Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the June meeting, reflecting a more positive outlook on economic uncertainty[5] - The Fed revised down the 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.3% to 1.4% and raised the core PCE inflation forecast by 0.3% to 3.1%[3] - The updated dot plot indicates two potential rate cuts in 2025, with reductions in 2026 and 2027 dropping from two to one[3] Group 2: Inflation and Tariff Impact - The Fed remains vigilant about the transmission of high tariffs to inflation levels, with a weak expression regarding the restrictiveness of monetary policy[3] - High tariffs are expected to impact inflation levels significantly, with consumer prices likely to rise as companies pass on costs to consumers[8] - The anticipated increase in tariffs may lead to a more pronounced inflationary effect in the summer months[8] Group 3: Market Implications and Risks - The potential introduction of tariff hedging policies in the second half of the year may benefit dollar assets, particularly U.S. equities, as they catch up with other markets[3] - Emerging markets, excluding China, may face increased pressure on corporate earnings and stock valuations due to the anticipated economic conditions[3] - Risks include a potential price war in the oil market and systemic financial risks in emerging markets[3]

4月9日，美国对中国"对等关税"生效，同时宣布暂停其他国家和地区的"对等关税"90天。 "对等关 税"的本质不是贸易，而是博弈。 在中国宣布反制"对等关税"之后，其他国家的态度也在发生变化。英国表示，要与中国建立更深层次 的伙伴关系，而非设置新的障碍。欧盟表示，愿同中方推进各领域高层对话，深化经贸、绿色经济、气 候变化等领域互利合作。日本表示，在美日贸易谈判上不打算做出重大让步，也不会急于达成协议。 美国挥舞关税大棒加速了全球贸易秩序的重构，也对美元体系为核心的货币秩序形成重要影响，这对中 国而言是重要的历史机遇。 近期的政策动向也印证了外交是当前的头等大事。 "对等关税"落地的4月9日，中央周边工作会议在北 京召开，明确要"聚焦构建周边命运共同体"。 与非美国家的外交成果决定了政策是对冲短期出口下 滑，还是应对长期外部风险。 中国与非美国家的外交关系越巩固，美国单方面加征关税对中国出口的 冲击越小，博弈的天平也会进一步朝着中国倾斜，对应的稳增长压力也越小。反之，超常规的政策"组 合拳"可能加快落地。 4月14日至18日，总书记对越南、马来西亚和柬埔寨进行国事访问，取得了丰硕的成果。中越发布 《关于持续深化全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" on China's economy and the importance of diplomatic relations and timely policy responses to mitigate the effects of these tariffs [2][3]. Group 1: Diplomatic Efforts - Diplomatic work is prioritized to counter tariff impacts, with recent visits by Chinese leaders to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia resulting in significant agreements to deepen strategic partnerships [4]. - The response from other countries to China's diplomatic overtures has been positive, with the UK, EU, and Japan expressing intentions to strengthen ties rather than impose new barriers [3]. Group 2: Policy Measures - Timely reserve policies are being implemented to manage expectations and liquidity, with a focus on stabilizing the stock and real estate markets [5][6]. - The government emphasizes the importance of stabilizing market expectations, with recent meetings highlighting the need for proactive policy measures to positively influence market sentiment [6][7]. Group 3: Support for Trade and Employment - Targeted support for foreign trade enterprises is crucial, especially for small and medium-sized businesses facing challenges due to tariff impacts [8]. - Policies are being developed to stabilize foreign trade and employment, including tax incentives and financial support for affected companies [8][9]. Group 4: Consumer Spending and Services - Expanding service consumption is seen as a way to absorb employment pressures from foreign trade challenges, aligning with consumer trends [9]. - The government is actively promoting service consumption through various initiatives, recognizing its potential for significant growth [9]. Group 5: Liquidity Management - The issuance of special government bonds is set to peak, coinciding with a period of potential monetary policy easing, which may include interest rate cuts [10][12]. - The government is preparing for a liquidity expansion phase, with expectations of increased financial support for various sectors [12]. Group 6: Incremental Policy Adjustments - Incremental policies will be adjusted based on diplomatic relations and export performance, with a focus on enhancing consumer capacity and willingness [14][15]. - The government aims to implement policies that support specific groups, such as the unemployed and low-income families, to boost consumption [14].

Macro Economic Insights - Fiscal spending is expected to accelerate, with March public fiscal expenditure reaching 27,719 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [5] - The first quarter fiscal expenditure growth was 4.2%, slightly above the annual budget target of 4% [5] - Tax revenue showed signs of recovery, with a 4.9% increase in value-added tax in March, indicating improved industrial production and infrastructure activity [4] Industry and Company Insights - The real estate market shows potential for recovery, with a year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transaction area, supported by government policies [41][42] - The "Meituan Flash Purchase" brand has been launched as an independent entity, indicating a shift towards instant retail models, with plans to expand to over 100,000 flash warehouses by 2027 [50][51] - The coal mining sector is seeing a narrowing decline in thermal power generation, suggesting a potential recovery in coal allocation [46] Investment Opportunities - The robotics sector presents investment opportunities, particularly in the development of robotic cerebellum technology, which is crucial for complex motion control [35] - The REITs market is showing strong performance, with the index up 6.30% year-on-year, indicating a favorable environment for real estate investment trusts [46][48] - The agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, is expected to see price support due to limited supply and increased demand [9][10]