart, with potential short-term support at the long-term moving average [1] Oil Market - Oil prices reversed their upward trend due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which had previously threatened oil transportation [2] - The likelihood of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from over 50% to 4% as the conflict subsides, removing the rationale for rising oil prices [2] - Despite the reduction in geopolitical risks, the fundamental outlook for oil remains weak due to oversupply, and OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production, limiting price rebounds [2] - Technical indicators suggest a high probability of a large bearish candle on the daily chart, with potential short-term resistance at $67.20 [2] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown signs of consolidation with small fluctuations, supported by long-term moving averages [3] - The 4-hour chart indicates a clear upward shift in price action, suggesting a potential for continued volatility around the support level of $4.80 [3] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index is at a high price level with a bullish moving average arrangement, indicating a strong potential for continuation of the upward trend [4] - However, the index may face a pullback after failing to challenge previous highs, with short-term support around 38,130 [4]