1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as the Fed's attitude, domestic PMI data, and policy expectations. Different asset classes show different trends, with short - term volatility and varying degrees of risk and opportunity [2][3] - For commodities, different sectors like black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, which are influenced by both macro and micro factors [4][8][12][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, the dollar index is strengthening due to Powell's hawkish attitude, and global risk appetite is cooling. Domestically, the October PMI is 49.0%, down 0.8% from last month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Policy stimulus expectations are increasing. Index futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and government bonds may rebound slightly. For commodities, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors may fluctuate, while precious metals may correct at high levels [2] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as insurance, semiconductors, and small metals, the domestic stock market continued to decline. The weakening PMI data dampened market sentiment, but policy stimulus expectations may boost risk appetite. Short - term caution and wait - and - see are recommended [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Friday night. The Fed's hawkish attitude and strong dollar index led to an overall shock adjustment of spot gold. In the short term, precious metals may fluctuate, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term wait - and - see and medium - to - long - term buying on dips are advised [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot market was flat last Friday, and the futures price declined slightly. Real demand is improving marginally, and speculative demand has also increased. However, steel mill profits are being compressed, and environmental restrictions may reduce supply. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price fell slightly last Friday, while the futures price strengthened. Macro expectations and reduced arrivals led to a recent rebound. But steel mill profits are low, and iron ore supply pressure is large. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price was flat last Friday, and the futures price declined slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is acceptable. The supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the price of silicon iron raw materials was stable. The futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [6] - **Soda Ash**: The futures contract fluctuated last week. Supply is increasing, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter. Demand is stable. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing the price, and a bearish view is recommended [7] - **Glass**: The futures contract fluctuated last week. Supply was stable, demand was weak, and inventory was high. Supported by policies, it may be slightly stronger in the short term, and the demand during the year - end completion peak needs attention [7] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The macro - environment has weakened. The Fed's attitude and China's PMI data are not optimistic. US copper inventories are high, and domestic de - stocking is not as expected. However, the suspension of an Indonesian copper mine may support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8] - **Aluminum**: The price reached a one - year high last Friday and then declined. The Fed's attitude and market sentiment affected the price. The fundamentals changed little, and overseas and domestic de - stocking was not as expected [8] - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate is at a high level, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is still weak, and the high price suppresses consumption. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short to medium term [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production decreased slightly, and the price of raw materials increased. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is decreasing. Due to rumors and hedging pressure, light - position wait - and - see is recommended [10] - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reached a new high. Supply pressure comes from Xinjiang, and demand is stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and buying on dips is recommended [10][11] - **Polysilicon**: The inventory decreased significantly, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. The policy expectation and weak reality are in a stalemate. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [11] Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is concerned about the lack of significant transfer of Asia - Pacific procurement after Russian oil sanctions. OPEC+ is increasing production, but geopolitical risks may cause a short - term rebound. The long - term price is expected to be bearish [12] - **Asphalt**: The cost support is weakening, and the price is falling. The inventory is being reduced, but the demand is approaching the off - season. The supply pressure is temporarily reduced, but the future trend depends on the rebound of crude oil [12] - **PX**: The crude oil price is fluctuating weakly. PTA's high start - up rate provides some demand support. The PXN spread has rebounded slightly, and the price is mainly driven by crude oil costs [13] - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, and the basis has improved. But the supply is still high, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large in November [13] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased, but the arrival volume is high. The inventory accumulation pressure is large in November, and the price is testing the previous low [13] - **Short Fiber**: It fluctuates with the polyester sector in the short term, but the pressure is large in the later period. Terminal orders are decreasing seasonally, and the inventory is accumulating [14][15] - **Methanol**: The market shows regional differentiation. The port inventory is decreasing slightly, while the inland inventory is increasing. The price may decline in the short term but is expected to enter a consolidation phase later [15] - **PP**: The supply growth rate is higher than the demand recovery rate, and the inventory is high. However, the demand is improving marginally, and the crude oil price provides some cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15] - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken after the peak in early November. The crude oil price provides limited support, and the price is expected to be under pressure [16] - **Urea**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The export is expected to remain at a low level [16] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The Sino - US trade window may open, and China's purchase plan may lead to an increase in export expectations. If the yield is further reduced, the cost - repair logic will be strengthened, and the price may continue to rise [17] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the supply of soybean meal is abundant. The improvement of Sino - US trade relations may increase the cost of imported soybeans but reduce the risk of supply shortage. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [17] - **Palm Oil**: It has entered a technically oversold stage. Although there was over - production in October, the price may be supported by the increase in international oil and crude oil prices, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains [18][19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by the decline of palm and rapeseed oil, the price may continue to weaken. It is in the consumption season, and the high inventory of rapeseed oil is being reduced [19] - **Corn**: The pressure of wet grain sales is decreasing, and the spot price is stable. The futures price is weak, but the bottom - range support may be effective [19] - **Pigs**: The overall slaughter volume is expected to increase in November, and the profit is in a loss state. The pig price is unlikely to rebound significantly before the winter solstice in December [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the missile strike by Iran on a U.S. military base in Qatar, and its implications on oil prices and market sentiment. The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, as stated by U.S. President Trump, has led to a significant decrease in geopolitical risk premiums in the oil market, resulting in a drop in oil prices and a rise in U.S. stock indices [1][2][5]. Oil Market - Oil prices fell by 5.65% in the overnight session following Trump's announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which is expected to reduce geopolitical risk [2][11]. - The OPEC+ group may accelerate its production increase plans by about a year, responding to the current market conditions [2][11]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have retreated due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which is influenced by inflation data and ongoing trade uncertainties [3][17]. - Despite long-term support for gold prices, the current high levels have led to hesitation in upward movement, while silver has shown limited upward momentum after a recent rally [3][17]. Coal and Coke - Coal production is recovering as some previously halted mines resume operations, leading to improved market conditions with reduced auction prices and lower overall transaction failure rates [4][23]. - The coke market is experiencing a seasonal decline in iron production, and while there is no immediate reversal in trends, the situation remains volatile due to fluctuating energy prices [4][23]. Industry News - As of the end of May, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, marking an 18.8% year-on-year increase, with solar and wind power capacities growing significantly [7].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown a weak adjustment pattern, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with expectations of only two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [2][4] - The recent price drop reached a low of 3342, with a critical support level at this point, indicating potential for further declines if broken [2][4] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with MACD showing a death cross formation and downward momentum [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have experienced a weekly increase of 3.9%, despite a slight pullback on Friday, driven by geopolitical risks, particularly tensions between Israel and Iran [5][6] - The current focus in the oil market has shifted from supply-demand fundamentals to geopolitical risks, with potential for significant price volatility if conflicts escalate [5] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish medium-term trend, with MACD showing strong upward momentum, although short-term fluctuations are expected [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level oscillations. Long - term strategic allocation value is high due to international order changes. Silver will have range adjustments. Copper: long - term optimism remains, but short - term recommends taking profits on long positions. Zinc: suggests holding short positions as supply increases and demand weakens. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel prices are under pressure. Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are bearish [1]. - Gold prices may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term. After the adjustment, there is a long - term upward trend. Silver may continue to oscillate within the range of [8000, 8200] [3]. - Copper rebounds in the short term, and long - term prospects are positive. Zinc is in a bearish situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. Aluminum price rebounds are under pressure. Nickel and stainless steel are recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Lithium carbonate's fundamentals are bearish [7][10][14][16]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Core View**: High - level oscillations [1]. - **Main Logic**: Tariff negotiation setbacks, US bank downgrades, and progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations. The long - term driver is international order change. Attention should be paid to the support around 740 - 750. The price range is [744 - 767] [1]. - **Market Data**: SHFE gold is at 755.86 (up 0.54% from the previous value and down 2.13% week - on - week), COMEX gold is at 3231 (up 0.80% from the previous value and down 0.34% week - on - week). Gold ETFs are at 921.03 tons (down 21.09 tons week - on - week), and gold COMEX net long positions are at 161209 (down 1288 from the previous value and down 2109 week - on - week) [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then consider long - term entry [3]. Silver - **Core View**: Range adjustments [1]. - **Main Logic**: Doubts about PV demand in April data in China and the impact of national fiscal tariffs. It is sensitive to financial and commodity attributes and is greatly affected by gold and base metals. The price range is [8000 - 8200] [1]. - **Market Data**: SHFE silver is at 8133 (up 0.40% from the previous value and down 1.20% week - on - week), COMEX silver is at 33 (up 0.25% from the previous value and down 0.87% week - on - week) [2]. - **Strategy**: May continue to oscillate within the range of [8000, 8200] in the short term [3]. Copper - **Core View**: Take profits on long positions in the short term, long - term optimism [1]. - **Main Logic**: US economic data shows resilience, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation declines, and the strong dollar suppresses copper prices. High copper prices inhibit demand. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories. Long - term, global copper mines are in short supply. The SHFE copper price range is [77800, 78800] [1][7]. - **Market Data**: SHFE copper closes at 78160 (up 0.54% from the previous day), LME copper is at 9516 (up 0.73% from the previous day). Social inventory is 13.92 million tons [6]. - **Strategy**: Take partial profits on long positions at high levels in the short term. Long - term, there is confidence in the upward trend. SHFE copper focuses on the range [77800, 78800], and LME copper focuses on [9400, 9800] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Core View**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Main Logic**: The zinc ore supply is loosening in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot production is high, and downstream demand is weak. The SHFE zinc price range is [22000, 22600] [1][9]. - **Market Data**: SHFE zinc closes at 22405 (down 0.27% from the previous day), LME zinc is at 2672.5 (down 0.50% from the previous day). SMM seven - region social inventory is 8.38 million tons [9]. - **Strategy**: Continue to hold short positions. Long - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. SHFE zinc focuses on [22000, 22600], and LME zinc focuses on [2600, 2700] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Core View**: Price rebounds are under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas bauxite supply in Guinea is disrupted, alumina prices rise, and downstream aluminum processing enterprise operations decline. The price range is [19800 - 20300] [1]. - **Market Data**: LME aluminum closes at 2473 (down 0.46% from the previous value), SHFE aluminum closes at 20110 (down 0.10% from the previous value). SMM aluminum ingot social inventory is 58.1 million tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, focus on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19800 - 20500] [12]. Nickel - **Core View**: Price is under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: News of a mining ban in the Philippines and an increase in nickel ore royalties in Indonesia support the cost. However, domestic refined nickel production increases, and stainless - steel inventory pressure remains. The price range is [121000 - 126000] [1]. - **Market Data**: LME nickel closes at 15605 (down 1.27% from the previous value), SHFE nickel closes at 123850 (down 0.17% from the previous value). SMM pure nickel social inventory is 44151 tons [13]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds, focus on downstream consumption. The main operating range is [120000 - 129000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Bearish [1]. - **Main Logic**: Supply remains sufficient as there is no large - scale production cut. Demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is lowering demand expectations. The price range is [60000 - 62500] [1][16]. - **Market Data**: The main contract LC2507 is at 61180 (down 1.00% from the previous value). Weekly production is 15843 tons (down 1.28% from the previous week), and weekly inventory is 131920 tons (up 0.27% from the previous week) [15]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [16].