Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the missile strike by Iran on a U.S. military base in Qatar, and its implications on oil prices and market sentiment. The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, as stated by U.S. President Trump, has led to a significant decrease in geopolitical risk premiums in the oil market, resulting in a drop in oil prices and a rise in U.S. stock indices [1][2][5]. Oil Market - Oil prices fell by 5.65% in the overnight session following Trump's announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which is expected to reduce geopolitical risk [2][11]. - The OPEC+ group may accelerate its production increase plans by about a year, responding to the current market conditions [2][11]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have retreated due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which is influenced by inflation data and ongoing trade uncertainties [3][17]. - Despite long-term support for gold prices, the current high levels have led to hesitation in upward movement, while silver has shown limited upward momentum after a recent rally [3][17]. Coal and Coke - Coal production is recovering as some previously halted mines resume operations, leading to improved market conditions with reduced auction prices and lower overall transaction failure rates [4][23]. - The coke market is experiencing a seasonal decline in iron production, and while there is no immediate reversal in trends, the situation remains volatile due to fluctuating energy prices [4][23]. Industry News - As of the end of May, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, marking an 18.8% year-on-year increase, with solar and wind power capacities growing significantly [7].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown a weak adjustment pattern, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with expectations of only two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [2][4] - The recent price drop reached a low of 3342, with a critical support level at this point, indicating potential for further declines if broken [2][4] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with MACD showing a death cross formation and downward momentum [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have experienced a weekly increase of 3.9%, despite a slight pullback on Friday, driven by geopolitical risks, particularly tensions between Israel and Iran [5][6] - The current focus in the oil market has shifted from supply-demand fundamentals to geopolitical risks, with potential for significant price volatility if conflicts escalate [5] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish medium-term trend, with MACD showing strong upward momentum, although short-term fluctuations are expected [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level oscillations. Long - term strategic allocation value is high due to international order changes. Silver will have range adjustments. Copper: long - term optimism remains, but short - term recommends taking profits on long positions. Zinc: suggests holding short positions as supply increases and demand weakens. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel prices are under pressure. Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are bearish [1]. - Gold prices may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term. After the adjustment, there is a long - term upward trend. Silver may continue to oscillate within the range of [8000, 8200] [3]. - Copper rebounds in the short term, and long - term prospects are positive. Zinc is in a bearish situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. Aluminum price rebounds are under pressure. Nickel and stainless steel are recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Lithium carbonate's fundamentals are bearish [7][10][14][16]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Core View**: High - level oscillations [1]. - **Main Logic**: Tariff negotiation setbacks, US bank downgrades, and progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations. The long - term driver is international order change. Attention should be paid to the support around 740 - 750. The price range is [744 - 767] [1]. - **Market Data**: SHFE gold is at 755.86 (up 0.54% from the previous value and down 2.13% week - on - week), COMEX gold is at 3231 (up 0.80% from the previous value and down 0.34% week - on - week). Gold ETFs are at 921.03 tons (down 21.09 tons week - on - week), and gold COMEX net long positions are at 161209 (down 1288 from the previous value and down 2109 week - on - week) [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then consider long - term entry [3]. Silver - **Core View**: Range adjustments [1]. - **Main Logic**: Doubts about PV demand in April data in China and the impact of national fiscal tariffs. It is sensitive to financial and commodity attributes and is greatly affected by gold and base metals. The price range is [8000 - 8200] [1]. - **Market Data**: SHFE silver is at 8133 (up 0.40% from the previous value and down 1.20% week - on - week), COMEX silver is at 33 (up 0.25% from the previous value and down 0.87% week - on - week) [2]. - **Strategy**: May continue to oscillate within the range of [8000, 8200] in the short term [3]. Copper - **Core View**: Take profits on long positions in the short term, long - term optimism [1]. - **Main Logic**: US economic data shows resilience, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation declines, and the strong dollar suppresses copper prices. High copper prices inhibit demand. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories. Long - term, global copper mines are in short supply. The SHFE copper price range is [77800, 78800] [1][7]. - **Market Data**: SHFE copper closes at 78160 (up 0.54% from the previous day), LME copper is at 9516 (up 0.73% from the previous day). Social inventory is 13.92 million tons [6]. - **Strategy**: Take partial profits on long positions at high levels in the short term. Long - term, there is confidence in the upward trend. SHFE copper focuses on the range [77800, 78800], and LME copper focuses on [9400, 9800] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Core View**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Main Logic**: The zinc ore supply is loosening in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot production is high, and downstream demand is weak. The SHFE zinc price range is [22000, 22600] [1][9]. - **Market Data**: SHFE zinc closes at 22405 (down 0.27% from the previous day), LME zinc is at 2672.5 (down 0.50% from the previous day). SMM seven - region social inventory is 8.38 million tons [9]. - **Strategy**: Continue to hold short positions. Long - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. SHFE zinc focuses on [22000, 22600], and LME zinc focuses on [2600, 2700] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Core View**: Price rebounds are under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas bauxite supply in Guinea is disrupted, alumina prices rise, and downstream aluminum processing enterprise operations decline. The price range is [19800 - 20300] [1]. - **Market Data**: LME aluminum closes at 2473 (down 0.46% from the previous value), SHFE aluminum closes at 20110 (down 0.10% from the previous value). SMM aluminum ingot social inventory is 58.1 million tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, focus on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19800 - 20500] [12]. Nickel - **Core View**: Price is under pressure [1]. - **Main Logic**: News of a mining ban in the Philippines and an increase in nickel ore royalties in Indonesia support the cost. However, domestic refined nickel production increases, and stainless - steel inventory pressure remains. The price range is [121000 - 126000] [1]. - **Market Data**: LME nickel closes at 15605 (down 1.27% from the previous value), SHFE nickel closes at 123850 (down 0.17% from the previous value). SMM pure nickel social inventory is 44151 tons [13]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds, focus on downstream consumption. The main operating range is [120000 - 129000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Bearish [1]. - **Main Logic**: Supply remains sufficient as there is no large - scale production cut. Demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is lowering demand expectations. The price range is [60000 - 62500] [1][16]. - **Market Data**: The main contract LC2507 is at 61180 (down 1.00% from the previous value). Weekly production is 15843 tons (down 1.28% from the previous week), and weekly inventory is 131920 tons (up 0.27% from the previous week) [15]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [16].