Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a significant increase in holdings, reaching 1,094.19 tons, with a daily increase of 7.72 tons, indicating strong investor interest in gold amid fluctuating prices and geopolitical tensions [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of February 24, the total holdings of SPDR Gold Trust stand at 1,094.19 tons, reflecting a substantial increase of 7.72 tons from the previous trading day [5]. - The cumulative increase in gold ETF holdings over the past week is nearly 20 tons, suggesting a growing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On February 24, spot gold prices experienced a decline, dropping to below $5,100 per ounce, closing at $5,142.45, a decrease of $85.30 or 1.63% [5]. - The recent rise in gold prices has led to profit-taking, which has contributed to the downward pressure on prices [5]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed hawkish views, indicating that interest rates should remain unchanged due to inflation concerns, which may impact gold prices [6]. - Geopolitical tensions and fluctuating tariff policies are providing support for gold prices, with recent developments in U.S. tariffs contributing to market uncertainty [6][7]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices are likely to consolidate above the $5,000 level in the short term, with potential upward movements if geopolitical tensions escalate [7]. - Technical indicators suggest that the upward trend in gold prices remains intact, with key resistance levels at $5,200, $5,249, and $5,300, while support is noted at $5,093 and $5,000 [7].

2026 年 2 月 25 日 集运指数（欧线）：震荡思路对待 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 期货研究 41 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | 期货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2604 | 1,320.6 | 6.84% | 50,698 | 34,505 | 8,660 | 1.47 | | 0.97 | | | EC2606 | 1,691.6 | 6.14% | 8,328 | 15,857 | 1,897 | 0.53 | | 0.40 | | | ec2610 | 1,168.8 | 4.05% | 2,792 | 8,726 | 795 | 0.32 | | 0.22 | | | | 本期 | | 2026 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-2-25 ⾦价⾼位回落，⽩银震荡偏强 万得数据显⽰，春节假⽇期间，外盘贵⾦属在低位震荡后出现反弹，主要 受美国经济数据分化、美伊地缘局势升级及美国关税政策变动等多重因素 ⽀撑。⽇内COMEX⾦价⾼位回落、跌幅近1%，结束此前连续四个交易⽇ 上涨态势，受投资者部分获利回吐及美元指数⼩幅反弹等压制。⽇内COM EX⽩银"V型"震荡运⾏、上涨近2%。短线来看，美国关税政策不确定 性和地缘政治⻛险升温仍对贵⾦属形成⽀撑，后续需重点关注本周26⽇将 举⾏的美伊⽇内⽡谈判、27⽇将公布的1⽉PPI数据、下周⾮农数据和中 美互动等。 黄金观点：短期有望呈现震荡偏强走势 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内COMEX金价小幅下跌，在触及5280美元/盎 司附近高位后有所回落，在5180美元/盎司附近震荡。一方面，美国 关税不确定性持续升温、美伊谈判反复及中东地缘局势对短线金价形 成支撑。美国最高法院 2 月 20 日裁定依据 IEEPA 征收的关税违法 后，特朗普随即宣布依据《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条加征 10% 全 球临时关税，并于 21 ...

当前消费者信心波动剧烈，住房负担能力挑战依旧，且美国去年的就业增长几乎停滞。在上周最高法院 推翻了总统特朗普广阔的全球征税计划后，美国的关税政策再次陷入变动之中。特朗普承诺将征收新 税，但关于税率水平、实施方式及持续时间仍存疑问。 麦克法伊尔表示，家得宝正在分析这些变化的潜在影响。他补充道，在最新声明发布之前，公司已在很 大程度上消化了关税的影响。受近期提价举措影响，今年上半年部分商品的售价将"小幅"上涨。 家得宝表示，公司赢得了更多的市场份额，同时电子商务实现了连续三个季度的两位数增长。尽管如 此，住房需求的实质性改变尚未显现。 该公司预计2026财年总销售额同比增长约2.5%至4.5%，低于此前预估的4.06%的同比增长率。同店销售 额增长预计在0%至2.0%。 首席财务官理查德.麦克法伊尔在接受采访时表示："在大型装修项目上，我们的客户已经持币观望了整 整三年。虽然房主是目前最健康的消费群体之一，但他们告诉我们，不确定性正在增加，人们对住房负 担能力和裁员风险感到担忧。" 目前住房市场出现了一些早期积极迹象：抵押贷款利率有所下降，而过去一年房价中位数保持相对持 平。麦克法伊尔表示，抵押贷款利率需要进一步 ...

出口链：关税变化利于终端销售，海外产能依然具有超额优势 对等&芬太尼关税无效最高法院宣布Trump基于《 查找图书 》（IEEPA）的全球对等关税与芬太尼关税无效。 Trump宣布2月24日执行150天税率为10%的商品临时进口关税。 政策变动对 出口链：关税变化利于终端销售，海外产能依然具有超额优势 对等&芬太尼关税无效最高法院宣布Trump基于《 查找图书 》（IEEPA）的全球对等关税与芬太尼关税无效。 Trump宣布2月24日执行150天税率为10%的商品临时进口关税。 跨境电商成本将有直接优化轻工中大件跨境电商供应链东南亚转移比例多在50%-80%之间，本次国内关税降低 10%将直接降低龙头成本。 政策变动对不同品类关税影响具差异具体看轻工家居品类东南亚关税维持25%，国内将从此前60%下降至50%，轻 工非家居品类东南亚关税将从20%下降至10%，国内将从20%+18年301关税（7.5%-25%不等），变为10%+301关 税。 终端价格利好&竞争格局稳定无论家居或非家居品类关税整体看均有所下降，对应终端价格有望下调，利于出口 需求。从竞争维度看，家居品类国内与东南亚关税差距小幅收窄（10%）， ...

值得注意的是，去年4月，中方反制美国政府宣布的"对等关税"。国泰海通证券当时指出，中美互加关 税或将加大有税和免税价差，中高端进口商品销售有望向免税渠道倾斜。此次美国关税政策被判违法， 扰动市场情绪，市场关注各国关税政策后续变化。 智通财经APP获悉，中国中免(01880)重挫逾10%，截至发稿，跌9.42%，报91.25港元，成交额3.5亿港 元。 消息面上，美国海关与边境保护局表示，将于美国东部时间周二凌晨12:01停止征收依据IEEPA开征的 关税。此前，美国最高法院已裁定这些关税非法。特朗普则表示他计划对全球实施15%的关税，因其在 最高法院遭遇挫败后急于维护其贸易议程。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Eastern Airlines Logistics reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, primarily due to the impact of tariff changes on its comprehensive logistics solutions [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 17.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2 billion yuan, down 3.2% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 5.99 billion yuan, a decline of 6.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 710 million yuan, down 9.8% [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 22%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year, driven by ground comprehensive services [2]. Business Segment Analysis - **Air Express**: Revenue reached 2.8 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, despite a 5.5% decline in the Q3 TAC freight rate index [2]. - **Ground Comprehensive Services**: Revenue was 700 million yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year [2]. - **Comprehensive Logistics Solutions**: Revenue fell to 2.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 28% year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. cancellation of the small package tax exemption policy [2]. Cost and Profitability - The company's expense ratio increased to 3.8%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising management and financial expense ratios [2]. - Other income decreased by 93% year-on-year, contributing to a slight decline in net profit margin to 11.9%, down 0.5 percentage points [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively opening new flight routes and enhancing strategic partnerships to adapt to changing tariff policies [3]. - New international cargo transport routes were successfully launched, including "Hangzhou-Taiyuan-Kuala Lumpur" and "Xi'an-Kunming-Kuala Lumpur" [3]. - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed with SF Airlines to leverage both companies' resources and capabilities for improved logistics services [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 2.6 billion, 3 billion, and 3.3 billion yuan, respectively, and continues to hold a "buy" rating [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2025, primarily due to changes in U.S. tariff policies affecting shipments to the U.S. [1] Revenue Forecast - The expected revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2025, is projected to be between RMB 700 million and RMB 900 million, representing a decrease of approximately 51% to 37% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Profitability Outlook - The company expects to incur a loss attributable to owners ranging from RMB 10 million to RMB 20 million, a reversal from a profit of approximately RMB 38 million in the same period of 2024 [1] Impairment Losses - The anticipated losses are attributed to the decrease in total revenue, an increase in impairment losses on trade and other receivables, and an increase in goodwill impairment losses from wholly-owned subsidiaries during the period compared to the previous year [1]

Group 1: Market Conditions and Challenges - The overall industry is cautious due to uncertainties from tariff policies and weak end-consumer demand, leading to short-term order pressure [2] - The global apparel industry has a mature supply chain, making it difficult to cultivate new large-scale suppliers despite increased competition from tariff changes [3] - The apparel consumption remains relatively inelastic, with strong demand for essential goods, favoring companies with strong international capabilities [3] Group 2: Company Positioning and Competitive Advantages - The company primarily serves mid-to-high-end apparel brands, offering a range of products including buttons, zippers, and other accessories, applicable across various sectors [2] - The company is one of the largest button manufacturers globally, holding approximately 20% of the domestic mid-to-high-end market [4] - The company emphasizes a "product + service" business model, focusing on quality products and comprehensive service, which differentiates it from competitors like YKK [3] Group 3: Customer Sensitivity and Product Pricing - The cost of buttons and zippers constitutes a small portion of the overall garment cost, making price sensitivity lower among downstream customers [5] - Customers increasingly prioritize suppliers' product development capabilities, delivery times, and overall service quality over pricing [5] Group 4: Production Efficiency and International Expansion - The company is enhancing its Vietnam industrial park with advanced equipment and skilled personnel, leading to improved production efficiency [6] - The Bangladesh industrial park is undergoing upgrades to align with current manufacturing standards, with a focus on increasing overseas capacity [6] - The company anticipates significant revenue growth in 2025 due to improved order trends and capacity utilization in its Vietnam facility [6] Group 5: Corporate Culture and Management Strengths - The company's core competitiveness lies in its corporate culture and experienced management team, which is grounded in sustainable development and a commitment to steady progress [7] - The management team is characterized by diligence, innovation, and strong industry insight, contributing to the company's long-term health and growth [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. Court of Appeals has temporarily suspended the previous ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court that deemed the Trump administration's tariff measures illegal, creating uncertainty in the cross-border e-commerce sector [1][2] - The Trump administration's tariff policies have significantly impacted global trade dynamics, particularly affecting the cost structure and profit margins of cross-border e-commerce businesses [2][6] - The upcoming 2025 Yiwu E-commerce Expo, scheduled for June 21-23, presents a valuable opportunity for industry players to adapt to changes and explore new business avenues [4][6] Group 2 - Yiwu, known as the "World's Small Commodity Capital," serves as a crucial hub for global small commodity trade, offering a wide range of products across various categories [6][7] - The expo will feature numerous industry forums and seminars aimed at discussing the latest trends and strategies in the cross-border e-commerce sector, particularly in light of the evolving tariff policies [6][7] - The event will facilitate face-to-face interactions between businesses and global partners, enabling them to establish new collaborations and optimize logistics to mitigate the impact of tariff changes [7][8]